To provide a short-term climatology of cold lows in and around the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin, this study constructs subjectively analyzed tracks of cold lows over a 10-year period (2007-2016) during June-October using the GOES-East satellite’s water vapor channel, which has remained at the same central wavelength and covers a 140W to 10W domain. Using these tracks, I construct mean monthly cold low frequencies and trajectories, and cold low and environmental diagnostics via model analyses. Finally, using the GOES-E satellites water vapor channel, I construct mean water vapor structure of these systems in a motion following framework created and decompose the resulting variance structures, which may provide forecaster insight and the possibility of subjectively forecasting cold low intensification and dissipation. This presentation will present these results and discuss future work including construction of a trajectory-based climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model for cold low movement and verification of numerical model forecasts of cold lows using both the tracks and the CLIPER model.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.