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Sunday, 15 April 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 15 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Monday, 16 April 2018

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Session 1A
Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.
9:00 AM
1A.3
Improving Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting for the Atlantic Basin Using Redundancy Analysis
Matthew Lee Titus, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and K. Thompson

9:15 AM
1A.4
9:30 AM
1A.5
9:45 AM
1A.6
Interannual Relationship between the Tropical SST and Summertime Anticyclone over the Western Pacific
Erh-Tung Wu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui, C. W. Lee, and P. H. Chung
Manuscript (682.9 kB)


Session 1B
African Weather and Climate I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ.
8:30 AM
Paper 1B.1 has been moved. New poster number is 117A.

9:00 AM
1B.3
9:15 AM
1B.4
9:30 AM
1B.5
Mechanisms of African Easterly Wave Genesis
Joshua Dylan White, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer

9:45 AM
1B.6

Session 1C
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) I
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA
CoChair: Nicole P. Kurkowski, NWS
8:45 AM
1C.2
Recent and Future Advances in Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP)
Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, D. Iredell, Q. Liu, B. Zhang, J. A. Sippel, B. Thomas, K. Wu, S. Abarca, and H. Winterbottom

9:00 AM
1C.3
A Description of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance
Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and A. Simon, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky

9:15 AM
1C.4
Isolating Factors for the Northward Turn Timing and Location of Hurricane Irma
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Cai, G. J. Alaka Jr., F. D. Marks Jr., L. Qi, and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

9:30 AM
1C.5
Investigation of Irma & Maria Track Forecasts Using an Ensemble Approach within Basin-Scale HWRF
Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. Zhang

9:45 AM
1C.6
Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction with an Analog Ensemble
Stefano Alessandrini, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. M. Rozoff, W. E. Lewis, and L. Delle Monache


Session 1D
Tropical Extratropical Interactions I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin
8:30 AM
1D.1
A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition
Melanie Bieli, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. L. Evans, and T. M. Hall

9:15 AM
1D.4
Ventilation and Storm Structure during Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Christian Euler, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany; and T. Kremer, M. Riemer, and E. Schömer

9:30 AM
1D.5
Evolution of Distinct Air Streams during the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Tobias Kremer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany; and M. Riemer, E. Schömer, and C. Euler

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Session 2A
Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ.
10:30 AM
2A.1
10:45 AM
2A.2
11:00 AM
2A.3
Towards a Homogenized Century-Scale Record of Atlantic Major Hurricanes
Gabriel A. Vecchi, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and C. Landsea and W. Zhang

11:15 AM
2A.4
11:45 AM
2A.6

Session 2B
African Weather and Climate II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
CoChair: Andreas Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
11:30 AM
2B.5
Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) that are Potential Candidates for Tropical Cyclogenesis
Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park,, PA; and J. L. Evans

12:00 PM
2B.7
A Synoptic Model for African Easterly Waves
Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. O. H. Russell and J. D. White


Session 2C
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) II
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD
CoChair: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
10:30 AM
2C.1
11:00 AM
2C.3
A Top-Down Pathway to Secondary Eyewall Formation in Simulated Tropical Cyclones
Bryce Tyner, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and P. Zhu, J. A. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, F. D. Marks Jr., and V. Tallapragada

11:15 AM
2C.4
Eddy Vorticity Fluxes in Rapidly Intensifying and Non-Intensifying Storms
Hua Leighton, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

11:30 AM
2C.5
Secondary Eyewalls in HWRF and HMON, Too Few? Too Many?
Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra

11:45 AM
2C.6
Can the Grell-Freitas Convective Scheme Improve HWRF?
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. M. Newman, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, G. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

12:00 PM
2C.7
Application of Machine Learning for Secondary Eyewall Formation Prediction in HWRF and HMON Models
Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada


Session 2D
Tropical Extratropical Interactions II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ.
11:15 AM
2D.4
The Meandering Margin of the Moist Meteorological Tropics
Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. S. Chung, W. Hannah, H. Masunaga, A. Wimmers, and C. S. Velden

11:30 AM
2D.5
Modulation of the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Flow and Extreme Events By the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, C. F. Baggett, K. C. Tseng, B. D. Mundhenk, S. Henderson, and B. Wolding

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Session 3A
Climate Change I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL
1:45 PM
3A.2
Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Influences on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Camargo, M. Previdi, and K. Emanuel

2:00 PM
3A.3
2:30 PM
3A.5
3:00 PM
3A.7
Increasing Frequency of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms over the Arabian Sea
Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi and S. Underwood


Session 3B
Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR
1:30 PM
3B.1
1:45 PM
3B.2
2:00 PM
3B.3
Role of Maritime Continent Topography in Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean
Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. M. Fine, P. E. Ciesielski, C. C. Wang, S. K. Ma, and R. K. Taft

2:15 PM
3B.4
Long-term Statistical Features of Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon- and Easterly-related Environments
Hsu-Feng Teng, National Taiwan Univ. and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee, H. H. Hsu, and J. Done

3:00 PM
3B.7
Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and W. Li, M. Peng, X. Jiang, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and C. Davis


Session 3C
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) III
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
CoChair: S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD
1:45 PM
3C.2
Performance of the HWRF Analog Ensemble during the HFIP 2017 Real-Time Demonstration
William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. M. Rozoff, L. Delle Monache, and S. Alessandrini

2:30 PM
3C.5
Recent and Planned Upgrades to Operational HWRF Data Assimilation
Henry Winterbottom, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Sippel, A. Mehra, B. Zhang, and Z. Zhang

2:45 PM
3C.6
Ocean Model Impact Study for Improvement of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasting
Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., P. G. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. J. Cione, J. Dong, P. J. Fitzpatrick, G. Goni, B. Jaimes, S. Jayne, B. Liu, E. Sanabia, L. K. Shay, B. Thomas, J. Zhang, L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

3:00 PM
3C.7
Limit on the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Accuracy
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and K. Keshavamurthy

3:15 PM
3C.8

Session 3D
Monsoon
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ding Ma, Harvard Univ.
CoChair: Salvatore Pascale, GFDL
2:15 PM
3D.4

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Session 4A
Climate Change II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL
4:00 PM
4A.1
Tropical Cyclone Structure and Size across Climates
Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. R. Chavas

4:15 PM
4A.2
Widening of Tropical Cyclone Scale Projected By Multi-Decadal Experiments with a 14km-Mesh Global Nonhydrostatic Model
Yohei Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Satoh, M. Sugi, C. Kodama, A. T. Noda, M. Nakano, and T. Nasuno

4:45 PM
4A.4
Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate
Chunyong Jung, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

5:00 PM
4A.5
Wind Waves from Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico
Christian M. Appendini, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mérida, Yucatan, Mexico; and R. Meza-Padilla and A. Ramirez-Manguilar

Handout (13.2 MB)

5:30 PM
4A.7
Recent Changes in the Temporal Clustering Patterns of Tropical Rainfall
Wen-wen Tung, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. C. Bowers, W. S. Cleveland, and Q. Liu

5:45 PM
4A.8A
How Unusual was the 2005 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic? A Multi-Model Analysis
Kevin J.E. Walsh, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Lavender, M. King, L. P. Caron, S. Monkiewicz, and M. P. Guishard


Session 4B
Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates
4:00 PM
4B.1
The Effects of Initial Vortex Size on Tropical Cyclogenesis and Intensification
Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

4:15 PM
4B.2
5:00 PM
4B.5
Dry and Semi-Dry Tropical Cyclones
Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. R. Chavas

5:15 PM
4B.6
The Myth That Tropical Cyclones Cannot Form Near the Equator
Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

5:30 PM
4B.7
An Investigation of the Formation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Peng and J. D. Doyle

Recording files available
Session 4C
Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Morgan E O'Neill, Univ. of Chicago
5:00 PM
4C.5
Examining the Role of Spiral Rainbands in Secondary Eyewall Formation
Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang, R. F. Rogers, P. Reasor, and R. Nystrom

5:30 PM
4C.7

Session 4D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International Univ.
4:15 PM
4D.2
Incorporating Rainfall into Storm Surge Forecasting for Hurricane Irma
Kyra Bryant, Tennessee State Univ., Nashville, TN; and A. Alghamdi, A. Musinguzi, and M. Akbar

4:30 PM
4D.3
Validation of Storm Surge and Wind for High-Intensity Hurricanes during the 2017 Season
Cristina Forbes, Olazul, LLC, Key Biscayne, FL; and C. Mattocks

4:45 PM
4D.4
5:15 PM
4D.6
Surface Wind Field Reconstructions Using a New Asymmetric Parametric Model:Application to Major Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria of 2017.
Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Clavner, S. Lorsolo, P. J. Sousounis, and S. Tolwinski-Ward

5:30 PM
4D.7
5:45 PM
4D.8

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Icebreaker
Location: Spa Lawn (Sawgrass Marriott)

Tuesday, 17 April 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Session 5A
DA & Observing Systems I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jason A. Sippel, AOML
8:15 AM
5A.2
The Quality of Observations from the Updated NCAR Dropsonde System in Severe Storms
Holger Vömel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hock, M. Goodstein, K. Young, and I. Suhr

8:45 AM
5A.4A
Gradient Non-Balance: A New Approach for the Outflow at the Top of Tropical Cyclones in Models and Observations
Yair Cohen, California Institue of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. L. Durden, N. Harnik, E. Heifetz, D. S. Nolan, D. Tao, and F. Zhang

9:00 AM
5A.5
9:30 AM
5A.7
Evaluation of a Basin-Scale Nature Run for Hurricane OSSEs
Javier Delgado, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci, K. Ryan, and R. Atlas


Session 5B
Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Timothy W. Cronin, MIT
8:15 AM
5B.2
9:30 AM
5B.7
Recent Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Its Link to Tropical Expansion
S. Sharmila, Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

9:45 AM
5B.8
Thermodynamic Constraints on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Count
Kimberly A. Hoogewind, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas, B. A. Schenkel, and M. O’Neill


Session 5C
Tropical Cyclone Structure II
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA
8:15 AM
5C.2
A Historical Analysis of the Mature Stage of Tropical Cyclones
Shuai Wang, Imperial College London, London, UK; and R. Toumi

8:30 AM
5C.3
A New Asymmetric Parametric Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Field Model
Michal Clavner, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. Lorsolo, P. J. Sousounis, S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, and E. W. Uhlhorn

9:15 AM
5C.6
9:30 AM
5C.7
9:45 AM
5C.8
Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?
Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and N. Lin, D. R. Chavas, G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and M. Oppenheimer


Session 5D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Patrick Harr, Jupiter Technologies

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Session 6A
DA & Observing Systems II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jonathan Poterjoy, NOAA
11:45 AM
6A.6

Session 6B
Operations & Landfall I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
10:45 AM
6B.2
Recent Research and Development at MRI/JMA to Improve Typhoon Forecasts
Munehiko Yamaguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and U. Shimada, M. Sawada, T. Iriguchi, and H. Owada

11:00 AM
6B.3
Have We Reached the Limits of Predictability for Hurricane Track Forecasting?
Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi

11:30 AM
6B.5
Effectively Issuing Extreme Wind Warnings (EWW) during Hurricane Maria When Observations and Radar Fails
Ernesto Rodriguez, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Carolina, PR; and R. Garcia-Hiraldo, I. Colon-Pagan, G. Lojero, and T. Washington

11:45 AM
6B.6
Real Time Interpretation of SFMR Peak Surface Wind Speeds in Intense Hurricanes as Reported by Reconnaissance Aircraft
Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland, FL; and A. Lundry, P. Flaherty, J. Parrish, I. Sears, M. Holmes, B. Belson, J. Williams, and L. Miller

12:00 PM
6B.7
Utility of GOES-16 and MRMS Operational Products for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Kristin M. Calhoun, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart and D. M. Kingfield


Session 6C
Tropical Cyclone Structure III
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research
10:30 AM
6C.1
Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts and Forecast Error Estimates for the Western North Pacific
Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. S. Goerss, J. A. Knaff, B. Strahl, E. M. Fukada, E. Serra, K. Richardson, T. Meissner, and L. Ricciardulli

Handout (1.6 MB)

10:45 AM
6C.2
Stochastic Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii
Andrew Polasky, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

11:00 AM
6C.3
The TC Diurnal Cycle: The Landfall Before the Landfall
Jason P. Dunion, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. D. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, and B. D. McNoldy

11:30 AM
6C.5
JTWC 5-Day Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Forecasting - First Year in Review
Brian Strahl, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and C. R. Sampson and J. A. Knaff


Session 6D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 III
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.
10:30 AM
6D.1
10:45 AM
6D.2
Synthesis of US and Caribbean Hurricane Impacts on a Warmer Globe
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and J. I. Hernandez
Manuscript (287.0 kB)

11:00 AM
6D.3
Understanding Damage from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Javiera I. Hernandez, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby
Manuscript (361.0 kB)

11:15 AM
6D.4
11:45 AM
6D.6
12:00 PM
6D.7
High-Resolution COAMPS-TC Ensemble Performance for the High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, P. A. Reinecke, and J. R. Moskaitis

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Session 7A
DA & Observing Systems III
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Altug Aksoy, AOML
2:00 PM
7A.3
2:45 PM
7A.6
Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts Using the Operational HWRF
Bachir Annane, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. M. Leidner, B. McNoldy, R. Atlas, S. Majumdar, and R. N. Hoffman

3:15 PM
7A.8
Assessment of a Delay-Doppler Map (DDM) Observation Operator for use in CYGNSS Data Assimilation
James L. Garrison, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. Leidner, F. Huang, B. Annane, and R. N. Hoffman


Session 7B
Operations & Landfall II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC
1:30 PM
7B.1
1:45 PM
7B.2
NHC High-resolution Storm Surge Hindcast Supporting Disaster Response
Laura Paulik, NHC, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome and W. Booth

2:30 PM
7B.5
Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Jesse Schaffer, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber and C. Evans
Manuscript (171.8 kB)

3:15 PM
7B.8
Sub-Kilometer Simulation of Landfall of Typhoon Rammasun (2014)
Wenyu Qiu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China


Session 7C
Tropical Cyclone Structure IV
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Daniel Stern, UCAR / NRL
1:30 PM
7C.1
1:45 PM
7C.2
Dynamic Characteristics of TC Boundary Layer from Doppler Wind Lidar Observations
Lisa Bucci, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and G. D. Emmitt, J. Zhang, C. O'Handley, S. Greco, and R. Atlas

2:00 PM
7C.3
Shock-like Structures in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer
Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
Manuscript (116.1 kB)

2:15 PM
7C.4
Convectively Forced Wavenumber-1 Vortex Rossby Waves in the Inner Waveguide
Israel Gonzalez III, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL
Manuscript (397.8 kB)

2:30 PM
7C.5
Convectively Coupled Linear Instability in TC-like Vortices
Jiahua Guo, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

2:45 PM
7C.6
Eyewall Tilt Viewed from a Moist Adiabatic Ascending Perspective
Yiwu Huang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Duan

3:00 PM
7C.7
Estimated In-situ Eyewall Turbulence from Aircraft Observations in the South China Sea
Nathan J Sparks, Imperial College London, London, UK; and K. K. Hon, P. W. Chan, J. C. L. Chan, and R. Toumi

3:15 PM
7C.8

Session 7D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 IV
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC
1:30 PM
7D.1
Hurricane Irma: A Study on Evacuation Decision and Social Connectedness
Jennifer M. Collins, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and R. Ersing, A. Polen, M. E. Saunders, and J. C. Senkbeil

2:00 PM
7D.3
A Gridded TCM to Support Forecast Operations at NHC and WFOs
Craig Mattocks, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Santos, C. Forbes, and C. Mello

2:15 PM
7D.4
Polarimetric Radar Analysis of Hurricane Harvey’s (2017) Record-Setting Rainfall
Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

3:00 PM
7D.7
A Review of Model Guidance for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, and A. Mehra

3:15 PM
7D.8

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Poster Session 1
NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
1
OSSE Evaluation of Global Hawk Dropsonde Sampling Strategies in a Tropical Cyclone
Brittany A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and H. Christophersen

2
Observations from a Passive Microwave Sounder on the Global Hawk: HAMSR during SHOUT and EPOCH
Mathias Schreier, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

4
Overview of the SHOUT AVAPS Dropsonde System
Terry Hock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Voemel, K. Young, and N. Potts


Poster Session 2
Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6
Should We Undertake a Global Reanalysis of Tropical Cyclones?
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Caroff, S. Delgado, C. Guard, M. P. Guishard, C. C. Hennon, J. Knaff, K. Knapp, J. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, C. Velden, and J. L. Vigh

7
10
Www.seasonalhurricanepredictions.org
Louis-Philippe Caron, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and P. J. Klotzbach and T. J. Philp

13
Trends in Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity (1951-2017)
Anna M. Trevino, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

14
Exploring Decadal Predictability of Tropical Cyclones using CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DP-LE)
Wei-Ching Hsu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang, S. Yeager, C. M. Patricola, and G. Danabasoglu

16
Very Little Evidence for a Direct Effect of Volcano Aerosols on Global Tropical Cyclone Activity
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and L. M. Polvani


Poster Session 3
Tropical Cyclone Structure
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
20
What Limits the Secondary Eyewall Formation in Intense Tropical Cyclones
Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Poster 21 has been moved. New paper number is 8C.4A

25
Diagnosis on the Characteristics of the Mesoscale Potential Vorticity in Intensity-Maintaining Tropical Cyclone
Hancheng Lu, College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Q. H. Li, X. Huang, and S. Liu

Handout (561.8 kB)

26
27
On the Role of Coriolis Forcing in the Bifurcation of Tropical Cyclone Development
Quan Wang, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and C. Kieu

28
The Role of the Boundary Layer Dynamics in Secondary Eyewall Formation
Kuan-Yu Lu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

31
A Dynamical Mechanism for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones
Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and N. Sugimoto

32
Development and Applications of a Long-term, Global Tropical Cyclone Dropsonde Dataset
Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Nguyen, E. Paltz, K. Young, H. Voemel, and T. Hock

34
40
Evolution of the Upper-Level Thermal Structure in Reanalyzed Tropical Cyclones
Louis Rivoire, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and T. Birner

44A

Poster Session 4
Climate and Large-scale Circulation
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
45
Changes in Tropical Regional Circulation Under Global Warming: The Role of Vertical Structure of Convection in Current Climate
Chao-An Chen, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. Y. Yu and C. Chou

46
A 10-Year GOES-East-Based Climatology of Cold Lows
John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

48
Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project
Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and K. A. Reed, M. Satoh, B. Stevens, S. Bony, and T. Ohno


Poster Session 5
DA & Observing Systems
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
55
Plans for Data Assimilation and Forecast Experiment with Dropsondes during T-PARCII
Kosuke Ito, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, and K. Tsuboki


Poster Session 6
High Impact Hurricanes of 2017: The Science and Impacts
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 57 has been moved. New paper number is 10D.5A

66
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Young-Kwon Lim, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, R. Kovach, A. Molod, and S. Pawson

67
Instability between the Concentric Eyewalls of Hurricane Maria (2017)
Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. P. Kossin, R. K. Taft, and W. H. Schubert

Poster 69 has been moved. New paper number 6A.2A.

70
The Evolution of Hurricane Irma's Wind Field Structure
Cassandra M Leahy, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Tallahassee, FL


Poster Session 8
Numerical Modeling
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
81
82
Global 7km Mesh Nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for Improving TYphoon Forecast (TYMIP-G7): Joaquin (2015) and Lionrock (2016) Cases
Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and A. Wada, H. Yoshimura, and R. Onishi

83
Impact of Revisions to RRTMG Cloudy Radiative Transfer on Tropical Cyclone Evolution in HWRF
John M Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and M. J. Iacono, M. K. Biswas, E. Kalina, K. M. Newman, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, E. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

Poster 86 has been moved. New paper number is 10B.7A

90
Performance of MPAS for Tropical Cyclone Prediction in 2016 and 2017 Seasons
Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych, C. Davis, and B. Skamarock

Handout (5.0 MB)

91
Sensitivity of HWRF Simulations to Parameter Variations in the Grell-Freitas Convection Scheme
Evelyn D. Grell, CIRES/ESRL/PSD, DTC, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, G. A. Grell, E. Kalina, K. M. Newman, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

92
Fostering Community Involvement in the Advancement of Physical Parameterizations for the NCEP Global Model
Ligia Bernardet, CU/CIRES at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, L. Nance, B. Kuo, V. Tallapragada, M. Farrar, F. Toepfer, and G. A. Grell

94
Probabilistic Forecasts of Cyclone-induced Hazards within SPICY Project
Hubert Quetelard, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde, France; and F. Bonnardot, S. Lecacheux, and M. D. Leroux

Handout (1.6 MB)


Poster Session 9
Operations & Landfall
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
96
A Baseline Storm Surge Ensemble Methodology for Pacific Islands – the PACSURGE System
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. R. Sampson, Y. Lau, and J. A. Knaff

100
Further Improvement in the SHIPS Using Rainfall and Structural Features
Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, and M. DeMaria


Poster Session 10
Climate Change
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
105
106
Contribution of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific
Jiuwei Zhao, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology; Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI
Manuscript (39.0 kB)

107
Is Climate Change Redefining the Speed Limit of Tropical Cyclones?
Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, and H. Murakami

108
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer Seas
Jill C. Trepanier, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA


Poster Session 11
African Weather and Climate
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
117
The African Easterly Jet: Structure and Effect on Easterly Wave Development
Amana Hosten, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson

Handout (2.8 MB)


Poster Session 12
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
119
Forecast Challenges for the Hurricane Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) Model
Anu Simon, Cyberdata Technologies Inc., Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, D. R. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky

123
HWRF Development Constrains by Storm Sample Choice
Kevin J. Dougherty, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, D. T. Kleist, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

127
A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclones under the Influence of Terrain
Hao-Yan Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Handout (2.3 MB)

128
Improved Intensity Prediction in COAMPS-TC
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, J. R. Moskaitis, S. Chen, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, P. A. Reinecke, S. Wang, D. R. Ryglicki, and D. P. Stern

130
Impact of Different Ocean Conditions Present in the Bay of Bengal on Coupled TC Intensity Prediction
Shyama Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, India; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., S. G. Gopalakrishnan, J. Dong, H. S. Kim, F. D. Marks Jr., and U. C. Mohanty

131
Topology-Based Visualization and Tracking of Hurricane Inner Core Features in HWRF and HMON Models
Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, S. Abarca, Z. Zhang, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra

133
Toward High Horizontal and Vertical Resolution Convection Resolving Modeling in Operational Hurricane Forecasting
Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, S. Abarca, W. Wang, Q. Liu, K. Wu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada


Poster Session 13
Tropical Cyclogenesis
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
135
Birth of the Biscane
Michael Maier-Gerber, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and F. Pantillon, E. Di Muzio, M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz

136
Why Are There Approximately 100 Tropical Cyclones Annually on Earth?
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and T. A. Vu and D. R. Chavas

137
141
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, A. B. Schumacher, J. H. Cossuth, K. D. Musgrave, and P. Leighton

142
Do Easterly Waves Matter for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis?
Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. D. White and J. O. H. Russell

147
Environmental Flow Patterns of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the western North Pacific
Yoshida Ryuji, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan; and F. Hironori

Handout (438.6 kB)


Poster Session 14
Tropical Extratropical Interactions
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
149
Subseasonal Variability of Rossby Wave Breaking and Its Impacts on Tropical Cyclones during the North Atlantic Warm Season
Weiwei Li, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, G. Zhang, M. S. Peng, S. Benjamin, and M. Zhao

150
153

Poster Session 15
Tropical Waves Posters
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 155 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.4A.

158
Tropical Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific
Liang Wu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Wen, R. Wu, and R. Huang

5:30 PM-6:45 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


CYGNSS and TROPICS: NASA SmallSat Missions to Probe Tropical Cyclones
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan
Speakers: William J. Blackwell, MIT Lincoln Laboratory; Jason P. Dunion, AOML; Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan; Felix C. Seidel, NASA/MSFC; James Doyle, NRL

7:15 PM-9:15 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Workshop
GOES-R Series Workshop: Tropical Applications for Users
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Janel R. Thomas, Science and Technology Corporation
CoChair: Michael J. Folmer, CICS
Speakers: Michael Stringer, NOAA/NESDIS; Janel R. Thomas, Science and Technology Corporation; Michael J. Folmer, CICS; Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.; John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

Wednesday, 18 April 2018

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Session 8A
Tropical Waves
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma
8:00 AM
8A.1
8:30 AM
8A.3
Synoptic-Scale Waves in Sheared Background Flow over the Western North Pacific
Tao Feng, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and R. Huang, X. Q. Yang, W. Zhou, L. Wu, and D. Yang
Manuscript (2.1 MB)

9:15 AM
8A.6

Session 8B
Numerical Modeling I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School
8:15 AM
8B.2
Météo-France New NWP Models in Tropical Regions
Ghislain Faure, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and P. Chambon and C. Lebeaupin Brossier

8:30 AM
8B.3
Evaluation of the Performance of the GFDL FV3 Forecast Model on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Prediction
Morris A. Bender, Princeton Univ. AOS, Princeton, NJ; and A. Hazelton, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

8:45 AM
8B.4
An Evaluation of Surface Wind Structure Forecasts from the fvGFS and Operational Dynamical Models
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, A. Hazelton, and S. J. Lin

9:00 AM
8B.5
Direct Verification of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Mike Fiorino, CIRES, Boulder, CO

9:15 AM
8B.6
9:30 AM
8B.7
3-km Nested fvGFS Forecasts of 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Andrew Hazelton, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and L. Harris, S. J. Lin, M. A. Bender, and M. J. Morin

9:45 AM
8B.8
Tropical Cyclone Prediction Skill and MJO Dependence in the S2S Dataset
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, and M. K. Tippett


Session 8C
Tropical Cyclone Structure V
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ.
8:15 AM
8C.2
Double Warm-Core Structure of Typhoon Lan (2017) as Observed through Upper-Tropospheric Aircraft Reconnaissance during T-PARCII
Hiroyuki Yamada, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan; and K. Tsuboki, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Ito, M. Yamaguchi, and T. Nakazawa

8:30 AM
8C.3
Analyzing the Thermodynamic Impact of Shear on Tropical Cyclones using Dropsondes
Emily Paltz, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and L. Nguyen, R. F. Rogers, and J. Zawislak
Manuscript (618.0 kB)

8:45 AM
8C.4A
A Direct Observation study on the Horizontal Helical Rolls in the Typhoon Boundary Layer
Jie Tang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration, PRC, Shanghai, China; and P. W. Chan and X. Lei

9:15 AM
8C.6
9:45 AM
8C.8
The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle in CM1 Using an Ensemble Approach
Sarah Dunn Ditchek, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari, R. G. Fovell, and K. L. Corbosiero
Manuscript (777.7 kB)


Session 8D
NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jason P. Dunion, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, NOAA/AOML/HRD
CoChair: Gary A. Wick, NOAA-OAR, Earth Systems Research Laboratory
8:00 AM
8D.1
8:15 AM
8D.2
The High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) on the Global Hawk for TC Reconnaissance: Observations during the SHOUT Campaign
Shannon T. Brown, JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and B. Lambrigtsen, M. Schreier, B. H. Lim, I. Ramos, and A. Tanner

8:30 AM
8D.3A
8:45 AM
8D.4
Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts
Hui Christophersen, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and S. Aberson

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Session 9A
Climate and Large-Scale Circulation
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Liguang Wu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology
CoChair: James Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
10:30 AM
9A.1
Patterns of North Atlantic Decadal Variability and Hurricane Intensity Change
James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and M. Ting, S. Camargo, and K. Emanuel

10:45 AM
9A.2
11:30 AM
9A.5
11:45 AM
9A.6
Energetic Constraints and the ITCZ in Idealized Simulations with a Seasonal Cycle
Ho-Hsuan Wei, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni


Session 9B
Numerical Modeling II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office
10:45 AM
9B.2
Evaluating Tropical Cyclones Simulated by a Global Convection-Permitting Model.
K. Ryder Fox, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and F. Judt and D. Ahijevych

11:00 AM
9B.3
How Well Can the Met Office Unified Model Predict Tropical Cyclones?
Christopher Short, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and J. Petch and S. Webster

11:15 AM
9B.4
Tropical Cyclones in the Global 8.5km GFDL fvGFS
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Zhou, L. M. Harris, and S. Rees

11:30 AM
9B.5
Tropical Cyclones and Resolution Sensitivity in HighResMIP GCMs
Malcolm J. Roberts, UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK; and P. L. Vidale, K. Hodges, L. P. Caron, R. Haarsma, E. Scoccimarro, and A. Bellucci


Session 9C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity I: External Influences
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, NCAR
11:30 AM
9C.5
Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models
Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, D. Kim, Y. Moon, M. Bosilovich, H. Murakami, K. A. Reed, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao

11:45 AM
9C.6
12:00 PM
9C.7A

Session 9D
Boundary Layer UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Joseph J. Cione, NOAA
Cochairs: Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami; George H. Bryan, NCAR
10:30 AM
9D.1
Coyote UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017)
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, K. Ryan, J. A. Zhang, B. A. Dahl, E. A. Kalina, E. J. Dumas Jr., R. J. Dobosy, G. H. Bryan, A. Farber, C. Troudt, B. Kent, B. B. Baker, M. S. Buban, R. Wiggins, T. R. Lee, F. D. Marks, G. deBoer, C. Fairall, B. W. Klotz, H. Holbach, J. Zawislak, and G. R. Halliwell Jr.

10:45 AM
9D.2
A First Look at Turbulence Intensity at Low Altitude in the Eyewall of a Hurricane from Coyote small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (sUAS)
Ronald J. Dobosy, NOAA and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN; and E. J. Dumas Jr., G. H. Bryan, E. A. Kalina, J. A. Zhang, C. Troudt, A. Farber, J. J. Cione, C. B. Baker, T. R. Lee, A. Aksoy, M. K. Biswas, G. de Boer, B. A. Dahl, C. Fairall, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, F. D. Marks, K. Ryan, R. Wiggins, and J. Zawislak

11:00 AM
9D.3
Using Coyote UAS Observations to Evaluate Large-Eddy Simulations (and Vice Versa)
George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Aksoy, B. Baker, J. J. Cione, B. A. Dahl, G. de Boer, R. J. Dobosy, E. Dumas, C. Fairall, A. Farber, G. R. Halliwell Jr., E. A. Kalina, B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, T. R. Lee, F. Marks, K. Ryan, C. Troudt, R. Wiggins, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang

11:15 AM
9D.4
A Data Impact Study Using Coyote UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017)
Altug Aksoy, AOML, Miami, FL; and B. A. Dahl, R. Wiggins, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. R. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, F. D. Marks Jr., and H. Holbach

11:30 AM
9D.5
Improving Coyote UAS Tropical Cyclone Sampling Strategies in an OSSE
Brittany A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, R. Wiggins, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. A. Kalina, J. Zhang, H. Holbach, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. R. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, and F. D. Marks Jr.

11:45 AM
9D.6
Impact of Ensemble-Based Targeting for Coyote UAS Observations in an OSSE
Rani Wiggins, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Dahl, A. Aksoy, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. R. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, F. D. Marks Jr., and H. Holbach

12:00 PM
9D.7
Using Conventional Observations and Coyote UAS Data to Evaluate the Grell-Freitas Cumulus Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System
Evan A. Kalina, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and E. Grell, M. K. Biswas, G. A. Grell, K. M. Newman, J. J. Cione, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, J. Frimel, A. Aksoy, B. B. Baker, G. H. Bryan, B. A. Dahl, G. de Boer, R. J. Dobosy, E. J. Dumas Jr., C. W. Fairall, A. Farber, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, T. R. Lee, K. Ryan, C. Troudt, R. Wiggins, R. Worsnop, J. Zawislak, and J. A. Zhang

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Session 10A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech; Charles Jones, Univ. of California
1:30 PM
10A.1
Dependence of MJO Phase Speed on Background Flow
Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. M. Setzenfand

1:45 PM
10A.2
2:00 PM
10A.3
Unified Spectrum of Tropical Rainfall and Waves in a Simple Stochastic Model
Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Hottovy

2:30 PM
10A.5
A Study of Moisture Budget of Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool
Ching-Shu Hung, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui and W. T. Chen

2:45 PM
10A.6
The MJO in the Navy Earth System Model: An Overview of Predictive Skill and Impacts
Matthew Adam Janiga, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. Reynolds

3:15 PM
10A.8
The Madden-Julian Oscillation's Influence on Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. C. J. Oliver, C. J. Schreck III, M. M. Bell, and S. G. Bowen


Session 10B
Numerical Modeling III
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Fiorino, NOAA
2:00 PM
10B.3
Large Eddy Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Evolution
Liguang Wu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

2:15 PM
10B.4
Evaluation and Modification of a TKE-based PBL Scheme in HMON
Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

3:15 PM
10B.8
Impact of Differences in Initial Conditions on Rapid Intensification Forecasting for NCEP Hurricane Models
Lin Zhu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, Q. Liu, W. Wang, K. Wu, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada


Session 10C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity II: Rapid Intensification
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany
1:30 PM
10C.1
The Role of Downshear Reformation in the Rapid Intensification of a Tropical Cyclone
Xiaomin Chen, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang, J. Fang, and M. Xue

2:00 PM
10C.3
The Diurnal Variation of Deep Convective Cells in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Rapid Intensification
Jaedeok Lee, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu
Manuscript (282.4 kB)

2:15 PM
10C.4
The Role of the WISHE Mechanism in Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones
Chieh-Jen Cheng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu
Manuscript (653.6 kB)

2:30 PM
10C.5
Impacts of SST Patterns on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)
Sachie Kanada, Nagoya Univ., Nagoya, Japan; and S. Tsujino, H. Aiki, M. K. Yoshioka, Y. Miyazawa, K. Tsuboki, and I. Takayabu

3:15 PM
10C.8
An Analysis of Hurricane Edouard SST Sensitivity Runs By HWRF in a Neutral-Shear Environment
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and J. Dong, Y. Lau, H. S. Kim, L. Zhu, and A. Mehra


Session 10D
TC Remote Sensing I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Haiyan Jiang, Florida International Univ.; Derrick Herndon, Univ. of Wisconsin
1:30 PM
10D.1
A Global Tropical Cyclone Eye Climatology from HURSAT B1
Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and C. S. Velden and A. Wimmers

2:00 PM
10D.3
Ocean Surface Stress Under Tropical Cyclones Observed from Space
W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie and W. Tang

2:15 PM
10D.4
A Moisture In-Flux Storm Tool for Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting
Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. L. Beven

2:30 PM
10D.5A
GOES-16: A Game Changer for Hurricane Forecasting
Michael Stringer, NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD

2:45 PM
10D.6
A Satellite-based Analysis of Mid-Tropospheric Humidity and Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Brian J. Soden, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. S. Chung, D. Yeomans, and J. H. Cossuth

3:00 PM
10D.7
GOES-16 ABI & GLM L2+ Product Operational Status
Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Seybold, J. Daniels, E. M. Kline, and T. Feroli

3:15 PM
10D.8

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Session 11A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy; Paul Roundy, SUNY
4:00 PM
11A.1
4:15 PM
11A.2
A Unified Moisture Mode Framework for Seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Xianan Jiang, Univ. of California, Pasadena, CA; and Á. F. Adames, M. Zhao, E. D. Maloney, and D. E. Waliser

4:30 PM
11A.3
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Mean Global Easterly Winds
Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs and D. J. Raymond

5:00 PM
11A.5
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations in the MJO Skeleton Model with Observation-Based Forcing
H. Reed Ogrosky, Virginia Commonwealth Univ., Richmond, VA; and S. N. Stechmann and A. J. Majda

5:30 PM
11A.7

Session 11B
Catastrophe Modeling
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter Wolf, NOAA/NWS
4:30 PM
11B.3
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Hindcasting Using ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System
Nadia Bloemendaal, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands; and S. Muis, R. Haarsma, M. Irazoqui Apecechea, M. Verlaan, H. de Moel, P. J. Ward, and J. C. J. H. Aerts

4:45 PM
11B.4
What Value do Natural Coastlines have in Reducing Hurricane Storm Surge Risk?
Siddarth Narayan, Univ. of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA; and M. W. Beck, P. S. Wilson, C. J. Thomas, A. Guerrero, C. C. Shepard, B. G. Reguero, G. E. Franco, J. C. Ingram, and D. Trespalacios

5:00 PM
11B.5
Sensitivity Analysis of Upwind Fetches for More Accurate Effective Roughness in Landfalling Hurricanes
Sylvie Lorsolo, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Clavner, P. J. Sousounis, S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, and E. W. Uhlhorn

5:15 PM
11B.6

Session 11C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity III: Boundary Layer Processes
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
4:15 PM
11C.2
5:15 PM
11C.6
A Prognostic Axisymmetric Balance Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and H. H. Bui

5:30 PM
11C.7

Session 11D
TC Remote Sensing II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin; Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS
4:00 PM
11D.1
The Naval Research Laboratory Tropical Cyclone Webpage (NRL TC Web): Providing Real-Time Storm Monitoring for 20 Years
Joshua H. Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Richardson, M. L. Surratt, R. L. Bankert, C. R. Sampson, J. Kent, and J. D. Hawkins

4:45 PM
11D.4
5:15 PM
11D.6A
Climatology of Precipitation Types in Tropical Cyclones Using Version 7 of the TRMM PR 2A23 Product
Cheng Tao, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

5:45 PM
11D.8
Hurricane Boundary Layer Wind Profiles Estimated From Satellite SAR Images
Ralph C. Foster, APL, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. A. Zhang and P. G. Black

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Reception
Location: Sawgrass Pool (Sawgrass Marriott)

Thursday, 19 April 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Session 12A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO III
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Daehyun Kim, Univ. of Washington; Ángel F. Adames, GFDL
8:00 AM
12A.1
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the West Pacific Warm Pool
David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs

8:30 AM
12A.3
8:45 AM
12A.4A
9:00 AM
12A.5A
On the Relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Hadley and Walker Circulations
Juliane Schwendike, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and G. J. Berry, K. Fodor, and M. J. Reeder

9:15 AM
12A.6
Topography, Diurnal Cycle and the MJO in the Maritime Continent
Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and H. Tan and B. S. Barrett

9:45 AM
12A.8
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Lindsey N. Long, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD


Session 12B
TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI field campaign I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: James Doyle, NRL; Patrick A. Harr, Jupiter Technology
8:15 AM
12B.2
8:30 AM
12B.3
Potential Vorticity Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. Martinez, J. D. Doyle, and R. F. Rogers

8:45 AM
12B.4A
On the Hypothesized Outflow Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and J. Persing and R. K. Smith

9:30 AM
12B.7
Multi-Scale Sensitivity and Predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Holdaway, W. A. Komaromi, J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke, and C. M. Amerault


Session 12C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV: Axisymmetric Dynamics
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Brian Tang, SUNY
8:00 AM
12C.1
Exploring the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Emanuel, M. K. Biswas, E. A. Hendricks, and C. M. Rozoff

8:30 AM
12C.3
Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensification of a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone
Jing Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, China, Beijng, China

8:45 AM
12C.4
9:15 AM
12C.6
Hurricane Maximum Intensity Stability
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and Q. Wang

9:45 AM
12C.8

Session 12D
Convection I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California; Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT
8:00 AM
12D.1
Convective Process Experiment (CPEX) 2017
Shuyi S Chen, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. J. Zipser

8:15 AM
12D.2
8:30 AM
12D.3
Re-examining the Non-Linear Moisture-Precipitation Relationship in SSM/I Version 7
Stephanie S. Rushley, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, C. Bretherton, and M. S. Ahn

8:45 AM
12D.4
Analysis of the Temperature Structures Associated with Tropical Precipitation
Meri Virman, Univ. of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; and M. Bister, V. A. Sinclair, H. Järvinen, and J. Räisänen

9:15 AM
12D.6
Evaluating Lagrangian Model Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Metrics for Balanced Dynamics
Sharon Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and K. R. Fox, S. Sentic, and P. T. Haertel

9:45 AM
12D.8
Impact of Saharan Dust Aerosols on Convections over the Tropical East Atlantic Ocean
Yongsheng Chen, York Univ., Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Mamun and J. Liang

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Session 13A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO IV
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State Univ.; Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology
10:45 AM
13A.2
11:00 AM
13A.3
Planetary Scale Intraseasonal Disturbances
Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

11:30 AM
13A.5
11:45 AM
13A.6
Impact of the Boreal Summer Quasi-biweekly Oscillation on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
Haikun Zhao, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

12:00 PM
13A.7
Experimental Subseasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation
Baoqiang Xiang, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin


Session 13B
TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI field campaign II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC; Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL
10:30 AM
13B.1
11:00 AM
13B.3
11:30 AM
13B.5
Use of TCI-15 Datasets to Demonstrate New-Generation Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Improved Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Russell L. Elsberry, Univ. Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO; and E. A. Hendricks, C. S. Velden, M. M. Bell, M. S. Peng, E. DeLap, and A. Zhao

11:45 AM
13B.6

Session 13C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity V: Three-Dimensional Dynamics
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA
10:30 AM
13C.1
The Role of Vorticity Aggregation in the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)
Sam Hardy, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and J. Schwendike, C. E. Birch, and R. K. Smith

10:45 AM
13C.2
Isentropic Analysis on the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Juan Fang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and O. Pauluis and F. Zhang

11:30 AM
13C.5
Multi-Scale Asymptotics for Strongly Tilted Tropical Vortices
Rupert Klein, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany

11:45 AM
13C.6
Paper 13C.7 has been withdrawn.


Session 13D
Convection II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California; Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT
10:30 AM
13D.1
10:45 AM
13D.2
Simulating Convective Self-Aggregation in a Shallow Water Model
Da Yang, Univ. of California, Davis, CA

11:15 AM
13D.4
A Spectral Budget for the Size of Convective Self-Aggregation
Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. W. Cronin and K. Emanuel

11:30 AM
13D.5
Convective Cold Pool Responses to Changes in Sea-Surface Temperature
Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever

12:00 PM
13D.7
Cloud Regimes As Phase Transitions
Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Hottovy

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Session 14A
Bill Gray Session: Up Moist, Down Dry
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Fiorino, NOAA
1:30 PM
14A.1
1:45 PM
14A.2
2:00 PM
14A.3
Tropical Cyclone Composite Studies - A Gray Area
Matthew D. Eastin, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC

2:15 PM
14A.4
In-up-and-out — William M. Gray’s Contribution and Legacy to Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Characteristics
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and J. A. Knaff

2:30 PM
14A.5
Tropical Cyclone Movement - Bill Gray's Contributions
Johnny C. L. Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and R. L. Elsberry

2:45 PM
14A.6
3:00 PM
14A.7
3:15 PM
14A.8

Session 14B
TC Rainbands & Precip I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Cheng-Ku Yu, National Taiwan Univ.; Michael Bell, NCAR
1:30 PM
14B.1
1:45 PM
14B.2
Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Distribution from Satellite Observations
Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Modi, T. R. Whitcomb, K. A. Richardson, and J. H. Cossuth

2:00 PM
14B.3
2:15 PM
14B.4
Using GOES-16 to Analyze and Verify Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in Non-Radar Regions
Michael J. Folmer, CICS, College Park, MD; and M. L. Bozeman, R. J. Kuligowski, H. D. Cobb III, and N. A. Ramos


Session 14C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VI: Impacts of Vertical Shear
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Penn State Univ.
1:45 PM
14C.2
The Relationship Between Observed Thermodynamic and Precipitation Properties During Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change
Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, L. Nguyen, G. R. Alvey III, and E. Zipser

2:15 PM
14C.4
Vortex Structural Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Moderate Vertical Shear
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Nguyen, P. Reasor, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang

3:15 PM
14C.8

Session 14D
Convection III
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Da Yang, Univ. of California
2:30 PM
14D.5
FiTT or FAT? Anvil Clouds and the Tropopause in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium
Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps and N. Jeevanjee

3:00 PM
14D.7

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Poster Session 16
Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
164
Real-Time Convection Permitting Forecasts for the Maritime Continent Using the Unified Model.
Stuart Webster, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and C. Short and A. Hartley

Poster 165 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.5A.

Poster 166 has been moved. New paper number is 15A.10A.

170
Role of Topography on the MJO in the Maritime Continent
Haochen Tan, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray


Poster Session 17
Air-sea interaction
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
174
Ocean Surface Wave Impacts on SFMR Measurements in Tropical Cyclones
Heather M. Holbach, Florida State Univ., Northern Gulf Institute, and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and I. PopStefanija, B. W. Klotz, and M. A. Bourassa

176
WSRA Measurements of Ocean Directional Wave Spectra and Sea Surface Mean Square Slope
Ivan PopStefanija, ProSensing Inc., Amherst, MA; and N. Slavich, E. J. Walsh, and C. W. Fairall

Handout (759.6 kB)

177
Investigating the Effects of Sea Spray on Surface Wind Stress and Waves under Hurricane Conditions
Renee Richardson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and S. L. Morey

178
The Impact of Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation on Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim, S. G. Penny, A. Mehra, W. Wang, L. Zhu, and V. Tallapragada


Poster Session 18
Boundary Layer UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
181
Evaluation of Hurricane Maria Boundary Layer Structure in HWRF Using UAS Coyote and NOAA P-3 Aircraft Observations
Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang, G. H. Bryan, J. J. Cione, E. Kalina, A. Aksoy, B. A. Dahl, A. Farber, B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. Dumas, B. Baker, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. Troudt, C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, and R. J. Dobosy

182
The Boundary Layer Structure of Hurricane Maria (2017) from a Combination of NOAA P3 Aircraft and UAS Coyote Observations
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, G. H. Bryan, R. Dobosy, J. Zawislak, B. A. Dahl, K. Ryan, A. Aksoy, E. Kalina, L. K. Shay, B. Jaimes, F. D. Marks Jr., E. J. Dumas Jr., R. Worsnop, G. de Boer, C. W. Fairall, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Baker, and B. Kent


Poster Session 19
Catastrophe Modeling
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
187

Poster Session 20
Convection
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
188
Lightning Correlation with Environmental Variables Using the TRMM LIS
Montana Etten-Bohm, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

189
HAMSR Observations during CPEX
Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. Schreier and S. T. Brown

196
Machine Tuning of Entrainment Rates in an Extended EDMF Scheme: Toward a Unified Parameterization of Shallow and Deep Convection
Yair Cohen, California Institue of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Lan, C. M. Kaul, Z. Tan, K. G. Pressel, T. Schneider, and J. Teixeira


Poster Session 21
Hazard Communication
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 201 has been moved. New paper number 16B.2A.

202
An Experimental Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI)
Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

203
204
Preserving, Archiving, and Displaying Airborne Datasets at NOAA / AOML’s Hurricane Research Division
Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. Holbach, B. W. Klotz, F. Marks, and S. Murillo


Poster Session 22
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
208
The Gill-Matsuno: Is It a Good Model for the MJO?
Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. Kacimi

211
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction in the Navy Earth System Model
Matthew Adam Janiga, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. Reynolds

Poster 212 has been moved. New paper number is 12A.5A.

Poster 213 has been moved. New paper number 12A.4A.

214
Analysis of the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation in the Indian Ocean Using Surface Winds from Composite Satellite Data
Heather Roman-Stork, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa

217
Sub-seasonal Predictability of Large-scale Atmospheric Parameters in the Tropical Atlantic Basin
Kurt Hansen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman and S. J. Majumdar

218
A Coherent Image of Teleconnections Across the Globe Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and S. C. van den Heever

221
QBO/Solar Modulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation: A Composite Analysis
Malori Redman, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and L. L. Hood and T. J. Galarneau Jr.


Poster Session 23
TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI Field Campaign
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
225
Environmental Factors and Internal Processes Contributing to Interrupted Rapid Decay of Hurricane Joaquin
Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and A. C. Jorgensen, R. L. Elsberry, C. Velden, M. S. Jordan, and R. Creasey

Poster 226 has been moved. New paper number 12B.5A

227

Poster Session 24
TC Rainbands & Precip
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
229
Comparative Analysis of TC Rainstorm Induced by Cold Air Intrusion of Two TC Cases
Shunan Yang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

232
A New Technique for Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
Fumin Ren Sr., Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), Beijing, China

Handout (1.1 MB)

233
Thermodynamic and Kinematic Properties of Isolated Convective Cells in the Rainband Region of Atlantic Hurricanes
Wesley D. Terwey, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and P. Barlow and S. Sangster

237

Poster Session 25
TC Remote Sensing
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 243 has been moved. New paper number is 13B.2A.

244
GOES-16: Much Improved "Glasses" to View the Tropics
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. B. Schumacher, J. A. Knaff, M. J. Folmer, T. Olander, D. T. Lindsey, S. D. Miller, S. M. Griffin, J. P. Dunion, M. DeMaria, M. J. Brennan, and J. L. Beven

247
The UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) - Current Status and Future Upgrades
Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden

Handout (4.9 MB)

249
NASA TROPICS Earth Venture Mission: Payload Characteristics and Data Products
R. Vincent Leslie, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Blackwell, S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, L. Gumley, T. Greenwald, D. Herndon, and G. Chirokova

Handout (7.7 MB)

251
Hurricane Intensity and Wind Structure Estimation: from AMSU to TROPICS
Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, S. Longmore, and J. F. Dostalek

Poster 252 has been moved. New paper number is 11D.6A.


Poster Session 26
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
259
fvGFS Forecasts of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Matthew (2016)
Andrew Hazelton, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and L. Harris and S. J. Lin

261
Water Budget and Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific
Si Gao, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Zhai, B. Chen, and T. Li

265
The Impacts of the Basic Potential Vorticity Profiles on the Stability of Shallow-Water Vortices
Wei Zhong, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Liu

Handout (550.3 kB)

268
Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction in Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Zongyao Yang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

Handout (1.1 MB)

270
Intensification of Strongly Tilted Tropical Vortices Through Asymmetric Diabatic Heating
Tom Doerffel, Free Univ. Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and A. Papke, R. Klein, and P. K. Smolarkiewicz

Poster 272 has been moved. New paper number is 10B.2A.

277
The Role of Boundary Layer Friction on Tropical Cyclogenesis and Subsequent Intensification
Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and R. K. Smith

Poster 278 has been moved. New paper number 12B.4A.

283
The Phenomenal Intensification of Hurricane Maria (2017)
Kathy-Ann Caesar, Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Bridgetown, Barbados; and A. Sealy, R. Chewitt, M. Mayers-Als, C. Brathwaite, and S. Whitehall

286
Analysis of Moist Potential Vorticity of Two Similar Super Typhoons Affecting South China
Duan Peng, Zhaoqing Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Province, Zhaoqing, China

Handout (4.1 MB)

288
A Forced, Balanced Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert

289
Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models
Yumin Moon, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, S. J. Camargo, A. A. Wing, A. H. Sobel, M. G. Bosilovich, H. Murakami, K. A. Reed, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao

5:30 PM-6:45 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Community Forum on Airborne Hurricane Datasets
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD; Heather Holbach, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Florida State Univ., and the Northern Gulf Institute; Jason Dunion, AOML
Panelists: Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC; Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ.; Jason Sippel, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC; Chris Davis, NCAR; Deborah K. Smith, Univ. of Alabama; Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center; Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD; Holger Voemel, NCAR

7:15 PM-9:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Plenary Session
Bill Gray Symposium - Evening Edition
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.
7:15 PM
PL.1
Diurnal Circulation Adjustment and Organized Deep Convection
James H. Ruppert Jr., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and C. Hohenegger

7:30 PM
Remarks about Bill Gray by Sarah Gray

7:45 PM
PL.3
On Maximum Potential Intensification Rate (MPIR) of a Tropical Cyclone: An Observational Perspective
Yuqing Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, Beijng, China; and J. Xu

8:00 PM
PL.4
The Energy Tube
Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Friday, 20 April 2018

7:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Session 15A
Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Chidong Zhang, PMEL; Sue Chen, NRL
8:00 AM
15A.1
Overview of the YMC-Sumatra 2017
Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and S. Yokoi, S. Mori, T. Nasuno, U. Haryoko, F. Syamsudin, and K. Richards

8:15 AM
15A.2
Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Around Western Coast of Sumatra Island Observed during Pre-YMC and YMC-Sumatra2017 Field Campaigns
Satoru Yokoi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and S. Mori, M. Katsumata, B. Geng, K. Yasunaga, F. Syamsudin, N. Nurhayati, and K. Yoneyama

8:45 AM
15A.4
Diurnal, Synoptic, and Intraseasonal Rain Statistics from Ground and Space-Borne Radar over the Maritime Continent
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. Funk, R. Adriyanto, I. H. Umam, A. Ali, and N. Nurhayati

9:00 AM
15A.5
Drastic Thickening of the Barrier Layer Off the Western Coast of Sumatra Due to the Madden Julian Oscillation Passage during the Pre-Years of the Maritime Continent Campaign
Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Ando, and T. Hasegawa

9:15 AM
15A.6
9:45 AM
15A.8
Tropical Intraseasonal Weather Analysis in December 2016
Shih-Pei Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and W. T. Chen and C. H. Sui

10:00 AM
15A.9
10:15 AM
15A.10A

Session 15B
TC Rainbands & Precip II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: C.-C. Wu, National Taiwan Univ.; Daniel Stern, UCAR / NRL
8:15 AM
15B.2
8:30 AM
15B.3
8:45 AM
15B.4
The Unconventional Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) of Hurricane Ophelia (2005)
Naufal Razin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

9:00 AM
Paper 15B.5 has been moved. New poster number is 229A.

9:45 AM
15B.8
10:00 AM
15B.9
How Well Does the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction System Forecast West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Precipitation?
Simon C. Peatman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK; and N. P. Klingaman and K. Hodges

10:15 AM
15B.10
Analysis of the Rainfall Mechanisms in Two Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Difei Deng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and E. A. Ritchie


Session 15C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VII: Observations
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC; Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:00 AM
15C.2
8:15 AM
15C.3
The Formation and Evolution of Convective Bursts in Hurricanes: An Observational Study
Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield, R. F. Rogers, P. Reasor, and S. T. Brown

9:00 AM
15C.6
Tropical Cyclone Passive Microwave Intensity Estimation (PMW-IE) Model
Haiyan Jiang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL

9:15 AM
15C.7
A New Asymmetry Parameter for Tropical Cyclones
Kelvin Sai-cheong Ng, The Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and M. H. Lee and Y. Zong

9:30 AM
15C.8
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
Manil Maskey, MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil, R. Ramachandran, and J. Miller

9:45 AM
15C.9
New Developments in Crowd Sourcing Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates
Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and C. Ihnat, R. C. Loder, K. R. Knapp, and C. J. Schreck III

10:00 AM
15C.10

Session 15D
Air-Sea Interaction I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD; Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
8:15 AM
15D.2
Extension of the Prognostic Model of Sea Surface Temperature to Rain-Induced Cool and Freshwater Lenses
Hugo Bellenger, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka-city, Japan; and K. Drushka, W. E. Asher, G. Reverdin, M. Katsumata, and M. Watanabe

8:30 AM
15D.3
Parameterizing Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Induced by Tropical Cyclones
XIN LIU, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. L. Zhang

9:45 AM
15D.8
Harmonic Analysis of SFMR Off-Nadir Brightness Temperature Measurements in Tropical Cyclones
Heather M. Holbach, Florida State Univ., Northern Gulf Institute, and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and B. W. Klotz

10:00 AM
15D.9A
Barrier Layer Development within Tropical Cyclones Based on Argo Float Network Observations
John Daniel Steffen, Florida State Univ./Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Bourassa

10:15 AM
15D.10
Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction : Cases of Meranti (2016), Patricia (2015), and Haiyan (2013)
I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Huang, M. M. Lu, J. Boucharel, F. F. Jin, and M. Lien

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

11:00 AM-1:30 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Session 16A
Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Kunio Yoneyama, JAMSTEC; Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ.
11:15 AM
16A.2
Evaluation of Model Performance over the Maritime Continent
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. P. Barton, S. Chen, M. K. Flatau, J. Ridout, M. A. Janiga, T. Jensen, E. J. Metzger, J. G. Richman, and D. B. Baranowski

11:30 AM
16A.3
The PISTON and CAMP2Ex field programs: Coupled Meteorology, Oceanography and Compositional Systems Field Research on the Boreal Summertime Southwest Monsoon
Daniel Eleuterio, ONR, Arlington, VA; and H. Maring, S. Chen, E. D. Maloney, J. N. Moum, R. Holz, G. Narisma, J. S. Reid, S. A. Rutledge, S. C. van den Heever, and C. Villanoy

12:15 PM
16A.6
12:30 PM
16A.7
12:45 PM
16A.8
1:00 PM
16A.9
Observation Study for Understanding the Relation of Lightning Activity and Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines
Hisayuki Kubota, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo, Japan; and Y. Takahashi, M. Sato, K. Yamashita, and J. I. Hamada


Session 16B
Hazard Communication
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Cody Fritz, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
11:15 AM
16B.2A
NOAA's Recent Improvements in Storm Surge Forecasts and Warnings
Cody L. Fritz, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome

11:45 AM
16B.4
Understanding and Improving Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasts through Visualizations of Risk and Potential Impacts
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi, H. Lazrus, J. Boehnert, J. L. Demuth, and J. Gambill

12:00 PM
16B.5
The National Hurricane Center's Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Product
Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and J. L. Schwietert

12:15 PM
16B.6
Public Usage of the NHC Website During Recent U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. Onderlinde and M. Sardi

12:45 PM
16B.8
1:15 PM
16B.10
Decisive Factors for Typhoon Risk Distribution in South Korea
Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. S. R. Park and M. M. Bell


Session 16C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VIII: Forecasts
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Robert F. Rogers, Hurricane Research Division, AOML; Erin Munsell, Laboratory for Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes
11:00 AM
16C.1
11:45 AM
16C.4
12:00 PM
16C.5
An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid (RIPA) for the western North Pacific
John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson and K. D. Musgrave
Manuscript (293.5 kB)

12:30 PM
16C.7
Development of Statistical-dynamical Tools for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction in the Southwest Indian Ocean
Marie-Dominique Leroux, Météo-France / LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and D. A. Mékiès, J. Meister, and A. L. Dorla

1:00 PM
16C.9
1:15 PM
16C.10

Session 16D
Air-Sea Interaction II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Heather Holbach, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Florida State Univ., and the Northern Gulf Institute; I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ.
11:00 AM
16D.1
Sea Spray Transport Intensifying Tropical Cyclones
Kosuke Ito, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and S. Kanda and N. Takagaki

11:30 AM
16D.3
Impact of Three-Way Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on HWRF Forecasting for 2017 High-Impact Hurricanes
Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, A. Mehra, B. Thomas, D. Sheinin, H. S. Kim, B. Reichl, I. Ginis, J. Dong, Z. Zhang, A. Chawla, and V. Tallapragada

11:45 AM
16D.4
12:15 PM
16D.6
12:45 PM
16D.8
Ensemble Forecast of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) Using a High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects of TC-Ocean Interaction
Kuan-Jen Lin, National Central Univ., Jhongli City, Taiwan; and S. S. Chen and S. C. Yang
Manuscript (535.9 kB)

1:00 PM
16D.9
Modeling and Analysis of the Ocean Spray Effects on Hurricane Dynamics
Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov

1:15 PM
16D.10
The Effect of Air-Sea Interactions on Tropical Cyclone Predictions in the West Pacific
Nicholas P. Klingaman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK; and X. Feng and K. I. Hodges

1:30 PM-1:35 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Conference Concludes

1:45 PM-2:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Student Award Ceremony
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)