33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Registration

Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Registration

Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 1A

Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.

8:30 AM

1A.1

A Climatological Relationship between MJO/ENSO Phases and Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Saharan Dust Storms across the Tropical Atlantic Basin

Jordan L. Rabinowitz, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO

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8:45 AM

1A.2

The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves

Christina M Patricola, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang

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9:00 AM

1A.3

Improving Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting for the Atlantic Basin Using Redundancy Analysis

Matthew Lee Titus, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and K. Thompson

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9:15 AM

1A.4

Relative Impacts of Tropical and Extratropical Forcing on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Model Simulations

Chuan-Chieh Chang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

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9:30 AM

1A.5

Seasonal Predictability Study of Tropical Cyclones Using a High-Resolution Tropical Channel Model

Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang and C. M. Patricola

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9:45 AM

1A.6

Interannual Relationship between the Tropical SST and Summertime Anticyclone over the Western Pacific

Erh-Tung Wu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui, C. W. Lee, and P. H. Chung

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Session 1B

African Weather and Climate I

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ.

8:30 AM

Paper 1B.1 has been moved. New poster number is 117A.

8:45 AM

1B.2

Daily Rainfall Modulation of the Long and Short Rains in East Africa By the Madden Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and R. van der Linden, J. G. Pinto, L. Seregina, N. Elagib, and J. Njeri

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9:00 AM

1B.3

The Westward Increase of Mesoscale Convection Organization over Northern Africa: A Case Study

Irene Reinares Martinez, Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Chaboureau

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9:15 AM

1B.4

Modulation of Precipitation over West Africa by Equatorial Waves

Andreas Schlueter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, and P. Vogel

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9:30 AM

1B.5

Mechanisms of African Easterly Wave Genesis

Joshua Dylan White, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer

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9:45 AM

1B.6

Identification and Climatology of Rainfall Types over Southern West Africa

Marlon Maranan, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink and P. Knippertz

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Session 1C

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) I

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

CoChair: Nicole P. Kurkowski, NWS

8:30 AM

1C.1

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP):Addressing the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and F. Toepfer, E. Rappaport, and N. P. Kurkowski

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8:45 AM

1C.2

Recent and Future Advances in Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP)

Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, D. Iredell, Q. Liu, B. Zhang, J. A. Sippel, B. Thomas, K. Wu, S. Abarca, and H. Winterbottom

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9:00 AM

1C.3

A Description of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance

Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and A. Simon, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky

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9:15 AM

1C.4

Isolating Factors for the Northward Turn Timing and Location of Hurricane Irma

Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Cai, G. J. Alaka Jr., F. D. Marks Jr., L. Qi, and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

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9:30 AM

1C.5

Investigation of Irma & Maria Track Forecasts Using an Ensemble Approach within Basin-Scale HWRF

Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. Zhang

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9:45 AM

1C.6

Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction with an Analog Ensemble

Stefano Alessandrini, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. M. Rozoff, W. E. Lewis, and L. Delle Monache

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Session 1D

Tropical Extratropical Interactions I

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin

8:30 AM

1D.1

A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition

Melanie Bieli, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. L. Evans, and T. M. Hall

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8:45 AM

1D.2

TC Lionrock (2016) Touches All the Bases during Its Lifecycle: Monsoon Gyre, Tropical Transition, TC-TC Interactions, a Predecessor Rain Event, and Extratropical Transition

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. P. Papin, A. M. Bentley, and T. Burg

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9:00 AM

1D.3

Diagnosis of the Interaction of Recurving Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) with the Extratropical Flow in fvGFS

Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and S. L. Rees

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9:15 AM

1D.4

Ventilation and Storm Structure during Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Christian Euler, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany; and T. Kremer, M. Riemer, and E. Schömer

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9:30 AM

1D.5

Evolution of Distinct Air Streams during the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Tobias Kremer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany; and M. Riemer, E. Schömer, and C. Euler

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9:45 AM

1D.6

An Investigation of the Along-Track Bias in the ECMWF Ensemble for Transitioning North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.

Nicholas Leonardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

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Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 2A

Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ.

10:30 AM

2A.1

Normalized Hurricane Damage in the U.S.: 1900- 2017

Jessica Weinkle, Univ. of North Carolina, Wilmington, NC; and R. Pielke Jr., C. Landsea, D. Collins, R. Musulin, R. P. Crompton, and P. J. Klotzbach

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10:45 AM

2A.2

Reanalysis of the 1960-1970 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Sandy Delgado, StormGeo, Inc., Houston, TX; and C. Landsea and D. Ortt

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11:00 AM

2A.3

Towards a Homogenized Century-Scale Record of Atlantic Major Hurricanes

Gabriel A. Vecchi, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and C. Landsea and W. Zhang

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11:15 AM

2A.4

Energetic Perspectives on U.S. Tropical Cyclone Activity

Ryan Truchelut, WeatherTiger, LLC, Tallahassee, FL; and E. M. Staehling

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11:30 AM

2A.5

A Climatology of Catastrophic Flooding in Texas from Tropical Cyclones

Derek Ortt, StormGeo, Houston, TX; and C. Self

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11:45 AM

2A.6

Climate Factors Causing the Extremely Active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. J. Klotzbach

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12:00 PM

2A.7

Using Catastrophe Models to Analyze the Probabilities of Recent Tropical Cyclone Records

Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. Huang

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Session 2B

African Weather and Climate II

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

CoChair: Andreas Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

10:30 AM

2B.1

The Challenge of Classifying Propagating Synoptic Disturbances in the African Tropics – Examples from the DACCIWA Field Campaign

Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and M. Maranan

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10:45 AM

2B.2

Variability of African Easterly Wave Structures

Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

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11:00 AM

2B.3

The Interaction between Deep Convection and Easterly Wave Activity over Africa: Convective Transitions and Mechanisms

Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and W. B. Rossow

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11:15 AM

2B.4

Understanding African Easterly Wave Forecast Intensification Differences in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Travis J. Elless, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

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11:30 AM

2B.5

Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) that are Potential Candidates for Tropical Cyclogenesis

Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park,, PA; and J. L. Evans

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11:45 AM

2B.6

African Easterly Waves and Convection: A Potential Vorticity Perspective

James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer

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12:00 PM

2B.7

A Synoptic Model for African Easterly Waves

Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. O. H. Russell and J. D. White

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Session 2C

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) II

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD

CoChair: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

10:30 AM

2C.1

Role of In-Cloud Turbulent Mixing in the Eyewall and Rainbands in Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Ping Zhu, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and B. P. Tyner, J. Zhang, S. Abarca, E. Aligo, F. D. Marks Jr., Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

10:45 AM

2C.2

Boundary Layer Influences on Hurricane Structure and Forecast Skill: Results from Idealized and Retrospective Simulations

Robert G. Fovell, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and S. Abarca

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11:00 AM

2C.3

A Top-Down Pathway to Secondary Eyewall Formation in Simulated Tropical Cyclones

Bryce Tyner, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and P. Zhu, J. A. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, F. D. Marks Jr., and V. Tallapragada

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11:15 AM

2C.4

Eddy Vorticity Fluxes in Rapidly Intensifying and Non-Intensifying Storms

Hua Leighton, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

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11:30 AM

2C.5

Secondary Eyewalls in HWRF and HMON, Too Few? Too Many?

Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra

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11:45 AM

2C.6

Can the Grell-Freitas Convective Scheme Improve HWRF?

Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. M. Newman, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, G. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

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12:00 PM

2C.7

Application of Machine Learning for Secondary Eyewall Formation Prediction in HWRF and HMON Models

Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

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Session 2D

Tropical Extratropical Interactions II

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ.

10:30 AM

2D.1

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change under the Influence of Upper-level Troughs in Idealized Simulations

Casey M. Peirano, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero and B. H. Tang

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10:45 AM

2D.2

Upper-Level Troughs, Jet Streaks, and TCs: An Objective Climatology and Features Associated with Rapid TC Intensity Change

Levi P. Cowan, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

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11:00 AM

2D.3

The Relationship Between Potential Vorticity Streamer Activity and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin

Philippe P. Papin, National Research Council/Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and L. F. Bosart and R. D. Torn

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11:15 AM

2D.4

The Meandering Margin of the Moist Meteorological Tropics

Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. S. Chung, W. Hannah, H. Masunaga, A. Wimmers, and C. S. Velden

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11:30 AM

2D.5

Modulation of the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Flow and Extreme Events By the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, C. F. Baggett, K. C. Tseng, B. D. Mundhenk, S. Henderson, and B. Wolding

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11:45 AM

2D.6

The Representation of the Circumglobal Teleconnection in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Model

Jonathan D Beverley, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and S. Woolnough, L. Baker, S. Johnson, and A. Weisheimer

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12:00 PM

2D.7

Diagnosing the Sources of Operational Forecast Model Errors in Tropical-Extratropical Interactions

Juliana Dias, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis and M. Gehne

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Lunch Break

Session 3A

Climate Change I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL

1:30 PM

3A.1

Reduced TC Activity and Enhanced Anticyclone in the WNP in a Warmer World: Projection and Mechanism

H. H. Hsu, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

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1:45 PM

3A.2

Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Influences on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. Camargo, M. Previdi, and K. Emanuel

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2:00 PM

3A.3

Projected Changes of Tropical Cyclone Formation Regions in the Southern Hemisphere

Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. Ye

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2:15 PM

3A.4

Investigating Potential Changes in Tropical Cyclone Overland Precipitation in the U.S. Due to Future Climate Change

Kevin A. Reed, Stony Brook Univ., SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and C. M. Zarzycki, M. F. Wehner, J. Huff, and J. T. Bacmeister

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2:30 PM

3A.5

Using HiFLOR to Understand the Connection Between Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates and Climate Change

Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi

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Handout (1.3 MB)

2:45 PM

3A.6

Migration of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones: Relation to Maximum Wind Speeds

Kelsey N. Ellis, Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; and S. A. Tennille

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3:00 PM

3A.7

Increasing Frequency of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms over the Arabian Sea

Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi and S. Underwood

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3:15 PM

3A.8

Intermodel Variability in Tropical Cyclones Downscaled from Paleoclimate Simulations

Quinton Anthony Lawton, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and R. Korty

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Session 3B

Tropical Cyclogenesis I

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR

1:30 PM

3B.1

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Stratified by Genesis Environment

Hironori Fudeyasu, Yokohama National Univ., Yokohama, Japan; and R. Yoshida

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1:45 PM

3B.2

Comparison of Multi-Day Convective-Environmental Evolution between TC Developing Vs. Non-Developing Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

Minhee Chang, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. H. Ho and M. S. Park

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2:00 PM

3B.3

Role of Maritime Continent Topography in Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. M. Fine, P. E. Ciesielski, C. C. Wang, S. K. Ma, and R. K. Taft

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2:15 PM

3B.4

Long-term Statistical Features of Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon- and Easterly-related Environments

Hsu-Feng Teng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Lee, H. H. Hsu, and J. Done

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2:30 PM

3B.5

Interaction of Kelvin and Easterly Waves Over the Atlantic and Implications for Tropical Cyclogenesis

Sridhar Mantripragada, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer and C. J. Schreck III

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2:45 PM

3B.6

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Formation as Depicted by the Marsupial Paradigm Automated Lagrangian Okubo-Weiss Tracker for the GFS

Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and B. Rutherford, M. T. Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton

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3:00 PM

3B.7

Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana−Champaign, Urbana, IL; and W. Li, M. Peng, X. Jiang, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and C. Davis

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3:15 PM

3B.8

Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Predictability

Michael Maier-Gerber, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, E. Di Muzio, and R. McTaggart-Cowan

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Session 3C

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) III

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

CoChair: S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD

1:30 PM

3C.1

The Impact of Stochastic Physics Based Hybrid GSI/EnKF Data Assimilation on Hurricane Track/Intensity Forecasts Using NCEP's Operational Hurricane Modeling System

Zhan Zhang, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Tong, A. Mehra, J. A. Sippel, B. Zhang, K. Wu, V. Tallapragada, and B. Liu

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1:45 PM

3C.2

Performance of the HWRF Analog Ensemble during the HFIP 2017 Real-Time Demonstration

William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and C. M. Rozoff, L. Delle Monache, and S. Alessandrini

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2:00 PM

3C.3

Why Did “Spin Down” Still Occur during HWRF Intensity Prediction of Patricia (2015) Initialized By a More Realistic Analysis Produced By the Advanced Hybrid Data Assimilation System?

Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Lu

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2:15 PM

3C.4

Improving Vortex Initialization and Hurricane Forecasting through 3dEnVar and 4dEnVar Hybrid Data Assimilation Methods

Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and V. Tallapragada and W. McCarty

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2:30 PM

3C.5

Recent and Planned Upgrades to Operational HWRF Data Assimilation

Henry Winterbottom, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Sippel, A. Mehra, B. Zhang, and Z. Zhang

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2:45 PM

3C.6

Ocean Model Impact Study for Improvement of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasting

Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., P. G. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. J. Cione, J. Dong, P. J. Fitzpatrick, G. Goni, B. Jaimes, S. Jayne, B. Liu, E. Sanabia, L. K. Shay, B. Thomas, J. Zhang, L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

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3:00 PM

3C.7

Limit on the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Accuracy

Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and K. Keshavamurthy

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3:15 PM

3C.8

New Methods for Incorporating Situation-specific Track Uncertainty into the Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Model

Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

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Session 3D

Monsoon

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ding Ma, Harvard Univ.

CoChair: Salvatore Pascale, GFDL

1:30 PM

3D.1

What Determines the ITCZ Position During Solsticial Seasons on Earth and Other Planets?

Spencer A Hill, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. Bordoni and J. L. Mitchell

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1:45 PM

3D.2

Investigating the geographic controls of the North American monsoon in the Community Atmosphere Model

Arianna M Varuolo-Clarke, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. Medeiros and K. A. Reed

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2:00 PM

3D.3

The Influence of CO2 Forcing on North American Monsoon Moisture Surges and Precipitation Intensity in the Southwestern U.S. in a 50-km-Resolution General Circulation Model

Salvatore Pascale, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Kapnick, S. Bordoni, and T. Delworth

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2:15 PM

3D.4

Poleward Shift and Weakening of Summer Season Synoptic Activity over India in a Warming Climate

Ajaya Mohan Ravindran, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, UAE; and S. Sukumaran, W. Boos, T. P. Sabin, and V. Praveen

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2:30 PM

3D.5

Impact of Dry Spells over Central India in Modulating Subsequent Northward Propagation of Intraseasonal Convective Bands in the Indian Summer Monsoon

Nirupam Karmakar, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

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2:45 PM

3D.6

Moisture-Convection Feedbacks and the Growth of Indian Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems

Ángel F. Adames, GFDL, Plainsboro, NJ; and Y. Ming

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3:00 PM

3D.7

An Overview of the 2016 Indian Monsoon Progression from INCOMPASS Field Observations and Modelling

Arathy Menon, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and A. G. Turner, S. Webster, and G. Martin

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3:15 PM

3D.8

The Thermodynamic Structure of the South Indian Monsoon

Jennifer K. Fletcher, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and D. J. Parker, A. G. Turner, A. Menon, G. M. Martin, and K. M. R. Hunt

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Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 4A

Climate Change II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL

4:00 PM

4A.1

Tropical Cyclone Structure and Size across Climates

Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. R. Chavas

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4:15 PM

4A.2

Widening of Tropical Cyclone Scale Projected By Multi-Decadal Experiments with a 14km-Mesh Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Yohei Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Satoh, M. Sugi, C. Kodama, A. T. Noda, M. Nakano, and T. Nasuno

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4:30 PM

4A.3

Climate Change Effects on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

Allison C. Michaelis, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

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4:45 PM

4A.4

Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate

Chunyong Jung, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4A.5

Wind Waves from Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico

Christian M. Appendini, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mérida, Yucatan, Mexico; and R. Meza-Padilla and A. Ramirez-Manguilar

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Handout (13.2 MB)

5:15 PM

4A.6

Two Centuries of Africa Rainfall and Links to the Global Oceans

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4A.7

Recent Changes in the Temporal Clustering Patterns of Tropical Rainfall

Wen-wen Tung, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. C. Bowers, W. S. Cleveland, and Q. Liu

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Recorded Presentation

4A.8

Dynamic Amplification of Extreme Precipitation Sensitivity

5:45 PM

4A.8A

How Unusual was the 2005 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic? A Multi-Model Analysis

Kevin J.E. Walsh, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Lavender, M. King, L. P. Caron, S. Monkiewicz, and M. P. Guishard

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Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Tropical Cyclogenesis II

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates

4:00 PM

4B.1

The Effects of Initial Vortex Size on Tropical Cyclogenesis and Intensification

Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

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4:15 PM

4B.2

Convective Adjustment, Gravity Waves and Diurnal Regulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and J. Fang

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Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.3

The Role of Radiation in Accelerating the Genesis of Atlantic Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Warren Smith II, CIRES, Boulder, CO

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (117.2 kB)

4:45 PM

4B.4

Gross Moist Stability Evolution during Tropical Cyclogenesis

Brian H. Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY

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Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4B.5

Dry and Semi-Dry Tropical Cyclones

Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. R. Chavas

Audio File
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5:15 PM

4B.6

The Myth That Tropical Cyclones Cannot Form Near the Equator

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

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5:30 PM

4B.7

An Investigation of the Formation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Peng and J. D. Doyle

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5:45 PM

4B.8

Dry Air, Midlevel Flow, and the Persistence of Deep Convection in Atlantic Tropical Disturbances

Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. A. Davis, J. P. Dunion, and L. F. Bosart

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Session 4C

Tropical Cyclone Structure I

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Morgan E O'Neill, Univ. of Chicago

4:00 PM

4C.1

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Intensity of Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Concentric Eyewall Events

Rachel G. Mauk, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

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4:15 PM

4C.2

Eyewall Cycles in Vertically Sheared and Unsheared Tropical Cyclones

John E. Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. M. Dougherty, R. Rogers, J. A. Zhang, and J. P. Kossin

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4:30 PM

4C.3

Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Goni (2015) After Eyewall Replacement Cycle

Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Sawada and H. Yamada

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4:45 PM

4C.4

Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Hurricane Matthew (2016) Observed by Doppler radar

Ting-Yu Cha, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

5:00 PM

4C.5

Examining the Role of Spiral Rainbands in Secondary Eyewall Formation

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., The Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and F. Zhang, R. F. Rogers, P. Reasor, and R. Nystrom

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5:15 PM

4C.6

Diagnosis of Secondary Eyewall Formation Mechanisms in Ensembles of High-Resolution Hurricane Simulations

Kristen L. Corbosiero, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. N. Stevenson and R. D. Torn

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5:30 PM

4C.7

Analyzing Asymmetric TC Structures during Secondary Eyewall Formation Using Flight-Level Observations

Katharine E. D. Wunsch, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and A. C. Didlake Jr.

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5:45 PM

4C.8

Impact of the Diurnal Radiation Cycle on Secondary Eyewall Formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Z. M. Tan, J. Fang, Y. Q. Sun, and F. Zhang

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

Handout (5.2 MB)

Session 4D

High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 I

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International Univ.

4:00 PM

4D.1

Investigation of Storm Surge Impacts from Hurricane Irma Along Coastal Areas of Southern Mainland Florida

Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. Konarik, A. Moses, L. Kelly, M. M. Torres, and R. Molleda

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

4:15 PM

4D.2

Incorporating Rainfall into Storm Surge Forecasting for Hurricane Irma

Kyra Bryant, Tennessee State Univ., Nashville, TN; and A. Alghamdi, A. Musinguzi, and M. Akbar

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4:30 PM

4D.3

Validation of Storm Surge and Wind for High-Intensity Hurricanes during the 2017 Season

Cristina Forbes, Olazul, LLC, Key Biscayne, FL; and C. Mattocks

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (31.6 MB)

4:45 PM

4D.4

Surface Wind Fields of Significant Landfalling Hurricanes in 2017

Mark D. Powell, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

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5:00 PM

4D.5

Forecasting Hurricane Irma and its Storm Surge Using an MPAS-ADCIRC Ensemble

David Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fossell, R. E. Morss, C. A. Davis, and C. Snyder

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5:15 PM

4D.6

Surface Wind Field Reconstructions Using a New Asymmetric Parametric Model:Application to Major Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria of 2017.

Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Clavner, S. Lorsolo, P. J. Sousounis, and S. Tolwinski-Ward

5:30 PM

4D.7

Mapping of Winds in Landfalling Irma from Two DOWs and Several Pods Deployed Near Naples, Florida

Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4D.8

The Role of Small-Scale Vortices in Enhancing Surface Winds and Damage in Hurricane Harvey

Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba

Recorded Presentation

Icebreaker

Location: Spa Lawn (Sawgrass Marriott)

Registration

Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 5A

DA & Observing Systems I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jason A. Sippel, AOML

8:00 AM

5A.1

Analysis of the Impact of Synoptic Surveillance Dropsonde Observations on GFS and HWRF Model Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and J. Rogers

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8:15 AM

5A.2

The Quality of Observations from the Updated NCAR Dropsonde System in Severe Storms

Holger Vömel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hock, M. Goodstein, K. Young, and I. Suhr

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Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5A.3

Observations of 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using the New Solid State Tail-Doppler Radar Aboard the NOAA WP-3D Aircraft.

John F. Gamache, AOML, Miami, FL; and P. D. Reasor and P. P. Dodge

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Recorded Presentation

5A.4

Extreme, Surf-Zone Wave Event Captured by Bottom Mount Acoustic Sensor During Passage of Hurricane Matthew

8:45 AM

5A.4A

Gradient Non-Balance: A New Approach for the Outflow at the Top of Tropical Cyclones in Models and Observations

Yair Cohen, California Institue of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. L. Durden, N. Harnik, E. Heifetz, D. S. Nolan, D. Tao, and F. Zhang

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Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5A.5

The Performance and Data Utility of an Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar in Tropical Cyclone Environments

G. D. Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and C. O'Handley, L. Bucci, and R. Atlas

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9:15 AM

5A.6

An Observing System Experiment (OSE) Study of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) instrument

Kathryn Sellwood, Univ. of Miami CIMAS and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and D. J. Cecil

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Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5A.7

Evaluation of a Basin-Scale Nature Run for Hurricane OSSEs

Javier Delgado, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci, K. Ryan, and R. Atlas

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Recorded Presentation

5A.8

Direct Measurements of Gravity Waves Radiating from Hurricane Irma (2017) Obtained By the Univ. of Miami Helicopter Observing Platform (HOP)

9:45 AM

5A.8A

Next-Generation Satellite Observations of Wave Propagation in Rapidly-Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

Erin B. Munsell, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun and F. Zhang

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Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Tropical Cyclogenesis III

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Timothy W. Cronin, MIT

8:00 AM

5B.1

Diabatic Heating Associated with Different Types of Precipitation during Tropical Cyclone Formation

Cody L. Fritz, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, T. J. Dunkerton, and S. W. Nesbitt

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Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5B.2

Understanding the Role of Mid- and Low-Level Circulations in the Development of Typhoon Nuri

Julio C. Marin, Universidad de Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile; and D. J. Raymond

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8:30 AM

5B.3

On the Non-development of a Strong African Easterly Wave: Investigating Ensemble Forecasts and In-situ Observations.

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

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8:45 AM

5B.4

Assessing the Skill and Variability of Objective Ensemble Based Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and J. P. Dunion

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9:00 AM

5B.5

Verification, Application, and Improvements for a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Guidance Tool

Daniel J. Halperin, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and R. Hart

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9:15 AM

5B.6

A Predictive Statistical Model for Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Arturo Fernandez, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and K. Kashinath, J. McAuliffe, C. M. Patricola, M. Prabhat, P. B. Stark, and M. F. Wehner

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9:30 AM

5B.7

Recent Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Its Link to Tropical Expansion

S. Sharmila, Univ. of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

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9:45 AM

5B.8

Thermodynamic Constraints on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Count

Kimberly A. Hoogewind, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas, B. A. Schenkel, and M. O’Neill

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Recorded Presentation

Session 5C

Tropical Cyclone Structure II

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA

8:00 AM

5C.1

Effects of Low-Level Flow Orientation and Vertical Shear on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

BuoFu Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and Y. H. Kuo

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Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5C.2

A Historical Analysis of the Mature Stage of Tropical Cyclones

Shuai Wang, Imperial College London, London, UK; and R. Toumi

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Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5C.3

A New Asymmetric Parametric Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Field Model

Michal Clavner, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. Lorsolo, P. J. Sousounis, S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, and E. W. Uhlhorn

8:45 AM

5C.4

Understanding the Inland Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Wind Field through Idealized Numerical Modeling Experiments

Jie Chen, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

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Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5C.5

An Objective Measure of TC Size Using the Evolution of the Area of Closed Isobars: Algorithm, Resulting Climatology, and Physical Insights

Thomas B. McKenzie III, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart

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9:15 AM

5C.6

Changes in the Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Size Traversing the Philippines

Shu-Jeng Lin, Chinese Culture Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou

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9:30 AM

5C.7

The Effect of Surface Heat Fluxes in the Outer Region of Typhoon Megi(2016)

Li Zhi Shen, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

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9:45 AM

5C.8

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and N. Lin, D. R. Chavas, G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and M. Oppenheimer

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Recorded Presentation

Handout (13.0 MB)

Session 5D

High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 II

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Patrick Harr, Jupiter Technologies

8:00 AM

5D.1

Convection-Permitting Analysis and Prediction of Hurricane Harvey (2017) through Ensemble Assimilation of All-Sky GOES-R Radiance

Masashi Minamide, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang

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Recorded Presentation

5D.2

Taking Advantage of the High Resolution Arome Model for Monitorng and Forecasting Major Hurricanes IRMA and MARIA at Meteo-France/French West Indies.

8:30 AM

5D.3

Experimental Convection Permitting Ensemble Forecasts for Hurricanes Irma and Maria Using the Met Office Unified Model.

Stuart Webster, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and H. A. Titley and C. Short

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8:45 AM

5D.4

Ensemble-Based Predictability and Diagnostics of Outflow and Structure Change during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

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9:00 AM

5D.5

Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of Hurricane Harvey to Cloud Microphysical Schemes, Data Assimilation, and Cloud Initiation

Peter Saunders, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

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9:15 AM

5D.6

The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irma’s Track Forecasts As Determined from ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY

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9:30 AM

5D.7

An Investigation of North Atlantic TC Ensemble Forecasts with Large Cross-track Errors

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and N. Leonardo

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9:45 AM

5D.8

Use of Track Clustering to Elucidate Landfall Hazard Uncertainties of Harvey and Irma

Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

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Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 6A

DA & Observing Systems II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jonathan Poterjoy, NOAA

10:30 AM

6A.1

Historic Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015): Cloud-Resolving Analysis and Prediction through Ensemble Assimilation of Dropsonde, Radar and Satellite Observations

Robert Nystrom, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and F. Zhang

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Recorded Presentation

6A.2

Improved Simulation of Landfall Typhoon based on coastal Radar Data Assimilation

10:45 AM

6A.2A

Potentials in Improving Predictability of Multiscale Tropical Weather Systems Evaluated Through Ensemble Assimilation of Simulated Satellite-based Observations

Yue (Michael) Ying, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and F. Zhang

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Recorded Presentation

Handout (19.1 MB)

11:00 AM

6A.3

Impact of Assimilating Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations in Operational HWRF on Improving Hurricane Forecast for the 2017 Atlantic High-Impact Storms

Banglin Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD; and J. A. Sippel, B. Liu, M. Tong, Z. Zhang, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra

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Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6A.4

An Adaptive Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update Method for the GSI Based Hybrid 4DEnVar Data Assimilation System to Improve HWRF Hurricane Prediction

Xu Lu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

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11:30 AM

6A.5

A Comparison of Hybrid-4DEnVar and Hourly Hybrid-3DEnVar Assimilation of Tail Doppler Radar Observations on the Prediction of Rapidly Evolving Hurricanes

Benjamin Davis, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

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Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6A.6

Impact of NOAA P-3 Tail Doppler Radar Observations on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts Using a Regional OSSE Framework

Kelly E. Ryan, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci, J. Delgado, J. Poterjoy, and R. Atlas

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Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6A.7

Vortex Initialization through the High-Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter Framework and Its Impact on Intensity Forecast: A Case Study of Typhoon Megi (2010)

Yi-Pin Chang, National Central Univ., Zhongli, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang and K. J. Lin

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Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Operations & Landfall I

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

10:30 AM

6B.1

NGGPS Supported Unified Forecast System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP: Plans for Improved Hurricane Forecast Guidance from FV3GFS

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

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10:45 AM

6B.2

Recent Research and Development at MRI/JMA to Improve Typhoon Forecasts

Munehiko Yamaguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and U. Shimada, M. Sawada, T. Iriguchi, and H. Owada

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Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.3

Have We Reached the Limits of Predictability for Hurricane Track Forecasting?

Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi

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11:15 AM

6B.4

An Improved Methodology for Expressing and Communicating Tropical Cyclone Risk

Derek Ortt, StormGeo, Houston, TX

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (538.5 kB)

11:30 AM

6B.5

Effectively Issuing Extreme Wind Warnings (EWW) during Hurricane Maria When Observations and Radar Fails

Ernesto Rodriguez, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Carolina, PR; and R. Garcia-Hiraldo, I. Colon-Pagan, G. Lojero, and T. Washington

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11:45 AM

6B.6

Real Time Interpretation of SFMR Peak Surface Wind Speeds in Intense Hurricanes as Reported by Reconnaissance Aircraft

Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland, FL; and A. Lundry, P. Flaherty, J. Parrish, I. Sears, M. Holmes, B. Belson, J. Williams, and L. Miller

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Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6B.7

Utility of GOES-16 and MRMS Operational Products for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Kristin M. Calhoun, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart and D. M. Kingfield

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Session 6C

Tropical Cyclone Structure III

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research

10:30 AM

6C.1

Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts and Forecast Error Estimates for the Western North Pacific

Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. S. Goerss, J. A. Knaff, B. Strahl, E. M. Fukada, E. Serra, K. Richardson, T. Meissner, and L. Ricciardulli

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

10:45 AM

6C.2

Stochastic Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii

Andrew Polasky, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6C.3

The TC Diurnal Cycle: The Landfall Before the Landfall

Jason P. Dunion, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. D. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, and B. D. McNoldy

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11:15 AM

6C.4

Questions on Tropical Cyclone Structure as Analyzed from Precipitative Patterns Observed in Passive Microwave Imagery

Margaret E. Kieper, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL

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Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6C.5

JTWC 5-Day Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Forecasting - First Year in Review

Brian Strahl, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and C. R. Sampson and J. A. Knaff

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11:45 AM

6C.6

Bias Correction of Tropical Cyclone Structure in Global ECMWF-Ensemble Prediction System for NW Australia

Saima Aijaz, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and J. D. Kepert, H. Ye, Z. Huang, and A. Hawksford

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12:00 PM

6C.7

The Structural Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Environments with Time-Varying Vertical Wind Shear

Peter M. Finocchio, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. J. Majumdar

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Recorded Presentation

Session 6D

High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 III

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.

10:30 AM

6D.1

Climate Change and the Hurricanes of 2017

Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

Audio File
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10:45 AM

6D.2

Synthesis of US and Caribbean Hurricane Impacts on a Warmer Globe

Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and J. I. Hernandez

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11:00 AM

6D.3

Understanding Damage from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Javiera I. Hernandez, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

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11:15 AM

6D.4

Insurance Claims Illustrate Damage Footprint and Severity for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

William Ramstrom, Verisk Insurance Solutions, Lexington, MA; and K. Ramanathan

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6D.5

Investigation of the Rapid Intensity Changes of Landfalling Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (2017) through the Formalism of Scale Interactions

Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN, India; and T. N. Krishnamurti and S. K. Dubey

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11:45 AM

6D.6

Analysis of the Outflow Environments of Harvey, Irma and Maria and Why It Was Especially Favorable

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI

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Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6D.7

High-Resolution COAMPS-TC Ensemble Performance for the High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017

William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, P. A. Reinecke, and J. R. Moskaitis

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 7A

DA & Observing Systems III

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Altug Aksoy, AOML

1:30 PM

7A.1

Assimilation of All-Weather GMI and ATMS Observations into Hurricanes Using a Novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration Technique

Isaac Moradi, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and F. Evans, W. McCarty, M. Fuentes, and F. D. Marks Jr.

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7A.2

Improving Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones using Assimilation of ATMS and GMI Retrievals into HWRF

1:45 PM

7A.2A

Dropsonde-derived Vertical Velocities from the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiment

T. Connor Nelson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Harrison and K. L. Corbosiero

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2:00 PM

7A.3

Impact of High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Data Assimilation on Typhoon Forecasts in HWRF

Masahiro Sawada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and Z. Ma, B. Zhang, A. Mehra, V. Tallapragada, R. Oyama, and K. Shimoji

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

Assimilation of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Speeds with NCEP GSI-based Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation Systems for Improved Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones and Convective Systems

Zhiqiang Cui, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu, V. Tallapragada, C. Ruf, and R. Atlas

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

A Bayesian Framework for the All-Sky Assimilation of SAPHIR/Megha-Tropiques Observations within the Meteo-France Global Model ARPEGE

Philippe Chambon, CNRM, Toulouse, France

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2:45 PM

7A.6

Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts Using the Operational HWRF

Bachir Annane, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. M. Leidner, B. McNoldy, R. Atlas, S. Majumdar, and R. N. Hoffman

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3:00 PM

7A.7

The Impact of HDOB and CIMSS AMV Observation Assimilation on the Analysis of Inner Core and Outflow Structures and the Prediction of Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Xinyan Lyu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

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3:15 PM

7A.8

Assessment of a Delay-Doppler Map (DDM) Observation Operator for use in CYGNSS Data Assimilation

James L. Garrison, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. Leidner, F. Huang, B. Annane, and R. N. Hoffman

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

Operations & Landfall II

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC

1:30 PM

7B.1

Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on Societies

Elizabeth A Ritchie, Univ. of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and K. M. Wood and D. L. Balukas

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1:45 PM

7B.2

NHC High-resolution Storm Surge Hindcast Supporting Disaster Response

Laura Paulik, NHC, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome and W. Booth

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2:00 PM

7B.3

The Practical Predictability of Storm Tide from Tropical Cyclones: A Look at Recent Storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Kathryn R. Fossell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych, R. Morss, C. Snyder, and C. Davis

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2:15 PM

7B.4

Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Model for Forecasting Storm Surges

Keqi Zhang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and Y. Li and B. C. Zachry

2:30 PM

7B.5

Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Jesse Schaffer, University of Wisconsin−Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber and C. Evans

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (171.8 kB)

7B.6

The Hurricane Boundary Layer Transition from Ocean to Land: A Multi-Platform Investigation of Hurricane Irene (2011)

3:00 PM

7B.7

On The Uncertainties in Potential Vorticity Tendency Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Track

Kuan-Chieh Huang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

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3:15 PM

7B.8

Sub-Kilometer Simulation of Landfall of Typhoon Rammasun (2014)

Wenyu Qiu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Recorded Presentation

Session 7C

Tropical Cyclone Structure IV

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Daniel Stern, UCAR / NRL

1:30 PM

7C.1

A Simplified Approach to Understanding Boundary Layer Structure Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Eleanor Delap, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (629.2 kB)

1:45 PM

7C.2

Dynamic Characteristics of TC Boundary Layer from Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Lisa Bucci, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and G. D. Emmitt, J. Zhang, C. O'Handley, S. Greco, and R. Atlas

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2:00 PM

7C.3

Shock-like Structures in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

Christopher J. Slocum, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO

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2:15 PM

7C.4

Convectively Forced Wavenumber-1 Vortex Rossby Waves in the Inner Waveguide

Israel Gonzalez III, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL

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2:30 PM

7C.5

Convectively Coupled Linear Instability in TC-like Vortices

Jiahua Guo, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

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2:45 PM

7C.6

Eyewall Tilt Viewed from a Moist Adiabatic Ascending Perspective

Yiwu Huang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Duan

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3:00 PM

7C.7

Estimated In-situ Eyewall Turbulence from Aircraft Observations in the South China Sea

Nathan J Sparks, Imperial College London, London, UK; and K. K. Hon, P. W. Chan, J. C. L. Chan, and R. Toumi

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3:15 PM

7C.8

Hurricanes in the Regional-refined GFDL HiRAM: Inner-core Structure Simulation and Subseasonal Prediction

Kun Gao, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and L. Harris, J. H. Chen, and S. J. Lin

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Recorded Presentation

Session 7D

High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 IV

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC

1:30 PM

7D.1

Hurricane Irma: A Study on Evacuation Decision and Social Connectedness

Jennifer M. Collins, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and R. Ersing, A. Polen, M. E. Saunders, and J. C. Senkbeil

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1:45 PM

7D.2

The 2017 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Real-Time Experiments: Highlights on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (gopal), AOML, Miami, FL; and M. Bender, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, N. P. Kurkowski, and F. Marks

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2:00 PM

7D.3

A Gridded TCM to Support Forecast Operations at NHC and WFOs

Craig Mattocks, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Santos, C. Forbes, and C. Mello

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Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.4 MB)

2:15 PM

7D.4

Polarimetric Radar Analysis of Hurricane Harvey’s (2017) Record-Setting Rainfall

Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

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2:30 PM

7D.5

HEDAS Analyses of Intense Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Patricia

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. J. Sellwood, B. A. Dahl, and A. Aksoy

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2:45 PM

7D.6

Operational Hurricane Forecast Model Track Error Spikes in Hurricane Irma (2017)

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

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3:00 PM

7D.7

A Review of Model Guidance for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, and A. Mehra

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3:15 PM

7D.8

Reconciling the NHC Intensity Estimates and Observed Wind Speeds for 2017 Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

Marty Bell, WeatherFlow, Fort Collins, CO; and F. J. Masters, T. McGee, and J. H. Copeland

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Poster Session 1

NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

1

OSSE Evaluation of Global Hawk Dropsonde Sampling Strategies in a Tropical Cyclone

Brittany A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and H. Christophersen

2

Observations from a Passive Microwave Sounder on the Global Hawk: HAMSR during SHOUT and EPOCH

Mathias Schreier, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

4

Overview of the SHOUT AVAPS Dropsonde System

Terry Hock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Voemel, K. Young, and N. Potts

Poster Session 2

Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

5

IBTrACS Version 4 – Faster Updates, Fewer Formats, and Better Support

Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, M. C. Kruk, and C. J. Schreck III

6

Should We Undertake a Global Reanalysis of Tropical Cyclones?

Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Caroff, S. Delgado, C. Guard, M. P. Guishard, C. C. Hennon, J. Knaff, K. Knapp, J. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, C. Velden, and J. L. Vigh

7

Characterizing the Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Motion

Chelsey N. Laurencin, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and V. Misra

8

Bias-Correction of the 14-Day NCEP GEFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by Using the Reforecast Dataset

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang Univ., New Taipei City, Taiwan; and T. T. Lo, M. S. Chen, and R. L. Elsberry

9

Climatology and Predictability of Mid-Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in High-Atmospheric-Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

Julia V. Manganello, George Mason Univ./COLA, Fairfax, VA; and B. Cash and E. T. Swenson

Handout (9.3 MB)

10

Www.seasonalhurricanepredictions.org

Louis-Philippe Caron, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and P. J. Klotzbach and T. J. Philp

11

Evaluating the performance of various lead-time indicators in anticipating the high impact 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

12

Comparison of Destructive Wind Forces of Hurricane Irma with Other Hurricanes Impacting NASA Kennedy Space Center, 2004-2017

Lisa L. Huddleston, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, FL; and D. W. Sharp, K. A. Winters, and K. A. Smith

13

Trends in Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity (1951-2017)

Anna M. Trevino, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

14

Exploring Decadal Predictability of Tropical Cyclones using CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DP-LE)

Wei-Ching Hsu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang, S. Yeager, C. M. Patricola, and G. Danabasoglu

15

Large-Scale Atmospheric Forcing of Vertical Wind Shear in the Tropics

Jhordanne J. Jones, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell and P. J. Klotzbach

Handout (4.7 MB)

16

Very Little Evidence for a Direct Effect of Volcano Aerosols on Global Tropical Cyclone Activity

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and L. M. Polvani

17

Recovery of Tropical Cyclone Activities Associated with Monsoon Gyre in the Western North Pacific in 1950

Hisayuki Kubota, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo, Japan

18

Direct and Indirect Impacts of Positive Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) events on Cyclonic Activity in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) Basin

Edouard Lees, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint Denis, Reunion; and O. Bousquet, J. Leclair de Bellevue, F. Bonnardot, S. Langlade, G. Jumaux, and R. Fernandes

Handout (1.4 MB)

Poster Session 3

Tropical Cyclone Structure

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

19

Influence of Convergence of Angular Momentum on Eyewall Replacement Cycle

20

What Limits the Secondary Eyewall Formation in Intense Tropical Cyclones

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Poster 21 has been moved. New paper number is 8C.4A

22

Analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy in 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Wind Fields

Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Powell

23

The Influence of the Tropical Cyclone Outer-Core Wind Strength for Landfalling Storm in Taiwan

Kun-Hsuan Chou, Chinese Culture Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and S. J. Lin and S. Y. Wu

24

Sample Optimization ofEnsemble Forecast to Simulate Tropical Cyclone using the Observed Track

Jihang Li, CMA, Guangzhou, China

25

Diagnosis on the Characteristics of the Mesoscale Potential Vorticity in Intensity-Maintaining Tropical Cyclone

Hancheng Lu, College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Q. H. Li, X. Huang, and S. Liu

Handout (561.8 kB)

26

Influences of Difference Outer Convective Precipitation Distribution on Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Replacement Cycle with Typhoon Sinlaku(0813)

Xiaogang Huang, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and X. Cheng

27

On the Role of Coriolis Forcing in the Bifurcation of Tropical Cyclone Development

Quan Wang, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and C. Kieu

28

The Role of the Boundary Layer Dynamics in Secondary Eyewall Formation

Kuan-Yu Lu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

The Sensitivity of Eyewall Instability to Microphysical Processes

29

Asymmetric Convection Outside of the Eyewall: Role of Vertical Wind Shear, Vortex Tilt, and Frictional Convergence

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany

30

The Dynamical Dependence of Tropical Cyclones in Aquaplanet Climate Experiments Under Uniform Thermal Forcing

Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Reed

31

A Dynamical Mechanism for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones

Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and N. Sugimoto

32

Development and Applications of a Long-term, Global Tropical Cyclone Dropsonde Dataset

Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Nguyen, E. Paltz, K. Young, H. Voemel, and T. Hock

33

Observations of Gravity Waves Radiating from Hurricanes Obtained from Research Aircraft and Surface Stations

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

34

The Impact of Terrain Height on Precipitation Processes in a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone

Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Houze Jr.

35

The Thermodynamic Evolution of the Hurricane Boundary Layer During Eyewall Replacement Cycles

Gabriel J. Williams Jr., College of Charleston, Charleston, SC

Handout (1.2 MB)

36

A Dynamical Perspective on Inner Eyewall Dissipation in Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Tsz-Kin Lai, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and K. Menelaou and P. M. K. Yau

37

The Parametric RMS Wind Field Model as a Substitution for HWind Snapshots in the Absence of Data

Chana D. Seitz, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

38

Eyewall Replacement Cycles in Hurricane Edouard (2014): Dynamics and Ensemble Variability

Erin B. Munsell, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. C. Didlake Jr., S. A. Braun, and F. Zhang

39

Radar-Derived Thermodynamic Structure of Hurricane Rita (2005) in Vertical Wind Shear

Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. M. Foerster

40

Evolution of the Upper-Level Thermal Structure in Reanalyzed Tropical Cyclones

Louis Rivoire, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and T. Birner

41

Accounting for Errors when Projecting Data onto a TC-Centered Space

Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and L. P. Cowan

Handout (2.0 MB)

42

Exploring Eyewall Contraction Using the FLIGHT+ Dataset

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. L. Vigh

43

Automated Cyclone Detection Using Lagrangian Flow Topology

Blake Rutherford, NWRA, Redmond, WA; and M. A. Boothe, M. T. Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton

44

Entropy Flow Characteristics of Fine Structure of Typhoon CHANCHU (2006)

44A

Flow Boundaries and Ventilation of Tropical Cylones in Idealized Scenarios with Varying Wind Shear

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and F. Sadlo and Y. Wang

Poster Session 4

Climate and Large-scale Circulation

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

45

Changes in Tropical Regional Circulation Under Global Warming: The Role of Vertical Structure of Convection in Current Climate

Chao-An Chen, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. Y. Yu and C. Chou

46

A 10-Year GOES-East-Based Climatology of Cold Lows

John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

47

Classification of Rainfall Regimes over North-Western Australia in Observations and CMIP5 Models

Scott Clark, Monash Univ., Clayton, Australia; and M. J. Reeder and C. Jakob

48

Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project

Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and K. A. Reed, M. Satoh, B. Stevens, S. Bony, and T. Ohno

49

Clouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity in Convection-Permitting Model Simulations of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and A. A. Wing

50

Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Main Development Region and Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Atlantic Basin

Poster Session 5

DA & Observing Systems

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

51

Comparison of Flight Dynamics of Dropsondes

52

A Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone Observations Dataset

Kathryn Sellwood, Univ. of Miami CIMAS and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, H. Christophersen, B. A. Dahl, and S. Aberson

53

CPEX 2017: Evaluating the Precision and Bias of NASA’s Airborne Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) Lidar Using Comparisons with Dropsondes and Other Wind Observing Systems

G. D. Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and S. Greco, M. Garstang, and M. Beaubien

54

Composite Observation Impact on Short-Range Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts in the Navy Global Environmental Model

Brett T. Hoover, CIMSS, Madison, WI

55

Plans for Data Assimilation and Forecast Experiment with Dropsondes during T-PARCII

Kosuke Ito, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, and K. Tsuboki

Poster Session 6

High Impact Hurricanes of 2017: The Science and Impacts

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

56

Analysis of SHIPS Environmental Parameters during Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria in Relation to Eyewall Lightning

Chris Vagasky, Vaisala, Inc., Louisville, CO

Poster 57 has been moved. New paper number is 10D.5A

58

The 2017 NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

Paul Reasor, NOAA, Miami, FL

59

Hurricane Harvey and Ocean Heat: Insight from Repeat Hydrographic Surveys

60

Verifying Hindcast Simulations of Recent Major Hurricanes in Variable-Resolution CAM

Alyssa M Stansfield, SUNY Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY; and K. A. Reed, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. F. Wehner

61

Documentation of Eyewall Replacement Cycle Completion during Hurricane Maria

Cristina N Pereda, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

62

Hurricane Irma: Assessing the Local Tornado Threat and Corresponding Potential Impacts across East Central Florida

William Ulrich, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and K. Rodriguez, P. Blottman, D. S. Kelly, M. Bragaw, J. Guseman, D. Sharp, and S. M. Spratt

63

Inland Severe Weather Impacts Produced by Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., P. P. Dodge, J. A. Zhang, and F. D. Marks Jr.

64

Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central-eastern Atlantic over the Past 30 Years

Gregory R. Foltz, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and K. Balaguru and L. R. Leung

65

Relating the Evolution of Storm Intensity to the Low-Wave Number Depiction of Storm Structure from Satellite-observed Precipitation and Wind of the 2017 Hurricanes Irma, Jose and Maria: Are There Telltale Signs of Forthcoming Rapid Intensification?

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and Z. S. Haddad, T. P. J. Shen, F. J. Turk, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, Q. A. Vu, B. H. Lambrigtsen, and W. L. Poulsen

66

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Young-Kwon Lim, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, R. Kovach, A. Molod, and S. Pawson

Manuscript (14.5 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

67

Instability between the Concentric Eyewalls of Hurricane Maria (2017)

Christopher J. Slocum, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and J. P. Kossin, R. K. Taft, and W. H. Schubert

68

An Analysis of Hurricane Irma's Winds in South Florida

Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA, Miami, FL; and A. B. Hagen and S. Konarik

Manuscript (864.4 kB)

Poster 69 has been moved. New paper number 6A.2A.

70

The Evolution of Hurricane Irma's Wind Field Structure

Cassandra M Leahy, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Tallahassee, FL

71

Preliminary Assessment of Wind- and Storm Surge-Induced Residential Building Damage Caused By Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Richard J Krupar III, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. B. Roueche, D. J. Smith, and F. T. Lombardo

72

Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico: Structure and Intensity Evolution Prior to Landfall

Jose M. Garcia-Rivera, IMSG, Rockville, MD

Poster Session 7

Monsoon

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

73

Seasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon dynamics

74

Intraseasonal Monsoon Phase Transitions Viewed from Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalysis Data Sets

Dipak Sahu, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

75

On the Mei-Yu Rainband and its Role in Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

Juliane Schwendike, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and G. J. Berry and C. E. Birch

76

A Moist Entropy Budget View of South Asian Summer Monsoon Onset

Ding Ma, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and J. Nie, A. H. Sobel, Z. Kuang, and M. S. Singh

77

Synoptic-Dynamic Analysis, Predictability and Convection-Permitting Simulations of an Extreme Precipitation Event Affecting Ho Chi Minh City on 26 September 2016

Roderick van der Linden, Univ. of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and A. H. Fink, M. V. Khiem, T. Phan-Van, and J. G. Pinto

78

On the Maintenance of Large Anomaly Fields during a Record-Breaking Monsoon Drought Via Scale Interactions.

Sarvesh Kumar Dubey, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

Poster Session 8

Numerical Modeling

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

79

Development of Real-Time Multi-Model Verification Website for Tropical Cyclones

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA

80

A Review of the Significant Coastal Flooding Associated with Hurricane Irma along the Southern South Carolina and Northern Georgia Coastlines

Steven P. Rowley, NWS, North Charleston, SC; and C. E. Barnes

81

Large Eddy Simulations of Hurricane Intensification

Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Sroka

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

82

Global 7km Mesh Nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for Improving TYphoon Forecast (TYMIP-G7): Joaquin (2015) and Lionrock (2016) Cases

Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and A. Wada, H. Yoshimura, and R. Onishi

83

Impact of Revisions to RRTMG Cloudy Radiative Transfer on Tropical Cyclone Evolution in HWRF

John M Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and M. J. Iacono, M. K. Biswas, E. Kalina, K. M. Newman, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, E. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

Handout (5.4 MB)

84

A New Coupled Ocean-Wave-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies in the SW Indian Ocean Basin

Joris Pianezze, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint-Denis, France; and C. Barthe, S. Bielli, P. Tulet, S. Jullien, G. Cambon, O. Bousquet, M. Clayes, and E. Cordier

85

Verification of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Nicholas Leonardo, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Poster 86 has been moved. New paper number is 10B.7A

87

Reduced Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Sea Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Environment

Shuai Wang, Imperial College London, London, UK; and R. Toumi

88

An Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Numerical Prediction by Enhancing Humidity in Deep Convetion Region

Jianyong Liu, Ningbo Meteorological Observatory, Ningbo, China

89

Improving the Use of Dropsondes for NOAA Operations: HWRF Vortex-Scale Data Assimilation Applications

Henry Winterbottom, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Sippel, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

90

Performance of MPAS for Tropical Cyclone Prediction in 2016 and 2017 Seasons

Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych, C. Davis, and B. Skamarock

Handout (5.0 MB)

91

Sensitivity of HWRF Simulations to Parameter Variations in the Grell-Freitas Convection Scheme

Evelyn D. Grell, CIRES/ESRL/PSD, DTC, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, G. A. Grell, E. Kalina, K. M. Newman, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

92

Fostering Community Involvement in the Advancement of Physical Parameterizations for the NCEP Global Model

Ligia Bernardet, CU/CIRES at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, L. Nance, B. Kuo, V. Tallapragada, M. Farrar, F. Toepfer, and G. A. Grell

93

Evolution of warm-rain microphysical properties in Typhoon Usagi(2013): A numerical modeling study

Manuscript (227.8 kB)

94

Probabilistic Forecasts of Cyclone-induced Hazards within SPICY Project

Hubert Quetelard, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde, France; and F. Bonnardot, S. Lecacheux, and M. D. Leroux

Handout (1.6 MB)

Poster Session 9

Operations & Landfall

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

95

Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Track Forecast Error on Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Yuan ZHUANG, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and J. Song and Y. Wang

96

A Baseline Storm Surge Ensemble Methodology for Pacific Islands – the PACSURGE System

Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. R. Sampson, Y. Lau, and J. A. Knaff

97

Examining the Sensitivity and Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on North Atlantic Major Hurricane Landfall Drought and Activity

Emma Lilly Levin, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and H. Murakami

Manuscript (313.9 kB)

Handout (12.3 MB)

98

The Potentially Deleterious Impact of Choice of Sea-Level Pressure Calculation in the GFS Model When Determining Cyclone Intensity and Track

Robert Hart, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and L. P. Cowan

Handout (1.8 MB)

99

Factors Important for Tropical Cyclone Tracking in NWP Output

Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

100

Further Improvement in the SHIPS Using Rainfall and Structural Features

Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, and M. DeMaria

Poster Session 10

Climate Change

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

101

Anthropogenic Influences on the Intensity and Rainfall of Major Tropical Cyclone Events

Christina M Patricola, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and M. F. Wehner and D. Stone

102

Analysis of Hurricane Noel (2007) Simulated by Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Julian Eric Gordon, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC

103

Quantifying the Economic Risk of Hurricanes in the U.S. Under a Changing Climate

104

A New Look at the Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall in East Africa

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

105

An Improved Methodology for Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclones Under Changing Climate

Reda Snaiki, Univ. at Buffalo, State Univ. of New York, Buffalo, NY; and T. Wu

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

106

Contribution of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Jiuwei Zhao, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology; Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI

Manuscript (39.0 kB)

107

Is Climate Change Redefining the Speed Limit of Tropical Cyclones?

Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, and H. Murakami

108

North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer Seas

Jill C. Trepanier, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA

109

Damage Associated with Australian East Coast Tropical Cyclones under Climate Change and Preindustrial Conditions

110

Using Tropical Cyclone Genesis Indices to Assess Changes in Tropical Cyclone Seasonality Due to a Warming Climate

Ana P. Torres-Vazquez, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann

Poster Session 11

African Weather and Climate

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

111

The Role of Low-Level Clouds over Southern West Africa in the Regional Monsoon System – Experiments Using the ICON Model

Anke Kniffka, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz and A. H. Fink

112

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

Peter Vogel, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and T. Gneiting

113

High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction over Africa for Operational Use

Caroline L. Bain, UKMO, Exeter, UK; and S. Webster

Interaction Between Deep Convection and African Easterly Waves using Convectively Tracked MCSs

114

The Interaction between Mesoscale Convective Systems and African Easterly Waves

James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer

Handout (882.5 kB)

115

Variability of Interannual-to-Decadal Teleconnections Observed over the Greater Horn of Africa in the 20^th Century

Titike K. Bahaga, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink and P. Knippertz

116

Variability of African Easterly Wave Characteristics

Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and A. Brammer

117

The African Easterly Jet: Structure and Effect on Easterly Wave Development

Amana Hosten, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson

Handout (2.8 MB)

117A

Essential Ingredients and Mechanisms for Extreme Rainfall in East Africa During the 2016 El Nino

Bantwale Diress Enyew, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Poster Session 12

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

118

Evaluation of Initial Sea Surface Temperature Uncertainty on HWRF-Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Xiaohui Zhao, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

119

Forecast Challenges for the Hurricane Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) Model

Anu Simon, Cyberdata Technologies Inc., Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, D. R. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky

120

Four Years of Real-time Probabilistic TC Prediction with the COAMPS-TC Ensemble

121

The Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure Using the Analog Ensemble Technique

Christopher M. Rozoff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Alessandrini, W. E. Lewis, and L. delle Monache

122

Comparison of HWRF Operational Cycles with and without Secondary Eyewalls

Federico DiCatarina, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Abarca, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

123

HWRF Development Constrains by Storm Sample Choice

Kevin J. Dougherty, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, D. T. Kleist, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

124

Improving Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts through Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis Methods

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

125

Real-Time, Ensemble-Based Probabilities of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. DeMaria

126

Further Development of a Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

127

A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclones under the Influence of Terrain

Hao-Yan Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Handout (2.3 MB)

128

Improved Intensity Prediction in COAMPS-TC

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, J. R. Moskaitis, S. Chen, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, P. A. Reinecke, S. Wang, D. R. Ryglicki, and D. P. Stern

129

Sensitivity of HWRF to Outer Domain Size and Multiple Moving Nests

Evaluation of the Large-Scale Environment in NOAA Experimental Models

130

Impact of Different Ocean Conditions Present in the Bay of Bengal on Coupled TC Intensity Prediction

Shyama Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, India; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., S. G. Gopalakrishnan, J. Dong, H. S. Kim, F. D. Marks Jr., and U. C. Mohanty

Handout (1.3 MB)

131

Topology-Based Visualization and Tracking of Hurricane Inner Core Features in HWRF and HMON Models

Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, S. Abarca, Z. Zhang, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra

132

Precipitation Evaluation of the Real-Time Basin-Scale HWRF in 2017

Mu-Chieh Ko, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., G. J. Alaka Jr., and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

Manuscript (983.2 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

133

Toward High Horizontal and Vertical Resolution Convection Resolving Modeling in Operational Hurricane Forecasting

Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, S. Abarca, W. Wang, Q. Liu, K. Wu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

Poster Session 13

Tropical Cyclogenesis

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

134

Kinematics, Dynamics, and Occasionally Moist Thermodynamics of Topographic Vorticity Streamers over the Caribbean Sea

Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

135

Birth of the Biscane

Michael Maier-Gerber, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and F. Pantillon, E. Di Muzio, M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz

136

Why Are There Approximately 100 Tropical Cyclones Annually on Earth?

Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and T. A. Vu and D. R. Chavas

137

Deep Convection and the Initial Vertical Alignment of Tropical Vortices

Charles N Helms, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

138

Multi-Scale Shear Impacts During the Genesis of Typhoon Hagupit (2008)

Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

139

The Role of African Easterly Waves North of the African Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclogenesis

Joshua J. Alland, SUNY, Albany, NY; and Y. M. Cheng, K. L. Corbosiero, C. D. Thorncroft, and B. H. Tang

Handout (7.1 MB)

140

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Formation Rate to Genesis-Potential Parameters in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium.

141

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, A. B. Schumacher, J. H. Cossuth, K. D. Musgrave, and P. Leighton

142

Do Easterly Waves Matter for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis?

Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. D. White and J. O. H. Russell

143

Lower Troposphere Subsidence Warming and its Contribution to Tropical Cyclogenesis

144

Tropical cyclone sensitivities to parameterizations in GCM simulations with uniform thermal forcing

145

Meso-β Scale Vortex Coalescence and its Consequences on Tropical Cyclone Development in Idealized Numerical Experiments

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

146

Improvement of genesis potential index for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones

147

Environmental Flow Patterns of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the western North Pacific

Yoshida Ryuji, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan; and F. Hironori

Handout (438.6 kB)

Poster Session 14

Tropical Extratropical Interactions

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

148

Intensity Variations in Potential Vorticity Streamers: Development Pathways, and Environmental Impacts in the North Atlantic Basin

Philippe P. Papin, NRC / NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. D. Torn and L. F. Bosart

149

Subseasonal Variability of Rossby Wave Breaking and Its Impacts on Tropical Cyclones during the North Atlantic Warm Season

Weiwei Li, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, G. Zhang, M. S. Peng, S. Benjamin, and M. Zhao

150

Linking Short-Term Forecasts of High-Impact Weather over California to Tropical Influences

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

151

Unified West-Coast and Gulf-Coast AR Indices to Study the Hydrological and Cloud-Radiative Effects of the Atmospheric Rivers over the Contiguous US

Chen Zhang, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

152

Different Flavors of Normals: Accounting for ENSO and Climate Change

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC; and A. Arguez, A. K. Inamdar, M. Palecki, and A. H. Young

153

High Latitude Late Season Hurricanes: Changing Risk?

Kimberly Roberts, JLT Re, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Darr

Poster Session 15

Tropical Waves Posters

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

154

Statistical Forecasting of Tropical Rainfall Based on Spatio-Temporal Correlations and Equatorial Waves

Andreas Schlueter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, T. Gneiting, A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz

Poster 155 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.4A.

156

Tropical Wave Diagnostics: From Research to Operations

Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny, M. A. Janiga, and P. P. Papin

157

Revisiting the Vertical Structure of Dry and Moist Kelvin Waves.

Ahmed A. Shaaban, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

158

Tropical Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific

Liang Wu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Wen, R. Wu, and R. Huang

159

Convectively Coupled Equatorial Kelvin Waves and Their Relationship with Easterly Waves over the Intra Americas Seas and Eastern Pacific.

Victor M. Torres, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Manuscript (715.9 kB)

160

Extreme Mountain Gap Wind Events in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec

Adolfo Lugo Rios, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Handout (7.6 MB)

161

Structure and Propagation of Indian Low-Pressure Systems in GFDL AM4.0

Ángel F. Adames, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming

162

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over Tropical South America Region

Victor R. Chavez Sr., NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. N. Kiladis, P. L. Silva Dias, and T. Ambrizzi

CYGNSS and TROPICS: NASA SmallSat Missions to Probe Tropical Cyclones

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan

Speakers: William J. Blackwell, MIT Lincoln Laboratory; Jason P. Dunion, AOML; Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan; Felix C. Seidel, NASA/MSFC; James Doyle, NRL

Workshop

GOES-R Series Workshop: Tropical Applications for Users

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Janel R. Thomas, Science and Technology Corporation

CoChair: Michael J. Folmer, CICS

Speakers: Michael Stringer, NOAA/NESDIS; Janel R. Thomas, Science and Technology Corporation; Michael J. Folmer, CICS; Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.; John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

Registration

Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 8A

Tropical Waves

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma

8:00 AM

8A.1

Multiscale Organization in Simulated Shear Parallel Mesoscale Convective Systems

Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. Han

8:15 AM

8A.2

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Synoptic-Scale Equatorial Waves

Qiu Yang, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, UAE; and A. Majda

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Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8A.3

Synoptic-Scale Waves in Sheared Background Flow over the Western North Pacific

Tao Feng, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and R. Huang, X. Q. Yang, W. Zhou, L. Wu, and D. Yang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

8A.4

Gravity Waves in a Moist Atmosphere: A Mechanistic Picture

8:45 AM

8A.4A

Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Caribbean Low-Level Jet on East Pacific Easterly Wave Dynamics

Justin W. Whitaker, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

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8A.5

Atmospheric Equatorial Kelvin Waves in Lagrantian Framework - Interactions with Local Environment and Its Impact for Their Propagation

9:00 AM

8A.5A

The Structure and Poleward Propagation Mechanism of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Ding Ma, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and J. Nie

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9:15 AM

8A.6

Modulation of Tropical Cloud Clusters’ Zonal Propagation By Super Cloud Clusters

Joaquin E. Blanco, Univ. of Miami / RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

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9:30 AM

8A.7

Genesis of Easterly Waves over the Intra Americas Seas and tropical Eastern Pacific.

Victor M. Torres, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

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9:45 AM

8A.8

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Tropical Cyclone Activity in a TC-Permitting Global Atmospheric Model

Erica M. Staehling, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ

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Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

Numerical Modeling I

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School

8:00 AM

8B.1

The Impact of Recently Implemented and Planned Changes to the Met Office Global Model on Tropical Cyclone Performance

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and M. Vellinga

Recorded Presentation
Audio File Manuscript (817.5 kB)

8:15 AM

8B.2

Météo-France New NWP Models in Tropical Regions

Ghislain Faure, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and P. Chambon and C. Lebeaupin Brossier

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Handout (74.0 MB)

8:30 AM

8B.3

Evaluation of the Performance of the GFDL FV3 Forecast Model on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Prediction

Morris A. Bender, Princeton Univ. AOS, Princeton, NJ; and A. Hazelton, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

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8:45 AM

8B.4

An Evaluation of Surface Wind Structure Forecasts from the fvGFS and Operational Dynamical Models

Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, A. Hazelton, and S. J. Lin

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9:00 AM

8B.5

Direct Verification of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Mike Fiorino, CIRES, Boulder, CO

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9:15 AM

8B.6

High-Resolution Hurricane Reanalysis and Reforecasts Using State-of-the-Art Operational HWRF Model

Zaizhong Ma, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. Mehra and V. Tallapragada

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Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8B.7

3-km Nested fvGFS Forecasts of 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Andrew Hazelton, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. Harris, S. J. Lin, M. A. Bender, and M. J. Morin

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9:45 AM

8B.8

Tropical Cyclone Prediction Skill and MJO Dependence in the S2S Dataset

Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, and M. K. Tippett

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Session 8C

Tropical Cyclone Structure V

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ.

8:00 AM

8C.1

The Synergistic Effect of Midlevel Dry Air and Vertical Wind Shear on the Development of the Tropical Cyclone Secondary Circulation

Joshua J. Alland, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and K. L. Corbosiero

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8:15 AM

8C.2

Double Warm-Core Structure of Typhoon Lan (2017) as Observed through Upper-Tropospheric Aircraft Reconnaissance during T-PARCII

Hiroyuki Yamada, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan; and K. Tsuboki, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Ito, M. Yamaguchi, and T. Nakazawa

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8:30 AM

8C.3

Analyzing the Thermodynamic Impact of Shear on Tropical Cyclones using Dropsondes

Emily Paltz, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and L. Nguyen, R. F. Rogers, and J. Zawislak

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8:45 AM

8C.4A

A Direct Observation study on the Horizontal Helical Rolls in the Typhoon Boundary Layer

Jie Tang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration, PRC, Shanghai, China; and P. W. Chan and X. Lei

9:00 AM

8C.5

The Anatomy of a Convective Envelope in Sheared, Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Ryglicki, J. H. Cossuth, D. Hodyss, Y. Jin, and K. C. Viner

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9:15 AM

8C.6

Understanding Atypical Mid-Level Wind Speed Maxima in Hurricane Eyewalls

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Kepert, J. D. Doyle, and G. H. Bryan

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9:30 AM

8C.7

The Impact of Environmental Inertial Stability on the Secondary Circulation of Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclones

Morgan E O'Neill, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and D. R. Chavas

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9:45 AM

8C.8

The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle in CM1 Using an Ensemble Approach

Sarah Dunn Ditchek, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari, R. G. Fovell, and K. L. Corbosiero

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Session 8D

NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jason P. Dunion, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD

CoChair: Gary A. Wick, NOAA-OAR, Earth Systems Research Laboratory

8:00 AM

8D.1

SHOUT: A Project Overview, Operations Summary, and Introduction to Its Forecast Impact for Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Gary A. Wick, NOAA-OAR, Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Dunion, R. E. Hood, P. G. Black, P. M. Kenul, J. J. Coffey, and M. L. Black

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8:15 AM

8D.2

The High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) on the Global Hawk for TC Reconnaissance: Observations during the SHOUT Campaign

Shannon T. Brown, JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and B. Lambrigtsen, M. Schreier, B. H. Lim, I. Ramos, and A. Tanner

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8D.3

Observing System Simulation Experiments with observations from the Global Hawk: impact on global and hurricane prediction systems

8:30 AM

8D.3A

Highlights of Global Hawk HIWRAP Radar Measurements During NOAA SHOUT Hurricane Flights

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. R. Guimond, M. McLinden, and L. Li

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8:45 AM

8D.4

Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts

Hui Christophersen, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and S. Aberson

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9:00 AM

8D.5

Impact of Global Hawk Dropsonde Data Assimilated in the NCEP GFS Model during SHOUT: Hurricane Matthew and an Extratropical Storm over Alaska in 2016

Andrew C. Kren, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Cucurull

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Handout (20.9 MB)

9:15 AM

8D.6

The Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on NCEP Hurricane Forecasts

Jason A. Sippel, AOML, Miami, FL; and K. L. Howard and V. Tallapragada

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9:30 AM

8D.7

Emerging Airborne Technologies for improved TC Track and Intensity Forecasting: A vision for the next Decade based on Preliminary Observations from SHOUT and EPOCH Programs

Peter G Black, NOAA, Salinas, CA; and A. E. Emory, G. Wick, J. Dunion, J. A. Sippel, V. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, L. Magnusson, and M. L. Dahoui

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9:45 AM

8D.8

It Takes Two: NASA and NOAA's Shared Path of Hurricane Science Flights with the Global Hawk. Time for the Research To Operations (R2O) Transition?

Amber E. Emory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Wick, J. P. Dunion, M. McLinden, M. Schreier, P. G. Black, R. E. Hood, J. A. Sippel, and V. Tallapragada

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Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 9A

Climate and Large-Scale Circulation

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Liguang Wu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology

CoChair: James Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

10:30 AM

9A.1

Patterns of North Atlantic Decadal Variability and Hurricane Intensity Change

James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and M. Ting, S. Camargo, and K. Emanuel

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10:45 AM

9A.2

Bifurcated Tropical Convergence Zones in Matsuno–Gill-Type Models

Ori Adam, Hebrew Univ., Jerusalem, Israel

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11:00 AM

9A.3

The Role of the Cloud Radiative Effect in the Sensitivity of the ITCZ to Convective Mixing.

Joshua F Talib, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and S. Woolnough, N. P. Klingaman, and C. E. Holloway

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11:15 AM

9A.4

Intensity Variations of Summertime South Asia High and its Impacts on Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Xiaofang Feng, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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11:30 AM

9A.5

The Effect of Large-Scale 16-Day Free Rossby Waves on Tropical Convection.

Ernesto W. Findlay, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

11:45 AM

9A.6

Energetic Constraints and the ITCZ in Idealized Simulations with a Seasonal Cycle

Ho-Hsuan Wei, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

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12:00 PM

9A.7

Impacts of the Boreal Spring Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Hadley Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Yi-Peng Guo, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Z. M. Tan

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Session 9B

Numerical Modeling II

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office

10:30 AM

9B.1

The Performance of the NCEP and ECMWF Operational Models for Tropical Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts during 2015-2016

George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, N. Sakaeda, P. Bechtold, and T. Haiden

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10:45 AM

9B.2

Evaluating Tropical Cyclones Simulated by a Global Convection-Permitting Model.

K. Ryder Fox, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and F. Judt and D. Ahijevych

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11:00 AM

9B.3

How Well Can the Met Office Unified Model Predict Tropical Cyclones?

Christopher Short, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and J. Petch and S. Webster

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11:15 AM

9B.4

Tropical Cyclones in the Global 8.5km GFDL fvGFS

Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Zhou, L. M. Harris, and S. Rees

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11:30 AM

9B.5

Tropical Cyclones and Resolution Sensitivity in HighResMIP GCMs

Malcolm J. Roberts, UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK; and P. L. Vidale, K. Hodges, L. P. Caron, R. Haarsma, E. Scoccimarro, and A. Bellucci

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11:45 AM

9B.6

A Probabilistic Evaluation of Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the Upgraded Met Office MOGREPS-G Ensemble, and the Value of Multi-Model Ensembles

Helen A. Titley, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and R. Stretton

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12:00 PM

9B.7

Probabilistic Analysis of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season from a Continuously Cycled Basin-Scale HWRF Data Assimilation and Prediction System

Jonathan Poterjoy, NOAA, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, J. A. Sippel, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, A. Aksoy, and X. Wang

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Session 9C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity I: External Influences

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, NCAR

10:30 AM

9C.1

Does Cooler Air Near the Top of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Play a Role in Hurricane Intensity Change during Hurricane-SAL Interactions?

Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Shi, J. A. Sippel, T. Matsui, and W. K. Tao

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Handout (15.4 MB)

10:45 AM

9C.2

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs

Michael S. Fischer, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and K. L. Corbosiero

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11:00 AM

9C.3

Evolution of Environmental Characteristics in Rapidly Intensifying and Slowly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

Xinxi Wang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

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11:15 AM

9C.4

Predictability of Tropical Cyclones: A Comparison of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and Typhoon Hagupit (2014) Using Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts

John Ashcroft, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK

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11:30 AM

9C.5

Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models

Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, D. Kim, Y. Moon, M. Bosilovich, H. Murakami, K. A. Reed, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao

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11:45 AM

9C.6

Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Weakening on a Global Scale

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS

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9C.7

Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

12:00 PM

9C.7A

The SWIO-TC Experiment: A Field Experiment to Improve Understanding and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in the SW Indian Ocean

Olivier Bousquet, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint-Denis, Reunion; and J. P. Duvel, R. F. Rogers, P. Caroff, F. Roux, and P. Tulet

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Session 9D

Boundary Layer UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Joseph J. Cione, NOAA

Cochairs: Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami; George H. Bryan, NCAR

10:30 AM

9D.1

Coyote UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017)

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, K. Ryan, J. A. Zhang, B. A. Dahl, E. A. Kalina, E. J. Dumas Jr., R. J. Dobosy, G. H. Bryan, A. Farber, C. Troudt, B. Kent, B. B. Baker, M. S. Buban, R. Wiggins, T. Lee, F. D. Marks, G. deBoer, C. Fairall, B. W. Klotz, H. Holbach, J. Zawislak, and G. R. Halliwell Jr.

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10:45 AM

9D.2

A First Look at Turbulence Intensity at Low Altitude in the Eyewall of a Hurricane from Coyote small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (sUAS)

Ronald J. Dobosy, NOAA and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN; and E. J. Dumas Jr., G. H. Bryan, E. A. Kalina, J. A. Zhang, C. Troudt, A. Farber, J. J. Cione, C. B. Baker, T. Lee, A. Aksoy, M. K. Biswas, G. de Boer, B. A. Dahl, C. Fairall, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, F. D. Marks, K. Ryan, R. Wiggins, and J. Zawislak

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11:00 AM

9D.3

Using Coyote UAS Observations to Evaluate Large-Eddy Simulations (and Vice Versa)

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Aksoy, B. Baker, J. J. Cione, B. A. Dahl, G. de Boer, R. J. Dobosy, E. Dumas, C. Fairall, A. Farber, G. R. Halliwell Jr., E. A. Kalina, B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, T. Lee, F. Marks, K. Ryan, C. Troudt, R. Wiggins, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang

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11:15 AM

9D.4

A Data Impact Study Using Coyote UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017)

Altug Aksoy, AOML, Miami, FL; and B. A. Dahl, R. Wiggins, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, F. D. Marks Jr., and H. Holbach

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11:30 AM

9D.5

Improving Coyote UAS Tropical Cyclone Sampling Strategies in an OSSE

Brittany A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, R. Wiggins, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. A. Kalina, J. Zhang, H. Holbach, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, and F. D. Marks Jr.

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11:45 AM

9D.6

Impact of Ensemble-Based Targeting for Coyote UAS Observations in an OSSE

Rani Wiggins, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Dahl, A. Aksoy, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, F. D. Marks Jr., and H. Holbach

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12:00 PM

9D.7

Using Conventional Observations and Coyote UAS Data to Evaluate the Grell-Freitas Cumulus Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

Evan A. Kalina, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and E. Grell, M. K. Biswas, G. A. Grell, K. M. Newman, J. J. Cione, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, J. Frimel, A. Aksoy, B. B. Baker, G. H. Bryan, B. A. Dahl, G. de Boer, R. J. Dobosy, E. J. Dumas Jr., C. W. Fairall, A. Farber, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, T. Lee, K. Ryan, C. Troudt, R. Wiggins, R. Worsnop, J. Zawislak, and J. A. Zhang

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Lunch Break

Session 10A

Intraseasonal Variability and MJO I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech; Charles Jones, Univ. of California

1:30 PM

10A.1

Dependence of MJO Phase Speed on Background Flow

Paul E. Roundy, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and R. M. Setzenfand

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1:45 PM

10A.2

Mitigating the MJO-Mean State Trade-Off Syndrome with a Parameterization of Convective Organization

Daehyun Kim, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. S. Ahn and S. Park

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2:00 PM

10A.3

Unified Spectrum of Tropical Rainfall and Waves in a Simple Stochastic Model

Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Hottovy

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2:15 PM

10A.4

The Role of Large-Scale Environment and Convective Diurnal Cycle in the Propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent

Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Wu, X. Jiang, and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10A.5

A Study of Moisture Budget of Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Ching-Shu Hung, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui and W. T. Chen

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2:45 PM

10A.6

The MJO in the Navy Earth System Model: An Overview of Predictive Skill and Impacts

Matthew Adam Janiga, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. Reynolds

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3:00 PM

10A.7

Relationship Between Phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and MJO Propagation Through the Maritime Continent

Casey R Densmore, US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett, E. R. Sanabia, and P. Ray

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3:15 PM

10A.8

The Madden-Julian Oscillation's Influence on Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfalls

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. C. J. Oliver, C. J. Schreck III, M. M. Bell, and S. G. Bowen

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Session 10B

Numerical Modeling III

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael Fiorino, NOAA

1:30 PM

10B.1

An Analysis of Global Climate Model Simulated Madden-Julian Oscillation with Fully Closed Moist Static Energy Budget

Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, X. Jiang, and B. Xiang

10B.2

Coastal Tropical Convection in a Stochastic Modeling Framework

1:45 PM

10B.2A

Effects of Tropospheric Temperature Structure on the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Shota Yamasaki, Kyoto Univ., Uji, Japan; and T. Takemi

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2:00 PM

10B.3

Large Eddy Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Evolution

Liguang Wu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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2:15 PM

10B.4

Evaluation and Modification of a TKE-based PBL Scheme in HMON

Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

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Handout (480.9 kB)

2:30 PM

10B.5

Improvements to Boundary-Layer Representation in Convection-Resolving Global-to-Regional Forecasts using GFDL fvGFS

Lucas Harris, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. Gao, H. Shin, and A. Hazelton

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2:45 PM

10B.6

Evaluating the Impact of Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization into Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria Simulations Using FV3GFS

Keren Rosado, NCAS/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, E. A. Kalina, and M. Fiorino

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10B.7

Explicitly simulated lightning within Medicanes: comparisons with observations

3:00 PM

10B.7A

The Effects of Vortex Initialization to TC Track and Intensity Prediction of Regional Model

Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC, Beijing, China

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3:15 PM

10B.8

Impact of Differences in Initial Conditions on Rapid Intensification Forecasting for NCEP Hurricane Models

Lin Zhu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, Q. Liu, W. Wang, K. Wu, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

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Session 10C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity II: Rapid Intensification

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany

1:30 PM

10C.1

The Role of Downshear Reformation in the Rapid Intensification of a Tropical Cyclone

Xiaomin Chen, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang, J. Fang, and M. Xue

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1:45 PM

10C.2

The Extreme Intensification and Predictability of 2015's Hurricane Patricia

Falko Judt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fox

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2:00 PM

10C.3

The Diurnal Variation of Deep Convective Cells in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Rapid Intensification

Jaedeok Lee, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

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2:15 PM

10C.4

The Role of the WISHE Mechanism in Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Chieh-Jen Cheng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

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2:30 PM

10C.5

Impacts of SST Patterns on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)

Sachie Kanada, Nagoya Univ., Nagoya, Japan; and S. Tsujino, H. Aiki, M. K. Yoshioka, Y. Miyazawa, K. Tsuboki, and I. Takayabu

2:45 PM

10C.6

Examining Hurricane GPROF Rain Rates and Latent Heating Profiles and Relationships to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and P. J. Brown

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3:00 PM

10C.7

Low-Wave Number Analysis of Observations and Ensemble Forecasts to Develop Metrics for the Selection of Most Realistic Members to Study Multi-scale Interactions Between the Environment and the Convective Organization of Hurricanes: Focus on Rapid Intensification

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. Chen, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. S. Haddad

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3:15 PM

10C.8

An Analysis of Hurricane Edouard SST Sensitivity Runs By HWRF in a Neutral-Shear Environment

Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and J. Dong, Y. Lau, H. S. Kim, L. Zhu, and A. Mehra

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Session 10D

TC Remote Sensing I

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Haiyan Jiang, Florida International Univ.; Derrick Herndon, Univ. of Wisconsin

1:30 PM

10D.1

A Global Tropical Cyclone Eye Climatology from HURSAT B1

Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and C. S. Velden and A. Wimmers

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1:45 PM

10D.2

Improved Eyewall Replacement Cycle Forecasting Using a Modified Microwave-Based Algorithm

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin and D. C. Herndon

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2:00 PM

10D.3

Ocean Surface Stress Under Tropical Cyclones Observed from Space

W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie and W. Tang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10D.4

A Moisture In-Flux Storm Tool for Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting

Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. L. Beven

Recorded Presentation

10D.5

Identification of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones Affected by Significant Dry Air Events in Total Precipitable Water Imagery (1987-2015)

2:30 PM

10D.5A

GOES-16: A Game Changer for Hurricane Forecasting

Michael Stringer, NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD

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2:45 PM

10D.6

A Satellite-based Analysis of Mid-Tropospheric Humidity and Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Brian J. Soden, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. S. Chung, D. Yeomans, and J. H. Cossuth

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3:00 PM

10D.7

GOES-16 ABI & GLM L2+ Product Operational Status

Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Seybold, J. Daniels, E. M. Kline, and T. Feroli

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3:15 PM

10D.8

Intensity and Size of Strong Tropical Cyclones in 2017 from NASA's SMAP L-Band Radiometer

Thomas Meissner, Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., Santa Rosa, CA; and L. Ricciardulli, F. Wentz, and C. Sampson

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Handout (3.0 MB)

Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 11A

Intraseasonal Variability and MJO II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy; Paul Roundy, SUNY

4:00 PM

11A.1

Surface Fluxes and Beyond: Direct and Indirect Ocean Feedbacks to the MJO in Four GCMs

Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and N. P. Klingaman, W. L. Tseng, M. A. Burt, and D. A. Randall

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4:15 PM

11A.2

A Unified Moisture Mode Framework for Seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Xianan Jiang, Univ. of California, Pasadena, CA; and Á. F. Adames, M. Zhao, E. D. Maloney, and D. E. Waliser

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4:30 PM

11A.3

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Mean Global Easterly Winds

Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs and D. J. Raymond

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4:45 PM

11A.4

Evolution of Upper Tropospheric Zonal Momentum over the Western Indian Ocean Preceding Madden-Julian Oscillation Deep Convective Onset

Jennifer A. Gahtan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

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5:00 PM

11A.5

Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations in the MJO Skeleton Model with Observation-Based Forcing

H. Reed Ogrosky, Virginia Commonwealth Univ., Richmond, VA; and S. N. Stechmann and A. J. Majda

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5:15 PM

11A.6

Effects of Surface Orography and Land–Sea Contrast on the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent: A Numerical Study Using ECHAM5-SIT

Wan-Ling Tseng, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan

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5:30 PM

11A.7

Simulating November DYNAMO MJO Event with a Couple Regional Model: Comparisons between the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent

Xiaowen Li, Morgan State Univ., Greenbelt, MD; and T. Iguchi, S. D. Nicholls, and W. K. Tao

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5:45 PM

11A.8

Predictability of the MJO at Convective Initiation

Rachel C. Zelinsky, RSMAS, Miami, FL

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Session 11B

Catastrophe Modeling

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter Wolf, NOAA/NWS

4:00 PM

11B.1

How Often Should We Expect Losses on the Scale of Harvey or Irma?

Annes Haseemkunju, CoreLogic, Oakland, CA; and M. Khater, D. F. Smith, and J. Brolley

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4:15 PM

11B.2

New Storm Surge Catastrophe Model for Great Britain and Beyond

Richard M. Yablonsky, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Keshtpoor and A. Blair

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Handout (2.6 MB)

4:30 PM

11B.3

Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Hindcasting Using ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System

Nadia Bloemendaal, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands; and S. Muis, R. Haarsma, M. Irazoqui Apecechea, M. Verlaan, H. de Moel, P. J. Ward, and J. C. J. H. Aerts

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11B.4

What Value do Natural Coastlines have in Reducing Hurricane Storm Surge Risk?

Siddarth Narayan, Univ. of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA; and M. W. Beck, P. S. Wilson, C. J. Thomas, A. Guerrero, C. C. Shepard, B. G. Reguero, G. E. Franco, J. C. Ingram, and D. Trespalacios

5:00 PM

11B.5

Sensitivity Analysis of Upwind Fetches for More Accurate Effective Roughness in Landfalling Hurricanes

Sylvie Lorsolo, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Clavner, P. J. Sousounis, S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, and E. W. Uhlhorn

5:15 PM

11B.6

Tropical Cyclone Hazards in a Changing Climate – Results from a New, Columbia Hazard Model

Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo

5:30 PM

11B.7

Probabilistic Temporal Extension of a New Parametric Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Model

Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and E. W. Uhlhorn and M. Clavner

5:45 PM

11B.8

A Hurricane Boundary Layer Model for Simulating Surface Winds during Hurricane Landfall

Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and C. Nowakowski and K. Gao

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Session 11C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity III: Boundary Layer Processes

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

4:00 PM

11C.1

The Impact of Surface Heat Fluxes Outside the Inner Core on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Soudelor (2015)

Chin-Hsuan Peng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

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4:15 PM

11C.2

Observed Features of the Hurricane Inner-core Boundary Layer During Intensity Change

Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and R. Hart

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4:30 PM

11C.3

Observed Difference in the Axisymmetric Boundary-Layer Structure between Intensifying and Steady-State Hurricanes

Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers

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4:45 PM

11C.4

The Role of Boundary Layer Dynamics in Tropical Cyclone Intensification – Part I: Results from a Simplified Framework

Yuqing Wang, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and T. H. Li

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5:00 PM

11C.5

The Role of Boundary Layer Dynamics in Tropical Cyclone Intensification - Part II: Results from the Full-physics Model TCM4

Tsung-Han Li, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

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5:15 PM

11C.6

A Prognostic Axisymmetric Balance Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and H. H. Bui

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5:30 PM

11C.7

Revisiting the Boundary Layer Spin Up Mechanism in Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Refuting Recent Challenges.

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith and J. Persing

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

11C.8

Revisiting the Boundary Layer Spin Up Mechanism in Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Quantifying Departures from Ekman-like Balance and Searching for Shock-like Structures in Idealized 3D Simulations

John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and R. K. Smith

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Session 11D

TC Remote Sensing II

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin; Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin−Madison

4:00 PM

11D.1

The Naval Research Laboratory Tropical Cyclone Webpage (NRL TC Web): Providing Real-Time Storm Monitoring for 20 Years

Joshua H. Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Richardson, M. L. Surratt, R. L. Bankert, C. R. Sampson, J. Kent, and J. D. Hawkins

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11D.2

Overview and Performance Simulations of the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission

William J. Blackwell, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, T. Greenwald, D. C. Herndon, M. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, R. Atlas, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr., R. Rogers, B. Annane, and H. Christophersen

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11D.3

Applications of NASA TROPICS Data for Tropical Cyclone Analysis, Nowcasting, and Impacts

Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. P. Dunion, W. J. Blackwell, S. Braun, D. S. Green, C. S. Velden, R. F. Adler, J. H. Cossuth, J. J. Murray, and M. J. Brennan

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11D.4

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation from the TROPICS CubeSat Satellite Constellation

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. Velden, R. Bennartz, and Z. Li

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11D.5

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Assessment Using Dropsondes

Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Biswas

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11D.6

Fine-Scale Winds in Super Intense Hurricanes Observed from Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)

5:15 PM

11D.6A

Climatology of Precipitation Types in Tropical Cyclones Using Version 7 of the TRMM PR 2A23 Product

Cheng Tao, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

11D.7

Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Using the Cloud-Top Winds Derived from Himawari-8 Super Rapid Scan Observations

Ryo Oyama, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

11D.8

Hurricane Boundary Layer Wind Profiles Estimated From Satellite SAR Images

Ralph C. Foster, APL, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. A. Zhang and P. G. Black

Reception

Location: Sawgrass Pool (Sawgrass Marriott)

Registration

Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 12A

Intraseasonal Variability and MJO III

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Daehyun Kim, Univ. of Washington; Ángel F. Adames, GFDL

8:00 AM

12A.1

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the West Pacific Warm Pool

David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12A.2

Physical Mechanisms Associated with Propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO)

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and C. R. Densmore, P. Ray, and E. R. Sanabia

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12A.3

Enhancement of MJO Variability in GFDL CM4 by Modulating SST Patterns

Kuniaki Inoue, GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

12A.4

Roles of the Moisture and Wave Feedbacks in Shaping the Madden-Julian Oscillation

8:45 AM

12A.4A

MJO-QBO Connection Revealed from Tracking MJO precipitation

Chidong Zhang, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and B. S. Zhang

12A.5

A Possible Mechanism for Simulating a Stronger Madden-Julian Oscillation in Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Models

9:00 AM

12A.5A

On the Relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Hadley and Walker Circulations

Juliane Schwendike, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and G. J. Berry, K. Fodor, and M. J. Reeder

9:15 AM

12A.6

Topography, Diurnal Cycle and the MJO in the Maritime Continent

Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and H. Tan and B. S. Barrett

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12A.7

MJO Phase Speeds: Using MIROC5 and ERA-Interim to Analyze Impacts on Global Circulation

Kaitlyn Krzyzaniak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

12A.8

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Lindsey N. Long, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI field campaign I

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: James Doyle, NRL; Patrick A. Harr, Jupiter Technology

8:00 AM

12B.1

Impact of Assimilating Outflow Layer Dropsonde Observations Collected during the TCI Field Campaign on the Prediction of Intensity and Structure of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Jie Feng, School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12B.2

Numerical Simulation of Rapid Intensifying Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Nannan Qin, Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China; and D. L. Zhang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12B.3

Potential Vorticity Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. Martinez, J. D. Doyle, and R. F. Rogers

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

12B.4

Validation of COAMPS-TC Forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) using TCI Observations

8:45 AM

12B.4A

On the Hypothesized Outflow Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and J. Persing and R. K. Smith

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12B.6

Simulating the Southwestward Looping Track and Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

William J. S. Miller, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12B.5A

Evaluation of COAMPS-TC Forecasts For Hurricane Patricia (2015) Using a New Dynamic Initialization Scheme with ONR TCI Datasets

Mary S. Jordan, NPS, CA; and E. A. Hendricks, R. L. Elsberry, K. Breach, C. S. Velden, and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12B.7

Multi-Scale Sensitivity and Predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Holdaway, W. A. Komaromi, J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke, and C. M. Amerault

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

12B.8

Analysis of the Outflow Interactions of 2015 Hurricanes Marty and Joaquin using Ensemble Techniques: a Perspective Informed by Observations from the TCI Experiment

Robert Kelnosky, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and W. E. Lewis

Session 12C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV: Axisymmetric Dynamics

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brian Tang, SUNY

8:00 AM

12C.1

Exploring the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Emanuel, M. K. Biswas, E. A. Hendricks, and C. M. Rozoff

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12C.2

Physical Understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationship

Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Reed and J. A. Knaff

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12C.3

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensification of a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone

Jing Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, China, Beijng, China

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12C.4

Upper Tropospheric Temperature Impacts in Idealized Hurricanes

Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (780.8 kB)

9:00 AM

12C.5

A Generalized Potential Intensity Formulation for Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Models

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12C.6

Hurricane Maximum Intensity Stability

Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and Q. Wang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12C.7

Available Potential Energy Density Budget for an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone

Bethan L. Harris, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and R. Tailleux, C. E. Holloway, and P. L. Vidale

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.7 MB)

9:45 AM

12C.8

Evaluation of a Time-Dependent Model for the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Ke Peng, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and R. Rotunno and G. H. Bryan

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (631.6 kB)

Session 12D

Convection I

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California; Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT

8:00 AM

12D.1

Convective Process Experiment (CPEX) 2017

Shuyi S Chen, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. J. Zipser

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12D.2

Isolated vs. Organized Oceanic Convection during CPEX 2017: Relationship with Environmental Conditions

Edward J. Zipser, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12D.3

Re-examining the Non-Linear Moisture-Precipitation Relationship in SSM/I Version 7

Stephanie S. Rushley, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, C. Bretherton, and M. S. Ahn

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12D.4

Analysis of the Temperature Structures Associated with Tropical Precipitation

Meri Virman, Univ. of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; and M. Bister, V. A. Sinclair, H. Järvinen, and J. Räisänen

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12D.5

Radiative Invigoration of Tropical Convection by Preceding Cirrus Clouds

Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya Univ., Nagoya, Japan; and S. Bony

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12D.6

Evaluating Lagrangian Model Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Metrics for Balanced Dynamics

Sharon Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and K. R. Fox, S. Sentic, and P. T. Haertel

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12D.7

Mesoscale Convective Systems of Super-Parameterized CAM and the Response of CAM in the Tropics

Gino Chen, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

12D.8

Impact of Saharan Dust Aerosols on Convections over the Tropical East Atlantic Ocean

Yongsheng Chen, York Univ., Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Mamun and J. Liang

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 13A

Intraseasonal Variability and MJO IV

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State Univ.; Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology

10:30 AM

13A.1

Multiscale Structure of the Slow Kelvin Waves That Make up the MJO

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and G. N. Kiladis, J. Dias, and T. Nasuno

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13A.2

Circumglobal Propagation of Successive MJO Events in MERRA-2

Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13A.3

Planetary Scale Intraseasonal Disturbances

Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13A.4

Orographic Effects on the Propagation and Rainfall Modification Associated with the 2007-08 Madden-Julian Oscillation Over the New Guinea Mountains

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and J. G. Riley, W. Agyakwah, and H. H. Hsu

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13A.5

Elevated Heat Source and the Eastward Propagation of the Low-level Response

Yan Liu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Z. M. Tan and Z. Wu

11:45 AM

13A.6

Impact of the Boreal Summer Quasi-biweekly Oscillation on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Haikun Zhao, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

13A.7

Experimental Subseasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation

Baoqiang Xiang, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI field campaign II

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC; Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL

10:30 AM

13B.1

Upper-Tropospheric Static Stability in Tropical Cyclones: Observations and Modeling

Patrick Duran, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (985.6 kB)

13B.2

Inertial Frequency as a Measure of Tropical Cyclone Inertial Resistance

10:45 AM

13B.2A

Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments

Robert G. Nystrom, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang, E. B. Munsell, S. A. Braun, J. A. Sippel, Y. Weng, and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

11:00 AM

13B.3

The Influence of the Upper-Level Environmental Flow on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Predictability

Yi Dai, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and D. S. Nolan

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13B.4

An Evaluation of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) Characteristics in Tropical Cyclones Using TCI HDSS Dropsondes

Brian D. McNoldy, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden and S. J. Majumdar

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13B.5

Use of TCI-15 Datasets to Demonstrate New-Generation Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Improved Tropical Cyclone Predictions

Russell L. Elsberry, Univ. Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO; and E. A. Hendricks, C. S. Velden, M. M. Bell, M. S. Peng, E. DeLap, and A. Zhao

11:45 AM

13B.6

Improved COAMPS-TC Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using a Dynamic Initialization Scheme With Rapid-Scan Atmospheric Motion Vectors and ONR TCI datasets

Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry, M. M. Bell, C. Velden, E. DeLap, and M. S. Peng

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

13B.7

Improved NAVGEM Tropical Cyclone Predictions from Upscaled COAMPS Dynamic Initialization Analyses that have Incorporated Rapid Scan Atmospheric Motion Vectors During the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-15) Field Experiment

Melinda S Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Hendricks, R. L. Elsberry, C. S. Velden, and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

Session 13C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity V: Three-Dimensional Dynamics

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA

10:30 AM

13C.1

The Role of Vorticity Aggregation in the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)

Sam Hardy, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and J. Schwendike, C. E. Birch, and R. K. Smith

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13C.2

Isentropic Analysis on the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Juan Fang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and O. Pauluis and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13C.3

How Does the Diurnal Radiative Heating Cycle Impact the Genesis and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?

James H. Ruppert Jr., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13C.4

Signature of Tropical Cyclone Intensification: An Assessment of Frozen Water Content in Numerical Simulations

Shun-Nan Wu, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden, D. S. Nolan, and Y. Miyamoto

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (309.0 kB)

11:30 AM

13C.5

Multi-Scale Asymptotics for Strongly Tilted Tropical Vortices

Rupert Klein, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13C.6

Vortex Alignment Processes in Vertically Sheared Tropical Storms

Paul Reasor, NOAA, Miami, FL

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Paper 13C.7 has been withdrawn.

12:00 PM

13C.7A

The Response of Tropical Cyclones to Diurnal Heating As Seen in a Linear Dynamical Model

Rebecca C Evans, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.5 MB)

Session 13D

Convection II

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California; Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT

10:30 AM

13D.1

The Virtual Effect of Water Vapor Helps Shape Basic Features of Convective Self-Aggregation

Seth Seidel, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and D. Yang

Recorded Presentation

13D.2

Simulating Convective Self-Aggregation in a Shallow Water Model

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13D.3

Convective Aggregation in Realistic Convective-Scale Simulations

Christopher E. Holloway, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13D.4

A Spectral Budget for the Size of Convective Self-Aggregation

Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. W. Cronin and K. Emanuel

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13D.5

Convective Cold Pool Responses to Changes in Sea-Surface Temperature

Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13D.6

Sensitivity of Tropical Climate to Convective Parameterization in Single Column CAM

I-Kuan Hu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. E. Mapes, R. B. Neale, A. Gettelman, and K. A. Reed

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

13D.7

Cloud Regimes As Phase Transitions

Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Hottovy

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 14A

Bill Gray Session: Up Moist, Down Dry

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael Fiorino, NOAA

1:30 PM

14A.1

The Impact of Bill Gray on Our Science: A Personal Overview Based on 55 Years of Interactions

Edward J. Zipser, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14A.2

Unraveling the Mysteries of the Tropics: A Tribute to Bill Gray

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14A.3

Tropical Cyclone Composite Studies - A Gray Area

Matthew D. Eastin, Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC

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Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14A.4

In-up-and-out — William M. Gray’s Contribution and Legacy to Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Characteristics

Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and J. A. Knaff

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14A.5

Tropical Cyclone Movement - Bill Gray's Contributions

Johnny C. L. Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and R. L. Elsberry

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14A.6

Bill Gray and His Students' Impacts on TC Genesis Theory and Forecasting

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

14A.7

34 Years of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14A.8

Dr. Gray's Contributions on Tropical Cyclone Climate Variability and Change

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

TC Rainbands & Precip I

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Cheng-Ku Yu, National Taiwan Univ.; Michael Bell, NCAR

1:30 PM

14B.1

Global Hurricane GPROF Rain Rates, Hydrometeor Profiles and Latent Heat Profiles over Oceans.

Paula J. Brown, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. D. Musgrave

1:45 PM

14B.2

Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Distribution from Satellite Observations

Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Modi, T. R. Whitcomb, K. A. Richardson, and J. H. Cossuth

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14B.3

A Satellite and Radar Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Principal Rainbands

Anna Vaughan, The Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

2:15 PM

14B.4

Using GOES-16 to Analyze and Verify Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in Non-Radar Regions

Michael J. Folmer, CICS, College Park, MD; and M. L. Bozeman, R. J. Kuligowski, H. D. Cobb III, and N. A. Ramos

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14B.5

Kinematics and Microphysics of Convection in the Outer Rainband of Typhoon Nida (2016) Revealed by Polarimetric Radar

Dan Wu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and K. Zhao, M. R. Kumjian, X. Chen, A. C. Didlake Jr., and F. Zhang

2:45 PM

14B.6

Spatial Metrics that Facilitate the Comparison of Radar Reflectivity Values within Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and J. Tang and S. E. Zick

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (2.3 MB)

3:00 PM

14B.7

Factors Leading to Extreme Precipitation on Dominica from Tropical Storm Erika (2015)

Alison D. Nugent, Univ. of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI; and R. Rios-Berrios

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

14B.8

Patterns and Changes of Precipitation Field Induced By Typhoon in Chinese South Coast Area

Session 14C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity VI: Impacts of Vertical Shear

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Anthony C. Didlake Jr., The Penn State Univ.

1:30 PM

14C.1

A Hypothesis for the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and R. D. Torn

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14C.2

The Relationship Between Observed Thermodynamic and Precipitation Properties During Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, L. Nguyen, G. R. Alvey III, and E. Zipser

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14C.3

Assessing the Influence of Downdrafts and Surface Enthalpy Fluxes on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Shear

Leon Nguyen, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14C.4

Vortex Structural Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Moderate Vertical Shear

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Nguyen, P. Reasor, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14C.5

What Is the Relationship between Precipitation Symmetry, Vortex Tilt, and Intensification in an Ensemble of Idealized Moderately Sheared Tropical Storms?

George R. Alvey III, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser, D. S. Nolan, and J. Zawislak

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Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14C.6

Effect of Sea-Surface Temperature and Ambient Moisture on the Formation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Under Vertical Wind Shear: An Ensemble Predictability Perspective

Dandan Tao, Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

14C.7

Quantification of Shear-relative Precipitation Asymmetries of Tropical Cyclones in Different Intensity Change Stages and during the Evolution of Rapid Intensification Using 16 years of TRMM Data

Yongxian Pei, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14C.8

Climatology of Lightning in Tropical Cyclones as Observed by TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor

Adrian Lopez, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Session 14D

Convection III

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Da Yang, Univ. of California, Davis

1:30 PM

14D.1

Investigation of Convective Differences in the Pacific ITCZ

Miguel A Bernardez, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14D.2

Precipitation Efficiency Across Different Climates in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Nicholas Lutsko, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. W. Cronin

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14D.3

Exploring the Impact of the Diurnal Cycle on the Convective Intensity Contrast Between Land and Ocean

Zachary R. Hansen, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and L. E. Back

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (778.2 kB)

2:15 PM

14D.4

Inferences from Simple Models of Tropical Convection

Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14D.5

FiTT or FAT? Anvil Clouds and the Tropopause in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps and N. Jeevanjee

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14D.6

Mesoscale Momentum Flux in a 7km Mesh Global Atmosphere Model

Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. Mapes and W. M. Putman

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

14D.7

Vertical Velocity in the Gray Zone

Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT, Princeton, NJ

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14D.8

Toward a Simultaneous Scaling for Mean and Extreme Precipitation Rates

Tristan H. Abbott, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. W. Cronin

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Poster Session 16

Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

163

Barrier Effect of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent on the MJO Detected by Tracking MJO Precipitation

Chidong Zhang, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. LIng

164

Real-Time Convection Permitting Forecasts for the Maritime Continent Using the Unified Model.

Stuart Webster, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and C. Short and A. Hartley

Poster 165 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.5A.

Poster 166 has been moved. New paper number is 15A.10A.

167

Diurnal Cycle of Convection Over the Philippines as a Function of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Activity

Kyle Chudler, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. Xu and S. A. Rutledge

168

Maritime Continent Influences on the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Global Model

Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. Dias, N. Sakaeda, and C. Zhang

169

Intraseasonal Variability in the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the South China Sea and Maritime Continent

Michael Natoli, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

170

Role of Topography on the MJO in the Maritime Continent

Haochen Tan, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray

Poster Session 17

Air-sea interaction

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

171

On the Importance of Air-Sea Coupling in Extended-Range Mesoscale Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone 05

Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds and J. D. Doyle

172

Impact of Precipitation on the Tropical Cyclone Induced Sea Surface Temperature Cooling in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System

Jeremy Katz, Florida International Univeristy, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

Handout (1.4 MB)

173

Coupled 3D Numerical Simulations of the Effects of Ocean Salinity on TC Intensity

James Hlywiak, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

174

Ocean Surface Wave Impacts on SFMR Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

Heather M. Holbach, Florida State Univ., Northern Gulf Institute, and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and I. PopStefanija, B. W. Klotz, and M. A. Bourassa

175

A Study on the Correlation Analysis of Ocean Coupling Potential Intensity for Tropical Cyclones

Seonghee Won, KMA, Jeju, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. H. Kim, M. Choi, and M. Kim

176

WSRA Measurements of Ocean Directional Wave Spectra and Sea Surface Mean Square Slope

Ivan PopStefanija, ProSensing Inc., Amherst, MA; and N. Slavich, E. J. Walsh, and C. W. Fairall

Handout (759.6 kB)

177

Investigating the Effects of Sea Spray on Surface Wind Stress and Waves under Hurricane Conditions

Renee Richardson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and S. L. Morey

178

The Impact of Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation on Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim, S. G. Penny, A. Mehra, W. Wang, L. Zhu, and V. Tallapragada

179

Estimating the Drag Coefficient and Sea Surface Roughness Using a Morphometric Model

Poster Session 18

Boundary Layer UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

180

Comparison of Coyote Data with High-Resolution Numerical Models of Boundary Layer Conditions

181

Evaluation of Hurricane Maria Boundary Layer Structure in HWRF Using UAS Coyote and NOAA P-3 Aircraft Observations

Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang, G. H. Bryan, J. J. Cione, E. Kalina, A. Aksoy, B. A. Dahl, A. Farber, B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. Dumas, B. Baker, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. Troudt, C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, and R. J. Dobosy

182

The Boundary Layer Structure of Hurricane Maria (2017) from a Combination of NOAA P3 Aircraft and UAS Coyote Observations

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, G. H. Bryan, R. Dobosy, J. Zawislak, B. A. Dahl, K. Ryan, A. Aksoy, E. Kalina, L. K. Shay, B. Jaimes, F. D. Marks Jr., E. J. Dumas Jr., R. Worsnop, G. de Boer, C. W. Fairall, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Baker, and B. Kent

Poster Session 19

Catastrophe Modeling

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

183

An Analysis of Storm Surge Swaths from Significant Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes

John A. Troutman, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA; and B. D. Keim and A. W. Black

184

ADCIRC Model Verification of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Along the Louisiana Gulf Coast

Stephen Kreller, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA

185

Comparison of Storm Surge Impacts Simulated with a Coupled WRF-ADCIRC Model for Varying Meteorological Forcing

Alexandra N. Ramos, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and C. L. Bruyère, E. N. Curchitser, and K. R. Fossell

186

Development of the NWS' Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge Model

Tatiana D Gonzalez, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. A. Taylor

Handout (302.4 kB)

187

Statistical Prediction of Waterspout Probability

Taylor Adams, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and A. Devanas

Poster Session 20

Convection

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

188

Lightning Correlation with Environmental Variables Using the TRMM LIS

Montana Etten-Bohm, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

Handout (3.7 MB)

Structural Changes Preceding Rapid Intensification in Tropical Cyclones in a Large Ensemble of Idealized Simulations

189

HAMSR Observations during CPEX

Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. Schreier and S. T. Brown

190

CPEX 2017: Utilizing NASA’s Airborne Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) Lidar and Dropsondes for Convective Process Studies

G. D. Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and M. Garstang, S. Greco, Z. Pu, S. S. Chen, and E. Zipser

191

Convective Structure and Environmental Moisture and Wind Conditions for Tropical Storm Cindy (2017) Observed by NASA CPEX Campaign

Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Wu and S. S. Chen

192

Joint Analysis of APR-2 Precipitation Vertical Structure and DAWN Vertical Wind Profiles during CPEX

F. Joseph Turk, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. Hristova-Veleva, S. Tanelli, and S. L. Durden

193

Structure of an Atmospheric River over the Gulf of Mexico Observed during the NASA CPEX Campaign

Jose Martinez-Claros, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM

194

Role of Multiscale Atmospheric Conditions in the Evolution of Convective Organization during MJO-1 of DYNAMO/CINDY/AMIE

Jeffrey D. Thayer, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. A. Hence

195

A Parameter Sweep Nudging Experiment on the Influence of Vertical Structure of Environmental Winds on Deep Moist Convection

Shigeo Yoden, Kyoto Univ., Kyoto, Japan; and H. H. Bui and E. Nishimoto

196

Machine Tuning of Entrainment Rates in an Extended EDMF Scheme: Toward a Unified Parameterization of Shallow and Deep Convection

Yair Cohen, California Institue of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Lan, C. M. Kaul, Z. Tan, K. G. Pressel, T. Schneider, and J. Teixeira

197

Role of the Orography in Observed Convective Precipitating Systems in the Northern Andes Ranges of Colombia

Sebastian Gomez, Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and M. D. Zuluaga and C. D. Hoyos

198

Sensitivity of Cloud Radiative Effects to Water Vapor Perturbations in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. H. Abbott and T. W. Cronin

199

Control of Tropospheric Static Stability on the Organization of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Tropical Cyclones

Tetsuya Takemi, Kyoto Univ., Uji, Japan; and S. Yamasaki

200

Characterizing the Degree of Convective Clustering Using Radar Reflectivity and Its Application to Evaluating Model Simulations

Daehyun Kim, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and W. Y. Cheng, A. K. Rowe, Y. Moon, and S. Park

Poster Session 21

Hazard Communication

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Poster 201 has been moved. New paper number 16B.2A.

202

An Experimental Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI)

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

203

The Hurricane Risk Calculator: Translating Potential Wind Impacts for Coastal and Inland Residents

Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Arthur, C. Krause, J. Done, M. Ge, C. M. Rozoff, and B. Brown

Manuscript (926.2 kB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

204

Preserving, Archiving, and Displaying Airborne Datasets at NOAA / AOML’s Hurricane Research Division

Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. Holbach, B. W. Klotz, F. Marks, and S. Murillo

205

Asymmetry Metrics to Describe the Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Related Hazards

Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

206

When it Comes to Hurricane Landfall, are Hurricanes Smarter than a Fifth Grader

H. Michael Mogil, How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL; and M. Bolton

207

Revisiting Global Tropical Cyclone Statistics in Light of an Active 2017 Season in the Atlantic Basin

Matthew Bolton, How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL; and H. M. Mogil

Poster Session 22

Intraseasonal Variability and MJO

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

208

The Gill-Matsuno: Is It a Good Model for the MJO?

Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. Kacimi

209

Modulation of Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Genesis In The Western North Pacific By Wave Activities

Jianyun Gao, Fujian Climate Center, Fuzhou, China; and K. K. W. Cheung

210

Interplay between Convection and Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observed during DYNAMO Filed Experiment: A Case Study

Denny P. Alappattu, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang, N. Guy, and D. P. Jorgensen

211

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction in the Navy Earth System Model

Matthew Adam Janiga, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. Reynolds

Poster 212 has been moved. New paper number is 12A.5A.

Poster 213 has been moved. New paper number 12A.4A.

214

Analysis of the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation in the Indian Ocean Using Surface Winds from Composite Satellite Data

Heather Roman-Stork, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa

215

Orographic Effects of the Maritime Mountains on the Eastward Propagation and the Rainfall of the 2007-08 Madden-Julian Oscillation

Justin Gerard Riley, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

216

Aerosol Influence on Dynamic Parameters Required for Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Tropical Southwest Pacific Ocean in Different Madden Julian Oscillation Phases

217

Sub-seasonal Predictability of Large-scale Atmospheric Parameters in the Tropical Atlantic Basin

Kurt Hansen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman and S. J. Majumdar

218

A Coherent Image of Teleconnections Across the Globe Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and S. C. van den Heever

219

Bohar Singh, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. L. Kinter III

220

Factors Influencing the Propagation of Kelvin Waves and the MJO across the Maritime Continent

Cody W Yeary, NCICS, NCSU, Asheville, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer and C. J. Schreck III

221

QBO/Solar Modulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation: A Composite Analysis

Malori Redman, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and L. L. Hood and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Poster Session 23

TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI Field Campaign

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

222

Understanding Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Through Assimilation of Observations During Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiment

Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Zhang

223

Impact of Enhanced Atmospheric Motion Vectors on HWRF Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts with DifferentData Assimilation Configurations

Shixuan Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu and C. S. Velden

224

Impact of Assimilating TCI and IFEX Field Campaign Observations on the Prediction of Hurricane Patricia (2015) with Improved Model Physics

Xu Lu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

225

Environmental Factors and Internal Processes Contributing to Interrupted Rapid Decay of Hurricane Joaquin

Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and A. C. Jorgensen, R. L. Elsberry, C. Velden, M. S. Jordan, and R. Creasey

Poster 226 has been moved. New paper number 12B.5A

227

Observed Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure of Four Tropical Cyclones from the ONR TCI Field Experiment

Robert Creasey, NPS, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Hendricks, R. L. Elsberry, and M. S. Jordan

228

Examining the Three-Dimensional Structure and Evolution of Potential Vorticity in Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

Jonathan Martinez, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Poster Session 24

TC Rainbands & Precip

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

229A

An Examination of Essential Ingredients for Heavy Orographic Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009) over the Taiwan Central Mountain Range

William Agyakwah, NCAT, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

229

Comparative Analysis of TC Rainstorm Induced by Cold Air Intrusion of Two TC Cases

Shunan Yang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

230

Contribution of Surface Precipitation Evaporation to Landfalling Typhoon Rainfall: A Modeling Study of Typhoon Utor (2013)

Lu Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Manuscript (94.0 kB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

231

The Rainfall Responses of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) to Radiative Processes of Cloud Species

BIN WANG, Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou, China

Handout (571.7 kB)

232

A New Technique for Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)

Fumin Ren Sr., Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), Beijing, China

Handout (1.1 MB)

233

Thermodynamic and Kinematic Properties of Isolated Convective Cells in the Rainband Region of Atlantic Hurricanes

Wesley D. Terwey, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and P. Barlow and S. Sangster

Handout (900.4 kB)

234

Comparison of Drop Size Distributions During Two Stages of An Extreme Rainfall Event over Shanghai Associated with Typhoon Fitow (2013)

235

Evaluation of GFDL fvGFS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for 2017 US-Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Matthew J. Morin, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

236

A Modeling Study of the Principal Rainband in Hurricane Matthew (2016) during Its Intensification in the Caribbean

Aaron Updike, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA; and S. E. Zick

237

Microphysical Characteristics of Ice Hydrometeors in Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (2017).

Ya-Chien Feng, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

238

The Influence of Moisture, Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on the Rainfall Distribution Pattern of Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Gulf Coastal States

Sanghoon Kim, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

239

Changes in the Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Bands in Tropical Cyclones During Landfall along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coasts of the U.S.

Jessica Kirkland, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA; and S. E. Zick

Handout (734.6 kB)

240

Drivers of Extreme Rainfall during the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

241

Examining Polarimetric Radar Observations of Bulk Microphysical Structures and Their Relation to Vortex Kinematics in Hurricane Arthur (2014)

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., The Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and M. R. Kumjian

242

Quantifying the Effects of Land Surface Characteristics on Rainband Structures of a Modeled Landfalling Tropical Cyclone

Yu Wang, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

Poster Session 25

TC Remote Sensing

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Poster 243 has been moved. New paper number is 13B.2A.

244

GOES-16: Much Improved "Glasses" to View the Tropics

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. B. Schumacher, J. A. Knaff, M. J. Folmer, T. Olander, D. T. Lindsey, S. D. Miller, S. M. Griffin, J. P. Dunion, M. DeMaria, M. J. Brennan, and J. L. Beven

245

Improved Monitoring of the Evolving Upper-Tropospheric Wind Fields Over the Core of Tropical Cyclones Aided by High Spatiotemporal Resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Stettner

246

A Reanalysis of Australian Region Tropical Cyclones in the Geostationary Satellite Era. Part 1: Intensity, Using the Objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander, A. Burton, J. Courtney, E. A. Ritchie, C. Stark, and S. J. Tyo

247

The UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) - Current Status and Future Upgrades

Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden

Handout (4.9 MB)

248

Application of a Deep Learning Neural Network to Remotely-Sensed TC Intensity

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and J. H. Cossuth and C. S. Velden

249

NASA TROPICS Earth Venture Mission: Payload Characteristics and Data Products

R. Vincent Leslie, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Blackwell, S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, L. Gumley, T. Greenwald, D. Herndon, and G. Chirokova

Handout (7.7 MB)

250

Expected Sampling of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones By TROPICS Constellation Satellites.

Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and W. J. Blackwell and R. Bennartz

Handout (12.6 MB)

251

Hurricane Intensity and Wind Structure Estimation: from AMSU to TROPICS

Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, S. Longmore, and J. F. Dostalek

Poster 252 has been moved. New paper number is 11D.6A.

253

Characteristics of Latent Heating Rate Profiles for Typhoons in 15 Years from TRMM PR L2H25 Data

Ryo Oyama, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

254

On the Correlation between Total Condensate and Diabatic Heating in Tropical Cyclones and Applications for Diagnosing Intensity

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and Y. Miyamoto, S. N. Wu, and B. J. Soden

255

Lightning Climatology over the Northwest Pacific Region Based on Data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network

256

A Reanalysis of Australian Region Tropical Cyclones in the Geostationary Satellite Era. Part 2: Wind Radii Parameters Using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique (DAV-T)

Clair Stark, Univ. of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and E. A. Ritchie, S. J. Tyo, A. Burton, J. Courtney, C. S. Velden, and T. Olander

257

Introducing Multispectral Imagery to the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Process at the National Hurricane Center in 2017

Poster Session 26

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification

Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

258

The Statistical Relation between Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification and Ocean Heat Content in the Western North Pacific

Cheng-Hsiang Chih, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Handout (4.0 MB)

259

fvGFS Forecasts of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Andrew Hazelton, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. Harris and S. J. Lin

260

The Influences of the Urban Heat Island Effect and Brown Ocean Effect on Land Falling Tropical Cyclones and Provincial Atmospheric Conditions

Adam Jozef Zebzda, High School Student, Winston Salem, NC; and T. Holt, D. D. Flagg, C. C. Hennon, and A. Knudsen

Manuscript (297.5 kB)

261

Water Budget and Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Si Gao, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Zhai, B. Chen, and T. Li

Handout (1.3 MB)

262

The Seasonality of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the North Atlantic and Western Pacific Regions

Daniel Gilford, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. Solomon, K. Emanuel, and D. Rothenberg

Handout (2.3 MB)

263

Investigation of the Sea Surface Fluxes for TC Intensification

Chian-Yi Liu, National Central Univ., Taoyuan, Taiwan

264

Real Time Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Statistical Models Enhanced with Satellite Passive Microwave Predictors

Sarah M. Griffin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. M. Rozoff and C. S. Velden

265

The Impacts of the Basic Potential Vorticity Profiles on the Stability of Shallow-Water Vortices

Wei Zhong, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Liu

Handout (550.3 kB)

266

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Application in Operational Forecasting

Renzhi Jing, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. Lin

267

Testing the Performance of Dynamical Initialization for the Rapidly Intensified Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Jaedeok Lee, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Manuscript (165.4 kB)

268

Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction in Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Zongyao Yang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

Handout (1.1 MB)

269

The Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate Based on Ensemble Method

Chih-Chi HU, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

270

Intensification of Strongly Tilted Tropical Vortices Through Asymmetric Diabatic Heating

Tom Doerffel, Free Univ. Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and A. Papke, R. Klein, and P. K. Smolarkiewicz

271

Edouard's (2014) Intensification: The Relationship between Precipitation Symmetry, Quadrant-Based Thermodynamics, and Vortex Tilt using a Cloud-Resolving Ensemble

George R. Alvey III, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser, J. Zawislak, and R. F. Rogers

Poster 272 has been moved. New paper number is 10B.2A.

273

Intense Surface and Flight-Level Wind Speeds in Hurricanes: When Conventional Rules Break Down

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan, H. M. Holbach, M. J. Brennan, E. W. Uhlhorn, and R. G. Henning

274

Normalized Convective Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

Michael S. Fischer, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and K. L. Corbosiero

275

Modeling of the Influence of Saharan Dust and Other Aerosols on Hurricane Earl (2010) Using NASA Unified WRF (NUWRF)

Jainn J. Shi, NASA GSFC, Morgan State Univ./GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun and Z. Tao

276

Comparing Forecast Potential Intensity to the Observed Intensity of 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Catherine Lynn Stauffer, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

277

The Role of Boundary Layer Friction on Tropical Cyclogenesis and Subsequent Intensification

Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and R. K. Smith

Poster 278 has been moved. New paper number 12B.4A.

279

Tropical Cyclone Effects on Seasonal Climatology in the Gulf and Bordering Atlantic Ocean Regions

280

Revisiting Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Theory from an Unbalanced Flow Perspective.

T. J. Shepherd, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. J. E. Walsh

281

The Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Gradients on the Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones

B. Matthew Holliday, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and K. M. Wood

282

Dynamical Interactions in a Field of Persistent Tropicalcyclones: Eddy Angular Momentum and Vorticity Exchanges

John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams

283

The Phenomenal Intensification of Hurricane Maria (2017)

Kathy-Ann Caesar, Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Bridgetown, Barbados; and A. Sealy, R. Chewitt, M. Mayers-Als, C. Brathwaite, and S. Whitehall

284

An Update on the CIMSS SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

285

An Analysis of the Ocean Coupling Potential Intensity in North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Russell Henderson Glazer, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. M. Ali

286

Analysis of Moist Potential Vorticity of Two Similar Super Typhoons Affecting South China

Duan Peng, Zhaoqing Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Province, Zhaoqing, China

Handout (4.1 MB)

287

The progress of experiment on typhoon intensity change in coastal area (EXOTICCA)

288

A Forced, Balanced Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Christopher J. Slocum, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert

289

Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models

Yumin Moon, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, S. J. Camargo, A. A. Wing, A. H. Sobel, M. G. Bosilovich, H. Murakami, K. A. Reed, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao

290

A Low-Wavenumber Analysis of the Relative Roles of the External and Internal Dynamical Processes Responsible for Rapid Intensity Changes in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN, India; and Z. Haddad, S. Hristova-Veleva, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Community Forum on Airborne Hurricane Datasets

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD; Heather Holbach, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Florida State Univ., and the Northern Gulf Institute; Jason Dunion, AOML

Panelists: Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC; Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ.; Jason Sippel, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC; Chris Davis, NCAR; Deborah K. Smith, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville; Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center; Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD; Holger Voemel, NCAR

Plenary Session

Bill Gray Symposium - Evening Edition

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.

7:15 PM

PL.1

Diurnal Circulation Adjustment and Organized Deep Convection

James H. Ruppert Jr., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and C. Hohenegger

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PL.2

An Overview on the Research of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Distribution

7:30 PM

Remarks about Bill Gray by Sarah Gray

7:45 PM

PL.3

On Maximum Potential Intensification Rate (MPIR) of a Tropical Cyclone: An Observational Perspective

Yuqing Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, Beijng, China; and J. Xu

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8:00 PM

PL.4

The Energy Tube

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI

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Registration

Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 15A

Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Chidong Zhang, PMEL; Sue Chen, NRL

8:00 AM

15A.1

Overview of the YMC-Sumatra 2017

Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and S. Yokoi, S. Mori, T. Nasuno, U. Haryoko, F. Syamsudin, and K. Richards

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8:15 AM

15A.2

Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Around Western Coast of Sumatra Island Observed during Pre-YMC and YMC-Sumatra2017 Field Campaigns

Satoru Yokoi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and S. Mori, M. Katsumata, B. Geng, K. Yasunaga, F. Syamsudin, N. Nurhayati, and K. Yoneyama

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8:30 AM

15A.3

Preliminary Study of Horizontal and Vertical Wind Profiles of Quasi-Linear Convective System over Western Java Region, Indonesia Using Weather Radar Data

Abdullah Ali, BMKG Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia; and R. Adriyanto and N. Nurhayati

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8:45 AM

15A.4

Diurnal, Synoptic, and Intraseasonal Rain Statistics from Ground and Space-Borne Radar over the Maritime Continent

Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. Funk, R. Adriyanto, I. H. Umam, A. Ali, and N. Nurhayati

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9:00 AM

15A.5

Drastic Thickening of the Barrier Layer Off the Western Coast of Sumatra Due to the Madden Julian Oscillation Passage during the Pre-Years of the Maritime Continent Campaign

Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Ando, and T. Hasegawa

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9:15 AM

15A.6

Multiscale Interactions between the MJO, Equatorial Waves, and the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent: Part I

Lakemariam Yohannes Worku, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and A. Mekonnen and C. J. Schreck III

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9:30 AM

15A.7

MJO Propagation Characteristics over the Maritime Continent

Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Dias and G. N. Kiladis

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9:45 AM

15A.8

Tropical Intraseasonal Weather Analysis in December 2016

Shih-Pei Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and W. T. Chen and C. H. Sui

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10:00 AM

15A.9

Numerical Simulations of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation during Pre-YMC Field Campaign

Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and R. Okugawa

15A.10

CFSv2 Hindcast Skill and MJO Propagation across the Maritime Continent

10:15 AM

15A.10A

Using Convection Permitting Models to Improve the Forecasting of High Impact Weather in Southeast Asia

Andrew Hartley, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and S. Webster

Handout (2.2 MB)

Session 15B

TC Rainbands & Precip II

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: C.-C. Wu, National Taiwan Univ.; Daniel Stern, UCAR / NRL

8:00 AM

15B.1

Dynamics and Propagation of Tropospheric Gravity Waves Radiating from Tropical Cyclones As Seen in a Linear Nonhydrostatic Model (3DVPAS)

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and M. Onderlinde

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8:15 AM

15B.2

The Boundary Layer Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Rainbands

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

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8:30 AM

15B.3

A Numerical Study of Convective-Scale Updraft Traits in the Outer Core of Sheared Tropical Cyclones: Updraft Traits in Different Vertical Wind Shear Magnitudes

Qingqing Li, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and Q. Fang

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8:45 AM

15B.4

The Unconventional Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) of Hurricane Ophelia (2005)

Naufal Razin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

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9:00 AM

Paper 15B.5 has been moved. New poster number is 229A.

9:15 AM

15B.6

Using an Object-Based Approach to Quantify the Influence of Cumulus Parameterization in the Spatial Structure of Precipitation in Hurricane Isabel (2003)

Stephanie E. Zick, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA; and C. J. Matyas, G. M. Lackmann, and J. Tang

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Handout (27.6 MB)

9:30 AM

15B.7

Examining the Impact of Rainband Convection on TC Evolution Using Idealized Simulations

Chaulam Yu, Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and A. C. Didlake Jr.

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9:45 AM

15B.8

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Risk over the Continental North America

Laiyin Zhu, Western Michigan Univ., Kalmazoo, MI

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10:00 AM

15B.9

How Well Does the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction System Forecast West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Precipitation?

Simon C. Peatman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK; and N. P. Klingaman and K. Hodges

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10:15 AM

15B.10

Analysis of the Rainfall Mechanisms in Two Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Difei Deng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and E. A. Ritchie

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Session 15C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity VII: Observations

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC; Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD

15C.1

Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationship based on Aircraft Data in the Western North Pacific

8:00 AM

15C.2

Guidance on Tropical Cyclone Peak Wind Speed Undersampling from Aircraft and Satellite Observations

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

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8:15 AM

15C.3

The Formation and Evolution of Convective Bursts in Hurricanes: An Observational Study

Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield, R. F. Rogers, P. Reasor, and S. T. Brown

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8:30 AM

15C.4

Convective Downdrafts and Boundary Layer Recovery in Hurricane Earl (2010) Before and During Rapid Intensification

Joshua B. Wadler, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang, B. Jaimes, and L. K. Shay

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8:45 AM

15C.5

Hyperbolicity of Bulk Air-Sea Enthalpy Fluxes in Major Hurricanes

Benjamin Jaimes de la Cruz, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Rudzin and L. K. Shay

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9:00 AM

15C.6

Tropical Cyclone Passive Microwave Intensity Estimation (PMW-IE) Model

Haiyan Jiang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL

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9:15 AM

15C.7

A New Asymmetry Parameter for Tropical Cyclones

Kelvin Sai-cheong Ng, The Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and M. H. Lee and Y. Zong

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9:30 AM

15C.8

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Manil Maskey, MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil, R. Ramachandran, and J. Miller

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9:45 AM

15C.9

New Developments in Crowd Sourcing Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates

Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and C. Ihnat, R. C. Loder, K. R. Knapp, and C. J. Schreck III

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10:00 AM

15C.10

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change from a Lightning Perspective

Stephanie N. Stevenson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero

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Session 15D

Air-Sea Interaction I

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD; Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

8:00 AM

15D.1

A Wave-Induced Negative Feedback between the Stratified Coastal Ocean and Land Falling Tropical Cyclones

Ralf Toumi, Imperial College London, London, UK; and S. Wang and N. Bruneau

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8:15 AM

15D.2

Extension of the Prognostic Model of Sea Surface Temperature to Rain-Induced Cool and Freshwater Lenses

Hugo Bellenger, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka-city, Japan; and K. Drushka, W. E. Asher, G. Reverdin, M. Katsumata, and M. Watanabe

8:30 AM

15D.3

Parameterizing Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Induced by Tropical Cyclones

XIN LIU, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. L. Zhang

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8:45 AM

15D.4

An Algorithm for Estimating Maximum Wave Height and Wave Period inside Tropical Cyclones

Paul Hwang, NRL, Washington, DC; and E. Walsh

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9:00 AM

15D.5

Boundary Layer Structure and Surface Flux Estimates in Tropical Cyclones

David H. Richter, Univ. of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; and D. P. Stern and G. H. Bryan

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9:15 AM

15D.6

Tropical Cyclone Interaction with the Ocean: The Role of High Frequency Coupled Processes

Enrico Scoccimarro, CMCC, Bologna, Italy; and P. Fogli, A. Bellucci, S. Gualdi, K. A. Reed, S. Masina, and A. Navarra

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9:30 AM

15D.7

Observed Ocean Heat Content Variations From In-Situ and Satellite Measurements During The 2017 Hurricane Season

Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. K. Brewster, E. Maturi, E. Leuliette, B. Jaimes, J. Zhang, D. Donahue, J. Rudzin, and L. Hiron

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9:45 AM

15D.8

Harmonic Analysis of SFMR Off-Nadir Brightness Temperature Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

Heather M. Holbach, Florida State Univ., Northern Gulf Institute, and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and B. W. Klotz

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15D.9

Validation of The Regional Wave Prediction System (RWPS) Forced by Forecaster-Developed Gridded Hurricane Wind Fields

10:00 AM

15D.9A

Barrier Layer Development within Tropical Cyclones Based on Argo Float Network Observations

John Daniel Steffen, Florida State Univ./Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Bourassa

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10:15 AM

15D.10

Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction : Cases of Meranti (2016), Patricia (2015), and Haiyan (2013)

I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Huang, M. M. Lu, J. Boucharel, F. F. Jin, and M. Lien

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Coffee Break

Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Session 16A

Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Kunio Yoneyama, JAMSTEC; Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ.

11:00 AM

16A.1

Global Cloud-System-Resolving Simulation of the Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Maritime Continent during the Recent Field Campaigns

Tomoe Nasuno, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and K. Kikuchi

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

16A.2

Evaluation of Model Performance over the Maritime Continent

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. P. Barton, S. Chen, M. K. Flatau, J. Ridout, M. A. Janiga, T. Jensen, E. J. Metzger, J. G. Richman, and D. B. Baranowski

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16A.3

The PISTON and CAMP²Ex field programs: Coupled Meteorology, Oceanography and Compositional Systems Field Research on the Boreal Summertime Southwest Monsoon

Daniel Eleuterio, ONR, Arlington, VA; and H. Maring, S. Chen, E. D. Maloney, J. N. Moum, R. Holz, G. Narisma, J. S. Reid, S. A. Rutledge, S. C. van den Heever, and C. Villanoy

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11:45 AM

16A.4

Convective Cloud Population, Precipitation Microphysics, and Lightning Activity Associated with the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Weixin Xu, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge

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12:00 PM

16A.5

Atmospheric Ocean Coupled Numerical Simulations of the 2016 Summer BSISO Event over the Maritime Continent

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, C. Y. Lee, J. Pullen, and J. Nie

12:15 PM

16A.6

Convective Environments Across the Maritime Continent During the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever, E. M. Riley Dellaripa, and S. M. Saleeby

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12:30 PM

16A.7

The Importance of Topography to the Luzon Diurnal Cycle During a BSISO Event

Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney, S. M. Saleeby, and B. A. Toms

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12:45 PM

16A.8

The Role of MC River Discharge on the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Pullen, T. G. Jensen, M. K. Flatau, C. A. Reynolds, and J. M. Schmidt

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1:00 PM

16A.9

Observation Study for Understanding the Relation of Lightning Activity and Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines

Hisayuki Kubota, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo, Japan; and Y. Takahashi, M. Sato, K. Yamashita, and J. I. Hamada

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1:15 PM

16A.10

Characteristics of a Madden–Julian Oscillation Event in July 2017 with Numerical Simulations at a Cloud-Permitting Scale

Zhixiao Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu, C. Zhang, and A. W. Putra

Session 16B

Hazard Communication

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Cody Fritz, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

11:00 AM

16B.1

Comparing the Path, Structure, and Intensity Associated with Hurricanes Matthew and Irma to the Local Impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

Nathaniel McGinnis, NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and B. Nelson

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16B.2

Message from Irma: The Public’s Need to Understand the Words and Images Used in Hurricane Watches, Warnings, and Other Hurricane-Related Products

11:15 AM

16B.2A

NOAA's Recent Improvements in Storm Surge Forecasts and Warnings

Cody L. Fritz, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16B.3

Revisiting the Color Conundrum: Discussion on the Use of Color in Weather Displays and Implications for Hurricane Hazard Communication

Matthew Bolton, Saint Leo Univ., Saint Leo, FL; and H. M. Mogil

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11:45 AM

16B.4

Understanding and Improving Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasts through Visualizations of Risk and Potential Impacts

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi, H. Lazrus, J. Boehnert, J. L. Demuth, and J. Gambill

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12:00 PM

16B.5

The National Hurricane Center's Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Product

Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and J. L. Schwietert

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12:15 PM

16B.6

Public Usage of the NHC Website During Recent U.S. Hurricane Landfalls

David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. Onderlinde and M. Sardi

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12:30 PM

16B.7

National Weather Service MAS Team -- Providing Services to Spanish Speaking Communities During High Impact Events

Maria M. Torres, NWSFO, Miami, FL

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12:45 PM

16B.8

Providing Coherent Tornado Safety Instruction in Hurricane Situations

David Sharp, NOAA/National Weather Service, Melbourne, FL; and J. Smith, L. Rodio, W. Ulrich, and S. Spratt

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1:00 PM

16B.9

The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) and Non-Supercell Tornado Composite (NSTC) as Tools to Illustrate Areas of Greatest Tornado Potential Associated with 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Nate.

Ben Nelson, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and P. Wolf

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1:15 PM

16B.10

Decisive Factors for Typhoon Risk Distribution in South Korea

Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. S. R. Park and M. M. Bell

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Session 16C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity VIII: Forecasts

Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Robert F. Rogers, AOML; Erin Munsell, Laboratory for Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes

11:00 AM

16C.1

Adjoint Sensitivity Diagnosis of the Intensification of Hurricane Harvey

Zoe A. Brooke Zibton, Univ. of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and B. T. Hoover

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11:15 AM

16C.2

Evaluation of Machine-Learning Based Rapid Intensification Forecast Performance During the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Alexandria D. Grimes, Mississippi State Univ., Starkville, MS; and A. E. Mercer and K. M. Wood

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11:30 AM

16C.3

Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS): A New Method for Forecasting RI Probability

Matthew Onderlinde, NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria

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11:45 AM

16C.4

Evaluating the Impact of Storm Structure on Statistical Rapid Intensification Model Skill

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, C. M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, K. Sellwood, and K. D. Musgrave

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12:00 PM

16C.5

An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid (RIPA) for the western North Pacific

John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson and K. D. Musgrave

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12:15 PM

16C.6

Improved Weighted-Analog Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in Pre-Formation and Ending Stages

HSIAO-CHUNG TSAI, Tamkang Univ., New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

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12:30 PM

16C.7

Development of Statistical-dynamical Tools for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction in the Southwest Indian Ocean

Marie-Dominique Leroux, Météo-France / LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and D. A. Mékiès, J. Meister, and A. L. Dorla

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12:45 PM

16C.8

Applying Infrared Satellite Brightness Temperature to Understand Forecast Errors of Rapid Intensifying Hurricanes

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. H. Cossuth, R. L. Bankert, J. D. Doyle, and D. R. Ryglicki

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1:00 PM

16C.9

Recent and Upcoming Operational Upgrades at ECMWF Relevant for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Mohamed Larbi Dahoui, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and F. Prates, L. Magnusson, M. Bonavita, and K. Mogensen

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1:15 PM

16C.10

The Impacts of WRF Model Tendency Errors on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast

Xiaohao Qin, IAP, Beijing, China; and W. Duan and H. Xu

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Session 16D

Air-Sea Interaction II

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Heather Holbach, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Florida State Univ., and the Northern Gulf Institute; I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ.

11:00 AM

16D.1

Sea Spray Transport Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

Kosuke Ito, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and S. Kanda and N. Takagaki

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11:15 AM

16D.2

A Comparison of Fresh and Saline Spume Droplet Production in High Wind Conditions

Brian K. Haus, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. Mehta, A. W. Smith, and D. Ortiz-Suslow

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11:30 AM

16D.3

Impact of Three-Way Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on HWRF Forecasting for 2017 High-Impact Hurricanes

Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, A. Mehra, B. Thomas, D. Sheinin, H. S. Kim, B. Reichl, I. Ginis, J. Dong, Z. Zhang, A. Chawla, and V. Tallapragada

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11:45 AM

16D.4

CYGNSS Estimates of Surface Heat Fluxes

Juan A. Crespo, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt

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12:00 PM

16D.5

Ocean Observations During Hurricanes by Air-Deployable Profiling Floats

Steven R. Jayne, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and E. R. Sanabia and W. Swick

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12:15 PM

16D.6

Energy Exchange: The Relationship between Sea Surface Salinity, Enthalpy, and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Mason A. C. Bray, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and K. M. Wood

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

16D.7

Examining the Influence of Caribbean Sea Upper Ocean Variability on Hurricane Ivan (2004) Using Uncoupled and Coupled Simulations

Johna E. Rudzin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, B. Jaimes, J. B. Zambon, and R. He

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12:45 PM

16D.8

Ensemble Forecast of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) Using a High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects of TC-Ocean Interaction

Kuan-Jen Lin, National Central Univ., Jhongli City, Taiwan; and S. S. Chen and S. C. Yang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (535.9 kB)

1:00 PM

16D.9

Modeling and Analysis of the Ocean Spray Effects on Hurricane Dynamics

Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov

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1:15 PM

16D.10

The Effect of Air-Sea Interactions on Tropical Cyclone Predictions in the West Pacific

Nicholas P. Klingaman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK; and X. Feng and K. I. Hodges

Audio File
Recorded Presentation

Conference Concludes

Student Award Ceremony

Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)

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