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Sunday, 15 April 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 15 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Monday, 16 April 2018

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 16 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 1A
Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.
8:45 AM
1A.2
The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves
Christina M Patricola, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang
9:30 AM
1A.5
9:45 AM
1A.6
Interannual Relationship between the Tropical SST and Summertime Anticyclone over the Western Pacific
Erh-Tung Wu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui, C. W. Lee, and P. H. Chung
Recording files available
Session 1B
African Weather and Climate I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ.
8:30 AM
Paper 1B.1 has been moved. New poster number is 117A.

8:45 AM
1B.2
Daily Rainfall Modulation of the Long and Short Rains in East Africa By the Madden Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and R. van der Linden, J. G. Pinto, L. Seregina, N. Elagib, and J. Njeri
9:00 AM
1B.3
The Westward Increase of Mesoscale Convection Organization over Northern Africa: A Case Study
Irene Reinares Martinez, Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Chaboureau
9:15 AM
1B.4
Modulation of Precipitation over West Africa by Equatorial Waves
Andreas Schlueter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, and P. Vogel
9:30 AM
1B.5
Mechanisms of African Easterly Wave Genesis
Joshua Dylan White, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer
9:45 AM
1B.6
Identification and Climatology of Rainfall Types over Southern West Africa
Marlon Maranan, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink and P. Knippertz
Recording files available
Session 1C
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) I
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada
CoChair: Nicole P. Kurkowski, NWS
8:30 AM
1C.1
8:45 AM
1C.2
Recent and Future Advances in Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP)
Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, D. Iredell, Q. Liu, B. Zhang, J. A. Sippel, B. Thomas, K. Wu, S. Abarca, and H. Winterbottom
9:00 AM
1C.3
A Description of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance
Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and A. Simon, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky
9:15 AM
1C.4
Isolating Factors for the Northward Turn Timing and Location of Hurricane Irma
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Cai, G. J. Alaka Jr., F. D. Marks Jr., L. Qi, and S. G. Gopalakrishnan
9:30 AM
1C.5
Investigation of Irma & Maria Track Forecasts Using an Ensemble Approach within Basin-Scale HWRF
Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. Zhang
9:45 AM
1C.6
Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction with an Analog Ensemble
Stefano Alessandrini, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. M. Rozoff, W. E. Lewis, and L. Delle Monache
Recording files available
Session 1D
Tropical Extratropical Interactions I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin
8:30 AM
1D.1
A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition
Melanie Bieli, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. L. Evans, and T. M. Hall
9:15 AM
1D.4
Ventilation and Storm Structure during Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Christian Euler, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany; and T. Kremer, M. Riemer, and E. Schömer
9:30 AM
1D.5
Evolution of Distinct Air Streams during the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Tobias Kremer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany; and M. Riemer, E. Schömer, and C. Euler

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 2A
Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ.
10:30 AM
2A.1
Normalized Hurricane Damage in the U.S.: 1900- 2017
Jessica Weinkle, Univ. of North Carolina, Wilmington, NC; and R. Pielke Jr., C. Landsea, D. Collins, R. Musulin, R. P. Crompton, and P. J. Klotzbach
10:45 AM
2A.2
Reanalysis of the 1960-1970 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
Sandy Delgado, StormGeo, Inc., Houston, TX; and C. Landsea and D. Ortt
11:00 AM
2A.3
Towards a Homogenized Century-Scale Record of Atlantic Major Hurricanes
Gabriel A. Vecchi, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and C. Landsea and W. Zhang
11:15 AM
2A.4
Energetic Perspectives on U.S. Tropical Cyclone Activity
Ryan Truchelut, WeatherTiger, LLC, Tallahassee, FL; and E. M. Staehling
11:45 AM
2A.6
Recording files available
Session 2B
African Weather and Climate II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
CoChair: Andreas Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
10:30 AM
2B.1
The Challenge of Classifying Propagating Synoptic Disturbances in the African Tropics – Examples from the DACCIWA Field Campaign
Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and M. Maranan
10:45 AM
2B.2
Variability of African Easterly Wave Structures
Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft
11:30 AM
2B.5
Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) that are Potential Candidates for Tropical Cyclogenesis
Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park,, PA; and J. L. Evans
11:45 AM
2B.6
African Easterly Waves and Convection: A Potential Vorticity Perspective
James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer
12:00 PM
2B.7
A Synoptic Model for African Easterly Waves
Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. O. H. Russell and J. D. White
Recording files available
Session 2C
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) II
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD
CoChair: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
10:30 AM
2C.1
Role of In-Cloud Turbulent Mixing in the Eyewall and Rainbands in Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Ping Zhu, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and B. P. Tyner, J. Zhang, S. Abarca, E. Aligo, F. D. Marks Jr., Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

11:00 AM
2C.3
A Top-Down Pathway to Secondary Eyewall Formation in Simulated Tropical Cyclones
Bryce Tyner, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and P. Zhu, J. A. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, F. D. Marks Jr., and V. Tallapragada
11:15 AM
2C.4
11:30 AM
2C.5
Secondary Eyewalls in HWRF and HMON, Too Few? Too Many?
Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra
11:45 AM
2C.6
Can the Grell-Freitas Convective Scheme Improve HWRF?
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. M. Newman, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, G. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel
12:00 PM
2C.7
Application of Machine Learning for Secondary Eyewall Formation Prediction in HWRF and HMON Models
Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada
Recording files available
Session 2D
Tropical Extratropical Interactions II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ.
10:30 AM
2D.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change under the Influence of Upper-level Troughs in Idealized Simulations
Casey M. Peirano, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero and B. H. Tang
11:15 AM
2D.4
The Meandering Margin of the Moist Meteorological Tropics
Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. S. Chung, W. Hannah, H. Masunaga, A. Wimmers, and C. S. Velden
11:30 AM
2D.5
Modulation of the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Flow and Extreme Events By the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, C. F. Baggett, K. C. Tseng, B. D. Mundhenk, S. Henderson, and B. Wolding
11:45 AM
2D.6
The Representation of the Circumglobal Teleconnection in the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Model
Jonathan D Beverley, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and S. Woolnough, L. Baker, S. Johnson, and A. Weisheimer

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 3A
Climate Change I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL
1:45 PM
3A.2
Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Influences on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Camargo, M. Previdi, and K. Emanuel
2:00 PM
3A.3
2:15 PM
3A.4
Investigating Potential Changes in Tropical Cyclone Overland Precipitation in the U.S. Due to Future Climate Change
Kevin A. Reed, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and C. M. Zarzycki, M. F. Wehner, J. Huff, and J. T. Bacmeister
2:45 PM
3A.6
3:00 PM
3A.7
Increasing Frequency of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms over the Arabian Sea
Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi and S. Underwood
3:15 PM
3A.8
Intermodel Variability in Tropical Cyclones Downscaled from Paleoclimate Simulations
Quinton Anthony Lawton, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and R. Korty
Recording files available
Session 3B
Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR
1:30 PM
3B.1
1:45 PM
3B.2
2:00 PM
3B.3
Role of Maritime Continent Topography in Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean
Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. M. Fine, P. E. Ciesielski, C. C. Wang, S. K. Ma, and R. K. Taft
2:30 PM
3B.5
Interaction of Kelvin and Easterly Waves Over the Atlantic and Implications for Tropical Cyclogenesis
Sridhar Mantripragada, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer and C. J. Schreck III
3:00 PM
3B.7
Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and W. Li, M. Peng, X. Jiang, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and C. Davis
3:15 PM
3B.8
Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Predictability
Michael Maier-Gerber, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, E. Di Muzio, and R. McTaggart-Cowan
Recording files available
Session 3C
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) III
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
CoChair: S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD
1:30 PM
3C.1
1:45 PM
3C.2
Performance of the HWRF Analog Ensemble during the HFIP 2017 Real-Time Demonstration
William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. M. Rozoff, L. Delle Monache, and S. Alessandrini
2:30 PM
3C.5
Recent and Planned Upgrades to Operational HWRF Data Assimilation
Henry Winterbottom, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Sippel, A. Mehra, B. Zhang, and Z. Zhang
2:45 PM
3C.6
Ocean Model Impact Study for Improvement of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasting
Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., P. G. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. J. Cione, J. Dong, P. J. Fitzpatrick, G. Goni, B. Jaimes, S. Jayne, B. Liu, E. Sanabia, L. K. Shay, B. Thomas, J. Zhang, L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada
3:00 PM
3C.7
Limit on the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Accuracy
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and K. Keshavamurthy
3:15 PM
3C.8
Recording files available
Session 3D
Monsoon
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ding Ma, Harvard Univ.
CoChair: Salvatore Pascale, GFDL
1:30 PM
3D.1
What Determines the ITCZ Position During Solsticial Seasons on Earth and Other Planets?
Spencer A Hill, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and S. Bordoni and J. L. Mitchell
1:45 PM
3D.2
Investigating the geographic controls of the North American monsoon in the Community Atmosphere Model
Arianna M Varuolo-Clarke, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. Medeiros and K. A. Reed
2:15 PM
3D.4
Poleward Shift and Weakening of Summer Season Synoptic Activity over India in a Warming Climate
Ajaya Mohan Ravindran, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, UAE; and S. Sukumaran, W. Boos, T. P. Sabin, and V. Praveen
3:00 PM
3D.7
An Overview of the 2016 Indian Monsoon Progression from INCOMPASS Field Observations and Modelling
Arathy Menon, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and A. G. Turner, S. Webster, and G. Martin
3:15 PM
3D.8
The Thermodynamic Structure of the South Indian Monsoon
Jennifer K. Fletcher, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and D. J. Parker, A. G. Turner, A. Menon, G. M. Martin, and K. M. R. Hunt

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 4A
Climate Change II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL
4:00 PM
4A.1
Tropical Cyclone Structure and Size across Climates
Robert Korty, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. R. Chavas
4:15 PM
4A.2
Widening of Tropical Cyclone Scale Projected By Multi-Decadal Experiments with a 14km-Mesh Global Nonhydrostatic Model
Yohei Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Satoh, M. Sugi, C. Kodama, A. T. Noda, M. Nakano, and T. Nasuno
4:45 PM
4A.4
Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate
Chunyong Jung, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
5:00 PM
4A.5
Wind Waves from Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico
Christian M. Appendini, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mérida, Yucatan, Mexico; and R. Meza-Padilla and A. Ramirez-Manguilar
5:15 PM
4A.6
5:30 PM
4A.7
Recent Changes in the Temporal Clustering Patterns of Tropical Rainfall
Wen-wen Tung, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. C. Bowers, W. S. Cleveland, and Q. Liu
5:45 PM
4A.8A
How Unusual was the 2005 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic? A Multi-Model Analysis
Kevin J.E. Walsh, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Lavender, M. King, L. P. Caron, S. Monkiewicz, and M. P. Guishard
Recording files available
Session 4B
Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates
4:00 PM
4B.1
4:15 PM
4B.2
5:00 PM
4B.5
Dry and Semi-Dry Tropical Cyclones
Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. R. Chavas
5:15 PM
4B.6
5:30 PM
4B.7
5:45 PM
4B.8
Dry Air, Midlevel Flow, and the Persistence of Deep Convection in Atlantic Tropical Disturbances
Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. A. Davis, J. P. Dunion, and L. F. Bosart
Recording files available
Session 4C
Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Morgan E O'Neill, Univ. of Chicago
4:15 PM
4C.2
Eyewall Cycles in Vertically Sheared and Unsheared Tropical Cyclones
John E. Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. M. Dougherty, R. Rogers, J. A. Zhang, and J. P. Kossin
4:30 PM
4C.3
4:45 PM
4C.4
5:00 PM
4C.5
Examining the Role of Spiral Rainbands in Secondary Eyewall Formation
Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang, R. F. Rogers, P. Reasor, and R. Nystrom
5:15 PM
4C.6
5:30 PM
4C.7
Analyzing Asymmetric TC Structures during Secondary Eyewall Formation Using Flight-Level Observations
Katharine E. D. Wunsch, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and A. C. Didlake Jr.
5:45 PM
4C.8
Impact of the Diurnal Radiation Cycle on Secondary Eyewall Formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Z. M. Tan, J. Fang, Y. Q. Sun, and F. Zhang
Recording files available
Session 4D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International Univ.
4:00 PM
4D.1
Investigation of Storm Surge Impacts from Hurricane Irma Along Coastal Areas of Southern Mainland Florida
Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. Konarik, A. Moses, L. Kelly, M. M. Torres, and R. Molleda
4:15 PM
4D.2
Incorporating Rainfall into Storm Surge Forecasting for Hurricane Irma
Kyra Bryant, Tennessee State Univ., Nashville, TN; and A. Alghamdi, A. Musinguzi, and M. Akbar
4:30 PM
4D.3
4:45 PM
4D.4
5:00 PM
4D.5
Forecasting Hurricane Irma and its Storm Surge Using an MPAS-ADCIRC Ensemble
David Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fossell, R. E. Morss, C. A. Davis, and C. Snyder
5:15 PM
4D.6
Surface Wind Field Reconstructions Using a New Asymmetric Parametric Model:Application to Major Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria of 2017.
Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Clavner, S. Lorsolo, P. J. Sousounis, and S. Tolwinski-Ward

5:30 PM
4D.7
Mapping of Winds in Landfalling Irma from Two DOWs and Several Pods Deployed Near Naples, Florida
Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman
5:45 PM
4D.8
The Role of Small-Scale Vortices in Enhancing Surface Winds and Damage in Hurricane Harvey
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2018


Icebreaker
Location: Spa Lawn (Sawgrass Marriott)

Tuesday, 17 April 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 5A
DA & Observing Systems I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jason A. Sippel, AOML
8:15 AM
5A.2
The Quality of Observations from the Updated NCAR Dropsonde System in Severe Storms
Holger Vömel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hock, M. Goodstein, K. Young, and I. Suhr
8:45 AM
5A.4A
Gradient Non-Balance: A New Approach for the Outflow at the Top of Tropical Cyclones in Models and Observations
Yair Cohen, California Institue of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. L. Durden, N. Harnik, E. Heifetz, D. S. Nolan, D. Tao, and F. Zhang
9:00 AM
5A.5
The Performance and Data Utility of an Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar in Tropical Cyclone Environments
G. D. Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and C. O'Handley, L. Bucci, and R. Atlas
9:15 AM
5A.6
An Observing System Experiment (OSE) Study of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) instrument
Kathryn Sellwood, Univ. of Miami CIMAS and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and D. J. Cecil
9:30 AM
5A.7
Evaluation of a Basin-Scale Nature Run for Hurricane OSSEs
Javier Delgado, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci, K. Ryan, and R. Atlas
Recording files available
Session 5B
Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Timothy W. Cronin, MIT
8:00 AM
5B.1
Diabatic Heating Associated with Different Types of Precipitation during Tropical Cyclone Formation
Cody L. Fritz, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, T. J. Dunkerton, and S. W. Nesbitt
8:15 AM
5B.2
Understanding the Role of Mid- and Low-Level Circulations in the Development of Typhoon Nuri
Julio C. Marin, Universidad de Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile; and D. J. Raymond
8:45 AM
5B.4
9:00 AM
5B.5
9:15 AM
5B.6
A Predictive Statistical Model for Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Arturo Fernandez, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and K. Kashinath, J. McAuliffe, C. M. Patricola, M. Prabhat, P. B. Stark, and M. F. Wehner
9:30 AM
5B.7
9:45 AM
5B.8
Thermodynamic Constraints on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Count
Kimberly A. Hoogewind, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas, B. A. Schenkel, and M. O’Neill
Recording files available
Session 5C
Tropical Cyclone Structure II
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA
8:15 AM
5C.2
A Historical Analysis of the Mature Stage of Tropical Cyclones
Shuai Wang, Imperial College London, London, UK; and R. Toumi
8:30 AM
5C.3
A New Asymmetric Parametric Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Field Model
Michal Clavner, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. Lorsolo, P. J. Sousounis, S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, and E. W. Uhlhorn

9:15 AM
5C.6
9:30 AM
5C.7
9:45 AM
5C.8
Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?
Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and N. Lin, D. R. Chavas, G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and M. Oppenheimer
Recording files available
Session 5D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Patrick Harr, Jupiter Technologies
9:45 AM
5D.8

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 6A
DA & Observing Systems II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jonathan Poterjoy, NOAA
11:00 AM
6A.3
11:45 AM
6A.6
Impact of NOAA P-3 Tail Doppler Radar Observations on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts Using a Regional OSSE Framework
Kelly E. Ryan, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Bucci, J. Delgado, J. Poterjoy, and R. Atlas
Recording files available
Session 6B
Operations & Landfall I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
10:45 AM
6B.2
Recent Research and Development at MRI/JMA to Improve Typhoon Forecasts
Munehiko Yamaguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and U. Shimada, M. Sawada, T. Iriguchi, and H. Owada
11:00 AM
6B.3
Have We Reached the Limits of Predictability for Hurricane Track Forecasting?
Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi
11:30 AM
6B.5
Effectively Issuing Extreme Wind Warnings (EWW) during Hurricane Maria When Observations and Radar Fails
Ernesto Rodriguez, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Carolina, PR; and R. Garcia-Hiraldo, I. Colon-Pagan, G. Lojero, and T. Washington
11:45 AM
6B.6
Real Time Interpretation of SFMR Peak Surface Wind Speeds in Intense Hurricanes as Reported by Reconnaissance Aircraft
Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland, FL; and A. Lundry, P. Flaherty, J. Parrish, I. Sears, M. Holmes, B. Belson, J. Williams, and L. Miller
12:00 PM
6B.7
Utility of GOES-16 and MRMS Operational Products for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Kristin M. Calhoun, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. E. Reinhart and D. M. Kingfield
Recording files available
Session 6C
Tropical Cyclone Structure III
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research
10:30 AM
6C.1
Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts and Forecast Error Estimates for the Western North Pacific
Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. S. Goerss, J. A. Knaff, B. Strahl, E. M. Fukada, E. Serra, K. Richardson, T. Meissner, and L. Ricciardulli
10:45 AM
6C.2
Stochastic Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii
Andrew Polasky, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans
11:00 AM
6C.3
The TC Diurnal Cycle: The Landfall Before the Landfall
Jason P. Dunion, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. D. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, and B. D. McNoldy
11:30 AM
6C.5
JTWC 5-Day Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Forecasting - First Year in Review
Brian Strahl, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and C. R. Sampson and J. A. Knaff
11:45 AM
6C.6
Bias Correction of Tropical Cyclone Structure in Global ECMWF-Ensemble Prediction System for NW Australia
Saima Aijaz, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and J. D. Kepert, H. Ye, Z. Huang, and A. Hawksford
Recording files available
Session 6D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 III
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.
10:30 AM
6D.1
10:45 AM
6D.2
Synthesis of US and Caribbean Hurricane Impacts on a Warmer Globe
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and J. I. Hernandez
11:00 AM
6D.3
Understanding Damage from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Javiera I. Hernandez, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby
11:15 AM
6D.4
Insurance Claims Illustrate Damage Footprint and Severity for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
William Ramstrom, Verisk Insurance Solutions, Lexington, MA; and K. Ramanathan
11:30 AM
6D.5
12:00 PM
6D.7
High-Resolution COAMPS-TC Ensemble Performance for the High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, P. A. Reinecke, and J. R. Moskaitis

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 7A
DA & Observing Systems III
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Altug Aksoy, AOML
1:30 PM
7A.1
1:45 PM
7A.2A
2:00 PM
7A.3
Impact of High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Data Assimilation on Typhoon Forecasts in HWRF
Masahiro Sawada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and Z. Ma, B. Zhang, A. Mehra, V. Tallapragada, R. Oyama, and K. Shimoji
2:45 PM
7A.6
Impact of CYGNSS Data on Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts Using the Operational HWRF
Bachir Annane, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. M. Leidner, B. McNoldy, R. Atlas, S. Majumdar, and R. N. Hoffman
3:15 PM
7A.8
Assessment of a Delay-Doppler Map (DDM) Observation Operator for use in CYGNSS Data Assimilation
James L. Garrison, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and M. Leidner, F. Huang, B. Annane, and R. N. Hoffman
Recording files available
Session 7B
Operations & Landfall II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC
1:30 PM
7B.1
Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on Societies
Elizabeth A Ritchie, Univ. of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and K. M. Wood and D. L. Balukas
1:45 PM
7B.2
2:00 PM
7B.3
2:15 PM
7B.4
Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Model for Forecasting Storm Surges
Keqi Zhang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and Y. Li and B. C. Zachry

2:30 PM
7B.5
Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Jesse Schaffer, UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber and C. Evans
3:00 PM
7B.7
3:15 PM
7B.8
Sub-Kilometer Simulation of Landfall of Typhoon Rammasun (2014)
Wenyu Qiu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recording files available
Session 7C
Tropical Cyclone Structure IV
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Daniel Stern, UCAR / NRL
1:30 PM
7C.1
1:45 PM
7C.2
Dynamic Characteristics of TC Boundary Layer from Doppler Wind Lidar Observations
Lisa Bucci, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and G. D. Emmitt, J. Zhang, C. O'Handley, S. Greco, and R. Atlas
2:00 PM
7C.3
2:15 PM
7C.4
2:30 PM
7C.5
2:45 PM
7C.6
Eyewall Tilt Viewed from a Moist Adiabatic Ascending Perspective
Yiwu Huang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Duan
3:00 PM
7C.7
Estimated In-situ Eyewall Turbulence from Aircraft Observations in the South China Sea
Nathan J Sparks, Imperial College London, London, UK; and K. K. Hon, P. W. Chan, J. C. L. Chan, and R. Toumi
3:15 PM
7C.8
Recording files available
Session 7D
High-Impact Hurricanes of 2017 IV
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC
1:30 PM
7D.1
Hurricane Irma: A Study on Evacuation Decision and Social Connectedness
Jennifer M. Collins, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and R. Ersing, A. Polen, M. E. Saunders, and J. C. Senkbeil
1:45 PM
7D.2
The 2017 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Real-Time Experiments: Highlights on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (gopal), AOML, Miami, FL; and M. Bender, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, N. P. Kurkowski, and F. Marks
2:00 PM
7D.3
A Gridded TCM to Support Forecast Operations at NHC and WFOs
Craig Mattocks, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Santos, C. Forbes, and C. Mello
2:15 PM
7D.4
Polarimetric Radar Analysis of Hurricane Harvey’s (2017) Record-Setting Rainfall
Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell
2:30 PM
7D.5
HEDAS Analyses of Intense Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Patricia
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. J. Sellwood, B. A. Dahl, and A. Aksoy
3:00 PM
7D.7
A Review of Model Guidance for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, and A. Mehra
3:15 PM
7D.8
Reconciling the NHC Intensity Estimates and Observed Wind Speeds for 2017 Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
Marty Bell, WeatherFlow, Ft. Collins, CO; and F. J. Masters, T. McGee, and J. H. Copeland

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Poster Session 1
NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
1
OSSE Evaluation of Global Hawk Dropsonde Sampling Strategies in a Tropical Cyclone
Brittany A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and H. Christophersen

2
Observations from a Passive Microwave Sounder on the Global Hawk: HAMSR during SHOUT and EPOCH
Mathias Schreier, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

4
Overview of the SHOUT AVAPS Dropsonde System
Terry Hock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Voemel, K. Young, and N. Potts


Poster Session 2
Seasonal Prediction/Interannual Variability
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
5
IBTrACS Version 4 – Faster Updates, Fewer Formats, and Better Support
Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, M. C. Kruk, and C. J. Schreck III

6
Should We Undertake a Global Reanalysis of Tropical Cyclones?
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Caroff, S. Delgado, C. Guard, M. P. Guishard, C. C. Hennon, J. Knaff, K. Knapp, J. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, C. Velden, and J. L. Vigh

7
Characterizing the Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Motion
Chelsey N. Laurencin, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and V. Misra

8
Bias-Correction of the 14-Day NCEP GEFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by Using the Reforecast Dataset
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang Univ., New Taipei City, Taiwan; and T. T. Lo, M. S. Chen, and R. L. Elsberry

9
Climatology and Predictability of Mid-Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in High-Atmospheric-Resolution Seasonal Prediction System
Julia V. Manganello, George Mason Univ./COLA, Fairfax, VA; and B. Cash and E. T. Swenson

Handout (9.3 MB)

10
Www.seasonalhurricanepredictions.org
Louis-Philippe Caron, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and P. J. Klotzbach and T. J. Philp

12
Comparison of Destructive Wind Forces of Hurricane Irma with Other Hurricanes Impacting NASA Kennedy Space Center, 2004-2017
Lisa L. Huddleston, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, FL; and D. W. Sharp, K. A. Winters, and K. A. Smith

13
Trends in Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity (1951-2017)
Anna M. Trevino, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

14
Exploring Decadal Predictability of Tropical Cyclones using CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DP-LE)
Wei-Ching Hsu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang, S. Yeager, C. M. Patricola, and G. Danabasoglu

15
Large-Scale Atmospheric Forcing of Vertical Wind Shear in the Tropics
Jhordanne J. Jones, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell and P. J. Klotzbach

Handout (4.7 MB)

16
Very Little Evidence for a Direct Effect of Volcano Aerosols on Global Tropical Cyclone Activity
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and L. M. Polvani

18
Direct and Indirect Impacts of Positive Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) events on Cyclonic Activity in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) Basin
Edouard Lees, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint Denis, Reunion; and O. Bousquet, J. Leclair de Bellevue, F. Bonnardot, S. Langlade, G. Jumaux, and R. Fernandes

Handout (1.4 MB)


Poster Session 3
Tropical Cyclone Structure
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
20
What Limits the Secondary Eyewall Formation in Intense Tropical Cyclones
Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Poster 21 has been moved. New paper number is 8C.4A

22
Analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy in 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Wind Fields
Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Powell

23
The Influence of the Tropical Cyclone Outer-Core Wind Strength for Landfalling Storm in Taiwan
Kun-Hsuan Chou, Chinese Culture Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and S. J. Lin and S. Y. Wu

25
Diagnosis on the Characteristics of the Mesoscale Potential Vorticity in Intensity-Maintaining Tropical Cyclone
Hancheng Lu, College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Q. H. Li, X. Huang, and S. Liu

Handout (561.8 kB)

26
Influences of Difference Outer Convective Precipitation Distribution on Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Replacement Cycle with Typhoon Sinlaku(0813)
Xiaogang Huang, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and X. Cheng

27
On the Role of Coriolis Forcing in the Bifurcation of Tropical Cyclone Development
Quan Wang, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and C. Kieu

28
The Role of the Boundary Layer Dynamics in Secondary Eyewall Formation
Kuan-Yu Lu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

31
A Dynamical Mechanism for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones
Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and N. Sugimoto

32
Development and Applications of a Long-term, Global Tropical Cyclone Dropsonde Dataset
Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Nguyen, E. Paltz, K. Young, H. Voemel, and T. Hock

33
Observations of Gravity Waves Radiating from Hurricanes Obtained from Research Aircraft and Surface Stations
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

34
The Impact of Terrain Height on Precipitation Processes in a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone
Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Houze Jr.

35
The Thermodynamic Evolution of the Hurricane Boundary Layer During Eyewall Replacement Cycles
Gabriel J. Williams Jr., College of Charleston, Charleston, SC

Handout (1.2 MB)

36
A Dynamical Perspective on Inner Eyewall Dissipation in Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Tsz-Kin Lai, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and K. Menelaou and P. M. K. Yau

37
38
Eyewall Replacement Cycles in Hurricane Edouard (2014): Dynamics and Ensemble Variability
Erin B. Munsell, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. C. Didlake Jr., S. A. Braun, and F. Zhang

39
Radar-Derived Thermodynamic Structure of Hurricane Rita (2005) in Vertical Wind Shear
Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. M. Foerster

40
Evolution of the Upper-Level Thermal Structure in Reanalyzed Tropical Cyclones
Louis Rivoire, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and T. Birner

41
Accounting for Errors when Projecting Data onto a TC-Centered Space
Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and L. P. Cowan

Handout (2.0 MB)

42
Exploring Eyewall Contraction Using the FLIGHT+ Dataset
Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. L. Vigh

43
Automated Cyclone Detection Using Lagrangian Flow Topology
Blake Rutherford, NWRA, Redmond, WA; and M. A. Boothe, M. T. Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton

44A
Flow Boundaries and Ventilation of Tropical Cylones in Idealized Scenarios with Varying Wind Shear
Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and F. Sadlo and Y. Wang


Poster Session 4
Climate and Large-scale Circulation
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
45
Changes in Tropical Regional Circulation Under Global Warming: The Role of Vertical Structure of Convection in Current Climate
Chao-An Chen, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. Y. Yu and C. Chou

46
A 10-Year GOES-East-Based Climatology of Cold Lows
John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

47
Classification of Rainfall Regimes over North-Western Australia in Observations and CMIP5 Models
Scott Clark, Monash Univ., Clayton, Australia; and M. J. Reeder and C. Jakob

48
Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project
Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and K. A. Reed, M. Satoh, B. Stevens, S. Bony, and T. Ohno


Poster Session 5
DA & Observing Systems
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
52
A Comprehensive Tropical Cyclone Observations Dataset
Kathryn Sellwood, Univ. of Miami CIMAS and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, H. Christophersen, B. A. Dahl, and S. Aberson

53
55
Plans for Data Assimilation and Forecast Experiment with Dropsondes during T-PARCII
Kosuke Ito, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, and K. Tsuboki


Poster Session 6
High Impact Hurricanes of 2017: The Science and Impacts
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 57 has been moved. New paper number is 10D.5A

60
Verifying Hindcast Simulations of Recent Major Hurricanes in Variable-Resolution CAM
Alyssa M Stansfield, SUNY Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY; and K. A. Reed, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. F. Wehner

61
Documentation of Eyewall Replacement Cycle Completion during Hurricane Maria
Cristina N Pereda, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

62
Hurricane Irma: Assessing the Local Tornado Threat and Corresponding Potential Impacts across East Central Florida
William Ulrich, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and K. Rodriguez, P. Blottman, D. S. Kelly, M. Bragaw, J. Guseman, D. Sharp, and S. M. Spratt

63
Inland Severe Weather Impacts Produced by Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., P. P. Dodge, J. A. Zhang, and F. D. Marks Jr.

64
Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central-eastern Atlantic over the Past 30 Years
Gregory R. Foltz, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and K. Balaguru and L. R. Leung

65
Relating the Evolution of Storm Intensity to the Low-Wave Number Depiction of Storm Structure from Satellite-observed Precipitation and Wind of the 2017 Hurricanes Irma, Jose and Maria: Are There Telltale Signs of Forthcoming Rapid Intensification?
Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and Z. S. Haddad, T. P. J. Shen, F. J. Turk, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, Q. A. Vu, B. H. Lambrigtsen, and W. L. Poulsen

66
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Young-Kwon Lim, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, R. Kovach, A. Molod, and S. Pawson
Manuscript (14.5 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

67
Instability between the Concentric Eyewalls of Hurricane Maria (2017)
Christopher J. Slocum, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and J. P. Kossin, R. K. Taft, and W. H. Schubert

68
An Analysis of Hurricane Irma's Winds in South Florida
Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA, Miami, FL; and A. B. Hagen and S. Konarik
Manuscript (864.4 kB)

Poster 69 has been moved. New paper number 6A.2A.

70
The Evolution of Hurricane Irma's Wind Field Structure
Cassandra M Leahy, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Tallahassee, FL

71
Preliminary Assessment of Wind- and Storm Surge-Induced Residential Building Damage Caused By Hurricane Harvey (2017)
Richard J Krupar III, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. B. Roueche, D. J. Smith, and F. T. Lombardo


Poster Session 7
Monsoon
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
74
Intraseasonal Monsoon Phase Transitions Viewed from Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalysis Data Sets
Dipak Sahu, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

75
On the Mei-Yu Rainband and its Role in Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon
Juliane Schwendike, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and G. J. Berry and C. E. Birch

76
A Moist Entropy Budget View of South Asian Summer Monsoon Onset
Ding Ma, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and J. Nie, A. H. Sobel, Z. Kuang, and M. S. Singh

77
Synoptic-Dynamic Analysis, Predictability and Convection-Permitting Simulations of an Extreme Precipitation Event Affecting Ho Chi Minh City on 26 September 2016
Roderick van der Linden, Univ. of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and A. H. Fink, M. V. Khiem, T. Phan-Van, and J. G. Pinto

78
On the Maintenance of Large Anomaly Fields during a Record-Breaking Monsoon Drought Via Scale Interactions.
Sarvesh Kumar Dubey, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti


Poster Session 8
Numerical Modeling
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
81
Large Eddy Simulations of Hurricane Intensification
Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Sroka
Manuscript (1.8 MB)

82
Global 7km Mesh Nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for Improving TYphoon Forecast (TYMIP-G7): Joaquin (2015) and Lionrock (2016) Cases
Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and A. Wada, H. Yoshimura, and R. Onishi

83
Impact of Revisions to RRTMG Cloudy Radiative Transfer on Tropical Cyclone Evolution in HWRF
John M Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and M. J. Iacono, M. K. Biswas, E. Kalina, K. M. Newman, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, E. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

Handout (5.4 MB)

84
A New Coupled Ocean-Wave-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies in the SW Indian Ocean Basin
Joris Pianezze, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint-Denis, France; and C. Barthe, S. Bielli, P. Tulet, S. Jullien, G. Cambon, O. Bousquet, M. Clayes, and E. Cordier

85
Verification of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Nicholas Leonardo, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Poster 86 has been moved. New paper number is 10B.7A

89
Improving the Use of Dropsondes for NOAA Operations: HWRF Vortex-Scale Data Assimilation Applications
Henry Winterbottom, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Sippel, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

90
Performance of MPAS for Tropical Cyclone Prediction in 2016 and 2017 Seasons
Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Ahijevych, C. Davis, and B. Skamarock

Handout (5.0 MB)

91
Sensitivity of HWRF Simulations to Parameter Variations in the Grell-Freitas Convection Scheme
Evelyn D. Grell, CIRES/ESRL/PSD, DTC, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, G. A. Grell, E. Kalina, K. M. Newman, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

92
Fostering Community Involvement in the Advancement of Physical Parameterizations for the NCEP Global Model
Ligia Bernardet, CU/CIRES at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, L. Nance, B. Kuo, V. Tallapragada, M. Farrar, F. Toepfer, and G. A. Grell

94
Probabilistic Forecasts of Cyclone-induced Hazards within SPICY Project
Hubert Quetelard, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde, France; and F. Bonnardot, S. Lecacheux, and M. D. Leroux

Handout (1.6 MB)


Poster Session 9
Operations & Landfall
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
96
A Baseline Storm Surge Ensemble Methodology for Pacific Islands – the PACSURGE System
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. R. Sampson, Y. Lau, and J. A. Knaff

99
Factors Important for Tropical Cyclone Tracking in NWP Output
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

100
Further Improvement in the SHIPS Using Rainfall and Structural Features
Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, and M. DeMaria


Poster Session 10
Climate Change
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
101
Anthropogenic Influences on the Intensity and Rainfall of Major Tropical Cyclone Events
Christina M Patricola, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and M. F. Wehner and D. Stone

102
Analysis of Hurricane Noel (2007) Simulated by Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Julian Eric Gordon, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC

104
A New Look at the Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall in East Africa
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

105
An Improved Methodology for Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclones Under Changing Climate
Reda Snaiki, Univ. at Buffalo, State Univ. of New York, Buffalo, NY; and T. Wu
Manuscript (1.9 MB)

106
Contribution of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific
Jiuwei Zhao, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology; Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI
Manuscript (39.0 kB)

107
Is Climate Change Redefining the Speed Limit of Tropical Cyclones?
Kieran Bhatia, Princeton Univ./GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, J. P. Kossin, T. R. Knutson, and H. Murakami

108
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer Seas
Jill C. Trepanier, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA

110
Using Tropical Cyclone Genesis Indices to Assess Changes in Tropical Cyclone Seasonality Due to a Warming Climate
Ana P Torres-Vazquez, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann


Poster Session 11
African Weather and Climate
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
111
The Role of Low-Level Clouds over Southern West Africa in the Regional Monsoon System – Experiments Using the ICON Model
Anke Kniffka, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz and A. H. Fink

112
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa
Peter Vogel, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and T. Gneiting

113
High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction over Africa for Operational Use
Caroline L. Bain, UKMO, Exeter, UK; and S. Webster

114
The Interaction between Mesoscale Convective Systems and African Easterly Waves
James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer

Handout (882.5 kB)

115
Variability of Interannual-to-Decadal Teleconnections Observed over the Greater Horn of Africa in the 20th Century
Titike K. Bahaga, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink and P. Knippertz

116
Variability of African Easterly Wave Characteristics
Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and A. Brammer

117
The African Easterly Jet: Structure and Effect on Easterly Wave Development
Amana Hosten, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. E. Nicholson

Handout (2.8 MB)

117A
Essential Ingredients and Mechanisms for Extreme Rainfall in East Africa During the 2016 El Nino
Bantwale Diress Enyew, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin


Poster Session 12
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
119
Forecast Challenges for the Hurricane Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) Model
Anu Simon, Cyberdata Technologies Inc., Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, D. R. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky

121
The Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure Using the Analog Ensemble Technique
Christopher M. Rozoff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Alessandrini, W. E. Lewis, and L. delle Monache

122
Comparison of HWRF Operational Cycles with and without Secondary Eyewalls
Federico DiCatarina, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Abarca, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

123
HWRF Development Constrains by Storm Sample Choice
Kevin J. Dougherty, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, D. T. Kleist, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

126
Further Development of a Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

127
A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclones under the Influence of Terrain
Hao-Yan Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Handout (2.3 MB)

128
Improved Intensity Prediction in COAMPS-TC
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, J. R. Moskaitis, S. Chen, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, P. A. Reinecke, S. Wang, D. R. Ryglicki, and D. P. Stern

130
Impact of Different Ocean Conditions Present in the Bay of Bengal on Coupled TC Intensity Prediction
Shyama Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, India; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., S. G. Gopalakrishnan, J. Dong, H. S. Kim, F. D. Marks Jr., and U. C. Mohanty

Handout (1.3 MB)

131
Topology-Based Visualization and Tracking of Hurricane Inner Core Features in HWRF and HMON Models
Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, W. Wang, L. Zhu, S. Abarca, Z. Zhang, V. Tallapragada, and A. Mehra

132
Precipitation Evaluation of the Real-Time Basin-Scale HWRF in 2017
Mu-Chieh Ko, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., G. J. Alaka Jr., and S. G. Gopalakrishnan
Manuscript (983.2 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

133
Toward High Horizontal and Vertical Resolution Convection Resolving Modeling in Operational Hurricane Forecasting
Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, S. Abarca, W. Wang, Q. Liu, K. Wu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada


Poster Session 13
Tropical Cyclogenesis
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
135
Birth of the Biscane
Michael Maier-Gerber, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and F. Pantillon, E. Di Muzio, M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz

136
Why Are There Approximately 100 Tropical Cyclones Annually on Earth?
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and T. A. Vu and D. R. Chavas

137
138
Multi-Scale Shear Impacts During the Genesis of Typhoon Hagupit (2008)
Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

139
The Role of African Easterly Waves North of the African Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclogenesis
Joshua J. Alland, SUNY, Albany, NY; and Y. M. Cheng, K. L. Corbosiero, C. D. Thorncroft, and B. H. Tang

Handout (7.1 MB)

141
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, A. B. Schumacher, J. H. Cossuth, K. D. Musgrave, and P. Leighton

142
Do Easterly Waves Matter for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis?
Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. D. White and J. O. H. Russell

147
Environmental Flow Patterns of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the western North Pacific
Yoshida Ryuji, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan; and F. Hironori

Handout (438.6 kB)


Poster Session 14
Tropical Extratropical Interactions
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
149
Subseasonal Variability of Rossby Wave Breaking and Its Impacts on Tropical Cyclones during the North Atlantic Warm Season
Weiwei Li, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, G. Zhang, M. S. Peng, S. Benjamin, and M. Zhao

150
152
Different Flavors of Normals: Accounting for ENSO and Climate Change
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and A. Arguez, A. K. Inamdar, M. Palecki, and A. H. Young

153
High Latitude Late Season Hurricanes: Changing Risk?
Kimberly Roberts, JLT Re, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Darr


Poster Session 15
Tropical Waves Posters
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
154
Statistical Forecasting of Tropical Rainfall Based on Spatio-Temporal Correlations and Equatorial Waves
Andreas Schlueter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, T. Gneiting, A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz

Poster 155 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.4A.

156
Tropical Wave Diagnostics: From Research to Operations
Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny, M. A. Janiga, and P. P. Papin

157
Revisiting the Vertical Structure of Dry and Moist Kelvin Waves.
Ahmed A. Shaaban, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

158
Tropical Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific
Liang Wu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Wen, R. Wu, and R. Huang

160
Extreme Mountain Gap Wind Events in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
Adolfo Lugo Rios, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Handout (7.6 MB)

161
Structure and Propagation of Indian Low-Pressure Systems in GFDL AM4.0
Ángel F. Adames, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming

162
Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over Tropical South America Region
Victor R. Chavez Sr., NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. N. Kiladis, P. L. Silva Dias, and T. Ambrizzi

5:30 PM-6:45 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


CYGNSS and TROPICS: NASA SmallSat Missions to Probe Tropical Cyclones
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan
Speakers: William J. Blackwell, MIT Lincoln Laboratory; Jason P. Dunion, AOML; Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan; Felix C. Seidel, NASA/MSFC; James Doyle, NRL

7:15 PM-9:15 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2018


Workshop
GOES-R Series Workshop: Tropical Applications for Users
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Janel R. Thomas, Science and Technology Corporation
CoChair: Michael J. Folmer, CICS
Speakers: Michael Stringer, NOAA/NESDIS; Janel R. Thomas, Science and Technology Corporation; Michael J. Folmer, CICS; Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.; John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

Wednesday, 18 April 2018

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 8A
Tropical Waves
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma
8:00 AM
8A.1
Multiscale Organization in Simulated Shear Parallel Mesoscale Convective Systems
Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. Han

8:30 AM
8A.3
Synoptic-Scale Waves in Sheared Background Flow over the Western North Pacific
Tao Feng, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and R. Huang, X. Q. Yang, W. Zhou, L. Wu, and D. Yang
8:45 AM
8A.4A
9:15 AM
8A.6
Recording files available
Session 8B
Numerical Modeling I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School
8:15 AM
8B.2
Météo-France New NWP Models in Tropical Regions
Ghislain Faure, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and P. Chambon and C. Lebeaupin Brossier
8:30 AM
8B.3
Evaluation of the Performance of the GFDL FV3 Forecast Model on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Prediction
Morris A. Bender, Princeton Univ. AOS, Princeton, NJ; and A. Hazelton, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris
8:45 AM
8B.4
An Evaluation of Surface Wind Structure Forecasts from the fvGFS and Operational Dynamical Models
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin, J. Knaff, C. R. Sampson, A. Hazelton, and S. J. Lin
9:15 AM
8B.6
High-Resolution Hurricane Reanalysis and Reforecasts Using State-of-the-Art Operational HWRF Model
Zaizhong Ma, IMSG & NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. Mehra and V. Tallapragada
9:30 AM
8B.7
3-km Nested fvGFS Forecasts of 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Andrew Hazelton, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. Harris, S. J. Lin, M. A. Bender, and M. J. Morin
9:45 AM
8B.8
Tropical Cyclone Prediction Skill and MJO Dependence in the S2S Dataset
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, and M. K. Tippett
Recording files available
Session 8C
Tropical Cyclone Structure V
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ.
8:15 AM
8C.2
Double Warm-Core Structure of Typhoon Lan (2017) as Observed through Upper-Tropospheric Aircraft Reconnaissance during T-PARCII
Hiroyuki Yamada, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan; and K. Tsuboki, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Ito, M. Yamaguchi, and T. Nakazawa
8:30 AM
8C.3
Analyzing the Thermodynamic Impact of Shear on Tropical Cyclones using Dropsondes
Emily Paltz, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and L. Nguyen, R. F. Rogers, and J. Zawislak
8:45 AM
8C.4A
A Direct Observation study on the Horizontal Helical Rolls in the Typhoon Boundary Layer
Jie Tang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration, PRC, Shanghai, China; and P. W. Chan and X. Lei

9:00 AM
8C.5
The Anatomy of a Convective Envelope in Sheared, Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Ryglicki, J. H. Cossuth, D. Hodyss, Y. Jin, and K. C. Viner
9:15 AM
8C.6
Understanding Atypical Mid-Level Wind Speed Maxima in Hurricane Eyewalls
Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Kepert, J. D. Doyle, and G. H. Bryan
9:45 AM
8C.8
The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle in CM1 Using an Ensemble Approach
Sarah Dunn Ditchek, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari, R. G. Fovell, and K. L. Corbosiero
Recording files available
Session 8D
NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jason P. Dunion, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, NOAA/AOML/HRD
CoChair: Gary A. Wick, NOAA-OAR, Earth Systems Research Laboratory
8:00 AM
8D.1
SHOUT: A Project Overview, Operations Summary, and Introduction to Its Forecast Impact for Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones
Gary A. Wick, NOAA-OAR, Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Dunion, R. E. Hood, P. G. Black, P. M. Kenul, J. J. Coffey, and M. L. Black
8:15 AM
8D.2
The High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) on the Global Hawk for TC Reconnaissance: Observations during the SHOUT Campaign
Shannon T. Brown, JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and B. Lambrigtsen, M. Schreier, B. H. Lim, I. Ramos, and A. Tanner
8:30 AM
8D.3A
Highlights of Global Hawk HIWRAP Radar Measurements During NOAA SHOUT Hurricane Flights
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. R. Guimond, M. McLinden, and L. Li
8:45 AM
8D.4
Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts
Hui Christophersen, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, J. P. Dunion, and S. Aberson
9:15 AM
8D.6
The Impact of Global Hawk Dropsondes on NCEP Hurricane Forecasts
Jason A. Sippel, AOML, Miami, FL; and K. L. Howard and V. Tallapragada
9:30 AM
8D.7
Emerging Airborne Technologies for improved TC Track and Intensity Forecasting: A vision for the next Decade based on Preliminary Observations from SHOUT and EPOCH Programs
Peter G Black, NOAA, Salinas, CA; and A. E. Emory, G. Wick, J. Dunion, J. A. Sippel, V. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, L. Magnusson, and M. L. Dahoui
9:45 AM
8D.8
It Takes Two: NASA and NOAA's Shared Path of Hurricane Science Flights with the Global Hawk. Time for the Research To Operations (R2O) Transition?
Amber E. Emory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Wick, J. P. Dunion, M. McLinden, M. Schreier, P. G. Black, R. E. Hood, J. A. Sippel, and V. Tallapragada

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 9A
Climate and Large-Scale Circulation
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Liguang Wu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology
CoChair: James Kossin, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC
10:30 AM
9A.1
Patterns of North Atlantic Decadal Variability and Hurricane Intensity Change
James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and M. Ting, S. Camargo, and K. Emanuel
11:00 AM
9A.3
The Role of the Cloud Radiative Effect in the Sensitivity of the ITCZ to Convective Mixing.
Joshua F Talib, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and S. Woolnough, N. P. Klingaman, and C. E. Holloway
11:30 AM
9A.5
The Effect of Large-Scale 16-Day Free Rossby Waves on Tropical Convection.
Ernesto W. Findlay, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

11:45 AM
9A.6
Energetic Constraints and the ITCZ in Idealized Simulations with a Seasonal Cycle
Ho-Hsuan Wei, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni
Recording files available
Session 9B
Numerical Modeling II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office
10:30 AM
9B.1
The Performance of the NCEP and ECMWF Operational Models for Tropical Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts during 2015-2016
George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, N. Sakaeda, P. Bechtold, and T. Haiden
10:45 AM
9B.2
Evaluating Tropical Cyclones Simulated by a Global Convection-Permitting Model.
K. Ryder Fox, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and F. Judt and D. Ahijevych
11:00 AM
9B.3
How Well Can the Met Office Unified Model Predict Tropical Cyclones?
Christopher Short, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and J. Petch and S. Webster
11:15 AM
9B.4
Tropical Cyclones in the Global 8.5km GFDL fvGFS
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Zhou, L. M. Harris, and S. Rees
11:30 AM
9B.5
Tropical Cyclones and Resolution Sensitivity in HighResMIP GCMs
Malcolm J. Roberts, UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK; and P. L. Vidale, K. Hodges, L. P. Caron, R. Haarsma, E. Scoccimarro, and A. Bellucci
12:00 PM
9B.7
Probabilistic Analysis of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season from a Continuously Cycled Basin-Scale HWRF Data Assimilation and Prediction System
Jonathan Poterjoy, NOAA, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, J. A. Sippel, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, A. Aksoy, and X. Wang
Recording files available
Session 9C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity I: External Influences
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, NCAR
10:45 AM
9C.2
Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs
Michael S. Fischer, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and K. L. Corbosiero
11:30 AM
9C.5
Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models
Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, D. Kim, Y. Moon, M. Bosilovich, H. Murakami, K. A. Reed, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao
11:45 AM
9C.6
Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Weakening on a Global Scale
Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS
12:00 PM
9C.7A
The SWIO-TC Experiment: A Field Experiment to Improve Understanding and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in the SW Indian Ocean
Olivier Bousquet, LACY (UMR 8105), Saint-Denis, Reunion; and J. P. Duvel, R. F. Rogers, P. Caroff, F. Roux, and P. Tulet
Recording files available
Session 9D
Boundary Layer UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Joseph J. Cione, NOAA
Cochairs: Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami; George H. Bryan, NCAR
10:30 AM
9D.1
Coyote UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017)
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, K. Ryan, J. A. Zhang, B. A. Dahl, E. A. Kalina, E. J. Dumas Jr., R. J. Dobosy, G. H. Bryan, A. Farber, C. Troudt, B. Kent, B. B. Baker, M. S. Buban, R. Wiggins, T. R. Lee, F. D. Marks, G. deBoer, C. Fairall, B. W. Klotz, H. Holbach, J. Zawislak, and G. R. Halliwell Jr.
10:45 AM
9D.2
A First Look at Turbulence Intensity at Low Altitude in the Eyewall of a Hurricane from Coyote small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (sUAS)
Ronald J. Dobosy, NOAA and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN; and E. J. Dumas Jr., G. H. Bryan, E. A. Kalina, J. A. Zhang, C. Troudt, A. Farber, J. J. Cione, C. B. Baker, T. R. Lee, A. Aksoy, M. K. Biswas, G. de Boer, B. A. Dahl, C. Fairall, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, F. D. Marks, K. Ryan, R. Wiggins, and J. Zawislak
11:00 AM
9D.3
Using Coyote UAS Observations to Evaluate Large-Eddy Simulations (and Vice Versa)
George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Aksoy, B. Baker, J. J. Cione, B. A. Dahl, G. de Boer, R. J. Dobosy, E. Dumas, C. Fairall, A. Farber, G. R. Halliwell Jr., E. A. Kalina, B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, T. R. Lee, F. Marks, K. Ryan, C. Troudt, R. Wiggins, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang
11:15 AM
9D.4
A Data Impact Study Using Coyote UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria (2017)
Altug Aksoy, AOML, Miami, FL; and B. A. Dahl, R. Wiggins, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. R. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, F. D. Marks Jr., and H. Holbach
11:30 AM
9D.5
Improving Coyote UAS Tropical Cyclone Sampling Strategies in an OSSE
Brittany A. Dahl, Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, R. Wiggins, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. A. Kalina, J. Zhang, H. Holbach, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. R. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, and F. D. Marks Jr.
11:45 AM
9D.6
Impact of Ensemble-Based Targeting for Coyote UAS Observations in an OSSE
Rani Wiggins, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Dahl, A. Aksoy, J. J. Cione, K. Ryan, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. J. Dumas Jr., B. Baker, A. Farber, B. Kent, C. Troudt, T. R. Lee, R. J. Dobosy, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, G. H. Bryan, F. D. Marks Jr., and H. Holbach
12:00 PM
9D.7
Using Conventional Observations and Coyote UAS Data to Evaluate the Grell-Freitas Cumulus Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System
Evan A. Kalina, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and E. Grell, M. K. Biswas, G. A. Grell, K. M. Newman, J. J. Cione, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, J. Frimel, A. Aksoy, B. B. Baker, G. H. Bryan, B. A. Dahl, G. de Boer, R. J. Dobosy, E. J. Dumas Jr., C. W. Fairall, A. Farber, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, T. R. Lee, K. Ryan, C. Troudt, R. Wiggins, R. Worsnop, J. Zawislak, and J. A. Zhang

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 10A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech; Charles Jones, Univ. of California
1:30 PM
10A.1
Dependence of MJO Phase Speed on Background Flow
Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. M. Setzenfand
1:45 PM
10A.2
2:00 PM
10A.3
Unified Spectrum of Tropical Rainfall and Waves in a Simple Stochastic Model
Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Hottovy
2:30 PM
10A.5
A Study of Moisture Budget of Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool
Ching-Shu Hung, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui and W. T. Chen
2:45 PM
10A.6
The MJO in the Navy Earth System Model: An Overview of Predictive Skill and Impacts
Matthew Adam Janiga, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. Reynolds
3:00 PM
10A.7
Relationship Between Phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and MJO Propagation Through the Maritime Continent
Casey R Densmore, US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett, E. R. Sanabia, and P. Ray
3:15 PM
10A.8
The Madden-Julian Oscillation's Influence on Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. C. J. Oliver, C. J. Schreck III, M. M. Bell, and S. G. Bowen
Recording files available
Session 10B
Numerical Modeling III
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Fiorino, NOAA
1:30 PM
10B.1
2:00 PM
10B.3
Large Eddy Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Evolution
Liguang Wu, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
2:15 PM
10B.4
Evaluation and Modification of a TKE-based PBL Scheme in HMON
Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada
2:45 PM
10B.6
Evaluating the Impact of Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization into Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria Simulations Using FV3GFS
Keren Rosado, NCAS/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, E. A. Kalina, and M. Fiorino
3:15 PM
10B.8
Impact of Differences in Initial Conditions on Rapid Intensification Forecasting for NCEP Hurricane Models
Lin Zhu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, B. Liu, Q. Liu, W. Wang, K. Wu, B. Zhang, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada
Recording files available
Session 10C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity II: Rapid Intensification
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany
1:30 PM
10C.1
The Role of Downshear Reformation in the Rapid Intensification of a Tropical Cyclone
Xiaomin Chen, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang, J. Fang, and M. Xue
2:15 PM
10C.4
The Role of the WISHE Mechanism in Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones
Chieh-Jen Cheng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu
2:30 PM
10C.5
Impacts of SST Patterns on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)
Sachie Kanada, Nagoya Univ., Nagoya, Japan; and S. Tsujino, H. Aiki, M. K. Yoshioka, Y. Miyazawa, K. Tsuboki, and I. Takayabu

3:15 PM
10C.8
An Analysis of Hurricane Edouard SST Sensitivity Runs By HWRF in a Neutral-Shear Environment
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and J. Dong, Y. Lau, H. S. Kim, L. Zhu, and A. Mehra
Recording files available
Session 10D
TC Remote Sensing I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Haiyan Jiang, Florida International Univ.; Derrick Herndon, Univ. of Wisconsin
1:30 PM
10D.1
A Global Tropical Cyclone Eye Climatology from HURSAT B1
Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and C. S. Velden and A. Wimmers
1:45 PM
10D.2
2:00 PM
10D.3
Ocean Surface Stress Under Tropical Cyclones Observed from Space
W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie and W. Tang
2:15 PM
10D.4
A Moisture In-Flux Storm Tool for Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting
Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. L. Beven
2:30 PM
10D.5A
2:45 PM
10D.6
A Satellite-based Analysis of Mid-Tropospheric Humidity and Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Brian J. Soden, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. S. Chung, D. Yeomans, and J. H. Cossuth
3:00 PM
10D.7
GOES-16 ABI & GLM L2+ Product Operational Status
Wayne M. MacKenzie Jr., NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Seybold, J. Daniels, E. M. Kline, and T. Feroli
3:15 PM
10D.8
Intensity and Size of Strong Tropical Cyclones in 2017 from NASA's SMAP L-Band Radiometer
Thomas Meissner, Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., Santa Rosa, CA; and L. Ricciardulli, F. Wentz, and C. Sampson

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 11A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy; Paul Roundy, SUNY
4:00 PM
11A.1
Surface Fluxes and Beyond: Direct and Indirect Ocean Feedbacks to the MJO in Four GCMs
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and N. P. Klingaman, W. L. Tseng, M. A. Burt, and D. A. Randall
4:15 PM
11A.2
A Unified Moisture Mode Framework for Seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Xianan Jiang, Univ. of California, Pasadena, CA; and Á. F. Adames, M. Zhao, E. D. Maloney, and D. E. Waliser
4:30 PM
11A.3
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Mean Global Easterly Winds
Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs and D. J. Raymond
5:00 PM
11A.5
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations in the MJO Skeleton Model with Observation-Based Forcing
H. Reed Ogrosky, Virginia Commonwealth Univ., Richmond, VA; and S. N. Stechmann and A. J. Majda
5:30 PM
11A.7
5:45 PM
11A.8
Recording files available
Session 11B
Catastrophe Modeling
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter Wolf, NOAA/NWS
4:00 PM
11B.1
How Often Should We Expect Losses on the Scale of Harvey or Irma?
Annes Haseemkunju, CoreLogic, Oakland, CA; and M. Khater, D. F. Smith, and J. Brolley
4:15 PM
11B.2
New Storm Surge Catastrophe Model for Great Britain and Beyond
Richard M. Yablonsky, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Keshtpoor and A. Blair
4:30 PM
11B.3
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Hindcasting Using ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System
Nadia Bloemendaal, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands; and S. Muis, R. Haarsma, M. Irazoqui Apecechea, M. Verlaan, H. de Moel, P. J. Ward, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
4:45 PM
11B.4
What Value do Natural Coastlines have in Reducing Hurricane Storm Surge Risk?
Siddarth Narayan, Univ. of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA; and M. W. Beck, P. S. Wilson, C. J. Thomas, A. Guerrero, C. C. Shepard, B. G. Reguero, G. E. Franco, J. C. Ingram, and D. Trespalacios

5:00 PM
11B.5
Sensitivity Analysis of Upwind Fetches for More Accurate Effective Roughness in Landfalling Hurricanes
Sylvie Lorsolo, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and M. Clavner, P. J. Sousounis, S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, and E. W. Uhlhorn

5:15 PM
11B.6
Tropical Cyclone Hazards in a Changing Climate – Results from a New, Columbia Hazard Model
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo

5:30 PM
11B.7
Probabilistic Temporal Extension of a New Parametric Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Model
Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and E. W. Uhlhorn and M. Clavner

5:45 PM
11B.8
A Hurricane Boundary Layer Model for Simulating Surface Winds during Hurricane Landfall
Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and C. Nowakowski and K. Gao
Recording files available
Session 11C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity III: Boundary Layer Processes
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
4:15 PM
11C.2
Observed Features of the Hurricane Inner-core Boundary Layer During Intensity Change
Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and R. Hart
5:15 PM
11C.6
A Prognostic Axisymmetric Balance Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and H. H. Bui
5:30 PM
11C.7
Revisiting the Boundary Layer Spin Up Mechanism in Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Refuting Recent Challenges.
Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith and J. Persing
Recording files available
Session 11D
TC Remote Sensing II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin; Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS
4:00 PM
11D.1
The Naval Research Laboratory Tropical Cyclone Webpage (NRL TC Web): Providing Real-Time Storm Monitoring for 20 Years
Joshua H. Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Richardson, M. L. Surratt, R. L. Bankert, C. R. Sampson, J. Kent, and J. D. Hawkins
4:15 PM
11D.2
Overview and Performance Simulations of the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission
William J. Blackwell, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, T. Greenwald, D. C. Herndon, M. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, R. Atlas, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr., R. Rogers, B. Annane, and H. Christophersen
4:30 PM
11D.3
Applications of NASA TROPICS Data for Tropical Cyclone Analysis, Nowcasting, and Impacts
Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. P. Dunion, W. J. Blackwell, S. Braun, D. S. Green, C. S. Velden, R. F. Adler, J. H. Cossuth, J. J. Murray, and M. J. Brennan
4:45 PM
11D.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation from the TROPICS CubeSat Satellite Constellation
Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. Velden, R. Bennartz, and Z. Li
5:45 PM
11D.8
Hurricane Boundary Layer Wind Profiles Estimated From Satellite SAR Images
Ralph C. Foster, APL, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. A. Zhang and P. G. Black

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2018


Reception
Location: Sawgrass Pool (Sawgrass Marriott)

Thursday, 19 April 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 12A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO III
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Daehyun Kim, Univ. of Washington; Ángel F. Adames, GFDL
8:00 AM
12A.1
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the West Pacific Warm Pool
David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Fuchs
8:15 AM
12A.2
8:45 AM
12A.4A
MJO-QBO Connection Revealed from Tracking MJO precipitation
Chidong Zhang, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and B. S. Zhang

9:00 AM
12A.5A
On the Relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Hadley and Walker Circulations
Juliane Schwendike, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and G. J. Berry, K. Fodor, and M. J. Reeder

9:15 AM
12A.6
Topography, Diurnal Cycle and the MJO in the Maritime Continent
Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and H. Tan and B. S. Barrett
9:45 AM
12A.8
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Lindsey N. Long, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD
Recording files available
Session 12B
TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI field campaign I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: James Doyle, NRL; Patrick A. Harr, Jupiter Technology
8:15 AM
12B.2
Numerical Simulation of Rapid Intensifying Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Nannan Qin, Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China; and D. L. Zhang
8:30 AM
12B.3
Potential Vorticity Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. Martinez, J. D. Doyle, and R. F. Rogers
8:45 AM
12B.4A
On the Hypothesized Outflow Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and J. Persing and R. K. Smith
9:00 AM
12B.6
9:15 AM
12B.5A
Evaluation of COAMPS-TC Forecasts For Hurricane Patricia (2015) Using a New Dynamic Initialization Scheme with ONR TCI Datasets
Mary S. Jordan, NPS, CA; and E. A. Hendricks, R. L. Elsberry, K. Breach, C. S. Velden, and M. M. Bell
9:30 AM
12B.7
Multi-Scale Sensitivity and Predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Holdaway, W. A. Komaromi, J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke, and C. M. Amerault
Recording files available
Session 12C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV: Axisymmetric Dynamics
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Brian Tang, SUNY
8:00 AM
12C.1
Exploring the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Emanuel, M. K. Biswas, E. A. Hendricks, and C. M. Rozoff
8:15 AM
12C.2
Physical Understanding of the Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationship
Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Reed and J. A. Knaff
8:30 AM
12C.3
8:45 AM
12C.4
Upper Tropospheric Temperature Impacts in Idealized Hurricanes
Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell
9:15 AM
12C.6
Hurricane Maximum Intensity Stability
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and Q. Wang
9:30 AM
12C.7
Available Potential Energy Density Budget for an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone
Bethan L. Harris, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and R. Tailleux, C. E. Holloway, and P. L. Vidale
9:45 AM
12C.8
Evaluation of a Time-Dependent Model for the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones
Ke Peng, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and R. Rotunno and G. H. Bryan
Recording files available
Session 12D
Convection I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California; Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT
8:00 AM
12D.1
Convective Process Experiment (CPEX) 2017
Shuyi S Chen, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. J. Zipser
8:30 AM
12D.3
Re-examining the Non-Linear Moisture-Precipitation Relationship in SSM/I Version 7
Stephanie S. Rushley, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, C. Bretherton, and M. S. Ahn
8:45 AM
12D.4
Analysis of the Temperature Structures Associated with Tropical Precipitation
Meri Virman, Univ. of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; and M. Bister, V. A. Sinclair, H. Järvinen, and J. Räisänen
9:00 AM
12D.5
Radiative Invigoration of Tropical Convection by Preceding Cirrus Clouds
Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya Univ., Nagoya, Japan; and S. Bony
9:15 AM
12D.6
Evaluating Lagrangian Model Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Metrics for Balanced Dynamics
Sharon Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and K. R. Fox, S. Sentic, and P. T. Haertel
9:45 AM
12D.8
Impact of Saharan Dust Aerosols on Convections over the Tropical East Atlantic Ocean
Yongsheng Chen, York Univ., Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Mamun and J. Liang

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 13A
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO IV
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State Univ.; Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology
10:30 AM
13A.1
Multiscale Structure of the Slow Kelvin Waves That Make up the MJO
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and G. N. Kiladis, J. Dias, and T. Nasuno
10:45 AM
13A.2
11:00 AM
13A.3
Planetary Scale Intraseasonal Disturbances
Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
11:15 AM
13A.4
11:30 AM
13A.5
Elevated Heat Source and the Eastward Propagation of the Low-level Response
Yan Liu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Z. M. Tan and Z. Wu

11:45 AM
13A.6
Impact of the Boreal Summer Quasi-biweekly Oscillation on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
Haikun Zhao, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
12:00 PM
13A.7
Recording files available
Session 13B
TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI field campaign II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC; Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL
10:30 AM
13B.1
10:45 AM
13B.2A
Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments
Robert G. Nystrom, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and F. Zhang, E. B. Munsell, S. A. Braun, J. A. Sippel, Y. Weng, and K. A. Emanuel
11:00 AM
13B.3
11:30 AM
13B.5
Use of TCI-15 Datasets to Demonstrate New-Generation Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Improved Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Russell L. Elsberry, Univ. Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO; and E. A. Hendricks, C. S. Velden, M. M. Bell, M. S. Peng, E. DeLap, and A. Zhao

11:45 AM
13B.6
Improved COAMPS-TC Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using a Dynamic Initialization Scheme With Rapid-Scan Atmospheric Motion Vectors and ONR TCI datasets
Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry, M. M. Bell, C. Velden, E. DeLap, and M. S. Peng
Recording files available
Session 13C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity V: Three-Dimensional Dynamics
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA
10:30 AM
13C.1
The Role of Vorticity Aggregation in the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)
Sam Hardy, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK; and J. Schwendike, C. E. Birch, and R. K. Smith
10:45 AM
13C.2
Isentropic Analysis on the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Juan Fang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and O. Pauluis and F. Zhang
11:00 AM
13C.3
11:15 AM
13C.4
11:30 AM
13C.5
Paper 13C.7 has been withdrawn.

Recording files available
Session 13D
Convection II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California; Nadir Jeevanjee, MIT
10:30 AM
13D.1
10:45 AM
13D.2
11:00 AM
13D.3
11:15 AM
13D.4
A Spectral Budget for the Size of Convective Self-Aggregation
Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. W. Cronin and K. Emanuel
11:30 AM
13D.5
Convective Cold Pool Responses to Changes in Sea-Surface Temperature
Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever
11:45 AM
13D.6
Sensitivity of Tropical Climate to Convective Parameterization in Single Column CAM
I-Kuan Hu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. E. Mapes, R. B. Neale, A. Gettelman, and K. A. Reed
12:00 PM
13D.7
Cloud Regimes As Phase Transitions
Samuel N. Stechmann, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Hottovy

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 14A
Bill Gray Session: Up Moist, Down Dry
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael Fiorino, NOAA
1:45 PM
14A.2
2:00 PM
14A.3
Tropical Cyclone Composite Studies - A Gray Area
Matthew D. Eastin, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
2:15 PM
14A.4
In-up-and-out — William M. Gray’s Contribution and Legacy to Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Characteristics
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and J. A. Knaff
2:30 PM
14A.5
Tropical Cyclone Movement - Bill Gray's Contributions
Johnny C. L. Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and R. L. Elsberry
3:00 PM
14A.7
34 Years of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
3:15 PM
14A.8
Dr. Gray's Contributions on Tropical Cyclone Climate Variability and Change
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
Recording files available
Session 14B
TC Rainbands & Precip I
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Cheng-Ku Yu, National Taiwan Univ.; Michael Bell, NCAR
1:30 PM
14B.1
Global Hurricane GPROF Rain Rates, Hydrometeor Profiles and Latent Heat Profiles over Oceans.
Paula J. Brown, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. D. Musgrave

1:45 PM
14B.2
Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Distribution from Satellite Observations
Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Modi, T. R. Whitcomb, K. A. Richardson, and J. H. Cossuth
2:00 PM
14B.3
A Satellite and Radar Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Principal Rainbands
Anna Vaughan, The Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

2:15 PM
14B.4
Using GOES-16 to Analyze and Verify Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in Non-Radar Regions
Michael J. Folmer, CICS, College Park, MD; and M. L. Bozeman, R. J. Kuligowski, H. D. Cobb III, and N. A. Ramos
2:30 PM
14B.5
Kinematics and Microphysics of Convection in the Outer Rainband of Typhoon Nida (2016) Revealed by Polarimetric Radar
Dan Wu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and K. Zhao, M. R. Kumjian, X. Chen, A. C. Didlake Jr., and F. Zhang

2:45 PM
14B.6
3:00 PM
14B.7
Factors Leading to Extreme Precipitation on Dominica from Tropical Storm Erika (2015)
Alison D. Nugent, Univ. of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI; and R. Rios-Berrios
Recording files available
Session 14C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VI: Impacts of Vertical Shear
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Penn State Univ.
1:30 PM
14C.1
1:45 PM
14C.2
The Relationship Between Observed Thermodynamic and Precipitation Properties During Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change
Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, L. Nguyen, G. R. Alvey III, and E. Zipser
2:15 PM
14C.4
Vortex Structural Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Moderate Vertical Shear
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Nguyen, P. Reasor, J. Zawislak, and J. Zhang
3:15 PM
14C.8
Recording files available
Session 14D
Convection III
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Da Yang, Univ. of California
1:30 PM
14D.1
2:00 PM
14D.3
2:30 PM
14D.5
FiTT or FAT? Anvil Clouds and the Tropopause in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium
Jacob T. Seeley, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps and N. Jeevanjee
2:45 PM
14D.6
Mesoscale Momentum Flux in a 7km Mesh Global Atmosphere Model
Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. Mapes and W. M. Putman
3:00 PM
14D.7
3:15 PM
14D.8

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

Poster Session 16
Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
164
Real-Time Convection Permitting Forecasts for the Maritime Continent Using the Unified Model.
Stuart Webster, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and C. Short and A. Hartley

Poster 165 has been moved. New paper number is 8A.5A.

Poster 166 has been moved. New paper number is 15A.10A.

167
Diurnal Cycle of Convection Over the Philippines as a Function of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Activity
Kyle Chudler, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. Xu and S. A. Rutledge

168
Maritime Continent Influences on the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Global Model
Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. Dias, N. Sakaeda, and C. Zhang

169
Intraseasonal Variability in the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the South China Sea and Maritime Continent
Michael Natoli, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

170
Role of Topography on the MJO in the Maritime Continent
Haochen Tan, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray


Poster Session 17
Air-sea interaction
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
174
Ocean Surface Wave Impacts on SFMR Measurements in Tropical Cyclones
Heather M. Holbach, Florida State Univ., Northern Gulf Institute, and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and I. PopStefanija, B. W. Klotz, and M. A. Bourassa

175
A Study on the Correlation Analysis of Ocean Coupling Potential Intensity for Tropical Cyclones
Seonghee Won, KMA, Jeju, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. H. Kim, M. Choi, and M. Kim

176
WSRA Measurements of Ocean Directional Wave Spectra and Sea Surface Mean Square Slope
Ivan PopStefanija, ProSensing Inc., Amherst, MA; and N. Slavich, E. J. Walsh, and C. W. Fairall

Handout (759.6 kB)

177
Investigating the Effects of Sea Spray on Surface Wind Stress and Waves under Hurricane Conditions
Renee Richardson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and S. L. Morey

178
The Impact of Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation on Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim, S. G. Penny, A. Mehra, W. Wang, L. Zhu, and V. Tallapragada


Poster Session 18
Boundary Layer UAS Observations in Hurricane Maria
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
181
Evaluation of Hurricane Maria Boundary Layer Structure in HWRF Using UAS Coyote and NOAA P-3 Aircraft Observations
Kelly Ryan, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang, G. H. Bryan, J. J. Cione, E. Kalina, A. Aksoy, B. A. Dahl, A. Farber, B. Kent, B. W. Klotz, J. Zawislak, E. Dumas, B. Baker, G. R. Halliwell Jr., C. Troudt, C. W. Fairall, G. de Boer, and R. J. Dobosy

182
The Boundary Layer Structure of Hurricane Maria (2017) from a Combination of NOAA P3 Aircraft and UAS Coyote Observations
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, G. H. Bryan, R. Dobosy, J. Zawislak, B. A. Dahl, K. Ryan, A. Aksoy, E. Kalina, L. K. Shay, B. Jaimes, F. D. Marks Jr., E. J. Dumas Jr., R. Worsnop, G. de Boer, C. W. Fairall, G. R. Halliwell Jr., B. Baker, and B. Kent


Poster Session 19
Catastrophe Modeling
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
183
An Analysis of Storm Surge Swaths from Significant Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes
John A. Troutman, Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA; and B. D. Keim and A. W. Black

184
185
Comparison of Storm Surge Impacts Simulated with a Coupled WRF-ADCIRC Model for Varying Meteorological Forcing
Alexandra N. Ramos, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and C. L. Bruyère, E. N. Curchitser, and K. R. Fossell

186
Development of the NWS' Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge Model
Tatiana D Gonzalez, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. A. Taylor

Handout (302.4 kB)

187
Statistical Prediction of Waterspout Probability
Taylor Adams, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and A. Devanas


Poster Session 20
Convection
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
188
Lightning Correlation with Environmental Variables Using the TRMM LIS
Montana Etten-Bohm, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

Handout (3.7 MB)

189
HAMSR Observations during CPEX
Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. Schreier and S. T. Brown

190
CPEX 2017: Utilizing NASA’s Airborne Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) Lidar and Dropsondes for Convective Process Studies
G. D. Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and M. Garstang, S. Greco, Z. Pu, S. S. Chen, and E. Zipser

192
Joint Analysis of APR-2 Precipitation Vertical Structure and DAWN Vertical Wind Profiles during CPEX
F. Joseph Turk, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. Hristova-Veleva, S. Tanelli, and S. L. Durden

193
Structure of an Atmospheric River over the Gulf of Mexico Observed during the NASA CPEX Campaign
Jose Martinez-Claros, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM

196
Machine Tuning of Entrainment Rates in an Extended EDMF Scheme: Toward a Unified Parameterization of Shallow and Deep Convection
Yair Cohen, California Institue of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Lan, C. M. Kaul, Z. Tan, K. G. Pressel, T. Schneider, and J. Teixeira

197
Role of the Orography in Observed Convective Precipitating Systems in the Northern Andes Ranges of Colombia
Sebastian Gomez, Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and M. D. Zuluaga and C. D. Hoyos

198
Sensitivity of Cloud Radiative Effects to Water Vapor Perturbations in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium
Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and T. H. Abbott and T. W. Cronin

200
Characterizing the Degree of Convective Clustering Using Radar Reflectivity and Its Application to Evaluating Model Simulations
Daehyun Kim, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and W. Y. Cheng, A. K. Rowe, Y. Moon, and S. Park


Poster Session 21
Hazard Communication
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 201 has been moved. New paper number 16B.2A.

202
An Experimental Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI)
Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

203
The Hurricane Risk Calculator: Translating Potential Wind Impacts for Coastal and Inland Residents
Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Arthur, C. Krause, J. Done, M. Ge, C. M. Rozoff, and B. Brown
Manuscript (926.2 kB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

204
Preserving, Archiving, and Displaying Airborne Datasets at NOAA / AOML’s Hurricane Research Division
Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. Holbach, B. W. Klotz, F. Marks, and S. Murillo

205
Asymmetry Metrics to Describe the Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Related Hazards
Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

206
When it Comes to Hurricane Landfall, are Hurricanes Smarter than a Fifth Grader
H. Michael Mogil, How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL; and M. Bolton

207
Revisiting Global Tropical Cyclone Statistics in Light of an Active 2017 Season in the Atlantic Basin
Matthew Bolton, How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL; and H. M. Mogil


Poster Session 22
Intraseasonal Variability and MJO
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
208
The Gill-Matsuno: Is It a Good Model for the MJO?
Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. Kacimi

209
Modulation of Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Genesis In The Western North Pacific By Wave Activities
Jianyun Gao, Fujian Climate Center, Fuzhou, China; and K. K. W. Cheung

210
Interplay between Convection and Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observed during DYNAMO Filed Experiment: A Case Study
Denny P. Alappattu, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang, N. Guy, and D. P. Jorgensen

211
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction in the Navy Earth System Model
Matthew Adam Janiga, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. J. Schreck III, J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, W. A. Komaromi, and C. Reynolds

Poster 212 has been moved. New paper number is 12A.5A.

Poster 213 has been moved. New paper number 12A.4A.

214
Analysis of the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation in the Indian Ocean Using Surface Winds from Composite Satellite Data
Heather Roman-Stork, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa

215
217
Sub-seasonal Predictability of Large-scale Atmospheric Parameters in the Tropical Atlantic Basin
Kurt Hansen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman and S. J. Majumdar

218
A Coherent Image of Teleconnections Across the Globe Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and S. C. van den Heever

219
Similarities and Differences in BSISO over the Indian Ocean and the West Pacific Ocean
Bohar Singh, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. L. Kinter III

220
Factors Influencing the Propagation of Kelvin Waves and the MJO across the Maritime Continent
Cody W Yeary, NCICS, NCSU, Asheville, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer and C. J. Schreck III

221
QBO/Solar Modulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation: A Composite Analysis
Malori Redman, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and L. L. Hood and T. J. Galarneau Jr.


Poster Session 23
TC Outflow, Structure, and Intensity Change: Results from the TCI Field Campaign
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
225
Environmental Factors and Internal Processes Contributing to Interrupted Rapid Decay of Hurricane Joaquin
Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and A. C. Jorgensen, R. L. Elsberry, C. Velden, M. S. Jordan, and R. Creasey

Poster 226 has been moved. New paper number 12B.5A

227
Observed Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure of Four Tropical Cyclones from the ONR TCI Field Experiment
Robert Creasey, NPS, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Hendricks, R. L. Elsberry, and M. S. Jordan

228

Poster Session 24
TC Rainbands & Precip
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
229
Comparative Analysis of TC Rainstorm Induced by Cold Air Intrusion of Two TC Cases
Shunan Yang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

232
A New Technique for Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
Fumin Ren Sr., Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), Beijing, China

Handout (1.1 MB)

233
Thermodynamic and Kinematic Properties of Isolated Convective Cells in the Rainband Region of Atlantic Hurricanes
Wesley D. Terwey, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and P. Barlow and S. Sangster

Handout (900.4 kB)

235
Evaluation of GFDL fvGFS Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for 2017 US-Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Matthew J. Morin, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

237
Microphysical Characteristics of Ice Hydrometeors in Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (2017).
Ya-Chien Feng, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

240
Drivers of Extreme Rainfall during the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Matthew (2016)
Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell


Poster Session 25
TC Remote Sensing
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Poster 243 has been moved. New paper number is 13B.2A.

244
GOES-16: Much Improved "Glasses" to View the Tropics
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. B. Schumacher, J. A. Knaff, M. J. Folmer, T. Olander, D. T. Lindsey, S. D. Miller, S. M. Griffin, J. P. Dunion, M. DeMaria, M. J. Brennan, and J. L. Beven

246
A Reanalysis of Australian Region Tropical Cyclones in the Geostationary Satellite Era. Part 1: Intensity, Using the Objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander, A. Burton, J. Courtney, E. A. Ritchie, C. Stark, and S. J. Tyo

247
The UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) - Current Status and Future Upgrades
Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden

Handout (4.9 MB)

248
Application of a Deep Learning Neural Network to Remotely-Sensed TC Intensity
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and J. H. Cossuth and C. S. Velden

249
NASA TROPICS Earth Venture Mission: Payload Characteristics and Data Products
R. Vincent Leslie, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Blackwell, S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, L. Gumley, T. Greenwald, D. Herndon, and G. Chirokova

Handout (7.7 MB)

250
Expected Sampling of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones By TROPICS Constellation Satellites.
Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and W. J. Blackwell and R. Bennartz

Handout (12.6 MB)

251
Hurricane Intensity and Wind Structure Estimation: from AMSU to TROPICS
Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, S. Longmore, and J. F. Dostalek

Poster 252 has been moved. New paper number is 11D.6A.

254
On the Correlation between Total Condensate and Diabatic Heating in Tropical Cyclones and Applications for Diagnosing Intensity
David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and Y. Miyamoto, S. N. Wu, and B. J. Soden

256
A Reanalysis of Australian Region Tropical Cyclones in the Geostationary Satellite Era. Part 2: Wind Radii Parameters Using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique (DAV-T)
Clair Stark, Univ. of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and E. A. Ritchie, S. J. Tyo, A. Burton, J. Courtney, C. S. Velden, and T. Olander


Poster Session 26
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification
Location: Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
259
fvGFS Forecasts of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Matthew (2016)
Andrew Hazelton, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. Harris and S. J. Lin

260
The Influences of the Urban Heat Island Effect and Brown Ocean Effect on Land Falling Tropical Cyclones and Provincial Atmospheric Conditions
Adam Jozef Zebzda, High School Student, Winston Salem, NC; and T. Holt, D. D. Flagg, C. C. Hennon, and A. Knudsen
Manuscript (297.5 kB)

261
Water Budget and Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific
Si Gao, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Zhai, B. Chen, and T. Li

Handout (1.3 MB)

262
The Seasonality of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the North Atlantic and Western Pacific Regions
Daniel Gilford, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. Solomon, K. Emanuel, and D. Rothenberg

Handout (2.3 MB)

263
Investigation of the Sea Surface Fluxes for TC Intensification
Chian-Yi Liu, National Central Univ., Taoyuan, Taiwan

265
The Impacts of the Basic Potential Vorticity Profiles on the Stability of Shallow-Water Vortices
Wei Zhong, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Liu

Handout (550.3 kB)

268
Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction in Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Zongyao Yang, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

Handout (1.1 MB)

269
The Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate Based on Ensemble Method
Chih-Chi HU, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

270
Intensification of Strongly Tilted Tropical Vortices Through Asymmetric Diabatic Heating
Tom Doerffel, Free Univ. Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and A. Papke, R. Klein, and P. K. Smolarkiewicz

Poster 272 has been moved. New paper number is 10B.2A.

273
Intense Surface and Flight-Level Wind Speeds in Hurricanes: When Conventional Rules Break Down
Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan, H. M. Holbach, M. J. Brennan, E. W. Uhlhorn, and R. G. Henning

274
Normalized Convective Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
Michael S. Fischer, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and K. L. Corbosiero

275
Modeling of the Influence of Saharan Dust and Other Aerosols on Hurricane Earl (2010) Using NASA Unified WRF (NUWRF)
Jainn J. Shi, NASA/GSFC, Morgan State Univ./GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun and Z. Tao

276
277
The Role of Boundary Layer Friction on Tropical Cyclogenesis and Subsequent Intensification
Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and R. K. Smith

Poster 278 has been moved. New paper number 12B.4A.

280
Revisiting Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Theory from an Unbalanced Flow Perspective.
T. J. Shepherd, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. J. E. Walsh

281
The Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Gradients on the Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones
B. Matthew Holliday, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and K. M. Wood

282
Dynamical Interactions in a Field of Persistent Tropicalcyclones: Eddy Angular Momentum and Vorticity Exchanges
John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams

283
The Phenomenal Intensification of Hurricane Maria (2017)
Kathy-Ann Caesar, Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Bridgetown, Barbados; and A. Sealy, R. Chewitt, M. Mayers-Als, C. Brathwaite, and S. Whitehall

284
285
An Analysis of the Ocean Coupling Potential Intensity in North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones
Russell Henderson Glazer, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. M. Ali

286
Analysis of Moist Potential Vorticity of Two Similar Super Typhoons Affecting South China
Duan Peng, Zhaoqing Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Province, Zhaoqing, China

Handout (4.1 MB)

288
A Forced, Balanced Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Christopher J. Slocum, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert

289
Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models
Yumin Moon, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, S. J. Camargo, A. A. Wing, A. H. Sobel, M. G. Bosilovich, H. Murakami, K. A. Reed, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao

290

5:30 PM-6:45 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018


Community Forum on Airborne Hurricane Datasets
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD; Heather Holbach, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Florida State Univ., and the Northern Gulf Institute; Jason Dunion, AOML
Panelists: Scott Braun, NASA/GSFC; Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ.; Jason Sippel, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC; Chris Davis, NCAR; Deborah K. Smith, Univ. of Alabama; Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center; Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD; Holger Voemel, NCAR

7:15 PM-9:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2018

Recording files available
Plenary Session
Bill Gray Symposium - Evening Edition
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.
7:15 PM
PL.1
Diurnal Circulation Adjustment and Organized Deep Convection
James H. Ruppert Jr., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and C. Hohenegger
7:30 PM
Remarks about Bill Gray by Sarah Gray

7:45 PM
PL.3
On Maximum Potential Intensification Rate (MPIR) of a Tropical Cyclone: An Observational Perspective
Yuqing Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, Beijng, China; and J. Xu
8:00 PM
PL.4
The Energy Tube
Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Friday, 20 April 2018

7:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Registration
Location: Masters Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

8:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 20 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 15A
Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Chidong Zhang, PMEL; Sue Chen, NRL
8:00 AM
15A.1
Overview of the YMC-Sumatra 2017
Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and S. Yokoi, S. Mori, T. Nasuno, U. Haryoko, F. Syamsudin, and K. Richards
8:15 AM
15A.2
Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Around Western Coast of Sumatra Island Observed during Pre-YMC and YMC-Sumatra2017 Field Campaigns
Satoru Yokoi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and S. Mori, M. Katsumata, B. Geng, K. Yasunaga, F. Syamsudin, N. Nurhayati, and K. Yoneyama
8:45 AM
15A.4
Diurnal, Synoptic, and Intraseasonal Rain Statistics from Ground and Space-Borne Radar over the Maritime Continent
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. Funk, R. Adriyanto, I. H. Umam, A. Ali, and N. Nurhayati
9:00 AM
15A.5
Drastic Thickening of the Barrier Layer Off the Western Coast of Sumatra Due to the Madden Julian Oscillation Passage during the Pre-Years of the Maritime Continent Campaign
Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Ando, and T. Hasegawa
9:15 AM
15A.6
Multiscale Interactions between the MJO, Equatorial Waves, and the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent: Part I
Lakemariam Yohannes Worku, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and A. Mekonnen and C. J. Schreck III
9:30 AM
15A.7
MJO Propagation Characteristics over the Maritime Continent
Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Dias and G. N. Kiladis
9:45 AM
15A.8
Tropical Intraseasonal Weather Analysis in December 2016
Shih-Pei Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and W. T. Chen and C. H. Sui
10:00 AM
15A.9
Numerical Simulations of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation during Pre-YMC Field Campaign
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and R. Okugawa

10:15 AM
15A.10A
Recording files available
Session 15B
TC Rainbands & Precip II
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: C.-C. Wu, National Taiwan Univ.; Daniel Stern, UCAR / NRL
8:15 AM
15B.2
The Boundary Layer Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Rainbands
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
8:45 AM
15B.4
9:00 AM
Paper 15B.5 has been moved. New poster number is 229A.

9:30 AM
15B.7
10:00 AM
15B.9
How Well Does the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction System Forecast West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Precipitation?
Simon C. Peatman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK; and N. P. Klingaman and K. Hodges
10:15 AM
15B.10
Analysis of the Rainfall Mechanisms in Two Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Difei Deng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and E. A. Ritchie
Recording files available
Session 15C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VII: Observations
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC; Jonathan Zawislak, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:00 AM
15C.2
8:15 AM
15C.3
The Formation and Evolution of Convective Bursts in Hurricanes: An Observational Study
Stephen R. Guimond, UMBC/NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield, R. F. Rogers, P. Reasor, and S. T. Brown
8:30 AM
15C.4
8:45 AM
15C.5
Hyperbolicity of Bulk Air-Sea Enthalpy Fluxes in Major Hurricanes
Benjamin Jaimes de la Cruz, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Rudzin and L. K. Shay
9:00 AM
15C.6
9:15 AM
15C.7
A New Asymmetry Parameter for Tropical Cyclones
Kelvin Sai-cheong Ng, The Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and M. H. Lee and Y. Zong
9:30 AM
15C.8
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
Manil Maskey, MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil, R. Ramachandran, and J. Miller
9:45 AM
15C.9
New Developments in Crowd Sourcing Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates
Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and C. Ihnat, R. C. Loder, K. R. Knapp, and C. J. Schreck III
10:00 AM
15C.10
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change from a Lightning Perspective
Stephanie N. Stevenson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero
Recording files available
Session 15D
Air-Sea Interaction I
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD; Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
8:00 AM
15D.1
8:15 AM
15D.2
Extension of the Prognostic Model of Sea Surface Temperature to Rain-Induced Cool and Freshwater Lenses
Hugo Bellenger, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka-city, Japan; and K. Drushka, W. E. Asher, G. Reverdin, M. Katsumata, and M. Watanabe

8:30 AM
15D.3
Parameterizing Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Induced by Tropical Cyclones
XIN LIU, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. L. Zhang
9:00 AM
15D.5
Boundary Layer Structure and Surface Flux Estimates in Tropical Cyclones
David H. Richter, Univ. of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; and D. P. Stern and G. H. Bryan
9:15 AM
15D.6
Tropical Cyclone Interaction with the Ocean: The Role of High Frequency Coupled Processes
Enrico Scoccimarro, CMCC, Bologna, Italy; and P. Fogli, A. Bellucci, S. Gualdi, K. A. Reed, S. Masina, and A. Navarra
9:30 AM
15D.7
Observed Ocean Heat Content Variations From In-Situ and Satellite Measurements During The 2017 Hurricane Season
Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. K. Brewster, E. Maturi, E. Leuliette, B. Jaimes, J. Zhang, D. Donahue, J. Rudzin, and L. Hiron
9:45 AM
15D.8
Harmonic Analysis of SFMR Off-Nadir Brightness Temperature Measurements in Tropical Cyclones
Heather M. Holbach, Florida State Univ., Northern Gulf Institute, and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and B. W. Klotz
10:00 AM
15D.9A
Barrier Layer Development within Tropical Cyclones Based on Argo Float Network Observations
John Daniel Steffen, Florida State Univ./Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Bourassa
10:15 AM
15D.10
Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction : Cases of Meranti (2016), Patricia (2015), and Haiyan (2013)
I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Huang, M. M. Lu, J. Boucharel, F. F. Jin, and M. Lien

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Champions Foyer (Sawgrass Marriott)

11:00 AM-1:30 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018

Recording files available
Session 16A
Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent and the PISTON Field Campaign II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Kunio Yoneyama, JAMSTEC; Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ.
11:15 AM
16A.2
Evaluation of Model Performance over the Maritime Continent
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. P. Barton, S. Chen, M. K. Flatau, J. Ridout, M. A. Janiga, T. Jensen, E. J. Metzger, J. G. Richman, and D. B. Baranowski
11:30 AM
16A.3
The PISTON and CAMP2Ex field programs: Coupled Meteorology, Oceanography and Compositional Systems Field Research on the Boreal Summertime Southwest Monsoon
Daniel Eleuterio, ONR, Arlington, VA; and H. Maring, S. Chen, E. D. Maloney, J. N. Moum, R. Holz, G. Narisma, J. S. Reid, S. A. Rutledge, S. C. van den Heever, and C. Villanoy
12:00 PM
16A.5
Atmospheric Ocean Coupled Numerical Simulations of the 2016 Summer BSISO Event over the Maritime Continent
Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, C. Y. Lee, J. Pullen, and J. Nie

12:15 PM
16A.6
Convective Environments Across the Maritime Continent During the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever, E. M. Riley Dellaripa, and S. M. Saleeby
12:30 PM
16A.7
The Importance of Topography to the Luzon Diurnal Cycle During a BSISO Event
Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney, S. M. Saleeby, and B. A. Toms
12:45 PM
16A.8
The Role of MC River Discharge on the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Pullen, T. G. Jensen, M. K. Flatau, C. A. Reynolds, and J. M. Schmidt
1:00 PM
16A.9
Observation Study for Understanding the Relation of Lightning Activity and Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines
Hisayuki Kubota, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo, Japan; and Y. Takahashi, M. Sato, K. Yamashita, and J. I. Hamada
1:15 PM
16A.10
Characteristics of a Madden–Julian Oscillation Event in July 2017 with Numerical Simulations at a Cloud-Permitting Scale
Zhixiao Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu, C. Zhang, and A. W. Putra

Recording files available
Session 16B
Hazard Communication
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Cody Fritz, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
11:15 AM
16B.2A
NOAA's Recent Improvements in Storm Surge Forecasts and Warnings
Cody L. Fritz, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome
11:45 AM
16B.4
Understanding and Improving Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasts through Visualizations of Risk and Potential Impacts
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi, H. Lazrus, J. Boehnert, J. L. Demuth, and J. Gambill
12:00 PM
16B.5
The National Hurricane Center's Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Product
Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and J. L. Schwietert
12:15 PM
16B.6
Public Usage of the NHC Website During Recent U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. Onderlinde and M. Sardi
12:45 PM
16B.8
Providing Coherent Tornado Safety Instruction in Hurricane Situations
David Sharp, NOAA/National Weather Service, Melbourne, FL; and J. Smith, L. Rodio, W. Ulrich, and S. Spratt
1:15 PM
16B.10
Decisive Factors for Typhoon Risk Distribution in South Korea
Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. S. R. Park and M. M. Bell
Recording files available
Session 16C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VIII: Forecasts
Location: Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Robert F. Rogers, AOML; Erin Munsell, Laboratory for Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes
11:00 AM
16C.1
Adjoint Sensitivity Diagnosis of the Intensification of Hurricane Harvey
Zoe A Brooke Zibton, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and B. T. Hoover
11:15 AM
16C.2
11:45 AM
16C.4
Evaluating the Impact of Storm Structure on Statistical Rapid Intensification Model Skill
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, C. M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, K. Sellwood, and K. D. Musgrave
12:00 PM
16C.5
An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid (RIPA) for the western North Pacific
John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson and K. D. Musgrave
12:30 PM
16C.7
Development of Statistical-dynamical Tools for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction in the Southwest Indian Ocean
Marie-Dominique Leroux, Météo-France / LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and D. A. Mékiès, J. Meister, and A. L. Dorla
12:45 PM
16C.8
Applying Infrared Satellite Brightness Temperature to Understand Forecast Errors of Rapid Intensifying Hurricanes
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. H. Cossuth, R. L. Bankert, J. D. Doyle, and D. R. Ryglicki
1:00 PM
16C.9
Recent and Upcoming Operational Upgrades at ECMWF Relevant for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Mohamed Larbi Dahoui, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and F. Prates, L. Magnusson, M. Bonavita, and K. Mogensen
1:15 PM
16C.10
Recording files available
Session 16D
Air-Sea Interaction II
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Heather Holbach, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Florida State Univ., and the Northern Gulf Institute; I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan Univ.
11:00 AM
16D.1
Sea Spray Transport Intensifying Tropical Cyclones
Kosuke Ito, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and S. Kanda and N. Takagaki
11:15 AM
16D.2
A Comparison of Fresh and Saline Spume Droplet Production in High Wind Conditions
Brian K. Haus, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. Mehta, A. W. Smith, and D. Ortiz-Suslow
11:30 AM
16D.3
Impact of Three-Way Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on HWRF Forecasting for 2017 High-Impact Hurricanes
Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, A. Mehra, B. Thomas, D. Sheinin, H. S. Kim, B. Reichl, I. Ginis, J. Dong, Z. Zhang, A. Chawla, and V. Tallapragada
11:45 AM
16D.4
CYGNSS Estimates of Surface Heat Fluxes
Juan A. Crespo, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt
12:00 PM
16D.5
Ocean Observations During Hurricanes by Air-Deployable Profiling Floats
Steven R. Jayne, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and E. R. Sanabia and W. Swick
12:15 PM
16D.6
12:30 PM
16D.7
12:45 PM
16D.8
Ensemble Forecast of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) Using a High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects of TC-Ocean Interaction
Kuan-Jen Lin, National Central Univ., Jhongli City, Taiwan; and S. S. Chen and S. C. Yang
1:00 PM
16D.9
Modeling and Analysis of the Ocean Spray Effects on Hurricane Dynamics
Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov
1:15 PM
16D.10
The Effect of Air-Sea Interactions on Tropical Cyclone Predictions in the West Pacific
Nicholas P. Klingaman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK; and X. Feng and K. I. Hodges

1:30 PM-1:35 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Conference Concludes

1:45 PM-2:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2018


Student Award Ceremony
Location: Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)