1C.3 A Description of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance

Monday, 16 April 2018: 9:00 AM
Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and A. Simon, M. DeMaria, J. L. Franklin, R. J. Pasch, E. Rappaport, and D. A. Zelinsky

In 2015, the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) was developed at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as an "in-house" guidance product for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. The HCCA technique relies on the forecasts from separate input models for track and intensity, and assigns unequal weighting coefficients based on a set of training forecasts. Although the HCCA methodology is similar to that used by the Florida State SuperEnsemble (FSSE), the input model selection and real-time configuration of HCCA are specifically tailored to the operational needs and constraints of the NHC.

This paper will describe the methodology and input model selection used to develop HCCA, as well as verification results for the real-time operational HCCA forecasts. Since its implementation in 2015, the HCCA track and intensity forecasts have been among the best performing operational guidance at NHC. In 2015, HCCA was the most skillful guidance model for Atlantic track forecasts from 12 h to 48 h, and for intensity forecasts from 24 h to 72 h in the eastern North Pacific basin. In 2016, HCCA was the most skillful model for eastern North Pacific track forecasts from 12 h to 48 h. Verification results from the 2017 hurricane season will also be presented, as well as ideas for future improvements to the technique.

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