Tuesday, 17 April 2018: 8:15 AM
Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
2017 hurricane season has been highlighted by the unprecedented impacts of 2 major hurricanes, IRMA and MARIA, in the Lesser Antilles during september. Numerous challenges came up regarding the downscalling of official forecast from RSMC and for Multi-Hazard Early warning system applied in the French territories (St-Martin, Saint-Bartholomew, Guadeloupe archipelago and Martinique).
The non-hydrostatic high-res (2,5 km) NWP Arome, operationnal at Meteo-France over the Antilles since May 2016 has demonstrated its excellent ability to forecast realistic structures, tracks and intensities of these 2 major hurricanes. Arome numerical forecasts have been verified against available observations (radar, recon, RSMC analyses, …) with a focus on IRMA's landfall in Saint-Barth and Saint-Martin as well as MARIA's rapid intensification as the system approached Dominica (+70kt in 24 hours).
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