Hurricane Maximum Intensity Stability

A dynamical framework based on the fundamental scales of hurricanes is proposed to examine the stability of the maximum potential intensity (MPI) equilibrium. It will be shown that the MPI equilibrium is asymptotically stable under the wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) mechanism. A modified formula for the MPI that explicitly contains the tropospheric stratification will be presented, which captures subtle impacts of the large-scale stratification on hurricane intensity beyond the traditional MPI framework. Our results reveal opposing effects of the atmospheric stratification and sea surface temperature in hurricane intensity variation, and highlight the importance of the large-scale stratification in hurricane development and long-term intensity variability.