Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction

For the past few years, forecasters at CPC have utilized tropical cyclone forecasts made by the CFSv2 45-day runs for the Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook. This weekly product predicts tropical cyclone activity and precipitation in the tropics for weeks one and two. With the hopes of expanding the product out to weeks 3-4, the CFSv2 and Environment Canada (EC) models are being considered out to these longer time periods. This study will show the skill of each model for weeks 1-4 for both weekly storm count in each basin and possible storm tracks that help focus forecasters onto a particular region of development.

The CFSv2 45-day hindcast runs are available four times daily from 1999-2012 and real-time testing has been going on since December 2013. The 32-day EC model runs are available each Thursday containing a real-time hindcast from 1995-2004. Real-time testing began in 2017. Plans for the ECMWF model to be added to this group of models were delayed until 2018. ECMWF results will be included if available.