15A.10 CFSv2 Hindcast Skill and MJO Propagation across the Maritime Continent

Friday, 20 April 2018: 12:00 AM
Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC; and A. R. Aiyyer, M. A. Janiga, and C. W. Yeary

This study uses a novel method of Fourier filtering observations and CFSv2 forecasts to evaluate the model’s skill at predicting subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) tropical modes, including the MJO, Kelvin waves, and equatorial Rossby waves. In particular, we will evaluate how this skill changes for MJO events that either intensify or weaken as they traverse the Maritime Continent. S2S models are known to struggles with this type of variability amongst MJO events. We will explore variations in the population of equatorial waves between these events and the CFS’s skill with respect to each of these wave types.
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