2B.5 Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) that are Potential Candidates for Tropical Cyclogenesis

Monday, 16 April 2018: 11:30 AM
Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park,, PA; and J. L. Evans

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over Africa are at times, embedded into African Easterly Waves (AEW) as a couplet. Studies have shown that coupled systems are the main Tropical Cyclone (TC) precursor, however, a complete climatological relation between the AEW-MCS coupled systems is ongoing. It is hypothesized that the MCS embedded to an AEW provide the necessary environmental vorticity for TCs to form, not the AEW by itself. To examine this hypothesis, the first step is the development of a tracking and classification scheme for MCSs. The scheme uses a refine area overlapping technique, which detects and tracks an MCS through growth and mature phases to decay. It has four system classes based upon their level of organization. An illustrative case study will be presented. Statistical analysis reveals that this system attains maximum vertical growth in the initiation stage, typical of a Convective Cloud Cluster (CCC). It also experienced a splitting at the time of its maximum areal extent and highest symmetry, a few hours before termination. Having demonstrated the efficacy of this scheme, the next step is to extend it to compile a climatology of MCSs, examining each with respect to AEWs and subsequent TC development.
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