Wednesday, 18 April 2018: 11:15 AM
Masters ABCD (Sawgrass Marriott)
With the most up-to-date Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3), the GFDL model development team is pushing the global model resolution to 8.5 km for short-term weather forecasts. In this talk, we will focus on the tropical cyclone (TC) performance in the GFDL fvGFS. The impacts of using different analysis data, e.g. NCEP GFS analysis and ECMWF IFS dataset, as the initial conditions will be first examined. The updated GFDL cloud microphysics is being used and its impacts on TC forecasts will also be investigated. The results of C1152 (8.5 km) and C768 (13km) fvGFS will be compared to the forecasts from ECMWF IFS at 9-km resolution as well as to the operational GFS forecasts for several TCs in 2015-2017. The fvGFS shows a significant improvement of TC intensity when compared to current operational models. Other forecast skills, like TC track and genesis predictions, will also be discussed in this talk.
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