34 Years of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts

Dr. Bill Gray started issuing operational Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts at Colorado State University in 1984. These initial forecasts used as predictors El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Caribbean basin sea level pressures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation. Since that time, seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University have undergone considerable modifications to incorporate modern reanalysis datasets. Many other entities including government agencies, universities and private weather forecast companies currently issue seasonal hurricane forecasts. These groups use different techniques to arrive at their predictions including statistical models, statistical-dynamical models and dynamical models. A synopsis of currently utilized techniques will be discussed along with skill assessment of some of the longest-running seasonal forecasts.