Recent and Upcoming Operational Upgrades at ECMWF Relevant for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

The ECMWF forecasting system is upgraded 1-3 times a year with changes in the model, data assimilation, observation usage, ensemble configuration etc. In this presentation we will discuss recent and upcoming upgrades relevant for tropical cyclone forecasts. With increased realism in statistics from the ensemble data assimilation, more weight were given to observations. However, as the observations have large representativeness errors close to the cyclone, the increased usage occasionally caused problems in the data assimilation. Recent upgrades in the data assimilation has addressed this issue. Among upcoming changes are the introduction of the ocean-atmosphere coupling for the HRES forecast (the ensemble is already coupled). Using a coupled model will improve the intensity forecasts. However, many challenges remain for the intensity forecasts and need further diagnostics to understand and guide future changes in the forecasting system.