Session 16C Tropical Cyclone Intensity VIII: Forecasts

Friday, 20 April 2018: 11:00 AM-1:30 PM
Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs:
Robert F. Rogers, AOML, Miami, FL and Erin Munsell, Laboratory for Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Papers:
11:00 AM
16C.1
Adjoint Sensitivity Diagnosis of the Intensification of Hurricane Harvey
Zoe A. Brooke Zibton, Univ. of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and B. T. Hoover
Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

11:15 AM
16C.2
Evaluation of Machine-Learning Based Rapid Intensification Forecast Performance During the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Alexandria D. Grimes, Mississippi State Univ., Starkville, MS; and A. E. Mercer and K. M. Wood
Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (442.6 kB)

11:30 AM
16C.3
Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS): A New Method for Forecasting RI Probability
Matthew Onderlinde, NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
16C.4
Evaluating the Impact of Storm Structure on Statistical Rapid Intensification Model Skill
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, C. M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, K. Sellwood, and K. D. Musgrave
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
16C.5
An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid (RIPA) for the western North Pacific
John A. Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson and K. D. Musgrave
Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (293.5 kB)

12:15 PM
16C.6
Improved Weighted-Analog Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in Pre-Formation and Ending Stages
HSIAO-CHUNG TSAI, Tamkang Univ., New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM
16C.7
Development of Statistical-dynamical Tools for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction in the Southwest Indian Ocean
Marie-Dominique Leroux, Météo-France / LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and D. A. Mékiès, J. Meister, and A. L. Dorla
Audio File
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

12:45 PM
16C.8
Applying Infrared Satellite Brightness Temperature to Understand Forecast Errors of Rapid Intensifying Hurricanes
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. H. Cossuth, R. L. Bankert, J. D. Doyle, and D. R. Ryglicki
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM
16C.9
Recent and Upcoming Operational Upgrades at ECMWF Relevant for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Mohamed Larbi Dahoui, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and F. Prates, L. Magnusson, M. Bonavita, and K. Mogensen
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

1:15 PM
16C.10
The Impacts of WRF Model Tendency Errors on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast
Xiaohao Qin, IAP, Beijing, China; and W. Duan and H. Xu
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

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