33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 16-20 April 2018, Ponte Vedra, FL Applying Infrared Satellite Brightness Temperature to Understanding Forecast Errors of Rapid Intensifying Hurricanes
Y. Jin, J. Cossuth*, R. Bankert, J. D. Doyle, and D. Ryglicki
Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA
*Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC
Abstract
Great progress has been made in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction models for both track and intensity in recent years. However, it remains a daunting task for the models to forecast TC rapid intensification (RI). One contributing factor is that only limited conventional observations are available for TC inner core regions to evaluate model capability of representing cloud and precipitation processes. Satellite brightness temperature provides a possible alternative for model evaluation. Forward radiative models permit a direct comparison of predicted and observed radiance. In this work, synthetic infrared brightness temperatures (Tb) are computed using the Community Radiative Transfer Model for output from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction Model – Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC®[1]). Systematic evaluation is performed for inner-core structure evolution of TCs, especially those that underwent RI, with a focus on impact of cloud microphysics schemes. Statistical and spatial distribution of the synthetic Tb is verified against the satellite observed Tb. Strengths and weaknesses of various microphysics schemes for TC RI forecasts are discussed based on the model verification in the radiance space.
[1] COAMPS-TC is the registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory.
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