Analysis of Hurricane Noel (2007) Simulated by Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are the costliest and deadliest of all storms. However, there is not much analysis on Extratropical Transitioning Cyclones (ET). Even less analysis is on the post-transition characteristics of the ETs. We definitely need to understand why some ETs strengthen post-transition. These are storms that go against the normal track flow because we should observe dissipation of the storm as it moves over cooler waters, but for some storms, a temperature inversion is prevalent. This will allow heat to descend down into the storm, increasing the potential for cyclogenesis. The variable jet stream may be the culprit as the average world temperature rises. The spatial and temporal distribution will be examined as well as the intensity and frequency specifically for post-transitioning ETs. Hurricane Noel (2007) is a great storm to examine since the track started near the Bahamas but ended up very abnormal to TCs, reaching the southern tip of Greenland post-transition. It is hypothesized that these storms will keep rising to the north and east of the Atlantic Ocean if we keep rising our global temperatures.