Development of the NWS' Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge Model

The National Weather Service's (NWS) Meteorological Development Lab (MDL), in furtherance of its mission to help protect life and property, developed the Probabilistic storm Surge (P-Surge) model between 2003 and 2008 to provide storm surge inundation guidance for tropical cyclones which takes into account the uncertainty in the forecast. P-Surge utilizes a parametric wind model which uses the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) official forecast along with historic errors in its track, size, and intensity. This allows P-Surge to be consistent with NHC’s message and utilize the best available parametric information as NHC’s official forecast has historically outperformed other guidance.

MDL overhauled the system in 2014 by introducing gridded tide predictions and updating the computational grids to provide more accurate overland inundation guidance. Also, additional products were created with more time steps as well as above ground level products to provide users with more useful guidance. MDL’s latest improvements in 2017 included extending the forecast hours from 78 to 102 hours, upgrading the south Florida basin, and providing better support for NHC’s operational needs. This poster will describe the history of P-Surge, its latest enhancements and future plans.