Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP):Addressing the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017

Determining a need to improve NOAA’s weather research, Congress passed the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 including Sect. 104. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, instructing NOAA to maintain a project to improve hurricane forecasting with the goal of developing and extending accurate hurricane forecasts and warnings in order to reduce loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy, with a focus on

1. improving the prediction of rapid intensification and track of hurricanes;
2. improving the forecast and communication of surges from hurricanes; and
3. incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products.

In response to this charge, the HFIP plan was updated outlining the research and development needed to continue improving hurricane forecast guidance, enhance probabilistic hazard products, and design a more effective tropical cyclone product suite to better communicate risk to the public and emergency management community. Under the updated plan HFIP will continue addressing the original goals of reducing track and intensity forecast errors by 20% within 5 years and 50% within 10 years and to extend forecasts out to 7 days, particularly with focus on rapid intensification guidance. In addition, the updated plan extends HFIP’s purview to improving guidance on predicting storm structure and all hurricane hazards (surge, rain, associated severe weather, gusts as well as sustained winds) at actionable lead times for emergency managers (e.g., 72 hours). Improved hazard guidance will derive from dynamical model ensembles enabling probabilistic hazard products and improved track, intensity change and structure (radii to maximum and 35-knot winds) predictions before formation and throughout the storm’s life cycle. Using social science research, HFIP will design a more effective tropical cyclone product suite to better communicate risk and transition all current tropical hazards products. We will present an outline of the updated HFIP plan, goals and priorities