Validation of Storm Surge and Wind for High-Intensity Hurricanes during the 2017 Season

Multiple major, high-intensity tropical cyclones made landfall during the 2017 hurricane season, producing massive destruction in coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico, the southeast US, the Bahamas and the Caribbean Sea.

In order to assess the impact of these storms, forecast and hindcast simulations were run using the US National Weather Service SLOSH storm surge prediction model during Hurricanes Harvey (al092107), Irma (al112017), Maria (al152017) and Nate (al162017).

Extensive validations were conducted by comparing observed measurements of water levels and winds against model results to evaluate the performance of the model.

Analyses of the results and derived statistical metrics are used to determine which enhancements are most needed to achieve more accurate numerical simulations of storm surge and winds.