Real Time Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Statistical Models Enhanced with Satellite Passive Microwave Predictors

As part of a Joint Hurricane Testbed project real-time demonstration, statistical models developed for probabilistic prediction of rapid intensification (RI) in tropical cyclones (TCs) are tested using satellite passive microwave predictors in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. The microwave data has irregular time gaps as well as latency, and therefore a real-time test of the data’s impact was conducted this past hurricane season. The real-time analysis can be found at: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mw-ri-prob/. Four different microwave sensors were used in this real-time demonstration:

• Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F15 satellite
• Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/S) from the DMSP F16, F17, and F18 satellites
• Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2)
• Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI)

The microwave data were input to three statistical RI prediction models, and the probabilities of TC RI are compared to the probabilities from operational versions of the same models (without microwave predictors) to determine skillfulness. Seasonal results will be presented at the conference and discussed.