Predictability of the MJO at Convective Initiation

This study uses a high-resolution (4km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensemble over the Indian ocean to assess the predictability of convective initiation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Kerns and Chen (2016) large-scale precipitation tracking (LPT) method was used to define the MJO events for this study. A small ensemble was created by perturbing each ensemble member using stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT). Starting from initiation, each ensemble member is run for 14 days and the LPT method is used to track the development, or lack thereof, of the associated MJO event. Metrics such as the noise-to-signal ratio and RMSE are used to quantify predictability and prediction skill. Initial results from one MJO event will be presented, but this method will be applied to several MJO cases in future work.