Impact of NOAA P-3 Tail Doppler Radar Observations on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts Using a Regional OSSE Framework

During NOAA/AOML’s annual Hurricane Field Program (HFP), NOAA aircraft collect observations to improve the understanding and prediction of hurricanes. NOAA P-3 Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data has proven crucial in capturing the kinematic field of hurricanes that would otherwise be largely unobserved. As such, TDR mission experiments include a variety of flight patterns and sampling strategies that aim to maximize the use of this instrument. Evaluating the potential impact of TDR observations using various flight patterns helps to inform real-time decisions during the HFP. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) provide a cost-effective way of quantifying the potential impact of observing systems such as reconnaissance aircraft and their suite of instruments. AOML’s Hurricane Research Division has developed a system for performing regional hurricane OSSEs to assess these impacts on hurricane track and intensity forecasts and analyses. Aircraft instrument and flight level retrievals were simulated from a regional WRF-ARW Nature Run (Nolan et al., 2013) spanning 13 days, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclone. This study focuses on investigating the impact of TDR observations in order to determine the optimal flight pattern.