Within the project, Meteo-France in Reunion Island has developed an original method to generate ensemble scenarios around RSMC’s official track forecast. The method allows modulating both tracks and intensity of the cyclone. A distinct probability is attributed to each scenario.
Given this ensemble of meteorological forecast, wind and pressure fields are generated through meso-scale modeling (Meso-NH model) for each individual scenario using a bogusing method. This high resolution ensemble of wind field can finally be used for (1) generating probabilistic products such as chance of exceeding different wind threshold (2) forcing a wave or/and storm surge model and produce probabilistic forecast of oceanic and coastal conditions.
The proposed presentation will present the ensemble generation method and provide some validation results. The tool will be illustrated through historical events.
This work is supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR – 14 – CE03 – 0013). More details on the project are available at http://spicy.brgm.fr.