Potentials in Improving Predictability of Multiscale Tropical Weather Systems Evaluated Through Ensemble Assimilation of Simulated Satellite-based Observations

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is featuring the highest number of Atlantic-basin major hurricanes since 2005. A preliminary estimated total of over $188 billion in damages has been caused by the consecutive hurricanes in this season, and nearly all of which was due to three of the major hurricanes— Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Accurate forecasts of the future path and intensity of the major hurricanes are valuable to the public and emergency managers in protecting lives and property. The current study shows the great potential for further improving these three major hurricanes’ analysis and prediction through (1) advanced ensemble assimilation of unprecedented high-spatiotemporal, all-sky infrared radiances from the newly-launched, next-generation geostationary weather satellite GOES-16 (first of the GOES-R series), and (2) the experimental next-generation global prediction system (NGGPS) under development at NOAA that has embedded a convection-permitting 3-km nested domain over the hurricanes with enhanced inner-core initialization ingesting the GOES-16 all-sky radiances. For Hurricane Harvey, the global-nested NGGPS model not only improves over the current-generation operational models’ track prediction but also provides accurate forecasts of the storm’s structure, its rapid intensification to a major hurricane, and total rainfall along the Gulf Coast region. This highlights the potential and need for improving hurricane prediction through the nation’s further investments in advanced observing systems such as those from weather satellites, comprehensive data assimilation methodology that can more effectively ingest existing and future observations, higher-resolution weather prediction models with more accurate numerics and physics, and high-performance computing facilities that can perform advanced analysis and forecasting in a timely manner. Ongoing experiments seek to extend the success of the Harvey analysis and prediction with FV3 and GOES-16 to other hurricanes during the busy 2017 Atlantic season. Also tested is the assimilation of the all-sky microwave satellite radiance that can better probe clouds and precipitation which is likely to further complement the analysis from assimilation of the all-sky infrared radiance from GOES-16.