Recently, two series of simulation for Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Typhoon Lionrock (2016) were conducted. Lionrock experiments were initialized by using 12 hourly JMA operational global analysis from 1200 UTC 22 August to 0000 UTC 26 August. The results show that GSM, DFSM and NICAM could simulate recurvature of Lionrock towards the Japanese Islands and the Northwest China. MSSG, however, tended to simulate the track further northeastward. GSM, DFSM and NICAM could simulate rapid intensification of the typhoon but the simulated typhoon tended to intensify excessively.
The 7-km simulations were compared with operational medium-range forecasts taken from TIGGE to investigate the cause of differences in simulated tracks. The results suggest that the interaction between Lionrock and the upper trough in the mid-latitude is crucial for successfully simulating the change of the moving direction of Lionrock towards the Japanese Islands and the Northwest China.
We will also present the result of Joaquin’s case.