Session 3C Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) III

Monday, 16 April 2018: 1:30 PM-3:30 PM
Champions ABC (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD
CoChair:
S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL

Papers:
1:30 PM
3C.1
The Impact of Stochastic Physics Based Hybrid GSI/EnKF Data Assimilation on Hurricane Track/Intensity Forecasts Using NCEP's Operational Hurricane Modeling System
Zhan Zhang, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Tong, A. Mehra, J. A. Sippel, B. Zhang, K. Wu, V. Tallapragada, and B. Liu
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
3C.2
Performance of the HWRF Analog Ensemble during the HFIP 2017 Real-Time Demonstration
William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and C. M. Rozoff, L. Delle Monache, and S. Alessandrini
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3C.3
Why Did “Spin Down” Still Occur during HWRF Intensity Prediction of Patricia (2015) Initialized By a More Realistic Analysis Produced By the Advanced Hybrid Data Assimilation System?
Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Lu
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3C.4
Improving Vortex Initialization and Hurricane Forecasting through 3dEnVar and 4dEnVar Hybrid Data Assimilation Methods
Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and V. Tallapragada and W. McCarty
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3C.5
Recent and Planned Upgrades to Operational HWRF Data Assimilation
Henry Winterbottom, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. A. Sippel, A. Mehra, B. Zhang, and Z. Zhang
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3C.6
Ocean Model Impact Study for Improvement of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasting
Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., P. G. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. J. Cione, J. Dong, P. J. Fitzpatrick, G. Goni, B. Jaimes, S. Jayne, B. Liu, E. Sanabia, L. K. Shay, B. Thomas, J. Zhang, L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3C.7
Limit on the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Accuracy
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and K. Keshavamurthy
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3C.8
New Methods for Incorporating Situation-specific Track Uncertainty into the Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Model
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria
Audio File
Recorded Presentation

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