Investigating Potential Changes in Tropical Cyclone Overland Precipitation in the U.S. Due to Future Climate Change

Recently, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) at high horizontal resolutions has been used to study the impact of future climate change on both global and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Overall, this work suggests a decrease in overall TC activity in a warming climate in most regions across the globe, but increases in the most intense TCs. The main focus of this work is to better understand climate controls and changes of TC-related precipitation due to landfalling storms in the North Atlantic. In particular, this work uses various configurations of CAM5, a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model, at horizontal grid spacing of approximately 28 km forced with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases for both present and future climates. The future warming scenarios include the Half A degree additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol that stabilize warming at 1.5°C or 2°C and the larger, worst case warming Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario. The impact of the magnitude of future warming on the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of landfalling TCs and their associated rainfall is investigated using ensemble simulations.