37 The Parametric RMS Wind Field Model as a Substitution for HWind Snapshots in the Absence of Data

Tuesday, 17 April 2018
Champions DEFGH (Sawgrass Marriott)
Chana D. Seitz, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

RMS HWind snapshots are objective wind field analyses of tropical or transitioning cyclones based on standardized wind observations from up to 40 platforms. HWind snapshots are generated in real-time and post-storm when data is available. The parametric RMS wind field model is based on a modified Willoughby profile and can be used post-storm, in real-time, or in combination with forecast information to estimate a tropical or transitioning cyclone’s wind field in the absence of data. Input parameters necessary for the RMS model (Willoughby profile parameters, storm motion, azimuth of max wind, minimum pressure, shape parameter, transitioning amount) are estimated from HWind snapshots and used to model wind fields for several storms ranging in size and intensity. The parametric RMS model’s ability to accurately re-create storms’ wind fields is examined by comparing the output to the HWind snapshots. Furthermore, the modeled wind fields’ sensitivity to each input parameter is tested. This will help determine appropriate range sizes for the estimation of the parameters in the absence of data (and HWind snapshots) since this is the time that a modeled wind field is most useful.
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