Predictive Services Program Update and Evolving Decision Support

Predictive Services was developed as more proactive decision support information was needed in anticipating significant fire activity and determining resource allocation needs. Having been in existence for over 20 years, Predictive Services still consists of three primary functions: fire weather, fire danger/fuels, and intelligence/resource status information, and units are located at the National Interagency Coordination Center and the Geographic Area Coordination Centers across the country. Flagship Predictive Services' products include the Incident Management Situation Report, 7-Day Significant Fire Potential forecast, National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook, and Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories.

Recent important events within Predictive Services has been the implementation of the Short-Term Plan in 2022 to mitigate effects of transitioning to the new version of the National Fire Danger Rating System, updating the Predictive Services Handbook, which hasn't been done since 2009, verification of significant fire potential forecasts, and proposing Integrated Fire Environment Decision Support Services with the National Weather Service to address long-standing systemic issues within the interagency fire environment monitoring and prediction system. The evolving fire environment and the increased need for reliable and accurate decision support for fire and emergency management, the public, and private enterprise has strained existing fire environment decision support services and revealed inadequacies, including in Predictive Services. Proposals have been made to national fire management, but it would require substantial investment and prioritization.