Session 12 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium

Program Chairs: Timothy J. Brown ; Nicholas J. Nauslar , Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, The University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center ; Brian Potter ; Kara Yedinak , USDA
Reviewers: Eduardo Santos ; Paul Stoy ; Joseph G. Alfieri

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Tuesday, 2 May 2023

Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:25 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 1
Case Studies
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Alan F. Srock
8:25 AM
Welcoming Remarks

8:30 AM
1.1
Opening Comments from an Operational Perspective (Invited Presentation)
Francisco Romero, National Interagency Fire Center, Boise, ID

8:45 AM
1.2
Roles of Synoptic Forcing on Observed Trends in California Wildfires
Stella Abosede Afolayan, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and A. Mekonnen and Y. L. Lin

9:00 AM
1.3
Comparing Lightning Detection Networks for Wildfire Ignition Attribution
Benjamin J. Hatchett, DRI, Reno, NV; and N. J. Nauslar and T. J. Brown

9:15 AM
1.4
Sundowners and Mountain Wave Activity: The 28-29 April, 2022 Event during the Sundowner Winds Experiment (SWEX)
Kiera L Malarkey, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and M. de Orla-Barile, L. M. Carvalho, G. J. Duine, and C. B. Clements

9:30 AM
1.5
Convective Density Current Circulations That Modulated Meso-γ Surface Winds Near the Yarnell Hill Fire
Michael L. Kaplan, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Prescott, AZ; North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. M. S. Karim, J. T. Wiles, C. N. James, PhD, Y. L. Lin, and J. G. Riley

9:45 AM
1.6
Observations of Fire Whirls during a Prescribed Fire
Masahiko Shinohara, National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Suina, S. Matsushima, and H. Saiki

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023


AM Coffee Break
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Foyer (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 2
Modeling Studies I
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Tara L. Jensen, NOAA
10:45 AM
2.1
A Preliminary Look at the Effects of Model Complexity on the Outcomes of Fire and Smoke Simulations
Anthony Bova, USDA, Seattle, WA; and W. Mell

11:00 AM
2.2
WindNinja Simulations in Canyons and Complex Terrain
Marc Buchs, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and C. B. Clements

11:15 AM
2.3
An Analysis of Vertical Plume Extent Forecasted with the WRFx System and WRF-SFIRE using MISR Plume Height Data
Kathleen Nicole Clough, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. Kochanski and A. Farguell

11:30 AM
2.4
Sensitivity of the WRF-SFIRE Model to Changes in Fuel Moisture Content
James Haley, CIRA, Lakewood, CO; and K. A. Hilburn, A. Farguell, J. Mandel, and A. Kochanski

11:45 AM
2.5
An Analysis of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions on Fire Propagation in Steep Canyons Using Idealized WRF-SFIRE Simulations
Justin Mirabilis Haw, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. K. Kochanski and A. Farguell

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023


Lunch Break
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 3
Studies Combining Field, Laboratory, and/or Modeling Work to Address Knowledge Gaps
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Rod Linn, LANL
1:30 PM
3.1
Developing an Hourly Fire Progression Database for Large California Wildfires: Application for Modeling Fire Spread Rate
Tianjia Liu, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. T. Randerson, Y. Chen, D. Morton, E. B. Wiggins, P. Smyth, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou

1:45 PM
3.2
Examining the Effects of Buildings on Fire Front Rate of Spread in an Incendiary Test Tunnel
Matthew Moody, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and R. Stoll and B. N. Bailey

2:00 PM
3.3
Characteristics and Short-Range Transport of Firebrands Generated by a Pile Fire
Alec Petersen, Univ. of California Irvine, Irvine, CA; and T. Banerjee

2:15 PM
3.4
Measurement and Modeling of Wind and Wind Gusts for Prescribed and Wildfires
Brian E. Potter, USDA; and K. Yedinak

2:30 PM
3.5
5G Drones: Real Time Data Assimilation to Transform Wildfire Predictability
Jon M. Reisner, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and A. J. Josephson, H. C. Godinez, J. E. Lee, M. K. Dubey, and C. Carrico

2:45 PM
3.6
Combining Handheld and Airborne Wildland-Urban Interface Field Measurements for AI Methods
David Ryglicki, MyRadar, Lakeland, FL; and G. Greenwood and S. Garimella

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023


PM Coffee Break
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 3 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )

14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium Posters
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Brian Potter
2
Simulating CUT to Length Forest Treatments Effects on FIRE Behavior over STEEP Slopes
Kyle Pittman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

4
Extensive Wildland Fire Weather Research of the Tragic June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire
Fred J. Schoeffler, Project 10 & 18 International, Pine, AZ; and J. A. Collura

6
The Effects of Fire-Atmosphere Coupling on Predicting Fire Front Behavior
Matthew Moody, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and B. N. Bailey, R. Stoll, and S. K. Krueger

8
Dead Fuel Moisture Climatology Dataset of California
Angel Farguell, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. Kochanski, J. Drucker, W. Jolly, J. Mandel, and J. D. Mirocha

12
A Climatology Study of Wildfire Activity in the United States with ERA5 Reanalysis Data
Hailey Poole,

Handout (1.4 MB)

14
The Next Generation Fire System: Delivering Timely and Accurate Satellite-Derived Fire Information
Chris Schmidt, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and M. J. Pavolonis

16
Leveraging a Physically-Based Dead Fuel Moisture Model to Inform Western United States Utility Wildfire Mitigation Operations
Xin Qu, Atmospheric Data Solutions, LLC, Jackson, WY; and S. B. Capps and J. Kalkhof

18
Spatial Metrics of Fire Geometry and Their Relationship to Fire Areal Growth
Kara Yedinak, USDA, Madison, WI; and B. E. Potter, A. Bova, S. Illson, and L. Pierce

20
Research Support for Crisis Strategy Prescribed Burns
Brian E. Potter, USDA, Seattle, WA; and J. Dubowy, A. M. Chiodi, A. Rowe, V. Cork, E. Alvarado, N. Larkin, S. O'Neill, and A. Bova

22
Changes in Summer-Nighttime Stability, Wind Speed and Fuel Moisture over the Western US
Andrew M. Chiodi, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. Potter and N. Larkin

24
A Semi-Simple Approach for Estimating Fire Season Length
Tom Rolinski, Southern California Edison, Irwindale, CA; Southern California Edison, Rosemead, CA

26
The Hot-Dry-Windy Index: R2O, the Cloud, and Ongoing Development
Joseph J. Charney, USDA, Lansing, MI; USDA, Lansing, MI; and A. F. Srock, B. E. Potter, and J. M. McDonald

28
Using ERA5-Land in RAWS QC and Estimation Process
Timothy J. Brown, ; and H. Reinbold and G. McCurdy

30
A 25-Year Climatology of Air Stagnation Events in North America
Michaela D. Ericksen, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, MN; and A. F. Srock

32
Characterizing Updraft and Plume Properties Spanning the FIREX-AQ and CalFiDE Field Campaigns
Edward J. Strobach, CIRES, Bel Air, MD; and A. W. Brewer, B. J. Carroll, S. Baidar, B. J. McCarty, and C. J. Senff

Handout (510.9 kB)

34
Decision-Making on the Fireline: Is Probabilistic Information Useful?
Mark R. Loeffelbein, NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

38
Beyond the Big-Leaf Model for NOAA’s Unified Air Quality Forecasting Capabilities
Patrick C. Campbell, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and P. Makar, B. Baker, Y. Tang, F. Yang, R. Montuoro, R. Saylor, W. T. Hung, and Z. Moon

40
An Observational Analysis of Red Flag Warning Criteria in Minnesota with Respect to Daily Wildfire Occurrences
Michael Griesinger, NWS, Chanhassen, MN

42
Improving Consistency of National Weather Service Fire Weather Products in the Plains and Midwest
Chris Foltz, NWS, Kansas City, MO; and K. Cook, R. Wolf, M. Bunkers, and C. Schultz

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 4
Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Applications to Fire I
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Christopher Rodell, PhD Candidate , University of British Columbia
4:30 PM
4.1
Machine Learning Historical and Forecasted Gridded Live Fuel Moisture Content
Wei Zhuang, Atmospheric Data Solutions, Irvine, CA

4:45 PM
4.2
Machine Learning Historical and Forecasted Gridded Grassland NDVI
Rui Liu, Atmospheric Data Solutions, LLC, Tustin, CA

5:00 PM
4.3
Deep-Learning Based Fusion of Satellite Data with Physics-Based Models for Initializing Wildfire Forecast
Assad Anshuman Oberai, Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA; and B. Shaddy, V. Calaza, A. Farguell, J. Haley, K. Hillburn, D. V. V. Mallia, A. K. Kochanski, and J. Mandel

5:15 PM
4.4
Statistical Forecasting of the Wildfire Season in Alaska and across Northern North America Using Machine Learning
Christine F Waigl, IARC, Fairbanks, AK; Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and E. Fischer, U. S. Bhatt, P. Bieniek, C. Borries-Strigle, J. Hostler, R. Lader, H. Strader, and E. Stevens

5:30 PM
4.5
Machine Learning for Fuel Moisture in Time and Space, Dead or Live
Jan Mandel, Univ. of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO; and J. Hirschi, A. Kochanski, A. Farguell Caus, J. Haley, D. V. V. Mallia, B. Shaddy, A. A. Oberai, and K. A. Hilburn

5:45 PM
4.6
Toward Prediction of Pyrocumulonimbus with Machine Learning
Chuyen T Nguyen, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Krell, J. Nachamkin, D. A. Peterson, E. J. Hyer, S. A. King, P. E. Tissot, K. J. Tory, and J. R. Campbell

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 May 2023


Game Night (Icebreaker Reception)
Location: Denmark Commons (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )
Chair: Kara Yedinak, USDA

Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 5
Decision Support Tool Development and Communication
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Aaron Pina, NASA Headquarters, Earth Science Division
8:30 AM
5.1
Developing a Scientific and Readily Usable Tool for Assessing Daily Wildfire Risk in Southern California
Jonathan E. O'Brien, USDA, Riverside, CA; and K. Allison

8:45 AM
5.2
Rapid Burn Severity Mapping for Post-Fire Flood and Landslide Risk Awareness
Danielle Losos, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and S. Batzli

9:00 AM
5.3
Prescribed Fire and Smoke Planner: Development of a Planning and Decision Support System for Prescribed Burning
Andrew M. Chiodi, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Larkin, J. Dubowy, and B. Potter

9:15 AM
5.4
Potential Utility of Atmospheric Evaporative Demand in Assessing Wildland Fire Potential
Andrew Jesus Andrade, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. J. McEvoy, T. J. Brown, and B. A. Parker

9:30 AM
5.5
On the Meteorological Conditions Influencing Prescribed Burn Windows Across the United States
Janine A. Baijnath-Rodino, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. Muniz, R. York, E. Foufoula-Georgiou, and T. Banerjee

9:45 AM
5.6
An Integrated Warning Team Approach to Fire Warnings
T. Todd Lindley, NOAA, Norman, OK; and M. Fox, R. Smith, A. B. Zwink, D. Speheger, R. Barnes, D. Daily, B. Smith, C. M. Gravelle, and P. E. Reiter
Manuscript (1015.8 kB)

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023


AM Coffee Break
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Foyer (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 6
Modeling Studies II
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Angel Farguell Caus
10:45 AM
6.1
A Versatile Physics-Based Rate of Spread Model for Backfires and Steep Terrain Conditions.
Aurélien Costes, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and A. K. Kochanski

11:00 AM
6.2
Linking Prescribed Fire Ignition Patterns to Plume Dynamics Using QUIC-Fire
Scott L. Goodrick, USDA, Athens, GA; and R. R. Linn

11:15 AM
6.3
Rethinking the Response of Fuels to Changes in Atmospheric Moisture
Brian E. Potter, USDA; and K. Yedinak, S. Glass, and S. Zelinka

11:30 AM
6.4
METplus: A Comprehensive Verification System for NWP Expanding into Fire Weather
Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and A. R. Siems-Anderson

11:45 AM
6.5
QUIC-Fire: Current Capabilities of a Fast-Running Tool for Prescribed Fire Applications
Rodman R. Linn, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and S. Goodrick, S. Brambilla, D. Robinson, M. Brown, J. O'Brien, and J. K. Hiers

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023


Lunch Break
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023


Session
14Fire Luncheon
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Timothy J. Brown
12:15 PM
L1.1
Keynote Speaker - Jack McGowan-Stinski
Jack McGowan-Stinski, The Ohio State Univ., Wooster, OH

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 7
Climate and Reanalysis Studies
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Andrew M. Chiodi
1:30 PM
7.1
The Impact of Snowmelt Timing on the Predictability of the Early Wildfire Season in Alaska
Peter Bieniek, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and U. S. Bhatt, C. F. Waigl, R. Lader, T. J. Ballinger, J. Hostler, C. Borries-Strigle, E. Fischer, M. Burgard, H. Strader, and E. Stevens

Handout (2.9 MB)

1:45 PM
7.2
A Live Fuel Moisture Climatology in California
Jack Drucker, San Jose State Unversity, San Jose, CA; and A. K. Kochanski, C. B. Clements, C. Bowers, D. Pina, Y. Moon, C. Arends, and B. D'Augustino

2:00 PM
7.3
Downslope Windstorms in the Front Range: A 21-Year Climatological Analysis
Serena DiLeonardo, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist

2:15 PM
7.4
Worldwide Pyrocumulonimbus Inventory Reveals the Frequency, Variability, and Stratospheric Impact of Smoke-Infused Storms during 2013-2021
David A. Peterson, NRL, Monterey, CA; NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Berman, M. D. Fromm, W. J. Julstrom, R. Servranckx, E. J. Hyer, J. R. Campbell, and T. M. McHardy

2:30 PM
7.5
Creating a 43-Year High Spatial and Temporal Resolution WRF Reanalysis for California and Nevada
Timothy J. Brown, ; and M. G. Fearon, H. Reinbold, and D. Podnar

2:45 PM
7.6
Importance of Soil Moisture in Understanding and Predicting Fire Danger: A Review of Some Recent Research
J. D. Carlson, Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; and E. S. Krueger, T. E. Ochsner, D. M. Engle, D. Twidwell, S. D. Fuhlendorf, S. Sharma, and M. R. Levi

3:00 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023


PM Coffee Break
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium; the 35th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology; and the Sixth Conference on Atmospheric Biogeosciences )

3:45 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 8
Fire Weather Research Program Overviews
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Joseph J. Charney, USDA
3:45 PM
8.1
NOAA Fire Weather Research Program and Fire Weather Activities at NOAA's Weather Program Office
Frank Jordan Dale, OAR, Silver Spring, MD; and D. M. Koch, J. L. Mahoney, G. M. Eosco, Ph.D, and M. Huang

4:00 PM
8.2
Research Meteorology in the US Forest Service: A Programmatic Update from the USFS Washington Office
Aaron Pina, US Forest Service, Washington, DC

4:15 PM
8.3
Predictive Services Program Update and Evolving Decision Support
Nicholas J. Nauslar,

4:30 PM
8.4
Refreshing the Fire Weather Agriculture Handbook 360: The New Fire Weather Handbook, A Guide for Application of Meteorological Information to Wildfire Management and Operations.
Darren R. Clabo, South Dakota Mines, Rapid City, SD

4:45 PM
8.5
Status of the NOAA Fire Weather Testbed
Daniel D. Nietfeld, NOAA/Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Heffernan and M. Pavalonis

5:00 PM
8.6
The NOAA/NESDIS Wildland Fire Program: A New Initiative for Impactful Exploitation of Satellites in Support of Wildland Fire Applications
Michael Pavolonis, NOAA, Madison, WI; and I. A. Csiszar, V. M. Escobar, M. D. Goldberg, A. Hill, S. Kondragunta, R. I. Lana, M. Laurino, E. C. McCaskill, T. M. Renkevens, BS (Millersville), MS (Oklahoma) Meteorology, and I. Zelo, MMA

5:15 PM-6:15 PM: Wednesday, 3 May 2023


Session
14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium Virtual Posters
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chairs: Brian Potter; Nicholas J. Nauslar, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, The University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
5:15 PM
V1
Cooperative Observations from Multiple Altitudes Can Yield Needed Operational Support and Advances in Wildland Fire Science.
J Timothy Ball, Fireball Information Technologies, LLC, Reno, NV; and C. Schmidt, C. Kuo, E. Wishnow, and C. R. Pennypacker

5:25 PM
V2
A Multi-Index Examination of Future Fire Season Length and Severity Over the United States
Lee Kessenich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Bukovsky, PhD, S. McGinnis, L. O. Mearns, A. Cullen, and J. T. Abatzoglou

Handout (10.2 MB)

5:35 PM
V3
Proof-of-Concept Mesoscale Discussions for Short-Term Wildfire Prediction on the Southern Great Plains
T. Todd Lindley, NOAA, Norman, OK; and G. Murdoch and P. T. Marsh
Manuscript (642.9 kB)

Handout (3.3 MB)

5:45 PM
V4
Fire Weather Forecasting for Forest Products Industry in Northern and Central California: Revisit Fire Spread and Lower Atmosphere Stability Indices
Alan D. Fox, Fox Weather, LLC, Fortuna, CA

Handout (1.3 MB) Handout (471.0 kB)

5:55 PM
V5
Dew Point Bombs: Large Model Errors Provide an Obvious Target of Opportunity for Fire Weather Forecasters
John R. Banghoff, MS, Penn State University; BS, The Ohio State University, NWS, State College, PA; NWS, State College, PA; and R. Radzanowski, M. L. Jurewicz Sr., M. R. Colbert, M. S. Katsouros, and P. Baumann

Handout (8.5 MB)

6:05 PM
V6
Compounding Impacts of Drought on Post-Fire Vegetation Response in Western U.S
Shahryar K Ahmad, NASA GSFC, Lanham, MD; GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and T. R. Holmes, S. V. Kumar, PhD, T. M. Lahmers, K. Locke, A. Guzman, and F. Melton

Thursday, 4 May 2023

Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 9
Field Studies
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Susan M. O'Neill, CIMMS
9.2
Wildfire Plume Structures Linked to Long-Range Spotting and Pyrometeor Transport

8:45 AM
9.1
The California Canyon Fire Experiment - Initial Results
Maritza Arreola Amaya, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and C. B. Clements, M. M. Valero, A. K. Kochanski, A. Simeoni, A. Filkov, P. Reszka, and J. Cuevas

9:00 AM
9.3
Wildfire Observations By Airborne and Truck-Based Mobile Doppler Lidars during the California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE)
Brian J. Carroll, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. W. Brewer, E. J. Strobach, M. Zucker, M. W. Holloway, R. Marchbanks, B. J. McCarty, A. S. Makowiecki, N. P. Lareau, and C. B. Clements

9.4
Processing Sonic Anemometer Data from Wildland Fire Field Experiments

9:30 AM
9.5
Investigating the Turbulent Dynamics of Small-Scale Surface Fires
Ajinkya Desai, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and S. Goodrick and T. Banerjee

9:45 AM
9.6
The Role of the Dappled Canopy: Diurnal Patterns in Surface Fuel Micrometeorology
Kara Yedinak, ; and J. K. Hiers, J. Cannon, B. E. Potter, and A. W. Whelan

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Thursday, 4 May 2023


AM Coffee Break
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Foyer (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium )

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 10
Operational Forecasting (Short- to Long-Term) of Weather
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Nicholas J. Nauslar, SPC
10:45 AM
10.1
Developing Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Vegetation Greenness Outlooks
Farnaz Hosseinpour, PhD, DRI, Reno, NV; and T. J. Brown

11:00 AM
10.2
Fire Weather Forecasting in the Pacific Northwest using 500mb Map Types
Reed Humphrey, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Saltenberger, J. T. Abatzoglou, and A. Cullen

11:15 AM
10.3
Early Warnings for Pyrocumulonimbus Development in Western North America Based on NUCAPS Thermodynamic Profiles
Arunas P. Kuciauskas, Retired, Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, MONTEREY, CA; and D. A. Peterson, A. A. Lambert, and J. R. Campbell

11:30 AM
10.4
Use of Traditional and Neural-Network Based Post-Processing Techniques to Improve Fire-Indicator and Wildfire-Relevant Weather Variable Forecasts 2–6 Weeks Ahead
Rochelle P. Worsnop, CIRES, Boulder, CO; ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Scheuerer, T. M. Hamill, M. Chen, M. Breeden, and A. J. Hoell

11:45 AM
10.5A
A Week-Two Probabilistic Fire Danger Outlook Tool Based on NCEP Ensemble Forecast System
Mingyue Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and R. P. Worsnop, W. Wang, and D. Dewitt

10.5
How can we Improve Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictions of Wildfire?

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 4 May 2023


Lunch Break
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium )

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 4 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 11
Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Applications to Fire II
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Wei-Ting Hung
1:30 PM
11.1
Exploring the Impact of Modeling Choices on Model Performance when Predicting Wildfire Occurrence for CONUS Using the Unet3+ Deep Learning Model
Bethany Earnest, CIWRO, Norman, OK; CIWRO, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, C. Karstens, and I. L. Jirak

1:45 PM
11.2
Remote Sensing of Live Fuel Moisture Content Using Machine Learning
Angel Farguell, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. Kochanski, J. Drucker, Y. Moon, C. Bowers, D. Pina, C. Arends, and B. D'Augustino

2:00 PM
11.3
Using Hybrid AI for Multiscale Wildfire Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Jared Michael Goldman, Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA; and A. Pfeffer, S. Cvijic, N. McGeorge, and M. Hiett

2:15 PM
11.4
A Classification Model for Daily Lightning Intensities in Alaska
Joshua Hostler, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and U. S. Bhatt, P. Bieniek, E. Fischer, T. J. Ballinger, C. Borries-Strigle, R. Thoman, R. Lader, M. Burgard, C. F. Waigl, J. Chriest, H. Strader, E. Stevens, and Z. Parish

2:30 PM
11.5
Development and Evaluation of a Machine Learning Based Wildfire Spread Prediction Model for Regional Air Quality Forecasting
Wei-Ting Hung, ARL, College Park, MD; George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and B. Baker, P. C. Campbell, Y. Tang, G. R. Jeong, and Z. Moon

2:45 PM
11.6
A Fast Fire Rate of Spread Model Leveraging Machine Learning
Adam Kochanski, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. Farguell, J. Drucker, and J. Mandel

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 4 May 2023


PM Coffee Break
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Foyer (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium )

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 May 2023

Recording files available
Session 12
Smoke from Prescribed Fires and Wildfires
Location: Scandinavian Ballroom Salon 4 (Royal Sonesta Minneapolis Downtown )
Host: 14th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
Chair: Scott Goodrick, USDA
4:00 PM
12.1
Profiles of Operational and Research Forecasting of Smoke and Air Quality Around the World
Susan M. O'Neill, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and P. Xian, J. Flemming, M. Cope, A. Baklanov, N. Larkin, J. K. Vaughan, D. Tong, R. Howard, R. Stull, D. Davignon, R. Ahmadov, M. T. Odman, J. Innis, M. Azzi, C. Gan, R. Pavlovic, B. N. Chew, J. S. Reid, E. J. Hyer, Z. Kipling, A. Benedetti, P. R. Colarco, A. M. da Silva, T. Tanaka, J. T. McQueen, P. S. Bhattacharjee, J. Guth, N. Asencio, O. Jorba, C. P. Garcia-Pando, R. Kouznetsov, M. Sofiev, M. Brooks, J. Chen, E. P. James, F. Reisen, A. Wain, K. McTaggart, and A. MacNeil

4:15 PM
12.2
A Numerical Study of Smoke Dispersion Sensitivity to Forest Canopy Structure and Fire Sensible Heat Source Magnitude
Michael T. Kiefer, Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI; and S. Zhong, J. J. Charney, X. Bian, and W. E. Heilman

4:30 PM
12.3
Assessing Mixing Heights from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Version 4
Emily Liknes, South Dakota Mines, Rapid City, SD

4:45 PM
12.4
Timeliness of Fire Observations as a Skill Factor for Aerosol Prediction
Edward J. Hyer, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Camacho, D. A. Peterson, and A. Lambert

5:00 PM
12.5
Analyzing Wildfire Smoke Impacts on Urban Air Quality Using a Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Model
Derek V. Vincent Mallia, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; Univ. of Utah, SALT LAKE CITY, UT; and A. K. Kochanski, A. Farguell, K. Kelly, and J. Mandel

5:15 PM
12.6
Remote Sensing of Wildfire Smoke Plume Height from Satellites and Airborne Sensors during the FIREX-AQ/ER-2 Field Campaign
Michael J. Garay, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and O. V. Kalashnikova

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