Decision-Making on the Fireline: Is Probabilistic Information Useful?

The value of a weather forecast is based on its ability to influence positive decisions. Ensemble and probabilistic data has increased in weather forecasting resulting in more information that can be communicated to users. This poster will present the reasoning behind the National Weather Service’s move towards providing more explicit probabilistic forecasts rather than subjective wording. New tools that are being developed to help with those probabilities will also be included. Direct user response to probabilistic data from an Incident Meteorologist’s perspective will also be shared.