A Week-Two Probabilistic Fire Danger Outlook Tool Based on NCEP Ensemble Forecast System

Designing to provide early warning information for strategic planning of fire mitigation and suppression, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NCEP has implemented a real time fire weather outlook tool to predict week-two (8-14 day) fire danger conditions. The framework of week-two fire danger forecast system was developed at NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory. In the forecast system, the fire danger indices that define the relationship among weather, fuels, and topography, are simulated from the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast model with meteorological forcing from numerical weather predictions. The real time outlook tool uses post-processed forecast meteorological forcing fields from the NCEP operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12), and produces three-category probabilistic outlooks for week-two fire indices over the contiguous US. Evaluation of the forecast fire indices based on the meteorological forcing from the GEFSv12 hindcasts shows reasonable week-two forecast skills. This suggests potential usefulness of the week-two probabilistic fire weather outlook in supporting the decision-making for fire management activities beyond the current fire indices forecast products at shorter lead times from the NWS and Wildland Fire Assessment System. This presentation provides an overview of the real time outlook tool and its predictability and prediction skill.