Measurement and Modeling of Wind and Wind Gusts for Prescribed and Wildfires

Wind is one of the most influential properties driving fire behavior. Gusts, in particular, can change a fire’s trajectory. Measurement of wind is an area of long-standing research, but communication of those measurements to practitioners may be losing important information. Winds obtained from numerical weather prediction models are instantaneous representations of the air movement necessary to satisfy the Navier-Stokes equations, which can be substantially different from a time-averaged value obtained by a sensor. Relating model winds to observed winds, and doing so in a way that provides greatest value to fire practitioners, is an ongoing, but under-emphasized, area for valuable research.

A group convened early this week to discuss how wind is modeled, measured, and quantified, and the implications of these methodologies for fire behavior modeling and operational fire weather forecasting. This presentation provides background on the question, and a summary of the discussion.