A radar-based flash flood forecasting for the Llobregat river basin in the Catalonia region (Spain)

The region of Catalonia is one of the most affected by floods in Mediterranean area. One of the largest river basins in this area is the Llobregat river basin, where two different subbasins were selected for the study of flash floods in the last 15 years. An attempt has been made by the regional government in order to implement an operational flood warning system for minimizing risk to people, economic activities and properties. Initially a radar data quality control scheme was implemented and then a distributed hydrological model was applied in order to simulate rainfall runoff data for the two subbasins. The aim of this study is to assess the uncertainty of discharge forecasts associated to errors in radar precipitation estimation and hydrological modeling parameters in order to provide the knowledge for a future operational probabilistic forecast.