Monitoring and prediction of torrential tainfall for extreme weather resilient cities

In 2010, the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) launched the new program “Society System Reforming Program Corresponding to Climate Change” under the “Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology” of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). The program aims to develop elementary technologies which are required for not only reduction of greenhouse gas but also adaptation of new societies to the future global warming impacts that cannot be avoided, The present paper describes the research project “Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities” which is one of four research projects adopted by the JST.

It is recognized that large cities with a population of several million people are inherently vulnerable to severe weathers such as torrential rainfall, lightning, and tornados. Increase in the number of occurrences of torrential rainfall and giant typhoon, which may be due to the global warming, can bring extensive damages in large cities. Thus, the developments of monitoring and prediction system of extreme weather are urgent. The present research project aims to understand the process and mechanism of extreme weather using dense meteorological observation networks designed in the Tokyo metropolitan district, to develop the monitoring and predicting system of extreme phenomena (MPSEP), and to implement social experiments on extreme weather resilient cities in collaboration with the related government institutions, local governments, private companies, and residents.

The project consists of three research subjects: 1) Studies on extreme weather with dense meteorological observations, 2) Developments of the early detection and prediction system of extreme weather, and 3) Social experiments on extreme weather resilient cities. A total of 24 organizations and a total of over 90 people participate in the research projects. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is responsible for planning and accomplishment of the whole project as the core research organization. In the first research subject, a variety of cumulus activities in the Tokyo Metropolitan area are studied by dense research and operational meteorological observation networks, numerical experiments, and statistical analysis of environmental conditions preferable for extreme weather to understand the initiation, development, and dissipation processes of convective precipitation. Meteorological Research (MRI) is responsible for the research subject where a total of twelve research institutes and universities are involved. The aim of the second research subject is to establish the “Monitoring and Prediction System of Extreme Phenomena (MPSEP)” which can process real-time data of the dense meteorological observation networks and predict localized heavy rainfalls and strong winds. Information from the MPSEP is utilized in social experiments described in the third research subject. It is also aim of the research subject to establish database of the extreme weather which is useful for planning disaster countermeasures. NIED is responsible for the second research subject where a total of seven research institutes and universities are involved.

The aim of the third research project is to validate the effects of the MPSEP on disaster prevention and the reduction of damage in these situations trough field tests of the MPSEP in four different disciplines: Emergency deployments, river managements, infrastructures, and educations. Before implementing social experiments, surveys on appropriate information and effective means of transmitting information will be done in the each experimental field to make the MPSEP suitable for practical use. Toyo University is responsible for the third research subject where a total of eleven research institutes, universities, national and local government organizations.