15A.1 African Easterly Wave Strength and Observed Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Characteristics

Thursday, 9 May 2024: 1:45 PM
Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)
Emily Bercos-Hickey, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. M. Patricola

African easterly waves (AEWs) are a key feature of the summertime circulation over North Africa. AEWs can have far-reaching effects as they often play an important role in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) development. It is well established, however, that not all AEWs develop into TCs and there has been extensive research on the differences between developing and non-developing AEWs. In this study we focus specifically on the characteristics, environments, and resulting TCs of developing AEWs over a 41-year period. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with AEW origins from the observational record between 1980-2020. We then used an objective tracking algorithm to identify the developing AEWs in reanalysis data. Our results indicate a robust relationship between the strength of the developing AEWs, the sea surface temperature (SST), and TC genesis location and landfall. We found that weaker AEWs develop closer to the Americas with SSTs that are notably warmer than those of the stronger AEWs which develop closer to Africa. Our results suggests that weaker developing AEWs may require the warmer SSTs found in the western Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis to occur. Consequently, the TCs that develop from weaker AEWs are more likely to make landfall due to the close proximity of their genesis locations to the Americas.
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