36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) I (HWRF and HAFS developments)

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Session 1A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics I

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Yi-Hsuan Huang; Maria Gehne, CIRES

8:30 AM

1A.1

ENSO Modulation of Tropical Cyclones in CMIP6 and Highresmip Projections

Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, LDEO, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, C. Karamperidou, C. Francis, S. DiPietro, and C. M. Patricola

8:45 AM

1A.2

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Modulation of Tropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Models

Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, NY; and C. Francis, S. J. Camargo, PhD, C. M. Patricola, and C. Karamperidou

9:00 AM

1A.3

Investigating the Correlation between Heat Waves and Tropical Storms for Broward County:

Loyda Melissa Zavaleta Coello, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and M. Costa

Manuscript (194.9 kB)

9:15 AM

1A.4

Why so Many Double and Triple La Niña Events Emerged Recently

Bin Wang, IPRC, Honolulu, HI

9:30 AM

1A.5

Migration from a Subtropical Climate to a Tropical Climate in Coastal Areas

Itxaso Odériz, IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, Spain; IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain; and I. J. Losada

9:45 AM

1A.6

A Better Understanding of ENSO-Related Tropical Cyclone Activity in French Polynesia

Bastien Pagli, University of French Polynesia, FAAA, French polynesia; and T. Izumo, S. Cravatte, M. Hopuare, V. Laurent, S. Martinoni-Lapierre, C. Menkes, and D. Monselesan

Session 1B

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions I

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Roger K. Smith

CoChair: Juliane Schwendike, BOM

8:30 AM

1B.1

Examination of Multiple Pathways to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation within the Marsupial and Rotating Convection Paradigms

Mark Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery

8:45 AM

1B.2

The Budget of Turbulence Kinetic Energy (TKE) in a Large-Eddy Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno

9:00 AM

1B.3

The Diffusive Role of Turbulence in an Intense Tropical Cyclone

Chibueze Nnamdi Oguejiofor, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; and G. H. Bryan, R. Rotunno, P. P. Sullivan, and D. H. Richter

Manuscript (2.3 MB)

9:15 AM

1B.4

Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle in a Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulation

Michael T. Montgomery, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith and G. Kilroy

9:30 AM

1B.5

What Are the Finger-like Clouds Along the Inner Edge of Hurricane Eyewall?

Kun Gao, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Manuscript (226.0 kB)

9:45 AM

1B.6

On the Lateral Entrainment Instability in the Inner Core Region of Tropical Cyclones

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang and F. D. Marks Jr., ScD

Session 1C

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Aaron J. Poyer; Zhan Zhang, EMC

8:30 AM

1C.1

Lifetime Performance of the Operational HWRF

Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Sippel, Z. Zhang, H. S. Kim, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, V. S. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, X. Zhang, A. J. Poyer, and S. Gopalakrishnan

9:00 AM

1C.2

The G-IV Inner Circumnavigation: A Story of Successful Organic R2O at NOAA

Jason A. Sippel, AOML, Miami, FL; and S. D. Ditchek, K. E. Ryan, and C. W. Landsea

9:15 AM

1C.3

Recent Work on the Impact of Aircraft Reconnaissance Data on TC Forecasts

Sarah D. Ditchek, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and AOML, Miami, FL; and J. A. Sippel and G. J. Alaka Jr.

9:30 AM

1C.4

The Basin Centric HAFS Modeling System

Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, AOML, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., W. Ramstrom, M. C. Ko, L. J. Gramer, and Z. Zhang

9:45 AM

1C.5

Modeling Storm-Storm Interactions from the 2023 Hurricane Season with Multiple Moving Nests in HAFS

William D. Ramstrom, RSMAS, Miami, FL; NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, A. Hazelton, L. J. Gramer, and M. C. Ko

Session 1D

Tropical Convection I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Kathleen Schiro, JPL; Fiaz Ahmed

8:30 AM

1D.1

What Controls Timing of Deep Convective Onset in the Tropics? (Hint: Much more than only an environmental thermodynamic profile.)

Scott W Powell, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

8:45 AM

1D.2

The Morphology and Modes of Evolution of Tropical Convective Updrafts over Convective Time-Scales

Sai Prasanth, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and Z. Haddad, D. J. Posselt, PhD, P. J. Marinescu, and S. C. Van Den Heever

9:00 AM

1D.3

Understanding the Convection in Water Vapor "Lakes" in the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean

Snigdha Samantaray, PhD Student, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. E. Mapes

9:15 AM

1D.4

Investigating Environmental Controls on Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Lifecycles

Sayali Kulkarni, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

Manuscript (69.5 kB)

9:30 AM

1D.5

Moist Halo Region Around Shallow Cumulus Clouds in Large Eddy Simulations

Jian-Feng Gu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and B. Plant, C. E. Holloway, and P. Clark

9:45 AM

1D.6

Diurnal Variability of Tropical Deep Convection across Global Tropics Captured By the GNSS and Satellites Data.

Zofia Baldysz, Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Science, Warsaw, MZ, Poland; and G. Nykiel, D. B. Baranowski, and B. Latos

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and Tropical Cyclones: Results From NOAA-CIRES-DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis v3 (20CRv3) and HURDAT2

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Session 2A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics II

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Eric S. Blake, NHC; Andreas H. Fink

10:45 AM

2A.1

Can Internal Variability Explain Trends in the Latitude of Lifetime Maximum Intensity?

Jonathan Lin, LDEO, Palisades, NY

11:00 AM

2A.2

Tropical Cyclones in Decadal High-Resolution Simulations

Mikael Karvinen, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and N. Brüggemann and J. Marotzke

11:15 AM

2A.3

How Do Tropical Cyclones Directly Simulated in Climate Models Differ From Statistically-Dynamically Generated Storms?

Ana Josefa Bolivar, Penn State University, State College, PA; and C. M. Zarzycki

2A.4

11:45 AM

2A.5

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropical Cyclones in IBTrACS

Jennifer Gahtan, National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC; and C. J. Schreck III, J. E. Uehling, and K. R. Knapp

12:00 PM

2A.6

Trends in Daily Temperatures and the Diurnal Cycle

Maria Gehne, CIRES, Boulder, CO

Recent Global Decrease in the Inner-Core Rain Rate of Tropical Cyclones

Session 2B

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions II

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Roger K. Smith

CoChair: Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ.

10:45 AM

2B.1

Wind Distribution in the Eye of Tropical Cyclone Revealed by a Novel Atmospheric Motion Vector Derivation

Taiga Tsukada, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; and T. Horinouchi and S. Tsujino

11:00 AM

2B.2

An Analytical Model for Tropical Cyclone Outer-Size Expansion on the f-Plane

Danyang Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

11:15 AM

2B.3

Understanding the Influence of Uniform Flow on Tropical Cyclogenesis and Intensification

John Joseph Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

11:30 AM

2B.4

Hurricane Boundary Layer Response to Idealized Combinations of Moderate Steering and Shear

Kyle K. Ahern, SUNY, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

11:45 AM

2B.5

Understanding the Turbulent Dynamics of Convective Bursts and Tropical Cyclone Intensification Using Large Eddy Simulations and High-Order Numerics

Stephen R. Guimond, Hampton University, Hampton, VA; and Y. Tissaoui and S. Marras

12:00 PM

2B.6

Role of Wavenumber-1 Disturbances in Redistributing Angular Momentum in TC Eyes: Implication from High-Resolution AMVs

Takeshi Horinouchi, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; and T. Tsukada, S. Tsujino, and U. Shimada

The impact of a modified subgrid-scale 3D turbulence closure on tropical cyclone dynamics in a convection-permitting simulation

Session 2C

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) II (Forecast Models)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Xuejin Zhang, AOML; Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., AOML

10:45 AM

2C.1

Unified Forecast System (UFS)-based Operational Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP)

Avichal Mehra, NOAA, College Park, MD

11:00 AM

2C.2

HFIP Real-Time Parallel Experiments for 2023 and 2024 Hurricane Seasons Using HAFS-A Configurations

Bin Liu, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Shin, B. Thomas, Z. Zhang, H. S. Kim, B. Li, C. K. Wang, M. F. Aristizabal Vargas, J. D. Steffen, W. Wang, L. Zhu, X. Li, Y. Weng, J. Cheng, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

11:15 AM

2C.3

Improving NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: HAFSv2 Upgrades and Operational Implementation

Zhan Zhang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and X. Zhang, B. Liu, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, S. Gopalakrishnan, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, A. J. Poyer, W. Komaromi, and J. Anderson

11:30 AM

2C.4

Performance of GFDL SHiELD and T-SHiELD Forecasts During Recent Hurricane Seasons

Timothy P. Marchok, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and L. M. Harris, K. Gao, L. Zhou, M. Morin, J. H. Chen, and A. Kaltenbaugh

11:45 AM

2C.5

Cloud and Vertical Velocity Field Improvement in the HAFS-Vortex Initialization

Jung Hoon Shin, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Zhang, B. Liu, Y. Weng, C. K. Wang, Q. Liu, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

12:00 PM

2C.6

'A Summary of Recent Achievements and Future Strategic Planning for Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)'

Jason R. Anderson, NOAA OSTI-M, NOAA, Rensselaer, NY; and A. J. Poyer and W. Komaromi

Session 2D

Tropical Convection II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Kathleen Schiro, JPL; Fiaz Ahmed

10:45 AM

2D.1

Aggregation-Disaggregation Cycles in ERA5

Larissa E Back, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and V. Maithel

Handout (2.6 MB)

2D.2

Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Organization in the Australian Tropics

11:15 AM

2D.3

Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature Inconsistent Predictor of Extreme Surface Rainfall in Equatorial Africa

Patrick C Andrews, University of Texas at Austin, AUSTIN, TX

11:30 AM

2D.4

Convective Entrainment Effect Intensifies Surface Extreme Moist Heat Waves

Suqin Duan, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and F. Ahmed and J. D. Neelin

11:45 AM

2D.5

Investigating the Relationships Between Rotation and Heavy Rainfall Along the Mei-yu Front During PRECIP 2022

Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell and T. W. Barbero

12:00 PM

2D.6

Upscale Energy Transport in the Tropical Atmosphere

Fran Morris, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and J. L. Warner, C. L. Bain, J. Schwendike, and D. J. Parker

Handout (5.1 MB)

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Session 3A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics III

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Alyssa M Stansfield; Christopher W. Landsea, NHC

1:45 PM

3A.1

Attributing Historical Increases in Tropical Cyclone Intensities to Human-Driven Sea Surface Temperature Warming

Daniel M. Gilford, PhD, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and A. Pershing and J. Giguere

2:00 PM

3A.2

Extreme Rainfall over West Africa: Current State and Projected Impacts of Climate Change

Andreas H. Fink, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Maranan

2:15 PM

3A.3

An Enhanced La Niña-like Forced Response by Reducing Mean State Biases in CESM2

Jingyi Zhuo, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, R. Seager, A. H. Sobel, S. J. Camargo, B. Fosu, Y. H. Lin, and K. A. Reed

2:30 PM

3A.4

Distinctive South and East Asian Monsoon Circulation Responses to Global Warming

Tim Li, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; Univ. of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI; University of Hawaii at Manoa, HONOLULU, HI; and Y. Wang

2:45 PM

3A.5

Contribution of Tropical Indo-Pacific Precipitation Anomaly to Seasonal Differences of Long-term Changes in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Jinhui Ju, Kyungpook National University, Buk-gu, Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. S. R. Park, D. Kim, M. Chang, and C. K. Park

Manuscript (780.9 kB)

3:00 PM

3A.6

Quantifying the Anthropogenic Impact on Vapor Pressure Deficit Increases and Drying Trends over the Southeast Amazon

Alex Chang, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Zhuang and R. Fu

Session 3B

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions III

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Roger K. Smith; Michael T Montgomery, NPS

1:45 PM

3B.1

Use of Three-Dimensional Model Data to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Levi Cowan, JTWC, Honolulu, HI; JTWC, Pearl Harbor, HI

2:00 PM

3B.2

Deep Eye Clouds in Tropical Cyclone Trami (2018) during T-PARCII Dropsonde Observations

Soichiro Hirano, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and K. Ito, H. Yamada, S. Tsujino, K. Tsuboki, and C. C. Wu

2:15 PM

3B.3

On the Intensification of Typhoon Damrey with the Monsoon Gyre

Lina Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

2:30 PM

3B.4

A moist potential vorticity perspective on the presence of inertial instability along the subtropical jet during the extratropical transition process

Ian C Beckley, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI

Handout (7.8 MB)

2:45 PM

3B.5

Three-dimensional Fujiwhara Effect

Kosuke Ito, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and J. D. LEE, S. Hirano, and J. C. L. Chan

3:00 PM

3B.6

Updraft-Scale Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Wallace A. Hogsett, NOAA National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Martinez

Session 3C

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) III (TC model Physics)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Andrew Hazelton, AOML; Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, AOML

1:45 PM

3C.1

A Scale-Aware Three-Dimensional TKE Turbulent Mixing Parameterization for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and J. W. Bao, K. Y. Fung, J. A. Zhang, X. Zhang, and Z. Zhang

2:00 PM

3C.2

A Total Turbulent Energy (TTE)-based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Parameterization for Vertical Turbulent Mixing and its Impact on Hurricane Intensity and Track Forecasts

Jongil Han, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and W. Li, J. Peng, and F. Yang

2:15 PM

3C.3

Parameterizations of Boundary Layer Mass Fluxes in High-Wind Conditions for Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

Xiaomin Chen, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and F. D. Marks Jr., ScD

2:30 PM

3C.4

A Scale Aware Physics Package (SAPP) for Tropical Cyclone Model and Its Experimental Application

Yu Hui, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and W. Huang, X. S. ZHU, F. Zhang, X. Wang, Z. Xu, Q. Wan, L. Deng, M. Liu, H. Wang, Y. Yin, G. Chen, Y. Zhao, T. Li, Y. Ma, G. Ye, B. Zhao, Z. Meng, and Q. Huang

2:45 PM

3C.5

Evaluation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Using Alternative Physics Configurations

Kathryn M. Newman, DTC, Boulder, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Nelson, M. K. Biswas, M. Zhang, and S. Trahan

3C.6

A Novel Metric to Improve Predictability in Hurricane Forecast Models: Volume-Integrated Kinetic Energy (VIKE)

Session 3D

Modeling and Parameterization of Moist Convection Across Scales I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Marcin Kurowski, JPL

CoChair: Yang Tian, Harvard University

1:45 PM

3D.1

Quasi-Equilibrium Convection in a Global Cloud-Resolving Model

Seth Seidel, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and N. Arnold

2:00 PM

3D.2

A Scale-Aware Non-Quasi-Equilibrium Mass-Flux Cloud Parametrization

Etienne Leclerc, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider

Manuscript (327.2 kB)

2:15 PM

3D.3

A Shallow-Deep Unified Stochastic Mass Flux Cumulus Parameterization in the Single Column Community Climate Model

Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

2:30 PM

3D.4

Unified Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterizations in Global Models

Joao P. Teixeira, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and K. Suselj, A. Herrington, M. J. Kurowski, M. chinita, X. Jiang, and J. T. Bacmeister

2:45 PM

3D.5

Between a Cloud-resolving Model and a Steady Plume: Uses of a Time-dependent Anelastic Convective Entity (ACE) Model

Yi-Hung Kuo, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and J. D. Neelin, M. Zhao, and Z. Tan

3:00 PM

3D.6

Convective Aggregation and Tropical Climate in RCEMIP

Allison A. Wing, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. G. Silvers and K. A. Reed

3:15 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Session

Virtual eLightning Poster Presentations I (Monday)

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Pablo Santos, NWS; Naoko Sakaeda, Oklahoma University

3:15 PM

V1.1

The Potential Uses of Filamentation Time As a Diagnostic Tool in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting.

William Torgerson, University of Leeds, York, United kingdom; and J. Schwendike and A. N. Ross

3:18 PM

V1.2

Physics Schemes in NCEP Operational Hafs v1 and the Impacts of TC-Specific Modifications

Weiguo Wang, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, COLLEGE PARK, MD; and J. Han, J. H. Shin, X. Chen, A. Hazelton, L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, X. Li, B. Liu, Q. Liu, J. D. Steffen, R. Sun, W. Zheng, Z. Zhang, and F. Yang

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

3:21 PM

V1.3

A Dedicated Convection-Permitting Ensemble in the Operational NWP Systems at Météo-France for the Tropics

Olivier Nuissier, METEO-FRANCE (CNRM - CNRS), Toulouse, France; and A. Colomb, T. Kriat, and S. Langlade

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (2.7 MB)

3:24 PM

V1.4

An Investigation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecast Performance with the Basin-Scale HAFS

Mu-Chieh Ko, NOAA/OAR/AOML/HRD & UM/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr.

3:27 PM

V1.5

Towards an Updated Climatology of Overland Tropical Cyclone Maintenance and Intensification in Non-/Weakly Baroclinic Environments

Andrew O. Hickok, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Vossen and C. Evans

Handout (1.0 MB)

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A Climatological Analysis of Upper-Level Velocity Potential using Global Weather Reanalysis, 1959-2020

Handout (4.2 MB)

Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Tornado-Producing Tropical Cyclones

Dakota Clay Forbis, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. M. Patricola, E. Bercos-Hickey, and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Counting Global Tropical Cyclones: It’s harder than it sounds!

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and H. J. Diamond, J. Gahtan, K. R. Knapp, and P. J. Klotzbach

Impact of Vegetation Feedback on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Under Climate Change

Hyeong-Seog Kim, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, South korea; and D. Ryu

Global Assessment of Compound Tropical Cyclone-Heat Hazards in a Changing Climate

Samantha Frucht, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. W. Baldwin

Paper 2A.3 will also be presented as Poster 7

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Causes Fewer Low-Latitudinal Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Shinto Roose, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. S. Ajayamohan, P. K. Ray, S. P. Xie, C. sabeerali, M. Mohapatra, S. Taraphdar, K. Mohanakumar, and M. Rajeevan

Tropical Cyclone Asymmetry and Wind Shear Interactions Under Global Warming in a Variable-Resolution Climate Model

Jacob Carstens, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and C. M. Zarzycki and A. C. Didlake Jr.

Potential Intensity in Current and Future Climates: Sources of Error in Historical HighResMIP Simulations

Aidan D Mahoney, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden and B. Zhang

Future Projection of Summertime Subtropical Stationary Waves and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and C. C. Chang, M. Zhao, and M. Ting

Modeling and Parameterization of Moist Convection Across Scales

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Marcin Kurowski, JPL

Performance of the CAM Simulations through a Stochastic Mulitcloud/Unified Shallow-Deep Convection Scheme over the Tropics

Kumar Roy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider, R. P. M. Krishna, and B. B. Goswami

Variational Bayes Inference for Stochastic Convection Parametrizations

Carlos Sevilla, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider

How Does Our Definition of Anvil Cloud Fraction Affect Its Trend with Warming in Cloud-Resolving Simulations?

Seth Seidel, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Yang

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Impact of Three-Dimensional Turbulent Transport Parameterization on Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Kwun Yip Fung, Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami (UM), Miami, FL; and P. Zhu, J. A. Zhang, X. Zhang, J. W. Bao, and Z. Zhang

A Framework for Simulating Hurricane Boundary Layers using Large-Eddy Simulation and Its Use in Developing PBL parameterizations for NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

Xiaomin Chen, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and G. H. Bryan, A. Hazelton, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, J. J. Cione, PhD, J. A. Zhang, G. J. Alaka Jr., and P. Fitzpatrick

EMC Verification System: Using MET & Metplus for in-Season Tropical Cyclone Verification and Analysis

Olivia R. Ostwald, SAIC at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Washington, DC; and J. Peng and A. M. Bentley

Evaluation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Forecast Statistics by Stratifying Environmental and Internal Structure Metrics of Tropical Cyclones

George R. Alvey III, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., L. J. Gramer, and A. Hazelton

Evaluation of Large and Storm Scale Environment of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Model Output

Mrinal K. Biswas, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Newman, B. Nelson, B. Liu, and Z. Zhang

Integration of Model Large-Scale Environmental Diagnostics for Tropical Cyclones into the Enhanced Model Environmental Tools (METplus) Verification System

Kate Musgrave, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and P. A. Kucera, R. T. DeMaria, J. L. Vigh, J. Halley Gotway, T. L. Jensen, K. Newman, G. P. McCabe Jr., M. Win-Gildenmeister, T. Burek, A. Brammer, and W. A. Hogsett

Impacts of Model Physical Parameters at the Air-Sea Interface on the Background Ensemble of HAFS-MOM6 EnVar Data Assimilation for Hurricane Fiona (2022)

Yue Yang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, X. Lu, H. S. Kim, J. A. Zhang, H. kang, and Y. Li

Evaluation of Retrospective Hafs Forecasts with a Large Airborne Radar Dataset

Andrew T. Hazelton, Univ. of Miami CIMAS, Miami, FL; and M. S. Fischer, G. R. Alvey III, L. J. Gramer, R. F. Rogers, X. Chen, G. J. Alaka Jr., S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr., ScD

Handout (3.6 MB)

Tropical Convection

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Where's the convection? Some findings from the OTREC project

Barbara Andrea Olivares-Carvajal, New mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Stone, S. Sentic, and D. J. Raymond

The Ubiquity of Moisture Modes and Moisture-Vortex Instability

Victor C. Mayta, University of Madison - Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Á. F. Adames Corraliza

Diagnosing the Evolution and Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Cyclone Yasa Using Potential Vorticity from ECMWF High-Resolution Operational Forecasts

Prediction Skills of Rainfall Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent and the Influences from Madden-Julian Oscillation in ECMWF and NCEP S2S Reforecasts

Wayne Yuan-Huai Tsai, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Sakaeda and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

The Connection Between Mesoscale Convective Systems and Thermodynamic and Dynamic Factors

Rebecca Lynn Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

The Seasonal Evolution of Low Clouds and the Southern ITCZ over the East Pacific Ocean

Fouzia Fahrin, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. O. Gonzalez, G. Cesana, C. A. DeMott, and R. B. Neale

Reprocessing 30 Years of Deep Convection Data from NASA Goddard's High-altitude Airborne Radars

Charles N. Helms, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield, P. Pantina, and M. McLinden

Handout (34.5 MB)

Relationships between Clouds, Circulation, and Radiation in Long-Channel Radiative Convective Equilibrium Simulations

Peter G. Hill, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and C. E. Holloway

Diurnal Variations in the Meridional Overtuning Circulation over West Africa and the Associated Convective Cloud Structures

Jonathan Charles Lewis, Texas A&M, College Station, TX

Handout (1.6 MB)

JAkarta Heavy precipitation Experiment (JAHE), a field research project over the Indonesian maritime continent (IMC) as a part of Asian Precipitation Experiment (AsiaPEX)

Shuichi Mori, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan; and J. I. Hamada, K. Souma, P. M. Wu, R. Sulistyowati, S. Lestari, and F. Syamsudin

Relationship of Island and Offshore Diurnal Rainfall Over Sumatra

Grant Christian Talkington, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Sakaeda and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

Daily ITCZ States over the East Pacific in Observations, Reanalyses, and CMIP6 Models

Alex Omar Gonzalez, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and F. Fahrin, I. Ganguly, and Q. J. Lin

Handout (8.7 MB)

Relationships between Thermodynamics and Vertical Motion Profile Shape during Otrec

Larissa E Back, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

Rotation, Convection and Hurricane State Determined by Entropic Forces

Tropical Convective Variability in the NOAA UFS - A Process - Level Assesment

Vijit Maithel, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and B. Wolding, M. Gehne, J. Dias, and S. N. Tulich

Rains-Showers Paradigm in Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection Field Project Observations

Dynamical Controls of Mesoscale Water Vapor Variability in the Tropical Western Pacific

Adrian Mark Tompkins, ICTP, Trieste, TS, Italy; and A. Casallas and M. V. De Vera

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Driving Forces of Extreme Updrafts Associated with Convective Bursts in the Eyewall of a Simulated Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Tropopause Layer Hydration By Overshooting Deep Convection in Hurricanes

Morgan E O'Neill, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and D. S. Nolan and M. S. Fischer

Potential vorticity perspectives on the development of inertial instability in tropical cyclones

Ian C Beckley, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI; and Á. F. Adames Corraliza

Handout (797.4 kB)

A Moist Potential Vorticity View of the Connection between Tropical Cyclones and Large-Scale Regions of Inertial Instability on the Equatorward Side of the Subtropical Jet

A Three-Dimensional Portrait of the Multiscale Interaction Underlying the Typhoons over Northwest Pacific Ocean

Jiwang Ma, Southern Marine Laboratory, Zhuhai, China; Fudan University, Shanghai, China; and X. S. Liang, Y. Rong, and F. Xu

Poster Session 1/Coffee Break

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Session 4A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics IV

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Daniel M. Gilford, PhD, Rutgers University; Edward K. Vizy

4:45 PM

4A.1

Evaluating the Responses of Hurricanes to Climate Warming Using WRF and CAM Storyline Ensembles

Dian-Yi Li, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and K. A. Reed, S. J. Camargo, PhD, and C. M. Zarzycki

5:00 PM

4A.2

Real-time Attribution of the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Events: a Storyline Case Study of Hurricane Ian Rainfall

Kevin A. Reed, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and M. F. Wehner

5:15 PM

4A.3

Future Changes in the ENSO –Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection and Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Christina M. Patricola, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. C. T. Sena, T. J. Mueller, G. Hansen, E. Bercos-Hickey, and B. Loring

5:30 PM

4A.4

Has the Climate of the Congo Basin Become Less Able to Support a Tropical Forest Ecosystem?

Edward K. Vizy, The University of Texas at Austin, AUSTIN, TX; and K. H. Cook

5:45 PM

4A.5

Freddy: Breaking Record for Tropical Cyclone Precipitation?

Enrico Scoccimarro, Fondazione Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and P. Lanteri and L. Cavicchia

Session 4B

Tropical Cyclones Structure I

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Philippe P. Papin, NCEP

CoChair: David A. Zelinsky, NWS

4:45 PM

4B.1

A Simple Model for Predicting the Tropical Cyclone Minimum Central Pressure from Intensity and Size (Invited Presentation)

Daniel R Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and J. Knaff and P. J. Klotzbach

5:00 PM

4B.2

An Analytic and Fast Model for the Complete Radial Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field

Dandan Tao, University of Bergen, Bergen, Bergen, Norway; and R. G. Nystrom and D. R. Chavas

5:15 PM

4B.3

Wind Radii Climatology of North Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

John Paulo Cangialosi, NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Collado, MA

5:30 PM

4B.4

The Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Tendency on Size

Nathan John Sparks, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; and R. S. Toumi

5:45 PM

4B.5

How does the Merge of the A Tropical Depression cause the Size Change of Typhoon HINNAMNOR (2022)?

Mao-Cheng Li, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TPE, Taiwan; and M. J. Yang

Session 4C

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) IV: Forecast & Challenges

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Xiaomin Chen, The University of Alabama at Huntsville; Ryan D. Torn, SUNY

4:45 PM

4C.1

Hurricane Otis: A Case for a Rapid Migration Toward Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Lin

5:00 PM

4C.2

The Progress of Operational Regional Hurricane Model Track Forecast Performance Compared with Global Forecast Models

Lin Zhu, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, W. Wang, J. H. Shin, M. F. Aristizabal Vargas, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

Handout (3.8 MB)

5:15 PM

4C.3

Exploration of Satellite Predictors in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

5:30 PM

4C.4

Exploring Hafs Forecast Challenges with Extreme Intensification and Weakening during 2023 Hurricanes Lee and Otis

Andrew T. Hazelton, Univ. of Miami CIMAS, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, G. J. Alaka Jr., L. J. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, and M. C. Ko

What Factors Caused the Rapid Intensification Forecast Failure of the Hurricane Otis (2023) in Real-Time Operational Models?

Session 4D

Modeling and Parameterization of Moist Convection Across Scales II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Marcin Kurowski, JPL

CoChair: Yang Tian

4:45 PM

4D.1

Spectral Weak Temperature Gradient Simulation of Convection in OTREC

David James Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and Z. Stone and S. Sentic

5:00 PM

4D.2

Tropical Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP

Graham L. O'Donnell, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. A. Wing

5:15 PM

4D.3

Misoscale Vortices in the Eyewall of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

Emily Lucy, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero, B. H. Tang, and G. H. Bryan

5:30 PM

4D.4

Modifications to Three-Dimensional Turbulence Parameterization for Tropical Cyclone Simulation at Convection-Permitting Resolution

Gengjiao Ye, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; and Z. Xu and Y. Hui

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (2.5 MB)

5:45 PM

4D.5

Effects of the Horizontal Scales of the Cloud-Resolving Model on Tropical Cyclones in a Multiscale Modeling Framework

Kuan-Ting Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TPE, Taiwan; National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. M. Wu and W. T. Chen

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Impact of Cumulus Convection Parameterizations on 2022 Hurricane IAN and EARL Forecasts in the NOAA GFS

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Plenary Evening Talk & Reception

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

Chairs: Naoko Sakaeda, Oklahoma University; Pablo Santos, NWS

6:00 PM

Special Update on the Atmospheric Science / Meteorology Family Tree after a Decade of Its Rapid Growth

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Cossuth and J. Cham

Tuesday, 7 May 2024

8:00 AM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) V: Forecast Products and Evaluations

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Session 5A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics V

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Christopher W. Landsea, NHC; Thomas Knutson, GFDL

8:30 AM

5A.1

Projected Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes Under the Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and S. Henry

8:45 AM

5A.2

Warming Patterns in the CESM1 Large Ensemble and their Impacts on TC Projections

Julio T. Bacmeister, NCAR, Longmont, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Bates, P. Chang, D. Fu, K. A. Reed, and N. Rosenbloom

9:00 AM

5A.3

Climate Variability and Sea Surface Temperatures in the Intra-Americas Sea

Alethia Kielbasa, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. R. Martin, K. DeLong, K. Palmer, and G. Bromley

9:15 AM

5A.4

IRIS: The Imperial College Storm Model

Ralf S Toumi, Imperial College London, London, Greater London, United kingdom; and N. Sparks

9:30 AM

5A.5

High-Resolution Simulations of the Changes in Tropical Cyclone Inner Core and Outer Rainband Precipitation with Idealized Warming

Alyssa M Stansfield, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and K. L. Rasmussen

9:45 AM

5A.6

Reversed and Comparable Climate Impacts from Anthropogenic Aerosol and GHG on Global-scale TC Genesis Potential

Jian Cao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Techonology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Understanding Uncertainties in Projections of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis

Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Projections Linked to Uncertainty in Tropical Cloud Feedback

Session 5B

Tropical Cyclones Structure II

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jie Chen, Purdue University; John Paulo Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center

8:30 AM

5B.1

"Off-the-Clock" Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses

Kristen L. Corbosiero, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and X. Zhang, S. D. Ditchek, J. O. Piersante, W. XU, and R. G. Fovell

8:45 AM

5B.2

A Study of 9 km ECMWF Potential Vorticity Variation in Gulf Coast Tropical Cyclones

Daniel J Fortier Jr., Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and M. H. Hitchman and S. M. Rowe

9:00 AM

5B.3

Reconsideration of the Mass and Condensate Sources for the Tropical Cyclone Outflow

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and M. S. Fischer and M. E. O'Neill

9:15 AM

5B.4

Investigating Convective Scale Variability in Tropical Cyclone Rainband Clouds and Dynamics using Compact Raman Lidar Measurements

Ethan Murray, CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP), Boulder, CO; and J. P. Dunion, K. Karnauskas, Z. Wang, and J. A. Zhang

Manuscript (824.0 kB)

9:30 AM

5B.5

Assessing Radar Reflectivity in Tropical Cyclones: A Comparative Analysis from Satellite and Ground-based Radars

Zainab Ali, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas, K. M. Wood, and S. E. Zick

9:45 AM

5B.6

A Novel Method for Discerning the Contributions of Shallow and Deep Convection in the Evolution of Tropical Cyclones in Model Simulations, with Implications for Use with Satellite Observations

Daneisha Blair, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Hristova-Veleva, Z. Haddad, G. Liu, and S. Prasanth

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Session 5C

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., AOML

CoChair: Andrew Hazelton, AOML

8:30 AM

5C.1

Evaluating the Operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version 1 (HAFSv1) Models and Developing Products for Cloud AWIPS at the National Hurricane Center

Jonathan Martinez, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and W. A. Hogsett, K. Musgrave, D. A. Zelinsky, J. P. Cangialosi, B. Trabing, S. N. Stevenson, S. M. Camposano, A. Brammer, and M. Onderlinde

8:45 AM

5C.2

Evaluation of Forecasting Techniques for the Radius of Maximum Wind

Ben Trabing, UCAR/ National Hurricane Center, Wellington, CO; and A. Penny and C. L. Fritz

Handout (1.9 MB)

9:00 AM

5C.3

Modernizing the R2O and O2R machine at the National Hurricane Center

Stephanie N. Stevenson, NHC, Miami, FL; and W. A. Hogsett, A. Brammer, S. M. Camposano, and J. Martinez

9:15 AM

5C.4

Development of Wind Gust Parameterizations for Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Prediction Models

Lixin Lu, CIRA CSU, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Zhang, A. Hazelton, J. Kaplan, P. Santos Jr., and N. J. Carr

9:30 AM

5C.5

The National Hurricane Center Technology and Science Branch: From Research to Operations

David A. Zelinsky, NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Santos Jr., L. P. Alaka, S. M. Camposano, C. L. Fritz, D. Gaer, W. A. Hogsett, M. Onderlinde, M. Sardi, S. N. Stevenson, and R. Zelinsky

9:45 AM

5C.6

Implementing Forecaster Support Products for Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure from Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations

Jonathan L. Vigh, U.S. NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO; and A. J. DesRosiers, E. A. Hendricks, J. C. DeHart, M. M. Bell, C. M. Rozoff, PhD, and J. A. Zhang

Session 5D

Radiative Feedback in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Convection I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: James H. Ruppert Jr., Pennsylvania State University; Allison A. Wing

8:30 AM

5D.1

Cloud Radiative Heating and its Role in Controlling Oceanic Tropical Mesoscale Convective Lifecycles

Kathleen Schiro, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and L. Paccini and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

8:45 AM

5D.2

The Stratiform Radiation Effect on Tropical Organized Deep Convection

Emily Wynne Luschen, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

9:00 AM

5D.3

Tropical Cyclone-Radiation Interaction in NASA Reanalysis and Model Products as Compared to CloudSat Observations

Tsung-Yung Lee, Florida State University, TALLAHASSEE, FL; Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. A. Wing

Manuscript (1023.3 kB)

9:15 AM

5D.4

Extracting Three-dimensional Radiative Patterns Favoring Tropical Cyclogenesis with an Interpretable, Data-Driven Model

Frederick Iat-Hin Tam, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Vaud, Switzerland; University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Vaud, Switzerland; and T. Beucler and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

Manuscript (17.6 MB)

9:30 AM

5D.5

The Small-amplitude Dynamics of Spontaneous Tropical Cyclogenesis: Insights from Experiments with Amplified Longwave Radiative Feedback

Hao Fu, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and M. E. O'Neill

Handout (2.8 MB)

9:45 AM

5D.6

Impact of Solar Radiation on Low-Level and Mid-Level Vortices during Tropical Cyclogenesis

Yusheng Teng, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and X. Tang

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Session 6A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics VI

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Alyssa M Stansfield; Daniel M. Gilford, PhD, Rutgers University

10:45 AM

6A.1

Differences in Tropical Cyclone Activity Trends Between Basins (1980-2022) and Their Relationship to Environmental Parameters

Sarah Chapman, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and O. F. Guzman and H. Jiang

11:00 AM

6A.2

Tropical Cyclone Motion in the Western North Pacific under the Global Warming Trend: Exploring Moderated Changes and the Interplay of Synoptic-Scale Systems, Large-Scale Circulations, and SST Warming Patterns

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. C. Li

11:15 AM

6A.3

Poleward Migration As Global Warming’s Possible Self-Regulator to Restrain Future Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone’s Intensification

I-I Lin, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and S. J. Camargo, PhD, C. C. Lien, C. A. Shi, and J. P. Kossin

11:30 AM

6A.4

Multidecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed over the Western North Pacific

Yi-Peng Guo, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China

Manuscript (104.8 kB)

11:45 AM

6A.5

Monsoon precipitation biases in storm-resolving NextGEMS Earth System Models

Simona Bordoni, University of Trento, Italy, Trento, Italy; and A. M. Tompkins

12:00 PM

6A.6

Effect of Tropical Cyclones on the Northward Propagation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Western North Pacific

Sho Arakane, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu, M. Satoh, T. Miyakawa, and M. Watanabe

Session 6B

Tropical Cyclones Structure III

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Dandan Tao

CoChair: John Paulo Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center

10:45 AM

6B.1

Long-Lived Concentric Eyewalls in Tropical Cyclone

Buo-Fu Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and B. F. Chen

11:00 AM

6B.2

Applying a Novel Ice Crystal Trajectory Growth Model (ICTG) to Study Hurricane Eyewall Microphysics

Bruno Stephane Rojas, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and A. C. Didlake Jr., Y. Zhang, PhD, and J. Y. Harrington

11:15 AM

6B.3

In-situ Microphysical Observations of the Tropical Cyclone Mixed-Phase Region

Michael M. Bell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. DesRosiers, C. C. Nam, J. D. Doyle, J. P. Dunion, R. F. Rogers, and J. Zawislak

11:30 AM

6B.4

Relating Lightning Flash Characteristics to Convective Structure in Tropical Cyclones

Patrick Duran, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and C. J. Schultz, J. Martinez, E. C. Bruning, S. N. Stevenson, B. C. Trabing, PhD, and K. Mollette

11:45 AM

6B.5

Observed Trend of Inner-Core Depth and Simulated Energy Conversion Efficiency of Tropical Cyclones

Tsz-Kin Lai, Imperial College London, London, Greater London, United Kingdom; and R. S. Toumi

12:00 PM

6B.6

An Observational Study of Quasi-Periodic Lightning Activity in the Inner Core of Super Typhoon Hato (2017) Before Landfall

Yuanyuan Xu, Nanjing Univerisity, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China; and K. Zhao Sr.

Session 6C

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) VI (DA)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jason A. Sippel, CIMAS; Avichal Mehra, NOAA NWS NCEP EMC

10:45 AM

6C.1

Development of Direct Assimilation of Ground based Radar Reflectivity Observations for HWRF and HAFS: Methodology and Impact on Mesoscale Descending Inflow and Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Tsung-Han Li, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang and X. Lu

11:00 AM

6C.2

Recent Development of GOES-16 ABI All-Sky Radiances Data Assimilation for HAFS: System Description and Impact on Different Phases of Hurricane Laura (2020)

Yue Yang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang and X. Lu

11:15 AM

6C.3

Impact of Assimilating the Enhanced Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Hurricane Predictions with HAFS

Jing Cheng, EMC, College Park, MD

11:30 AM

6C.4

Investigating Spire GNSS RO Bending Angle Assimilation Impacts on HWRF-forecast Hurricane Earl (2022) Structural and Intensity Changes: A Case Study

William J. S. Miller, Univserity of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and Y. Chen, S. P. Ho, and X. Shao

11:45 AM

6C.5

Impact of Simultaneous Multiscale Data Assimilation with Scale- and Variable-Dependent Localization on Hurricane Analysis and Prediction in HAFS

Xu Lu, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Wang, J. Cheng, Y. Weng, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

12:00 PM

6C.6

Description and Evaluation of a Variational Method to Optimally Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Wind Radii at High Temporal Resolution

Eric A. Hendricks, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Vigh, M. M. Bell, and C. M. Rozoff, PhD

Session 6D

Radiative Feedback in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Convection II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: James H. Ruppert Jr.; Allison A. Wing

10:45 AM

6D.1

Radiative Feedbacks from Dry Environmental Air Accelerate Tropical Cyclogenesis

Shun-Nan Wu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. J. Soden

11:00 AM

6D.2

Predictability of Hurricane Irma's (2017) Genesis: The Impact of Initial Moisture and Cloud Radiative Feedbacks

Xingchao Chen, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. M. Hartman

11:15 AM

6D.3

Longwave Radiative Effects Beyond the Initial Intensification Stage of Tropical Cyclones

Yi Dai, LBNL, Lafayette, CA; LBNL, berkeley, CA; and I. N. Williams, M. Torn, and W. D. Collins

11:30 AM

6D.4

Cloud-Radiation Feedback Facilitates the Secondary Eyewall Formation of Tropical Cyclones

Yi-Fan Wang, Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, 32, China

11:45 AM

6D.5

The Role of Diurnal Cloud-Radiative Forcing on the Overland Intensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

Colin Welty, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK; and R. M. Frost and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

12:00 PM

6D.6

Impact of Cloud-Radiation Processes on Tropical Cyclone Development in Sheared Environments

Jannetta C Richardson, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and R. G. Fovell

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Session 7A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics VII

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Andreas H. Fink; Eric S. Blake, NHC

1:45 PM

7A.1

The Crucial Role of Sea Surface Temperature Warming Patterns in Future Projections of Extreme Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Sensitivity

Ming Zhao, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Knutson

2:00 PM

7A.2

The Effects of High Horizontal Resolution on Tropical Cyclones’ Potential Intensity and Upper Ocean Heat Content in the Community Earth System Model

Jinjun Liu, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. Korty

Manuscript (3.5 MB)

2:15 PM

7A.3

Observed and Modeled Trends in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictability

Jhordanne Jones, PhD, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Chavas

2:30 PM

7A.4

Dependence of Global Tropical Cyclones on the Tropical Pacific Mean State in HighResMIP Simulations

Yi Xia, Columbia university, New York, NY; LDEO, New York, NY; and C. Y. Lee, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo

2:45 PM

7A.5

Observed Trend in the Trade Wind Inversion Height and a Possible Dynamic Constraint on its Equatorward Slope

Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

3:00 PM

7A.6

Deceleration of Isentropic Overturning Circulation In Tropics: Implications for Mechanical Efficiency of Moist Convection in a Warming Climate

Mu Hua Chien, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY; and O. Pauluis

Session 7B

Tropical Cyclones - Intensity

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Stephanie N. Stevenson, NHC; Falko Judt, NCAR

1:45 PM

7B.1

Effects of Environmental Inertial Stability on Energy Cycle and Development of Tropical Cyclones

Yuanlong Li, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China

2:00 PM

7B.2

A Unified Time-Dependent Theory of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Yuqing Wang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI

2:15 PM

7B.3

Role of Shallow and Moderate Convection in the Tropical Cyclone Intensification Process

Margaret E. Kieper, FIU, Miami, FL; and H. WILLOUGHBY, A. Hazelton, G. J. Alaka Jr., and C. W. Landsea

2:30 PM

7B.4

A Study of Atmospheric Factor Affecting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Mid-Latitude Region in East Asia Using the WRF Model: Focusing on the Jet Stream

GUNWOO DO, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, 48, South korea; and H. S. Kim

Manuscript (430.3 kB)

2:45 PM

7B.5

On the Intensity Decay of Tropical Cyclones Over the Ocean

Min Li, Imperial College London, London, England, United kingdom

3:00 PM

7B.6

Quantifying the Environmental Effects on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Using a Simple Dynamically Based Dynamical System Model

Jing Xu, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijng, China; and Y. Wang

Session 7C

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) VII (Ensembles & Products)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Aaron J. Poyer; Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR

1:45 PM

7C.1

Expansion of Ensemble-based Sensitivity to TC Hazard Forecasts

Ryan D. Torn, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

2:00 PM

7C.2

HAFS Ensemble in AWS Cloud for 2023 Hurricane Real Time Forecasts

Jiayi Peng, AXIOM at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Zhang, R. Panda, W. Wang, B. Liu, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, A. J. Poyer, W. Komaromi, and J. Anderson

2:15 PM

7C.3

Incorporating Tropical Cyclogenesis Guidance Tools (Probabilistic and Spacial) for Verification at the National Hurricane Center

Philippe P. Papin, NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi, E. S. Blake, D. J. Halperin, R. E. Hart, and A. Brammer

2:30 PM

7C.4

Understanding Predictability of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic Ocean

Shun Yiu Brett Chung, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg, Germany; and A. H. Fink and M. Riemer

2:45 PM

7C.5

Leveraging Ensemble Prediction Developments in HAFS to Evaluate Tropical Cyclone Hazards

Kelly E. Ryan, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and J. Poterjoy

3:00 PM

7C.6

Influence of Meteorological Forcing Resolution on Simulations and Future Projections of Storm Surge in Hurricane Katrina

Derrick K. Danso, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. M. Patricola

Session 7D

The Air-Sea Transition Zone I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Johna E. Rudzin, Naval Research Lab, Monterey; Chibueze Nnamdi Oguejiofor, University of Notre Dame

1:45 PM

7D.1

Re-Imagining Sea-Spray Generation in Extreme Winds

Brian K. Haus, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and D. G. Ortiz-Suslow, S. Mehta, M. Curcic, P. Tan, A. V. Soloviev, and B. Vanderplow

2:00 PM

7D.2

Modeling the Impact of Surfactants on Sea Spray Generation: A Possible Change in Regime at the Air-Sea Interface Under Major Tropical Cyclones?

Breanna Vanderplow, Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, FL; and A. V. Soloviev

2:15 PM

7D.3

Physics-Resolving Simulations of Spray Fluxes in the High-Wind Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

David H. Richter, Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN; and G. H. Bryan, J. Sun, J. M. Dennis, S. Mickelson, and C. Wainwright

2:30 PM

7D.4

Constraining Sea Spray Heat Fluxes in High Winds Using Direct Covariance Heat Flux Observations

Benjamin W. Barr, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and C. Sauvage, H. Seo, C. A. Clayson, and J. B. Edson

2:45 PM

7D.5

On the Modulation of Shorter Windwaves by Longer Waves under Extreme Wind Forcing

Peisen Tan, RSMAS, MIAMI, FL; and B. Haus, M. Curcic, M. Scola, S. Mehta, A. W. Smith, S. wray, and W. Drennan

3:00 PM

7D.6

Ocean Wave Data Assimilation Impact on Land Falling Tropical Cyclone Forecast

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cummings, J. Veeramony, J. S. Tsu, L. Centurioni, T. Paluszkiewicz, M. Schonau, and E. R. Sanabia

Handout (2.2 MB)

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

On the Interpretation of Potential Vorticity Variability in Tropical Cyclones in ECMWF High Resolution Operational Forecast Analyses

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Evaluations of Actual and Adjusted Wind-Pressure Relationship of Tropical Cyclone Using Aircraft-Assisted Best Track Data

Sho Arakane, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; and T. Horinouchi

Dvorak Analysis Challenges during Rapid Intensification

Jonathan Huynh, JTWC, Honolulu, HI; and J. Rae and L. Cowan

Handout (1.0 MB)

Radiative Feedback in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Convection

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Dropsonde-Derived Moist Static Energy Variability in Atlantic Hurricanes

Michael V Kopelman, Florida State University, Columbia, SC; and A. A. Wing and J. Carstens

Cloud-Radiative Effects on the Coastal Diurnal Cycle Over the Maritime Continent

Hrag Najarian, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. H. Ruppert Jr. and N. Sakaeda

Cloud-Radiation Feedback Prevents Tropical Cyclones from Reaching Higher Intensities

Ji Nie, Peking University, Beijing, 11, China

Diurnal Variability in the Energetics and Efficiency of the Tropical Cyclone Heat Engine

Laurel Regibeau-Rockett, Stanford Univ., San Francisco, CA; and M. E. O'Neill

Handout (2.6 MB)

Modeling Studies of the Radiative and Cloud Microphysical effects of the Saharan Dust on Tropical Convections

Enhancements to Cloud Overlap Radiative Effects for Tropical Cyclone Prediction in HAFS

John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and M. J. Iacono, M. Biswas, K. M. Newman, B. Liu, and Z. Zhang

The Stratiform Radiation Effect on Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Emily Wynne Luschen, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. H. Ruppert Jr., S. N. Wu, and Y. Zhang, PhD

Did the Low Level Jet or Diurnal Radiative Forcing Have the Greatest Impact on Tropical Storm Erin’s (2007) Overland Intensification?

Robby Michael Frost, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Welty and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

The Relationship Between Stratiform Clouds, Longwave Cloud–Radiation Forcing, and Column Moistening

Observational Insights into Saharan Dust Impacts on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclones

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A Numerical Simulation of the Rapid Weakening of Typhoon Trami (2018) using the Dynamical Initialization with the Assimilation of Relative Humidity Reproduced From T-PARCII and Himawari-8 Satellite Imagery

Jae-Deok LEE, Kongju National University, Kongju, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. C. Chang and K. Ito

The Role of Urbanization in Modifying Post-Landfall Hurricane Rainbands

ANKUR KUMAR, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA IN HUNTSVILLE, HUNTSVILLE, AL; and U. S. Nair

Paper 15C.4 will also be presented as poster 60

Maintenance Mechanisms of the Concentric Eyewall Structure of Typhoon Lekima (2019): Axisymmetric Perspective

Ming-Jen Yang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan

Understanding the Dynamical Changes by an Artificial Cold Pool on an Approaching Typhoon using the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM)

Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo Kashiwa Campus, Kashiwa-shi, 12, Japan; and M. Satoh

The Role of the Lower-Free Troposphere in Tropical Cyclone Quasi-Equilibrium

Jack Hatfield Skari, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and F. Ahmed and J. D. Neelin

Analysis of Retrospective Probabilistic Storm Surge Forecasts for Hurricane Iniki (1992)

Benjamin C Trabing, PhD, UCAR/ National Hurricane Center, Wellington, CO; and C. L. Fritz

Handout (908.7 kB)

Lower limit of the radius of maximum winds in a diagnostic model

Yu Liu, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Beijing, Beijing, China

A Toy Model for the Global Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones

Yufeng Zhou, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Beijing, 11, China; and Y. Lin

Handout (2.1 MB)

Relating the Frequency of Tropical Cyclogenesis Events to the Scale of Precursor Disturbances in Aquaplanet Simulations with Different Horizontal Grid Spacings

Jonathan Martinez, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and R. Rios-Berrios

Development and Implementation of GEFS Based Probabilities for the Tropical Cyclone Logistical Guidance for Genesis (TCLOGG)

Ryan Michael Remondelli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. Halperin and R. E. Hart

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting with Three Multiple Linear Regression Models and Random Forest Classification

Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

Sources of Tropical Cyclone Track Bifurcation in the Coamps-TC and GFS Ensembles

Kevin Prince, National Research Council, Washington, DC, MD; and J. R. Moskaitis, J. D. Doyle, and W. Komaromi

Assessing the Microphysical Characteristics and Updraft Kinematics of Eyewall Convection in an Idealized Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone Undergoing Intensity Vacillation Cycles

Jonathan Martinez, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and P. Duran, C. J. Schultz, E. C. Bruning, S. N. Stevenson, and B. Trabing

The Role of Environmental Moisture on Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure

Kayleigh Addington, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and S. E. Zick

Analyzing the Hurricane History of Charlotte Harbor, Florida using Observed and Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Nicholas S. Grondin, PhD, University of Tampa, Tampa, FL; and D. A. Stuber

African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis Observed by CYGNSS and ASCAT

Brian D. McNoldy, University of Miami Rosenstiel School, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar

Estimating the Impact of Assimilating AEOLUS Winds and Mesoscale Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts: A Case Study with Hurricane Dorian

Alex G. Libardoni, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and S. J. Fletcher and M. Zupanski

Moist Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

Ipshita Dey, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA; and M. E. O'Neill

Assessment of the LMDZ model to the dynamic and thermodynamic propeties of cyclogenesis in the tropical Atlantic ocean and on the West African coast

78A

Investigating the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Associated with Recent US Hurricanes

Ishrat Dollan, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. Reed

Methods for Objective Evaluation of Near-Surface Wind Structure Forecasts from Dynamical Models

Storm-Scale and Fine-Scale Boundary Layer Structures of Tropical Cyclones Simulated with the WRF-LES Framework

Impacts of Hurricane Katrina due to Storm Surge and Topographic Conditions: Why Only Wind Used to Categorize Hurricanes?

Fallon Mears, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and M. Costa

Investigating the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Lightning in Pre-depressions Ida (2021) and Idalia (2023) Using the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Nicholas Mesa, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and B. Trabing, M. M. Bell, A. Brammer, P. Duran, P. J. Klotzbach, K. Musgrave, and S. N. Stevenson

Manuscript (703.1 kB)

Southern California Tropical Storms

Jay S. Hobgood, weatherUSA, Dublin, OH

Manuscript (4.0 kB)

Handout (483.3 kB)

The Stochastic Spin-up of Vorticity in Spontaneous Tropical Cyclogenesis

Hao Fu, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and M. E. O'Neill

Handout (1005.3 kB)

Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Outer-Size Expansion Rate on Sea Surface Temperature: Observations, Reanalysis, and Idealized Simulations

Danyang Wang, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Waves on the Development and Intensity of Hurricanes in the North Atlantic

Chunyong Jung, ANL, Lemont, IL; ANL, Lemont, IL; and C. Huang, J. Wang, P. Xue, W. J. Pringle, and V. R. Kotamarthi

Formation Mechanisms of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific: Circulation Patterns and Underlying Physical Processes

Ruifen Zhan, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and Y. Gu

Assessing the Feasibility of Small Satellite Observations of Gravity Waves in the Upper Atmosphere Induced by Tropical Cyclones

CIRA Efforts to Expand the Availability and Use of Tropical Cyclone Centered Microwave Imagery

Alex G. Libardoni, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and M. N. Razin

A Global All-weather Sea Surface Temperature Data Product from AMSR2

Suleiman Alsweiss, NOAA, College Park, MD; Global Science & Technology Inc. (GST), Greenbelt, MD; NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, MD; and Z. Jelenak and P. S. Chang

Poster Session 2/Coffee Break

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Session 8A

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics VIII

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Maria Gehne, CIRES; Yi-Hsuan Huang

4:45 PM

8A.1

Long-Term Hindcast of Extreme Sea Levels Using Unstructured Grid Models and Parametric TC Models

Shohei Ohata, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 26, Japan; and T. Shimura, T. Miyashita, and N. Mori

5:00 PM

8A.2

Process-Oriented Diagnostics for Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances in Climate Models Using the Column-Integrated Moist Static Energy Variance Budget

Jarrett Starr, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. A. Wing, T. Y. Lee, S. J. Camargo, PhD, D. Kim, and J. Moon

Manuscript (400.0 kB)

5:15 PM

8A.3

Historical and Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones and their Impacts in the Australian Region

Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC, Australia

5:30 PM

8A.4

Numerical Weather Prediction of Hurricane Florence (2018) and Potential Climate Impacts through Thermodynamic Modification: Synoptic and Mesoscale Dynamics

Jackson Tyler Wiles, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and L. Liu

5:45 PM

8A.5

How Well do High-resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) Simulate Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal?

Shammi Akhter, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United kingdom

Session 8B

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate and Weather

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Liguang Wu

CoChair: Haikun Zhao

4:45 PM

8B.1

Decrease of Sensible Heat Flux over the Tibetan Plateau: Numerical Simulation

Liguang Wu, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; and W. Chen and J. Liang

5:00 PM

8B.3

Can Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth Influence the Interannual Association Between Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons?

Haikun Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 32, China

5:15 PM

8B.4

Opposite Skills of Engpi and Dgpi in Depicting Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific

Chao Wang, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 32, China

5:30 PM

8B.5

The Impact of Soil Moisture-Surface Temperature Coupling on the Compound Heat Wave Event in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in August 2022

Jinhua Yu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and C. Cui

8B.2

The use of Potential Vorticity on understanding of the Tibetan Plateau Surface Thermodynamic Forcing in Climate Dynamics and Climate Modeling

Session 8C

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sim D. Aberson, Science History Institute

CoChair: Roger T. Edson

4:45 PM

8C.1

My 45-years as an Operational User of the Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensification Technique, a Perspective

Roger T. Edson, (retired), Tamuning, Guam

5:00 PM

8C.2

From Vern's Vision to Computer Vision: The Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation from Satellite Data

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS, madison, WI; CIMSS, Univ. of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and D. C. Herndon, T. L. Olander, J. D. Hawkins, G. Chirokova, A. J. Wimmers, and S. Griffin

5:15 PM

8C.3

An Analysis of TAFB's Dvorak Estimates

Andrew B. Hagen, NHC, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea

5:30 PM

8C.4

Leveraging Subjective Dvorak Technique Cloud Patterns to Understand Tropical Cyclone Evolution

Christopher Slocum, STAR, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Knaff

5:45 PM

8C.5

The Near Real Time Role of the DMSP Sensors in Monitoring Global Tropical Cyclones

Jeff D. Hawkins, Retired, Carmel, CA; and C. S. Velden, A. J. Wimmers, D. C. Herndon, T. L. Olander, S. Griffin, S. D. Miller, T. Lee, F. J. Turk, and J. Cossuth

Session 8D

Air-Sea Transition Zone II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Lev B. Looney; Joshua B. Wadler

4:45 PM

8D.1

Multiscale Processes in Air-Sea Coupling: Observations and Modeling of High-Impact Weather

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

5:00 PM

8D.2

Variations in Momentum Flux and Surface Drag Estimates in Hurricane Lee (2023)

Kayleigh Addington, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and J. E. Rudzin, D. H. Richter, L. Centurioni, and M. Schonau

5:15 PM

8D.3

Virtual Sampling of the Tropical Air-Sea Transition Zone Using Coordinated Uncrewed Systems

Edoardo Mazza, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and C. Zhang

5:30 PM

8D.4

The Role of Air-Sea Interactions in the Intensity Change of Sheared Tropical Cyclones Utilizing a Dataset of Co-located Aircraft Expendable Bathythermographs and Dropsondes

Benjamin Jeffrey Henkel, Mississippi State University, Tarpon Springs, FL; and J. E. Rudzin, A. E. Mercer, J. Dyer, E. R. Sanabia, S. R. Jayne, C. R. Densmore, J. Zawislak, J. B. Wadler, J. A. Zhang, and J. J. Cione, PhD

5:45 PM

8D.5

Improving Operational Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Suite and Situational Awareness with Better Metrics of Ocean-TC interaction

John Kaplan, NOAA, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, G. Foltz, D. Molenar, M. DeMaria, I. Ebert-Uphoff, J. Darlow, S. N. Stevenson, and W. A. Hogsett

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Panel Discussion on Career Development in Tropical Meteorology

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

Panelists: Pablo Santos, NWS; Allison A. Wing, Pennsylvania State University; Kate Musgrave, CIRA; John M. Henderson, AER; David Ryglicki, NRL

Facilitators: Naoko Sakaeda, Oklahoma University; Quinton A. Lawton, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

7:00 PM-8:00 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Student and Postdoc Mixer

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

Wednesday, 8 May 2024

8:00 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Recent Advances in Theory, Modeling and Observations of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Session 9A

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Maria Gehne, CIRES; Juliana Dias, CIRES

8:30 AM

9A.1

Slow Tropical Waves Stabilize the Hadley Cell through Horizontal Moisture Advection

Ángel Francisco Adames Corraliza, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

8:45 AM

9A.2

Investigating the Role of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves on the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon

Sadiksha Rai, PhD, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Sakaeda

9:00 AM

9A.3

The Relationship Between Convectively Coupled Waves and the East Pacific ITCZ

Fouzia Fahrin, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. O. Gonzalez, B. Chrisler, and J. P. Stachnik

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

9:15 AM

9A.4

Coupling Between the First and Second Baroclinic Modes within Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Mu-Ting Chien, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim

Handout (2.9 MB)

9:30 AM

9A.5

The Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Global Simulations with Modified Wave Amplitudes

Quinton Lawton, University of Miami, Miami, FL; University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and R. Rios-Berrios, S. Majumdar, Ph.D., R. Emerton, and L. Magnusson

9:45 AM

9A.6

Improving the Tropical Modes of Variability in CAM through a Stochastic Mulitcloud/Unified Shallow-Deep Convection scheme

Kumar Roy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider, R. P. M. Krishna, and B. B. Goswami

Session 9B

Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls I

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric A. Hendricks

Cochairs: Christopher M. Rozoff, PhD, Research Applications Laboratory/NCAR; Xiaomin Chen

Observational Study on Wind Profiles and Wind Characteristic Parameters of Typhoons over Coastland and Coastal Sea of China

8:30 AM

9B.1

Airborne Doppler Radar Observations of Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Kinematic Structure and Evolution During Landfall

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang

8:45 AM

9B.2

Inland Evolution of Near-Surface Winds During Tropical Cyclone Landall

Cameron Masiello, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

9:00 AM

9B.3

A Surface-Wind Speed Conversion Technique Using WSR-88D Doppler Weather Radar Velocity Data During Tropical Cyclone Landfall Events

Stacy Stewart, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL

Manuscript (4.2 MB)

9:15 AM

9B.4

The Wind Profile Characters in the Skyscrapers Region during Typhoon Muifa (2022): a Lidar Observation Study

jie tang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA, shanghai, China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,China, Xuhui, Shanghai, China; Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and Z. SUN

9:30 AM

9B.5

On the Myth of the Logarithmic Surface Layer during Hurricane Landfalls: Insights from Observations and Large-Eddy Simulations

Xiaomin Chen, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and Z. W. Leffler

9:45 AM

9B.6

Quantifying the Impact of Land Surface Roughness on the Hurricane Wind Structure Before Landfall

Mansur Ali Jisan, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and I. Ginis and K. Gao

Session 9C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Moderate Shear I

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: C. Chelsea Nam

CoChair: Samantha Nebylitsa

8:30 AM

9C.1

The Weakening of Intense Tropical Cyclones Due to Shallow Layers of Vertical Wind Shear

Peter M Finocchio, NRL, Monterey, CA

8:45 AM

9C.2

An Analysis of the Unexpected Weakening of Hurricane Delta (2020) Using Coamps-TC and Aircraft Observations

Nicholas E Johnson, University at Albany - SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Moskaitis, B. H. Tang, K. L. Corbosiero, and Y. Jin

9:00 AM

9C.3

Radial Ventilation and the Rapid Intensity Changes of Hurricane Sam (2021)

Brian H. Tang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. Rios-Berrios and J. A. Zhang

9:15 AM

9C.4

Tropical Cyclone Boundary-Layer Asymmetries in a Tilt-Following Framework

Chau Lam Yu, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and R. G. Fovell

9:30 AM

9C.5

Adapting RKW Theory to the Study of Tropical Cyclone Rainband Convection

Nicholas R. Barron, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. C. Didlake Jr.

9:45 AM

9C.6

The Impact of Terrain-induced Flow on Local Vertical Wind Shear during Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Observation from Typhoon Chanthu (2021)

Wei-Ting Fang, CWA, Taipei, Taiwan; and P. L. Chang and M. J. Yang

Session 9D

Air-Sea Transition Zone III/Innovative Observing Technologies I

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Benjamin W. Barr, University of Washington; Renee (Richardson) Keller, OAR

8:30 AM

9D.1

Evaluation of the Ocean Model Components in HAFSv1 during the 2023 Real-Time Experiments

John D. Steffen, SAIC, College Park, MD; and M. Aristizabal, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, and A. Mehra

8:45 AM

9D.2

Investigation of the Air-Sea Interaction Processes Simulated with a 1/12-d Regional MOM6 Coupled to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

Hyun-Sook Kim, NOAA/OAR/AOML, Miami, FL; NOAA/OAR/AOML, MIAMI, FL

9:00 AM

9D.3

The Impacts of Ocean Cooling and Ocean Surface Waves on Typhoon Modeling for 2018 Typhoon JEBI

Koki Iida, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and N. Mori, T. Shimura, and T. Miyashita

9:15 AM

9D.4

Results of ALAMO Ocean Wave Measurements in Four Major Hurricanes

Elizabeth Sanabia, University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA; and S. R. Jayne, A. Ekholm, C. R. Densmore, and M. Zimmerman

9:30 AM

9D.5

Validation of Saildrone Hurricane Observations with Coordinated Measurements from Buoys, Satellites, and Aircraft

Lev B. Looney, University of Miami/NOAA AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and G. Foltz, C. Zhang, A. Savarin, A. M. Chiodi, C. Edwards, D. Zhang, E. Mazza, E. Cokelet, E. F. Burger, F. Bringas, H. Schulz, H. S. Kim, J. A. Zhang, N. H. Chi, J. P. Dunion, K. Englert, S. D. Aberson, D. C. Petraitis, W. Burnett, T. W. Ruff, C. Jackson, S. R. Helfrich, and I. Houghton

9:45 AM

9D.6

Coastal Ocean Thermal Structure and Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Ida over the Western Louisiana Shelf

Senam Tsei, University Of Southern Mississippi, Stennis Space Center, MS; and S. Howden

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research II

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Session 10A

Madden-Julian Oscillation and Intraseasonal Variability I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Alex Omar Gonzalez; Victor C. Mayta

10:45 AM

10A.1

Why are the Slowest MJO Events Weaker than Those in its Normal Range?

Paul E. Roundy, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. M. De Castro

11:00 AM

10A.2

Exploring Solutions of Simple Linear Models of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Spencer Ressel, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim and P. Blossey

11:15 AM

10A.3

The Role of Precursor Disturbances on the Modulation of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Geraldine Neljon Emlaw, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim

11:30 AM

10A.4

Effects of Tropical Land on the Propagation and Intensity of a Boreal Intraseasonal Oscillation Event

Yubo Kong, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Y. Zhou and S. Wang

11:45 AM

10A.5

The Seasonality of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Teleconnections

Tatiana Nicole Esteva-Ingram, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Sakaeda

12:00 PM

10A.6

Environmental Sources of Error in the Navy ESPC MJO Forecasts and MJO-Teleconnections

Stephanie S. Rushley, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and M. Janiga and C. A. Reynolds

A Moisture Mode Analysis of Counterintuitive Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

Evolution of MJO-Associated Moist Static Energy over Small Tropical Islands Using in Situ Observations

Session 10B

Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls II

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Xiaomin Chen

Cochairs: Christopher M. Rozoff, PhD, Research Applications Laboratory/NCAR; Eric A. Hendricks

10:45 AM

10B.1

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Two-Dimensional Wind Forecasts

Matthew Onderlinde, NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, P. Santos Jr., L. Lu, A. Brammer, K. Musgrave, G. Demaria, and J. Rogers

11:00 AM

10B.2

Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Gale-Wind Field after Landfall in Models with Varying Resolution

Jie Chen, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and K. Gao, L. M. Harris, and T. P. Marchok

11:15 AM

10B.3

Toward Improving the Wind Field Used in the P-Surge Probabilistic Storm Surge Model

Andrew Penny, UCAR, Boulder, CO; NHC, Miami, FL; and L. P. Alaka, W. Booth, M. DeMaria, C. L. Fritz, P. Santos Jr., and A. Taylor

11:30 AM

10B.4

What Differentiates Tornadic From Non-Tornadic Tropical Cyclone Supercells?

Laura Helock, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and J. M. Peters

11:45 AM

10B.5

Diurnal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes Strengthens with Increasing Distance from the Coast

Benjamin A. Schenkel, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. M. Sloan, M. C. Brown, J. H. Ruppert Jr., R. Edwards, and S. M. Waugh

Handout (5.2 MB)

12:00 PM

10B.6

Utilizing Velocity Azimuth Displays to Analyze Ocean-to-Land Differences in the Tropical Cyclone Wind Profile and Their Impacts on Tornadogenesis

Elizabeth Seiler, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

Session 10C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Moderate Shear II

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter M Finocchio

CoChair: Dandan Tao

10:45 AM

10C.1

Observed Characteristics of Weak Tropical Cyclones Evolving Toward Alignment

George R. Alvey III, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, M. S. Fischer, R. F. Rogers, P. D. Reasor, D. S. Nolan, and J. P. Dunion

11:00 AM

10C.2

Aircraft Observations of the Formation of an Aligned Circulation in Weak Tropical Cyclones

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. S. Fischer, G. R. Alvey III, and P. D. Reasor

11:15 AM

10C.3

Vortex Alignment during the Rapid Intensification of the Simulated Typhoon Rammasun (2014) in Moderate Vertical Shear

Yecheng Feng, Fudan University, Shanghai, 31, China; and L. Wu

11:30 AM

10C.4

Balanced Evolution of the Vortex Tilt of Simulated Tropical Cyclones in a Sheard Environment

Xingyang Zhou, Institute of Atmospheric science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Fudan University, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and L. Wu

11:45 AM

10C.5

Understanding the Combined Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification to Vortex Structure and Vertical Wind Shear

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Finocchio and J. D. Doyle

12:00 PM

10C.6

Two Types of Transitions to Relatively Fast Intensification in Tropical Cyclone Simulations with Weak to Moderate Environmental Vertical Wind Shear

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

Session 10D

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Cheyenne Danielle Stienbarger; Leah Nicole Hopson

10:45 AM

10D.1

Ocean-Atmosphere Observations from Uncrewed Saildrones during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Summary and Initial Results

Gregory Foltz, NOAA, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang, A. Savarin, A. M. Chiodi, C. Edwards, D. Zhang, E. Mazza, E. Cokelet, E. F. Burger, F. Bringas, H. Schulz, H. S. Kim, J. A. Zhang, L. B. Looney, and N. H. Chi

11:00 AM

10D.2

Evaluating HAFS with Hurricane-Penetrating Uncrewed Surface Vehicles and Other Components of the In situ Observing System

Andrew M. Chiodi, NOAA, Seattle, WA; PMEL, Seattle, WA; Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. Foltz, C. Zhang, H. S. Kim, F. Bringas, J. A. Zhang, D. Zhang, C. Edwards, E. F. Burger, E. Cokelet, G. Goni, A. Savarin, E. Mazza, H. Schulz, L. B. Looney, and N. H. Chi

11:15 AM

10D.3

Direct Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements of Wind Stress Under Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

Dongxiao Zhang, CICOES/University of Washington and NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA; and G. Foltz, C. Zhang, C. W. Fairall, J. A. Zhang, H. S. Kim, A. Mehra, A. M. Chiodi, M. F. Cronin, E. J. Thompson, J. Thomson, L. B. Looney, N. H. Chi, H. Schulz, A. Savarin, and E. Mazza

11:30 AM

10D.4

Hurricane Coherent Turbulence Structure from Saildrone Uncrewed Surface Vehicle Observations

Jun A. Zhang, CIMAS/University of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Foltz, C. Zhang, D. Zhang, A. M. Chiodi, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, and L. B. Looney

11:45 AM

10D.5

Uncrewed Aircraft Observations of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Eye and Eyewall of Intense Hurricane Ian (2022)

GUO LIN, NOAA, Miami, FL; CIMAS/University of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, J. J. Cione, PhD, R. J. Dobosy, J. B. Wadler, and J. Cione

12:00 PM

10D.6

Supporting the 2023 NOAA CHAOS Hurricane Field Campaign with GeoCollaborate

Dave F. Jones, StormCenter Communications, Halethorpe, MD

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Session 11A

Madden-Julian Oscillation and Intraseasonal Variability II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Alex Omar Gonzalez; Victor C. Mayta

1:45 PM

11A.1

Issues related to S2S and MJO predictability

Chidong Zhang, PMEL, Seattle, WA

2:00 PM

11A.2

Evaluation of Equatorial Westerly Wind Events in the Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Models

Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. DeMott, J. Cui, and E. D. Maloney

2:15 PM

11A.3

Understanding Long-Term Variability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Leveraging in-Situ Observations

Juliana Dias, NOAA, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. Gehne and G. N. Kiladis

2:30 PM

11A.4

Changes in Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity and Easterly Waves in a Warmer Climate

Amanda Bowden, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO; and K. Karnauskas and E. D. Maloney

2:45 PM

11A.5

Impact of MJO Propagation Speed on Active Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Periods

Kurt A. Hansen, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and M. Janiga, S. Majumdar, Ph.D., and B. Kirtman

3:00 PM

11A.6

Potential Strengthening of Madden-Julian Oscillation Circulations with Enhanced Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Patrick T Haertel, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and Y. Liang

Session 11B

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics IX

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University

CoChair: Pablo Santos, NWS

1:45 PM

11B.1

Long-Range Prediction of the Tropical Cyclone Frequency Landfalling in China Using Thermocline Temperature Anomalies at Different Longitude

Chunlei LEI Liu, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China; and R. Zheng, R. Bao, N. Cao, and L. Jin

2:00 PM

11B.2

Long-term Meridional Variation of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclone over the Western North Pacific

Dasom Ryu, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, busan, 48, South korea; and H. S. Kim

Manuscript (415.0 kB)

2:15 PM

11B.3

Recent Global Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Rain Area

King Heng Lau, Imperial College London, LONDON, United kingdom; and R. S. Toumi

2:30 PM

11B.4

Trends of Tropical Cyclone-induced Extreme Precipitation in East Asia and Their Causes

Cheuk Ki Jack Law, University of Leeds, Leeds, United kingdom; and G. C. Hegerl and N. Freychet

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

2:45 PM

11B.5

Large-Scale Environmental Control of Tropical Cyclone over Lifetime Maximum Intensity Projections

Chanh Q Kieu, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and S. J. Camargo, PhD and T. A. Vu

3:00 PM

11B.6

Grey Swan Tropical Cyclones Simulated in Kilometer-Scale Earth System Models

Colin M. Zarzycki, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

Session 11C

Rapid Intensification I

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David S. Nolan

CoChair: Ting-Yu Cha

1:45 PM

11C.1

Characteristics of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region

Joseph Benedict Courtney, BoM, West Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Paterson, M. Boterhoven, and C. Earl-Spurr

Handout (1.3 MB)

2:00 PM

11C.2

Examining the Evolution of Precipitation and Convective Features in Rapidly Intensifying and Slowly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Using 16 Years of TRMM Data

Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL; Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and X. Wang

2:15 PM

11C.3

Deterministic Rapid Intensity Forecast Guidance for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Area of Responsibility

Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA

2:30 PM

11C.4

The Performance of Operational Regional Dynamical Model Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and D. P. Stern

2:45 PM

11C.5

Impacts of Off-Center Coefficient，Model Horizontal Resolution and Time Step on Modelling the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon ‘Chanthu' in 2021

Suhong Ma, CEMC (CMA Earth System Modelling and Prediction Centre), BEIJING, China; CEMC, BEIJING, BEJING, China; and Y. SU Sr.

3:00 PM

11C.6

Analyzing the Onset of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification with an Adjoint-Derived Ensemble

Zoe A. Zibton, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Session 11D

Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research III

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Cheyenne Danielle Stienbarger; Renee (Richardson) Keller, OAR

1:45 PM

11D.1

Validation of the Aircraft-Based Significant Wave Height Measurements within Tropical Cyclones

Joseph W Sapp, Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; and Z. Jelenak, P. S. Chang, C. Bjorland, C. Shoup, L. B. Looney, L. Centurioni, M. Schonau, and G. Foltz

2:00 PM

11D.2

Airborne W-band Radar Applications in Marine Boundary Layer and Hurricane Environments

Elizabeth J. Thompson, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. W. Fairall, H. Chen, C. R. Williams, J. P. Dunion, and J. S. Reid

2:15 PM

11D.3

Apparent Sea Surface Wind Sudden Decreases in the Presence of Heavy Rain or Graupel in or Near Tropical Cyclone Eyewalls Observed By the Airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)

Ivan PopStefanija, ProSensing Inc., Amherst, MA; and P. Black

2:30 PM

11D.4

A New Method to Retrieve Circulations in Tropical Cyclones from Single-Doppler Radar Observations Based on the Helmholtz Decomposition

Satoki Tsujino, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Horinouchi and U. Shimada

2:45 PM

11D.5

Characterization of Vertical Thermodynamic Structures in Tropical Cyclones from GNSS Radio Occultation

Kevin J. Nelson, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; and C. O. Ao

3:00 PM

11D.6

Tropical Convection through the Lens of the Incus Mission

Derek J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. C. Van Den Heever, Z. Haddad, S. Tanelli, K. L. Rasmussen, G. L. Stephens, Y. Kim, J. Bukowski, A. M. Burzynski, R. Chase, B. Dolan, S. W. Freeman, P. N. Gatlin, L. D. Grant, G. J. Huffman, P. Kollias, G. Leung, Z. J. Luo, G. G. Mace, P. J. Marinescu, M. G. Morris, P. Partain, W. A. Petersen, S. Prasanth, S. C. Reising, R. Schulte, C. J. Schumacher, I. Singh, R. L. Storer, O. Sy, and H. Takahashi

3:15 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Session

Virtual eLightning Poster Presentations II (Wednesday)

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Pablo Santos, NWS; Naoko Sakaeda, Oklahoma University

3:15 PM

V2.1

Joint Assimilation of TROPICS and CYGNSS Satellite Data for Improved Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Blackwell, C. S. Ruf, and C. Feng

3:18 PM

V2.2

Improving Prediction of Track and Intensity for TCs in Eastern NC Using a Machine Learning Based Model

Liping Liu, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and R. Luettich

3:21 PM

V2.3

Thermodynamics of Overland Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Weakly/Non-Baroclinic Environments

Michael P. Vossen, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Handout (546.0 kB)

3:24 PM

V2.4

Hurricane Ian Intensification on the West Florida Shelf

Alexander Nickerson, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL; and J. A. Zhang, R. H. Weisberg, B. Galperin, and Y. Liu

Manuscript (302.2 kB)

Handout (2.1 MB)

Potential Intensity Theory of Tropical Cyclone Incorporating Ocean Cooling

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Using an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis with Microwave Imagery and Data during Difficult Forecast Scenarios

Using the COWVR+TEMPEST Sensor Combination to Complement Ocean Vector Winds with Precipitation

Federica Polverari, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and F. J. Turk, S. Hristova-Veleva, M. G. Morris, T. Lee, and S. T. Brown

Windborne Global Sounding Balloon Updates and Flight Plans the 2024 Tropical Season

Todd A. Hutchinson, WindBorne Systems, Arlington, MA; and A. Sushko, J. Creus-Costa, V. S. Tallapragada, and X. Wu

High-Resolution Hurricane Boundary Layer Properties Using the Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR) Agile Scanning Techniques

Bradley Klotz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Lee and J. Vivekanandan

Use of Global Sounding Balloons to Augment Tropical Cyclone Over-Ocean, Near -Environment Observations from the Surface Boundary Layer to the Tropical Tropopause

Peter G. Black, Windborne Systems, Inc., Miami, FL; and T. Hutchinson

Developing a Platform for Visualizing Tropical Cyclone 3-Dimensional Profiles from Near-Real-Time Aircraft Flight Data

Casey Shoup, Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; and J. W. Sapp, Z. Jelenak, P. S. Chang, and Q. Zhu

Understanding the Structure and Role of the Turbulent Boundary Layer in Hurricane Intensity Change

Stephen R. Guimond, Hampton University, Hampton, VA

Strategizing the Future of NOAA/NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Satellite Products and Services

Jose M. Garcia-Rivera, NOAA/NESDIS Office of Common Services (OCS), Silver Spring, MD; and G. A. Villamil-Otero

Madden-Julian Oscillation and Intraseasonal Variability

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Paper 10A.3 will also be presented as Poster 99

Geraldine Neljon Emlaw, Seattle, WA

100

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Variations in Soil Moisture and its Dependence on Climate Drivers in the Maritime Continent

Sreedevi Puthiyamadam Vasu, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray, N. Johnson, E. Nikolopoulos, and S. Lestari

101

Seasonal Variability of Kelvin Wave Phase Speeds During Different Phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Crizzia Mielle De Castro, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

102

A Dynamics-Based MJO Index

David Marsico, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. Gehne, J. R. Albers, M. Newman, and J. Dias

103

Role of Topography and Diurnal Cycle of Insolation on the MJO-Associated Precipitation in the Maritime Continent

Xin Zhou, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray, J. Dudhia, E. Nikolopoulos, and N. Johnson

104

Methods for Parameter Selection in Simple MJO Models

Jacob Cubbler, United States Naval Academy, Lewisberry, PA; and S. Hottovy

105

Evaluating the MJO's Impact on North American Subseasonal Forecasts in a Real-time Linear Inverse Model

Yuan-Ming Cheng, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Albers, M. Newman, M. Gehne, and J. Dias

106

MJO Representation in the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble: Detection, Seasonality and Amplitude

Gina R. Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD

Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Xiaomin Chen

Cochairs: Christopher M. Rozoff, PhD, Research Applications Laboratory/NCAR; Eric A. Hendricks

107

Observational Characteristics of the Boundary Layer during Tropical Cyclone Landfalls from the Boseong Tall Tower

Jinhui Ju, Kyungpook National University, Buk-gu, Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. S. R. Park, Y. H. Lee, K. H. Kim, H. J. Gim, T. W. Park, and S. R. In

108

Relationships between surface winds of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019) and topographic disturbances in eastern China

Wenbo Xue, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and Y. Hui and S. Tang

Handout (478.7 kB)

109

Momentum Flux in the Surf Zone during a Landfalling Storm

Henry Potter, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

110

A Climatology of Tornado Warning Skill in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Benjamin A. Schenkel, NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. M. Calhoun, T. Sandmael, A. A. Alford, H. E. Brooks, and R. Edwards

Handout (1.4 MB)

Rapid Intensification

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

111

Advancing the Prediction of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon

Hyemin Lee, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Korea, Republic of (South); and E. Choi, D. Kim, S. Won, and H. Lee

112

Convective Characteristics and GOES-16 GLM Optical Energy in Hurricane Ian (2022)

Kiahna Mollette, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; NASA, Huntsville, AL; and P. Duran and C. J. Schultz

Manuscript (469.5 kB)

113

Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nammadol (2022)

Soichiro Hirano, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan; and K. Ito

114

Understanding the Relationship Between Intensification Timing and Vortex Realignment.

Luis Orencio Hernandez III, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. H. Tang and K. L. Corbosiero

115

Investigating the Definition of Rapid Intensification in Typhoons: A Process-based Approach

Cheng-Hsiang Chih, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TPE, Taiwan

116

An Observational Assessment of Recent, Extreme Rapid Intensification Events in the North Atlantic

Lauren Porter, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. Meyer and K. Wood

117

Distinguishing Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rapid Intensification from Ordinary Rapid Intensification

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Finocchio, J. R. Moskaitis, and J. D. Doyle

118

Understanding the Cyan Ring Signature in 37-GHz Passive Microwave Imagery through Airborne Radar

Charles N. Helms, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield and S. R. Guimond

Handout (5.0 MB)

Recent Advances in Theory, Modeling and Observations of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

119

Implementation of a Linear-Wave Harness in the Common Community Physics Package Single Column Model: Sensitivity to Parameterized Convective Downdrafts, Rain Re-Evaporation, and Cloud Detrainment

I-Kuan Hu, CU/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich

120

Entraining Plume Model Assessment of the Convective Coupling of Equatorial Waves

Brandon Oliver Wolding, CIRES, Boulder, CO

121

Different Flavors of Horizontal Moisture Advection Influence Instraseasonal Convection over the West Pacific Ocean

Alex Omar Gonzalez, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and A. Kinsella and F. Fahrin

The Air-Sea Transition Zone

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

122

Determining Air-Sea Interaction Exchange Coefficients in Low Winds Using Small UAS

Christopher John-Mark De Loach, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and J. Wadler, J. J. Cione, PhD, and J. A. Zhang

123

Impacts of Seastate-Dependent Sea Spray Heat Fluxes on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Using Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Model Simulations

Benjamin W. Barr, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and S. S. Chen

124

Oceanic Rossby Wave Predictability in ECMWF’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Reforecasts

Jonathan Christophersen, National Research Council - Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

125

Co-evolution of Air and Sea: How do Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Influence Coastal Ocean Circulation?

Leah Nicole Hopson, Rutgers University Center for Ocean Observing Leadership (RUCOOL), New Brunswick, NJ; and T. Miles

126

Air-Sea Transition Zone Evolution over the Arabian Sea Region during the Summer Monsoon Onset: Case Study Using a Data Assimilative Regional SKRIPS Coupled Model

Rui Sun, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and A. C. Subramanian, B. Wolding, and M. R. Mazloff

127

Identifying Air-Sea Processes That Relate to Momentum Flux and Surface Drag Variability in Tropical Cyclones

Johna E Rudzin, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and K. Addington, D. H. Richter, M. Schonau, and L. Centurioni

128

Understanding SFMR Measurement Errors Within High Wind Speed and Rain Gradients

Joseph W Sapp, Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, MD; and Z. Jelenak, C. Shoup, and P. S. Chang

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Moderate Shear

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

129

Examining Events during Which Simulated Tropical Cyclones Exceed Their Theoretical Maximum Potential Intensification Rate

垂直风切变作用下热带气旋发展对涡旋大小的敏感性

130

Characterizing and Understanding Tropical Cyclone Intensification Using HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) Dataset

Suraima Aragon Teclas, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu and J. A. Zhang

131

Radar Analysis of Vortex Alignment in 2023 Tropical Cyclones

Cameron Pine, RSMAS, Key Biscayne, FL; University of Miami, Miami, FL; and G. R. Alvey III, M. S. Fischer, and D. S. Nolan

Poster Session 3/Coffee Break

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 8 May 2024

Session 12A

Joint Session of Tropical Convection, MJO, and Convectively-Coupled Equatorial Waves

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Maria Gehne, CIRES; Naoko Sakaeda, Oklahoma University

4:45 PM

12A.1

The Role of Convection and Radiation in the Equatorial Kelvin Wave

Chung Hsiung Sui, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan; and H. J. Tai, K. C. Tseng, and S. P. hsu

5:00 PM

12A.2

Assessing Northeast Pacific and African Easterly Wave Representation in CMIP6 models

Rosa M. Vargas Martes, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Madison, WI; and Á. F. Adames-Corraliza, V. C. Mayta, and Q. J. Lin

5:15 PM

12A.3

A Predator-Prey Model for Nonlinear Precipitation Oscillations in Hothouse Climates

Da Yang, UChicago, Chicago, IL; and D. Abbot

5:30 PM

12A.4

Convective Response in a Cloud-permitting Simulation of the MJO: Time Scales and Processes

Yan Liu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China; and Z. M. Tan and Z. Wu

5:45 PM

12A.5

Improved Simulation of Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the Maritime Continent Due to Rain Induced Surface Heat Flux

Xin Zhou, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray, H. Tan, J. Dudhia, R. S. Ajayamohan, H. B. Gomes, and Y. pan

Session 12B

Space-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) In Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis.

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brian Howell

CoChair: Levi Cowan, AOML

4:45 PM

12B.1

Assessing Satellite Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure

Stephanie N. Stevenson, NHC, Miami, FL

5:00 PM

12B.2

Measuring Tropical Cyclone Internal Properties from SAR Imagery : Current Capabilities and Perspectives for the Improvement of Intensity Forecasts.

Léo Vinour, France Energies Marines / Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, BREST, 29, France; France Energies Marines, Plouzané, 29, France; and S. jullien and A. Mouche

Handout (1.8 MB)

5:15 PM

12B.3

Ocean Surface Wind Retrieval from ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 and Application Studies Using SAR Winds

Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and O. Isoguchi, T. Tadono, M. Ohki, S. Sobue, M. Hayashi, Y. Ikuta, N. Kohno, W. Yanase, S. Tsujino, and M. Yamaguchi

5:30 PM

12B.4

Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with Synthetic Aperture Radar: Addressing the Decline in Space-Based Environmental Monitoring Sensors at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Steve Backofen, JTWC, Honolulu, HI; and L. Cowan

5:45 PM

12B.5

Using SAR to Diagnose the Boundary Layer Structure of Hurricane Larry (2021)

Ralph C. Foster, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and Z. Jelenak, J. W. Sapp, P. S. Chang, and A. Mouche

Session 12C

Rapid Intensification II

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David S. Nolan

CoChair: Falko Judt, NCAR

4:45 PM

12C.1

Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification (TCRI) Program

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. P. Dunion, R. F. Rogers, P. M. Finocchio, J. R. Moskaitis, D. P. Stern, and J. Cossuth

Handout (3.9 MB)

5:00 PM

12C.2

Convection in Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and Z. Stone and D. J. Raymond

5:15 PM

12C.3

Are Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Associated with Unique Vortex Characteristics?

Michael S. Fischer, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/Univeristy of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. D. Reasor, J. P. Dunion, and R. F. Rogers

5:30 PM

12C.4

Vortex Height Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Alexander J. DesRosiers, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Manuscript (521.6 kB)

5:45 PM

12C.5

Clustering Lightning to Investigate Intensity Change and Convection Patterns in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Natalia N. Solorzano, NorthWest Research Associates, Seattle, WA; and J. N. Thomas, C. Treece, B. Bede, and B. Vundavalli

Session 12D

Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research IV

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Renee (Richardson) Keller, OAR; Cheyenne Danielle Stienbarger

4:45 PM

12D.1

Record-Setting Observations Collected by a Small Uncrewed Aircraft System in Category 5 Hurricane Ian

JOSEPH J CIONE, HRD, Miami, FL; and J. B. Wadler, J. A. Zhang, G. LIN, J. T. Cione, N. Underwood, and P. Sosa

5:00 PM

12D.2

Improved Wind Measurements with Ultralight StreamSondes

Pauli Paaso, Skyfora Oy, Helsinki, FI, Finland; Skyfora, Helsinki, Finland; and J. J. Cione, PhD, J. B. Wadler, J. A. Zhang, K. Kaisti, and I. Ikonen

5:15 PM

12D.3

Dropsondes from the Stratosphere: Targeted Observations over Remote Regions Using Stratospheric Platforms

Paul Stevens, Voltitude Ltd, Farnborough, HAM, United kingdom

Manuscript (950.2 kB)

5:30 PM

12D.4

Impact of WindBorne Data on NCEP Operational GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Xingren Wu, NOAA, College Park, MD; Axiom at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. S. Tallapragada, T. A. Hutchinson, J. Creus-Costa, D. T. Kleist, and L. Cucurull

5:45 PM

12D.5

Using Novel Observations at the Air-Sea Interface to Evaluate the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Background Ensemble Forecasts from a Self-Cycled Hafs Data Assimilation System for Hurricane Finoa (2022)

Tsung-Han Li, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, X. Lu, J. A. Zhang, H. S. Kim, H. kang, and Y. Li

Thursday, 9 May 2024

8:00 AM-8:30 AM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Tropical Dynamics

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

168

Understanding the Regionality of Extreme Rainfall in the Sahel: The Mali Hotspot

169

Mid-Level Dry Air Intrusions over the Southern Maritime Continent

Juliane Schwendike, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, Leeds, United kingdom; and A. A. Aslam, S. C. Peatman, C. E. Birch, M. A. Bollasina, and P. A. Barrett

170

"Closing The Budget": Evaluating the Use of the Circulation Budget for Practical Analysis of Tropical Dynamics

Fran Morris, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and C. M. Robinson, M. J. Reeder, J. Schwendike, D. J. Parker, and C. L. Bain

Handout (20.6 MB)

171

A Mesoscale Analysis of Vertical Motion Producing Extreme Rainfall during PRECIP 2022

Tyler W. Barbero, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell and J. C. DeHart

172

Tropospheric Winds over West Sumatra - a Comparison between ERA-5 Reanalysis and Equatorial Atmospheric Radar

Wojciech Szkolka, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland; and D. B. Baranowski

172A

Assessing the Impact of Dry Free-Tropospheric Air on TC Genesis Using a High-Resolution Idealized Modeling Approach

Andrew Muehr, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. H. Ruppert Jr.

8:00 AM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research V

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Session 13A

Linking Waves in the Tropics to High Impact Weather I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Gui-Ying Yang, University of Reading; Quinton Lawton; Emily Bercos-Hickey

8:30 AM

13A.1

Pacific SST Modulates Latitude of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation-related Rainfall in Eastern China

Liyuan Weng, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; and P. Liang and Y. Lin

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

8:45 AM

13A.2

Forcing of Stratospheric Kelvin Waves by Convective Activity

George N. Kiladis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Albers and J. Dias

9:00 AM

13A.3

Extended-Range Prediction of the Tropical Cyclone Environment in Coupled Global Ensembles

Matthew A. Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA

9:15 AM

13A.4

Modulation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the HighResMIP AGCMs

Chuan-Chieh Chang, PNNL, Richland, WA; PNNL, Richland, WA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and S. W. LUBIS, M. Zhao, K. Balaguru, S. M. Hagos, Z. Chen, W. Zhou, and L. R. Leung

9:30 AM

13A.5

Modulation of Convective Activity over South America by the MJO

Daniel Sebastian Veloso-Aguila, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and K. L. Rasmussen

9:45 AM

13A.6

Occurrence of Extreme Events in West Africa and Its Relationship with the Madden Julian Oscillation

Coumba NIANG, Michigan State University, Okemos

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the ECMWF 46-Day Ensemble: Formation, Track, and Precipitation

Session 13B

Tropical Cyclones - Tracks

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: David A. Zelinsky, NWS; Levi Cowan

8:30 AM

13B.1

Steering of MDR-Originating Tropical Cyclones: Landfall or Recurvature?

Jeremiah Otero Piersante, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero, R. G. Fovell, P. S. Dailey, and F. Fischer

8:45 AM

13B.2

Investigation of the Dynamics Associated with a Sudden Southward Deflection of Hurricane Florence (2018) After Landfalling

Lela Shumpert, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and L. Liu, Y. L. Lin, and R. Luettich

9:00 AM

13B.3

Tropical Cyclone Tracks Using the Interpolated Global Ensemble Model from NCEP

Frank P. Colby Jr., University of Massachusetts-Lowell, Lowell, MA

9:15 AM

13B.4

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Cyclone Best Track Review Process

Brian C. Howell, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and A. A. Howard and M. Kucas

Handout (2.3 MB)

9:30 AM

13B.5

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Frequency over East Asia in Present Climate and Future Projection by HiRAMs and HighResMIP GCMs

kuan-Chieh chen, University of Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Tsou and C. C. Hong

9:45 AM

13B.6

Understanding Shifts in Landfall Risk in an Anomalously Warm Atlantic Climate

Peter S. Dailey, Aeolus Capital Management Ltd., Las Vegas, NV

Session 13C

Rapid Intensification III

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David S. Nolan

CoChair: David H. Richter, Univ. of Notre Dame

8:30 AM

13C.1

Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Recent Evidence of the Role of the Mississippi River Plume

Karthik Balaguru, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle, WA; and E. B. John, L. R. Leung, S. M. Hagos, R. Hetland, and G. Foltz

8:45 AM

13C.2

Effects of Marine Heat Waves on Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Hagibis (2019) and Jebi (2018)

Hwan Young Choi, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, 48, South korea; and C. C. Nam, M. S. Park, H. S. Kim, and M. M. Bell

9:00 AM

13C.3

Connecting Marine Heatwaves and Tropical Cyclones: Better Understanding of the Ocean’s Role in Rapid Intensification

Myung-Sook Park, KIOST, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Choi, H. S. Kim, and S. Lee

9:15 AM

13C.4

Microphysics of the Air-Sea interface and Rapid Intensification and Decay of Tropical Cyclones: Volume of Fluid to Discrete Phase Method and Newly Available Laboratory and Open Ocean Observations

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern University's Halmos College of Natural Scienes and Oceanography, Dania Beach, FL; and B. Vanderplow, R. Lukas, B. K. Haus, D. G. Ortiz-Suslow, and I. Ginis

9:30 AM

13C.5

Multi-scale Interaction and Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Intensification Onset

Masashi Minamide, Univ. of Tokyo / JPL, Tokyo, Japan; and D. J. Posselt, PhD

9:45 AM

13C.6

Intensity and Structural Changes and Their Relationship during Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclone

Chendi Wang, Zhejiang Early Warning Center, Hangzhou, China; and J. Fang

Session 13D

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Renee (Richardson) Keller, OAR; Lev B. Looney

8:30 AM

13D.1

Using Satellite Derived Motion Winds to Improve Monitoring and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones

John Knaff, NOAA, Fort Collins, CO

Handout (4.0 MB)

8:45 AM

13D.2

Tropical Cyclones Analysis Utilizing Ultra High Resolution Ascat Winds Estimates

Seubson Soisuvarn, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, MD; UCAR, College Park, MD; and Z. Jelenak, S. Alsweiss, P. S. Chang, Q. Zhu, and C. Jackson

9:00 AM

13D.3

Monitoring Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds with Satellite Microwave Radiometers

Lucrezia Ricciardulli, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and T. Meissner, A. Manaster, and K. Wentz

9:15 AM

13D.4

CYGNSS Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Performance Update

Christopher S. Ruf, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. Balasubramaniam, D. McKague, A. M. Warnock, and M. Al-Khaldi

9:30 AM

13D.5

Impact of CyGNSS L2 Winds on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts in the Coupled HAFS/HYCOM

Bachir Annane, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. J. Gramer

9:45 AM

13D.6

Future Satellite Observations of the Dynamics and Microphysics of Tropical Convection from the NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS)

Scott A. Braun, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; and J. E. Yorks, M. Walker McLinden, P. Kollias, H. Brogniez, T. Kubota, N. Takahashi, and T. Thorsen

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

NASA’s TROPICS Mission: Observing the Tropics with a Constellation of Smallsats

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

Students/Postdocs/Early Career Networking and Coffee Break

Location: Regency Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

Networking Coffee Break for Students, Postdocs, and Early Career Professionals

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Facilitator: Quinton A. Lawton, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Session 14A

Linking Waves in the Tropics to High Impact Weather II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Gui-Ying Yang, University of Reading; Quinton Lawton; Emily Bercos-Hickey

10:45 AM

14A.1

The Role of Tropical Waves in the May 2023 Extreme Rainfall Event in the Lake Kivu Region of East Africa

Andreas H. Fink, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Ayabagabo, M. Ssemujju, S. Ageet, M. Maranan, and B. J. Woodhams

11:00 AM

14A.2

Multiscale Controls on Oceanic Tropical Precipitation in Observations and Models

Pedro Angulo-Umana, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. Blossey and D. Kim

11:15 AM

14A.3

Moisture Sensitivity of the African Easterly Wave-African Easterly Jet and Convection Systems

Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, Z. Moon, and Q. A. Lawton

11:30 AM

14A.4

Illustrating the Land-to-Ocean Evolution of African Easterly Waves using Moist Static Energy Budgets

Abigail Joy Thornton, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer

11:45 AM

14A.5

Tropical Easterly Waves Across Central America During OTREC

Yolande L. Serra, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

12:00 PM

14A.6

Synoptic Conditions Associated with Impactful Tropical Easterly Waves

Margaret Anne Hollis, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. R. Martin

Manuscript (194.0 kB)

Session 14B

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Patrick Duran, MSFC; Scott A. Braun, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

10:45 AM

14B.1

New Observations from the NASA TROPICS Constellation Mission in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins

William J. Blackwell, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and R. V. Leslie, A. B. Milstein, G. Perras, M. Pieper, N. Zorn, S. A. Braun, C. S. Velden, C. Kidd, T. Matsui, M. J. Kim, T. Greenwald, J. D. Hawkins, D. C. Herndon, R. Bennartz, M. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, R. F. Rogers, K. E. Ryan, B. Annane, G. R. Alvey III, B. A. Dahl, and K. Cahoy

11:00 AM

14B.2

NASA TROPICS Earth Venture Mission: Data Products

R. Vincent Leslie, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Blackwell, S. A. Braun, T. Matsui, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, L. E. Gumley, C. Kidd, T. J. Greenwald, D. C. Herndon, and G. Chirokova

11:15 AM

14B.3

Initial Observing System Experiments with All-Sky Radiances from the TROPICS Constellation Using HAFS

Brittany A Dahl, NOAA, Miami, FL; and G. R. Alvey III, J. P. Dunion, R. F. Rogers, and W. J. Blackwell

11:30 AM

14B.4

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Imagery Products from the TROPICS Smallsat Satellite Constellation

Derrick C. Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. D. Hawkins, W. J. Blackwell, and R. V. Leslie

11:45 AM

14B.5

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure from TROPICS data

Galina Chirokova, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, Z. Ruan, R. T. DeMaria, J. Knaff, M. Pieper, A. B. Milstein, S. N. Stevenson, W. A. Hogsett, and J. Darlow

12:00 PM

14B.6

Towards Implementation of TROPICS Data in NHC and JTWC Operations

Coleman McClelland, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, M. DeMaria, D. Molenar, M. Goldberg, M. Pieper, J. Darlow, M. Surratt, R. T. DeMaria, A. Brammer, S. N. Stevenson, W. A. Hogsett, R. V. Leslie, and W. J. Blackwell

Session 14C

Rapid Intensification IV

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Daniel P. Stern, UCAR; Daniel R Chavas

10:45 AM

14C.1

Marathon Versus Sprint: Two Modes of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Falko Judt, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rios-Berrios and G. H. Bryan

11:00 AM

14C.2

The Modulation of TC Size Configuration on Rapid Intensification

Xi Guo, Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Z. M. Tan

14C.3

Diversity of Tropical Cyclones Rapidly Intensification

11:30 AM

14C.4

Insights from Solutions of a Moist Prognostic Balance model for Tropical Cyclone Evolution

Roger K. Smith, Meteorological Institute, Munich, BB, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and S. Wang

11:45 AM

14C.5

Asymmetric Eyewall Evolution and Intensification in a Two-Layer Model

Ting-Yu Cha, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. M. Bell

12:00 PM

14C.6

Slow Versus Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in Idealized Simulations Using Soundings from Reanalysis

Samantha Nebylitsa, University of Miami Rosenstiel School, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan, B. D. McNoldy, and S. Majumdar, Ph.D.

Session 14D

Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research VI

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Renee (Richardson) Keller, OAR; Cheyenne Danielle Stienbarger

10:45 AM

14D.1

Exploring the Gaps in Operational Aircraft Reconnaissance Coverage

Lisa Bucci, PhD, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL

11:05 AM

14D.2

Aircraft Reconnaissance Dropsonde and HDOB Data Impact on GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Vijay S. Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD; and X. Wu, D. T. Kleist, and J. A. Sippel

11:20 AM

14D.3

A New Approach to Real-time Automated Processing of Hurricane Reconnaissance Radar Data

Paul D. Reasor, AOML, Miami, FL; and J. Gamache, M. M. Bell, A. J. DesRosiers, M. S. Fischer, and K. Neighbour

11:35 AM

14D.4

Airborne Radio Occultation as an Observing System for Tropical Cyclones

Noah Jeffery Barton, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and B. Cao, J. S. Haase, N. P. Do, and J. P. Dunion

11:50 AM

14D.5

What Was the Bumpiest Flight Ever on NOAA’s WP-3D Hurricane Hunter Aircraft?

Joshua B. Wadler, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and L. Villafane, J. J. Cione, PhD, K. A. Adkins, and G. R. Alvey III

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Session 15A

Linking Waves in the Tropics to High Impact Weather III

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Gui-Ying Yang, University of Reading; Quinton Lawton; Emily Bercos-Hickey

1:45 PM

15A.1

African Easterly Wave Strength and Observed Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Characteristics

Emily Bercos-Hickey, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. M. Patricola

2:00 PM

15A.2

Novel Approach for Distinguishing North and South Tracks of African Easterly Waves: Impact on Understanding Tropical Cyclogenesis

Tanguy Jonville, LATMOS, Paris, France; Ecole des Ponts, Marne-la-Vallée, Seine-et-Marne, France; and E. Cornillault, P. Peyrille, C. Flamant, and C. Lavaysse

2:15 PM

15A.3

Influence of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and Topography on the Pre-Genesis Environment of Hurricane Ida (2021)

Alexis Victoria Wilson, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and J. Zawislak

2:30 PM

15A.4

Paradigms for the Origin of the Monsoon Onset Vortex

Shreyas Rajendra Dhavale, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; UCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Aiyyer

2:45 PM

15A.5

The Impact of Diurnal Gravity Waves on MCS over the Bay of Bengal: Observations, Linear Theory, and Data Assimilation Experiments

Chin-Hsuan Peng, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and X. Chen

Handout (6.2 MB)

3:00 PM

15A.6

Offshore Migration of Summer Monsoon Low-Level Jet on a Diurnal Scale

Yu Du, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Zhuhai, China

Session 15B

Tropical Dynamics

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Juliane Schwendike; Brian E. Mapes

1:45 PM

15B.1

BAM-Net: High Resolution Data for Process Studies in Tropical Dynamics and High Resolution Modeling

Dariusz B. Baranowski, Institite of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland; and M. Marzuki

2:00 PM

15B.2

Examining the Dynamics of a South China Sea Vortex Using a Balance Approximation Tool

Juliane Schwendike, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, Leeds, United kingdom; and S. Hardy, J. Methven, B. Harvey, and M. Culllen

2:15 PM

15B.3

West African Heat Low Climatology and Connection to Dry Tropical Cyclones

Aaron Kruskie, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

2:30 PM

15B.4

The Indian Easterly Jet during the Pre-Monsoon Season in India

Hannah Louise Croad, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United kingdom; and J. Shonk, A. Chevuturi, A. G. Turner, and K. Hodges

2:45 PM

15B.5

Interactions between Convection and the Tropical Easterly Jet in Tropical Channel Simulations

James L Warner, UKMO, Exeter, United Kingdom

Handout (2.7 MB)

3:00 PM

15B.6

An Intermediate-Complexity Model of Tropical Dynamics for Mean and Extreme Precipitation

Fiaz Ahmed, University of California, Los Angeles, Beverly Hills, CA

Session 15C

Tropical Cyclones - Forecast Evaluation and Guidance

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Lisa Bucci, PhD, AOML; Andrew Hazelton, AOML

1:45 PM

15C.1

A Parametric Model Incorporated with Satellite Wind for Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Assessment

Yi-Pin Chang, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang and K. J. Lin

2:00 PM

15C.2

Augmenting the Tropical Cyclone Logistical Guidance for Genesis (TCLOGG) By Introducing a Most Likely Time of Genesis

Ryan Michael Remondelli, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart and D. J. Halperin

Manuscript (381.9 kB)

2:15 PM

15C.3

Guidance for Operational Forecasting: Validity of Selected TC Parameters Derived from Active and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Satellites

Zorana Jelenak, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Alsweiss, F. Said, and P. S. Chang

2:30 PM

15C.4

Verification of National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Size Forecasts

Brad James Reinhart, NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi

2:45 PM

15C.5

Model and NHC Forecast Biases, Past and Present

Eric S. Blake, NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi, A. Dennis, and J. Heming

3:00 PM

15C.6

A Dynamically Adapting Forecast Cone Based on Ensemble Spread

Michael Nicholas Barletta, UAlbany, North massapequa, NY

Tropical Cyclones in the New 6.5-Km GFDL SHiELD

Session 15D

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Meteorology I

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Christopher Slocum, CISESS; Naufal Razin

Welcoming Remarks

Christopher Slocum, NOAA, Fort Collins, CO

1:45 PM

15D.1

Factors Driving Upward Trends in Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates (Invited Presentation)

Hui Su, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong kong; and K. Zhu

2:00 PM

15D.2

A Physics-Informed-Deep-Learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Ruifen Zhan, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and Y. Zhou, Y. Wang, P. Chen, and Z. M. Tan

2:15 PM

15D.3

Artificial Intelligence-Based Prediction Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensity with Inner-Core and Environmental Features

Minsang Kim, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and M. S. Park, M. Kwon, Y. Choi, and E. Jang

2:30 PM

15D.4

Predicting Current and Short-Term Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Sarah Griffin, UW-CIMSS, Madison, WI; and A. J. Wimmers, D. C. Herndon, and C. S. Velden

2:45 PM

15D.5

Applications of a Machine Learning Model for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Uncertainty

Mark DeMaria, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, M. Fernandez, R. J. Barnes, M. McGraw, G. Chirokova, L. Lu, P. Santos Jr., and W. A. Hogsett

3:00 PM

15D.6

Tropical Cyclone Intensity via Deep Learning

Christopher C. Hennon, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and C. S. Algeri

Manuscript (411.8 kB)

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Meteorology

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

134

Parametric and Machine Learning Approach for describing Hurricane Offshore Winds over the U.S Northeast Outer Continental Shelf

Geeta Nain, Argonne National Lab, Lemont, IL; ANL, Lemont, IL; and W. J. Pringle, J. Wang, and P. Xue

135

Updates on the Tropical Cyclone Precipitation, Infrared, Microwave, and Environmental Dataset (TC PRIMED)

Muhammad Naufal Razin, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Slocum, J. Knaff, K. Haynes, and M. McGraw

Reaching a Wide and Diverse Audience Quickly for Weather Communication Content with Generative AI

136

Assessment of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Hazard and Risk in a Changing Climate by means of a New Hybrid TC Global Model

Roberto Ingrosso, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Boudreault, F. S. Pausata, and D. Carozza

137

Exploring the Use of Machine Learning in Correcting GFS Tropical Cyclone Track and Landfall Errors

138

TCBench: A Platform for the Data-Driven Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Milton Salvador Gomez Jr., Univ. of Lausanne, Lausanne, Vaud, Switzerland; University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Vaud, Switzerland; and M. McGraw, L. Poulain-Auzeau, F. I. H. Tam, S. G. Sudheesh, S. J. Camargo, PhD, D. R. Chavas, Y. Cohen, and T. Beucler

139

Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Vision Transformers

William Downs, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and S. Majumdar, Ph.D.

140

Extreme Rapid Intensification of Hurricanes Otis (2023) and Patricia (2015): Machine Learning Diagnoses

Xander Lowry, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and C. Q. Kieu

141

Using a Convolutional Neural Network to Disentangle Environmental Differences between Developing and Non-Developing African Easterly Waves

Alyssa M Stansfield, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. J. Molina

142

Ensemble Forecasting with Global Machine Learning Models

143

Can Deep Learning Predict the Chaos of Tropical Cyclone Intensity?

Chanh Q Kieu, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN

144

Machine Learning-Driven Enhancement of Predictors and Prediction for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Michael Maier-Gerber, ECMWF, Bonn, NW, Germany; and L. Magnusson, P. Bonetti, A. M. Metelli, and M. Restelli

Poster 145 will also be presented as Paper 19C.3A

146

Improved “First-Guess” Forecast Guidance for National Hurricane Center Forecasters

147

What Does Lightning Tell Us About Tropical Cyclone Structure Relevant to Forecasting Intensity Change?

148

Surveillance Camera Based Extreme Rainfall Observation Using Deep Learning Model

xing wang, Nanjing university, nanjing, 32, China; and J. Zhao

Linking Waves in the Tropics to High Impact Weather

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

149

Regional Comparisons of Precipitation and Diabatic Heating in Easterly Waves Undergoing Convective Amplification and Decay

Carrie Lewis-Merritt, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and J. P. Stachnik

150

Strong Modulation of the Pacific Meridional Mode on the West-Dry East-Wet Precipitation Pattern over the Contiguous United States

Wei Zhang, Utah State University, Logan, UT

151

Multi-Year Subsurface Mixing Properties and Air-Sea Interaction in the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

Jonathan Christophersen, National Research Council - Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

153

Equatorial Waves: Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Occurrence and Intensification

Gui-Ying Yang, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and X. Feng, K. Hodges, and J. Methven

154

Tropical Waves in Surface Analysis and Their Relationship to Rainfall over Costa Rica

Isabella Wamsher, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and B. R. Lintner, Y. L. Serra, A. M. Durán Quesada, and D. Poleo

155

MCS Initiation and Precipitation over Offshore Northwestern South America: New Observational Evidence on the Role of Diurnal Gravity Waves

Jingyi Hu, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and X. Chen

Handout (1.5 MB)

156

Mesoscale Convective Organization Modulated by Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Yuan-Ming Cheng, NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. Kiladis, and H. Yu

156A

The Structure of Borneo Vortices and their Relationship with Cold Surges and Equatorial Waves

Juliane Schwendike, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and J. Crook, J. Methven, S. Hardy, J. Y. Diong, and G. Y. Yang

NASA's TROPICS

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

158

Investigating the Evolution of TC Precipitation Structure and Storm Intensification in Relation to Environmental Humidity Fields

Yalei You, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC; University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC; and S. A. Braun

Societal Impacts and Risk Communication of Tropical Weather

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A spatiotemporal investigation of multi-hazard associated with tropical cyclones

159

Modernizing NHC Products with the Power of Python

Rachel C. Zelinsky, NHC, Miami, FL; NHC, Miami, FL; and S. M. Camposano, M. Onderlinde, M. Sardi, S. N. Stevenson, D. A. Zelinsky, J. J. Alland, and C. W. Landsea

161

Real-time Global Property Loss Modeling During 2023 Tropical Cyclone Season

Annes V Haseemkunju, CoreLogic, Inc, Livermore, CA; and J. M. Brolley and D. Smith

162

Comprehensive Economic Value of Skilled Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness

Sneh Gulati, FIU - Florida International University, Miami, FL; Florida International University, Miami, FL; and C. R. Sampson

The 2021 and 2022 Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) Field Campaigns: Untangling Interactions between Convection, Aerosols, and Winds in the Tropical North Atlantic

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

163

Vertical Distribution of Saharan Dust during the NASA CPEX-CV Campaign

Sarothi Ghosh, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas, A. Deegan, and A. Beyersdorf

164

Overview of African Easterly Wave Characteristics over the Eastern Atlantic during the CPEX-CV 2022 Field Campaign

Alan Brammer, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Zawislak and J. P. Dunion

165

Airborne Observations with a Microwave Sounder during CPEX-AW and CPEX-CV: Observations and Scientific Results

Mathias Schreier, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and B. Lambrigtsen, S. Wong, and E. Fishbein

166

Synoptic Influences on Diurnal Rainfall Regimes over Puerto Rico during CPEX-AW

Naoko Sakaeda, ; and K. Martinez Lopez, S. N. Wu, E. R. Martin, R. Rios-Berrios, H. Jimenez-Gonzalez, K. M. Bedka, B. Lambrigtsen, A. R. Nehrir, S. Wong, R. Rodriguez Monje, J. Collins, R. A. Barton-Grimley, M. Schreier, and O. Sy

Handout (4.2 MB)

167

Convective Organization in African Easterly Waves and the Intertropical Convergence Zone observed during the NAMMA and CPEX-CV Field Experiments

Delián Colón-Burgos, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

173

Severe Flooding in Pakistan in August 2022 Associated with an Unusually Amplified Large-Scale Flow Pattern that Facilitated Midlatitude-Tropical Interactions

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and B. Ribeiro and A. K. Mitchell

174

An Analysis of the Predictability of Tropical and Post-Tropical Ida's (2021) Heavy Precipitation

Melissa Piper, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

175

The Role of Midlatitude Dry Air during the Withdrawal of the Indian Monsoon

Akshay Deoras, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United kingdom; and A. G. Turner, A. Volonté, and A. Menon

176

Understanding the Seasonality of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Teleconnections through the Lorenz Energy Cycle

Tatiana Nicole Esteva-Ingram, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Sakaeda

177

A Comprehensive Analysis of Recurving EPAC Tropical Cyclones in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs

Alexander Kyle Mitchell, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero and L. F. Bosart

178

Restoring Causality to Hydrostatic Vertical Motion

Brian E. Mapes, RSMAS, Miami, FL

Poster Session 4/Coffee Break

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the Events )

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 9 May 2024

Session 16A

The 2021 and 2022 Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) Field Campaigns: Untangling Interactions between Convection, Aerosols, and Winds in the Tropical North Atlantic - I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Angela Rowe; Benjamin D. Rodenkirch; Shun-Nan Wu, Univ. of Oklahoma

4:45 PM

16A.1

An Overview of Saharan Dust Outbreaks Observed During the NASA Convective Processes Experiment – Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV)

Edward P. Nowottnick, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. S. Reid, A. R. Nehrir, P. R. Colarco, S. H. Chen, E. C. Crosbie, L. Ziemba, K. M. Bedka, K. L. Thornhill, E. Marinou, and V. Amiridis

5:00 PM

16A.2

Assimilation of NASA CPEX-AW and CPEX-CV Field Observations and Satellite Data for Improved Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclone and Tropical Convection

Chengfeng Feng, The Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu, A. R. Nehrir, and K. M. Bedka

5:15 PM

16A.3

Controlling Mechanisms on Tropical Storm Hermine (2022) and Their Sensitivity to CPEX-CV Observations

Allan Lee, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and S. H. Chen, C. C. Huang, T. R. Nathan, Y. Yu, M. Kavaya, K. M. Bedka, A. R. Nehrir, K. L. Thornhill, Z. Liu, J. Collins, R. A. Ferrare, R. A. Barton-Grimley, J. Cooney, P. G. Veals, B. Lambrigtsen, M. Schreier, and S. Wong

16A.4

Compound Dry-Dusty Air Intrusions during the Genesis of Tropical Storm Kate (2021): Evidence from the CPEX-AW Field Campaign and Coupled Modeling

5:45 PM

16A.5

Investigating the Role of Dry Air Intrusion in the Initial Evolution of Hurricane Ian’s Precursor Using Model Simulations and Airborne Observations

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. H. Chen, A. Rowe, and E. J. Zipser

Session 16B

Tropical Cyclones - Cyclogenesis

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Jonathan Martinez, Colorado State Univ.; Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio

4:45 PM

16B.1

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Using a Ventilation-Reduced Potential Intensity

Daniel R Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and S. J. Camargo, PhD and M. K. Tippett

5:00 PM

16B.2

A Simple Theoretical Model for Tropical Cyclogenesis

John M Peters, Penn State Univ., State College, PA; and D. R. Chavas and X. Chen

5:15 PM

16B.3

Tropical Cyclone Frequency and ITCZ Dynamics in Zonally Asymmetric Aquaplanet Simulations

Adam C. Burnett, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA; and A. Sheshadri, T. E. Robinson Jr., PhD, and P. Lin

5:30 PM

16B.4

The Structure of a Tropical Cyclone Seed Vortex Affects Its Persistence and Genesis Potential

Kuan-Yu Lu, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas

Manuscript (741.2 kB)

5:45 PM

16B.5

Assessment of the LMDZ Model to the Dynamic and Thermodynamic Properties of Cyclogenesis in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and on the West African Coast

Dame Gueye, Laboratory of Environment, Computing, Telecommunications and Renewable Energy, Saint Louis, SL, Senegal; and A. L. DIENG, A. Deme, M. B. Sylla, and A. A. Coly

Impact of the upper-tropospheric cold low on the genesis of Typhoon Hagupit (2020)

Session 16C

Tropical Cyclones - Observing and Simulating the Boundary Layer

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Kyle K. Ahern, AOML; Jun A. Zhang, HRD

4:45 PM

16C.1

Eulerian Multifluid Model of Hurricane Boundary Layer Laden with Polydisperse Ocean Spray

Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov and C. Zhang

5:00 PM

16C.2

Modeling a Hurricane Boundary Layer Through Matched Asymptotics

Tom Doerffel, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; and R. Klein and B. Khouider

5:15 PM

16C.3

Observations and Characteristics of Small-Scale, Wave-Like Perturbations on the Inner Edge of the Tropical Cyclone Eyewall

Jimmy Yunge, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

16C.4

High-Resolution Large-Eddy Simulation of the Hurricane Boundary Layer

5:45 PM

16C.5

Investigating hurricane boundary layer turbulent structure in airborne radar data and the MPAS model

Yu-An Chen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and P. J. van Leeuwen and S. R. Guimond

Session 16D

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Meteorology II

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Benjamin C Trabing, PhD, CIRA; Mark DeMaria, NHC

4:45 PM

16D.1

Tropical Surface Analysis Using Deep Learning

William Downs, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Miami, FL; and S. Majumdar, Ph.D. and A. D. Mahoney

5:00 PM

16D.2

Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Formation with Large-Scale Memory Using Deep Learning Transformer

Yadi Wei, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN; and S. Patil, R. Khardon, and C. Q. Kieu

5:15 PM

16D.3

Center Fixing Tropical Depressions and Tropical Storms Using Machine Learning - Nighttime Visible Imagery

Nathan Kyle Stanford, AWS, Kettering, OH; and C. Pasillas, PhD and A. J. Wimmers

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

5:30 PM

16D.4

GeoCenter: Real-Time Deep Learning with Uncertainty Quantification for Center-Fixing of Tropical Cyclones

Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Chirokova, R. DeMaria, M. DeMaria, I. Ebert-Uphoff, J. Knaff, C. Slocum, W. A. Hogsett, S. N. Stevenson, and J. Darlow

5:45 PM

16D.5

Using Dynamic Ensembles and Machine Learning to Determine Tropical Cyclone Forecast Position Confidence Areas

Rabi Rivett, BoM, West Perth, Western Australia, Australia; and C. Earl-Spurr, A. Burton, and M. Boterhoven

Handout (390.5 kB)

Friday, 10 May 2024

8:00 AM-3:00 PM: Friday, 10 May 2024

The 2021 and 2022 Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) Field Campaigns: Untangling Interactions between Convection, Aerosols, and Winds in the Tropical North Atlantic - II

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 10 May 2024

Session 17A

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Edward P. Nowottnick, NASA; Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio; Svetla Hristova-Veleva, JPL

8:30 AM

17A.1

Multi-Frequency Radar Observations of Tropical Oceanic Convection during CPEX-CV

Angela Rowe, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and B. D. Rodenkirch, G. Martinez, E. J. Zipser, M. Rajagopal, R. Rodriguez Monje, O. Sy, and S. Tanelli

8:45 AM

17A.2

Relationship of Convective Structure to Near-storm Environmental Moisture and Wind from the NASA CPEX-CV Field Campaign

Benjamin D. Rodenkirch, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and A. Rowe

9:00 AM

17A.3

Relating Convective Lifecycle to Near-Storm Environmental Parameters: Insights from Two CPEX-CV Cases

Giselle Martinez, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and A. K. Rowe and B. D. Rodenkirch

9:15 AM

17A.4

The Influence of Synoptics on Mesoscale Convective Systems and Associated Diurnal Cycle over Coastal West Africa

Shun-Nan Wu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Sakaeda, R. Rios-Berrios, and E. R. Martin

9:30 AM

17A.5

Effects of Large-Scale Perturbations on the Evolution of Coastal Offshore Convection over West Africa

Naoko Sakaeda, ; and S. N. Wu, K. M. Núñez Ocasio, E. R. Martin, R. Rios-Berrios, K. M. Bedka, B. Lambrigtsen, A. R. Nehrir, S. Wong, R. Rodriguez Monje, M. A. Hollis, Q. A. Lawton, E. J. Zipser, J. Collins, R. A. Barton-Grimley, M. Schreier, and O. Sy

9:45 AM

17A.6

Nocturnal Offshore Convection: The Role of the West African Monsoon and Land Breeze during CPEX-CV

Kelly M. Nunez Ocasio, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Wu, R. Rios-Berrios, N. Sakaeda, A. Rowe, K. L. Thornhill, K. M. Bedka, Q. A. Lawton, and L. Huaman

Session 17B

Tropical Cyclones - Seasonal Forecasts and Variability

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; Christina M. Patricola

8:30 AM

17B.1

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season Despite Strong El Nino Conditions

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. J. Jones, M. M. Bell, E. S. Blake, S. G. Bowen, L. P. Caron, D. R. Chavas, J. M. Collins, E. J. Gibney, C. J. Schreck III, R. E. Truchelut, and K. M. Wood

8:45 AM

17B.2

The Met Office Seasonal Forecast for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in 2023

Julian Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; and A. Maidens

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

9:00 AM

17B.3

The Predictability of Atmospheric Conditions Relevant for Tropical Cyclone Activity on Subseasonal Timescales

Robert G. Nystrom, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Judt

9:15 AM

17B.4

Observed Interannual Relationship between ITCZ Position and Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Xiaoqing Liao, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China; and C. E. Holloway, X. Feng, C. L. LIU, X. Lyu, Y. Xue, R. Bao, J. Li, and F. Qiao

9:30 AM

17B.5

Atmospheric Modes Fiddling the Simulated ENSO Impact on Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Northwestern Pacific

Jiuwei Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 32, China

9:45 AM

17B.6

What Drives Variability in Tropical Cyclone Landfall Patterns in the Eastern North Pacific? Environmental Drivers and Implications

Jose Alfredo Ocegueda Sanchez, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas and J. Jones, PhD

Session 17C

Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls III

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kate Musgrave, CIRA

CoChair: Benjamin A. Schenkel, CIMMS

8:30 AM

17C.1

Quantification of Precipitation Asymmetries of Tropical Cyclones at Different Landfall Stages: An Emphasis on the Over-Land Precipitation Structure

Oscar Fernando Guzman Rey, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and H. Jiang and H. WILLOUGHBY

8:45 AM

17C.2

Raindrop Size Distributions in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Airborne Imaging Probes and Dual-Pol Radars

Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. J. DesRosiers and M. M. Bell

9:00 AM

17C.3

Three Methods for Comparing Reflectivity Values Detected By Satellite and Ground-Based Radars during Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and Z. S. Ali, S. E. Zick, and K. M. Wood

9:15 AM

17C.4

Impact of Largescale Vorticity on Tropical Cyclone Wind Asymmetry

Amethyst Annie Johnson, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, ERY, United kingdom; and J. Kepert, J. Schwendike, and A. N. Ross

Manuscript (2.5 MB)

9:30 AM

17C.5

Air-Sea Interactions, Vertical Motions, High Winds, and Heavy Precipitation Associated with Land Falling Tropical Storm Lee over Gulf of Mexico using Remote Sensing and Satellite Data

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri, M. Fadavi, W. Walters, and M. F. Wehner

17C.6

The Florida Keys Cyclone of November 15-16, 2023: What Kind of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Did It Have?

Microphysical Observation and Analysis in the Eyewall and Inner Rainbands of Typhoons

Session 17D

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Meteorology III

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: John Knaff, STAR; Stephanie N. Stevenson, NHC

8:30 AM

17D.1

Retrieval of Inner-Core Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds from Satellite-Based Microwave Imagers and Sounders with Regression-Based UNet Models

Anthony J. Wimmers, Associate Scientist, Univ. of Wisconsin CIMSS, Madison, WI; and S. Griffin, D. C. Herndon, and C. S. Velden

8:45 AM

17D.2

An End-to-End Deep Learning Approach for Tropical Cyclone 2-D Surface Wind Analysis

YungYun Cheng, National Taiwan University, Taipei City, Taiwan

9:00 AM

17D.3

Secondary Eyewall Detection in Passive Microwave Imagery

Muhammad Naufal Razin, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO

9:15 AM

17D.4

Aiding Tropical Cyclone Forecasting by Creating Synthethic 89- and 37- GHz Imagery from Operational Geostationary Satellites

Katherine Haynes, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Slocum, J. Knaff, K. Musgrave, M. N. Razin, and I. Ebert-Uphoff

9:30 AM

17D.5

Exploring Tropical Cyclone Structure and Evolution with AI-based Synthetic Passive Microwave Data

Marie McGraw, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO

9:45 AM

17D.6

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

John Mark Mayhall, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville / NASA SPoRT, Huntsville, AL; and P. Duran, A. T. White, and R. A. Wade

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (3.2 MB)

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Friday, 10 May 2024

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Meteorology IV

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Friday, 10 May 2024

Session 18A

Societal Impacts and Risk Communication of Tropical Weather I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Alexander Tardy, NOAA; Thomas Birchard Jr.

10:45 AM

18A.1

Probabilistic Guidance for Tropical Cyclone Inland Wind Watches and Warnings

Samantha M Camposano, NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Santos Jr., M. DeMaria, and M. J. Brennan

11:00 AM

18A.2

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Next Generation Wind Speed Probability (WSP) Model

Pablo Santos Jr., NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, A. Brammer, M. Onderlinde, K. Musgrave, and W. A. Hogsett

11:15 AM

18A.3

Dynamic Communication of Weather Risk: A User-Centered Design Approach

Brian D. McNoldy, University of Miami Rosenstiel School, Miami, FL; and A. Cairo, S. D. Evans, S. J. Majumdar, B. Millet, R. E. Morss, and R. Prestley

11:30 AM

18A.4

Toward the Development of Impact-Based Guidance at the National Hurricane Center

Joshua J. Alland, NHC, Miami, FL; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Rhome

11:45 AM

18A.5

Language Equity in Life-Saving Weather Information During Tropical Events

Krizia Negrón-Hernández, NWS Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBES) Program, Silver Spring, MD

12:00 PM

18A.6

Applying an Open-Source Tropical Cyclone Risk Model for the Public Good

Jane W. Baldwin, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and C. Y. Lee, B. Walsh, S. J. Camargo, PhD, and A. H. Sobel

Session 18B

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions I

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Robert E. Hart; Elizabeth A. Ritchie

10:45 AM

18B.1

Cyclone Type Classification Using JPSS Data and Machine Learning

Zhixing Ruan, CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, M. DeMaria, Y. Zhu, PhD, J. Knaff, C. Slocum, S. N. Stevenson, W. A. Hogsett, and J. Darlow

11:00 AM

18B.2

Multiple

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY

11:15 AM

18B.3

Severe Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona - Canada's 'Superstorm Sandy'

Chris Fogarty, PhD, MSC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

11:30 AM

18B.4

Structural Changes in Tropical Cyclones during Extratropical Transition in Idealized Experiments

Wataru Yanase, MRI, Tsukuba, , 08, Japan; and E. Tochimoto, N. Kitabatake, and P. M. Finocchio

11:45 AM

18B.5

Unique Impacts From Hilary In The United States

David M. Roth, NWS, College Park, MD

Manuscript (804.5 kB)

12:00 PM

18B.6

On Southeastern Pacific Subtropical Cyclones

Cameron E. Wunderlin, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and L. F. Muñoz

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Session 18C

Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls IV

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jennifer C. DeHart

CoChair: Philippe P. Papin, NCEP

10:45 AM

18C.1

Characteristics and Evolution of Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones Landing in China over the Past 43 Years

Shoujuan Shu, Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou, China

11:00 AM

18C.2

Extreme Rainfall and Intensification Mechanisms in Hurricane Fiona (2022)

Angelie Teresa Nieves Jiménez, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell, G. J. Alaka Jr., and R. F. Rogers

Manuscript (612.3 kB)

11:15 AM

18C.3

Study the Moist Flow Regime Transition and Heavy Orographic Rainfall During Typhoon Passage over Taiwan's Central Mountain Range

S. M. SHAJEDUL KARIM, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

11:30 AM

18C.4

A spatio-temporal comparison of moisture environments associated with North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes

Kimberly Wood, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. E. Zick and C. J. Matyas

11:45 AM

18C.5

Evaluating the Role of Land Surface Moisture in Generating Asymmetrical Precipitation during the Landfall of Hurricane Florence (2018)

Lindsey Rosenthal, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA; and S. E. Zick

12:00 PM

18C.6

Analysis and forecast of typhoon Chanthu (2021) using an ensemble radar data assimilation system: Impact of model horizontal resolution and assimilation frequency on vortex spindown

Kuan-Jen Lin, National Central University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang

Session 18D

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jonathan Martinez, Colorado State Univ.; Matthew Onderlinde, CIRA/CSU

10:45 AM

18D.1

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclones in Global Data-Driven Forecasting Models

Michael Maier-Gerber, ECMWF, Bonn, NW, Germany; and L. Magnusson and M. Chantry

11:00 AM

18D.2

Advancing Hurricane Forecasting: Model Utilizing Transformers Trained on MERRA2 and ERA5 Data

ANKUR KUMAR, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA IN HUNTSVILLE, HUNTSVILLE, AL; and U. S. Nair, S. Roy, and R. Ramachandran

11:15 AM

18D.3

Improved Subseasonal Prediction of South Asian Monsoon Rainfall Using Data-Driven Forecasts of Oscillatory Modes

Eviatar Bach, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and V. Krishnamurthy, S. Mote, J. Shukla, A. S. Sharma, E. Kalnay, and M. Ghil

11:30 AM

18D.4

Downscaling and Bias Correction of Extreme Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in ERA5 Using Deep Learning

Guido Ascenso, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, MI, Italy; and A. Ficchì, M. Giuliani, E. Scoccimarro, and A. Castelletti

11:45 AM

18D.5

Data-Driven Equation Discovery of a Parameterization for Tropical Precipitation

Tom Georges Beucler, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, VD, Switzerland; and J. Lecuyer, F. Ahmed, J. D. Neelin, and H. Moss

12:00 PM

18D.6

Forecasting the Sudden Turning Tracks of Tropical Cyclones Using a Causality-Based and Internal Dynamics-Informed AI Model

X. San Liang, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Southern Marine Laboratory, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and Y. Rong

Emulating Microphysics Parameterization in Unified Forecast System for Hurricane Application

Generative learning for km-scale atmospheric simulation of global to regional

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Friday, 10 May 2024

Lunch Break

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Friday, 10 May 2024

Session 19A

Societal Impacts and Risk Communication of Tropical Weather II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Samantha M Camposano; Joshua J. Alland

1:45 PM

19A.1

National Weather Service San Diego Issues First Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings for Extreme Southwestern California for Tropical Storm Hilary

Elizabeth Adams, NOAA, San Diego, CA; and C. Oswant

2:00 PM

19A.2

Tropical Cyclone Hilary - NWS San Diego provides weather decision support for Tropical Cyclone impacts in Southern California

Alexander Tardy, NOAA, San Diego, CA

2:15 PM

19A.3

Hurricane Dora and the tragic Maui wildfires

Thomas Birchard Jr., NWS, Honolulu, HI; NWS, Honolulu, HI; and P. P. Papin

2:30 PM

19A.4

The Meteorology of the Maui Firestorm

Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and T. Cherubini

2:45 PM

19A.5

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Hurricane Center - Providing the U.S. Coast Guard with Impact-based Decision Support Services to Keep Blue Water Mariners Safe

Christopher W. Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

3:00 PM

19A.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Products in Support of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations

Richard C. Ballucanag, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI

Session 19B

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions II

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Robert E. Hart; Kimberly Wood, Mississippi State University

1:45 PM

19B.1

Using Local Wave Activity to Quantify the Impacts of Tropical Cyclones undergoing Extratropical Transition on the Jet Stream Waviness

Giorgio Massimo Sarro, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and N. Nakamura

19B.2

Large-scale Regions of Negative Potential Vorticity Along the Subtropical Jet During the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Fiona

2:15 PM

19B.3

Identifying and Characterizing Tropical Moisture Exports in Atmospheric Rivers

JOSE M MARTINEZ-CLAROS, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and N. J. Lutsko

2:30 PM

19B.4

Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves

Chi-Cherng Hong, University of Taipei, Taipei, Zhongzheng, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu

2:45 PM

19B.5

ENSO Teleconnections and the Internal Variability of Tropical Pacific Diabatic Forcing in the CESM2 and E3SMv2 Large Ensembles

Richard B. Neale, NCAR, Boulder, CO

3:00 PM

19B.6

Mid-Latitude Controls on Monsoon Onset and Progression (the MiLCMOP project)

Andrew George Turner, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United kingdom; and A. Volonté, A. Deoras, and A. Menon

Session 19C

Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls V

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Mark DeMaria, NHC; ANKUR KUMAR

1:45 PM

19C.1

Multiscale Assimilation of Radar and AWS Data for Typhoon Haikui's Record-Breaking Landfalling Precipitation Forecast

Haiqin Chen, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and K. Zhao Sr. and T. Sun

2:00 PM

19C.2

Evaluating Rainfall Sensitivity over Land to Tropical Cyclone Parameters Using Idealized WRF

Madison Campbell Yawn, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS; Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and J. E. Rudzin, N. Nadal-Caraballo, and J. A. Hlywiak

2:15 PM

19C.4

Using MODE to Calculate the WPC, NBM, and HAFS QPF Displacement Error for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Benjamin S. Albright, SAIC, Gaithersburg, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr.

19C.3

Assessing the Impact of Turbulence Parameterizations on Typhoon Precipitation Forecast

2:30 PM

19C.3A

Using Feature-Based Methods to Blend Tropical Cyclone Official Forecasts in the National Blend of Models

Samantha M Camposano, NHC, Miami, FL; and G. Wagner, D. E. Rudack, P. Santos Jr., M. DeMaria, M. Onderlinde, and G. Manikin

2:45 PM

19C.5

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

Ronald Herman Kouski Jr., Iowa State University, Des Moines, IA; and C. M. Patricola, E. Bercos-Hickey, and M. Risser

Manuscript (486.7 kB)

3:00 PM

19C.6

Evaluation of Parametric Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds over the Eastern Australian Region

Julian O'Grady, CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia; and H. A. Ramsay, K. McInnes, and R. Gregory

Session 19D

Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Meteorology V

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jhordanne Jones, PhD, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/Purdue University; Wallace A. Hogsett

1:45 PM

19D.1

Machine Learning Models Use Large Scale Signals to Forecast the MJO

Lin Yao, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and D. Yang, J. Duncan, A. K. Chattopadhyay, P. Hassanzadeh, W. Bhimji, and B. Yu

2:00 PM

19D.2

Artificial intelligence for multi-scale meteorological forecasting in French Polynesia

Vateanui SANSINE, Institut de Recherche pour le développement, Punaauia, Tahiti, French polynesia; and T. Izumo and M. Hopuare

2:15 PM

19D.3

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang and X. Liu

2:30 PM

19D.4

The Importance of Bringing Tropical Cyclone Science to Bear on Long-Term Hazard Risk

Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

2:45 PM

19D.5

Deep Learning Models for Revealing the Climate Trends of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Energy Extremes and its Usage in Operational Typhoon Forecasting

Buo-Fu Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

3:00 PM

19D.6

Generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks impacting North American using statistical and machine learning methods

Yuepeng Li, Florida International University, Miami, FL; Florida International University, Miami, FL; and S. Gao, W. dong, Q. chen, and S. Hamid

3:15 PM-4:00 PM: Friday, 10 May 2024

Session

Student Awards

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; and the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

Cochairs: Naoko Sakaeda, Oklahoma University; Pablo Santos, NWS

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Sunday, 5 May 2024

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 5 May 2024

Registration

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Monday, 6 May 2024

8:00 AM-7:00 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Registration and Speaker Ready Room

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics I

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions I

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) I (HWRF and HAFS developments)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Session Chairs: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/AOML) and Aaron Poyer (NOAA/NWS)

NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) was created in 2009 with the vision of organizing the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to the National Hurricane Center. Since HFIP’s inception in 2009, model hurricane track and intensity forecast errors were reduced by 50% and 56%, respectively, and intensity errors during Rapidly Intensifying storms were reduced by 47%. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) became world-class (2014).

In 2017, Congress passed the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act including Section 104, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, instructing NOAA to maintain a project to improve hurricane forecasting to develop and extend accurate hurricane forecasts and warnings to reduce loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy, with a focus on improving the prediction of rapid intensification and track of hurricanes; improving the forecast and communication of surges from hurricanes; and incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products. Under the updated plan, HFIP will continue to address the original goals of reducing track and intensity forecast errors by 20% within 5 years and 50% within 10 years and extend forecasts out to 7 days, particularly focusing on rapid intensification guidance. In addition, the updated plan extends HFIP’s purview to improving guidance on predicting storm structure and all hurricane hazards (surge, rain, associated severe weather, gusts as well as sustained winds) at actionable lead times for emergency managers (e.g., 72 hours). Improved hazard guidance will derive from dynamical model ensembles enabling probabilistic hazard products and improved track, intensity change, and structure (radii to maximum and 35-knot winds) predictions before formation and throughout the storm’s life cycle. Using social science research, HFIP will design a more effective tropical cyclone product suite to communicate risk better and transition all current tropical hazards products. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) was created to address these goals.

As in the past AMS hurricane meetings, we expect 4-5 HFIP sessions (with 30-50 presentations/posters) dealing with numerical modeling and inner-core DA techniques, basic research of modeled TCs, understanding RI of TCs, research related to Ensembles, and probabilistic products, especially using NOAA models: HWRF, HAFS, GFS, GEFS, etc.

Tropical Convection I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Coffee Break - Seaview Foyer and Regency Foyer

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Morning coffee breaks will take place in the Seaview Foyer and Regency Foyer.

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics II

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions II

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) II (Forecast Models)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Convection II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Lunch Break

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics III

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions III

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) III (TC model Physics)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Modeling and Parameterization of Moist Convection Across Scales I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Modeling clouds and convection in weather and climate models remains challenging due to complex non-linear interactions between processes occurring at resolved and unresolved scales. These interactions strongly depend on both model resolution and the parameterization of subgrid processes. Major sources of uncertainty include the representation of boundary layer processes that shape convection and its early development, as well as its coupling with the environment, which is often affected by aerosol and precipitation feedbacks. In the case of deep convection, additional sources of uncertainty typically include the parameterization of microphysics, entrainment, downdrafts, and cold pools.

This session invites contributions related to the modeling and parameterization of clouds and convection, including the diurnal cycle and transitions between different cloud regimes. We highly encourage abstract submissions that cover research on both small-scale (resolved) and large-scale (parameterized) aspects of convection, as well as multiscale modeling.

3:15 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Virtual eLightning Poster Presentations I (Monday)

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

This session will have 3-min overview presentations by virtual poster presentations.

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Modeling and Parameterization of Moist Convection Across Scales

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Convection

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Understanding the Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Evolution in Three Dimensions

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Poster Session 1/Coffee Break

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics IV

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Cyclones Structure I

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) IV: Forecast & Challenges

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Modeling and Parameterization of Moist Convection Across Scales II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 6 May 2024

Plenary Evening Talk & Reception

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tuesday, 7 May 2024

8:00 AM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Registration and Speaker Ready Room

Location: Beacon Rotunda (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics V

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Cyclones Structure II

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) V: Forecast Products and Evaluations

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Radiative Feedback in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Convection I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Abstracts are solicited for research related to the feedback between atmospheric radiative heating and tropical moist convection across a range of scales, from microphysical to planetary. Specific topics we solicit include (but are not limited to) the diurnal cycle and cloud–radiation feedback in tropical cyclones, convective aggregation, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and numerical model representation and forecast sensitivity. Studies drawing on theory, observations, and numerical models are all solicited. We expect new insights and opportunities for collaboration to come from bringing together researchers addressing this subject across different contexts.

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Coffee Break - Seaview Foyer and Regency Foyer

Location: Seaview Foyer (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Morning coffee breaks will take place in the Seaview Foyer and Regency Foyer.

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics VI

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Cyclones Structure III

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) VI (DA)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Radiative Feedback in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Convection II

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Lunch Break

1:45 PM-3:15 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics VII

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Cyclones - Intensity

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) VII (Ensembles & Products)

Location: Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

The Air-Sea Transition Zone I

Location: Shoreline AB (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

3:15 PM-4:45 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Radiative Feedback in Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Convection

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Tropical Cyclones

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Poster Session 2/Coffee Break

Location: Regency Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

4:45 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics VIII

Location: Seaview Ballroom (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate and Weather

Location: Beacon A (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)

Cochairs:

Haikun Zhao

Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Philip J. Klotzbach

Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

Liguang Wu

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Bian He

State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Fengpeng Sun

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Missouri–Kansas City, USA

The Tibetan Plateau, known as "The Third Pole" of the world, is the highest plateau on Earth with an average altitude of more than 4,000 meters. Numerous studies have focused on the thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau since its high elevation can significantly affect the global large-scale circulation and regional weather events on various time scales. For example, snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, through albedo and hydrologic effects, can modulate diabatic heating and thus, affect local and/or remote climate. Observational and numerical studies have found that Tibetan Plateau snow cover can have significant impacts on the Asian monsoon and is therefore regarded as a potential factor for short-term prediction of weather and climate.

This session invites both observational and numerical studies to better understand the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on regional and global climate and weather events and aims to share recent advances in Tibetan Plateau climate research and socio-economic impact assessments. We are particularly interested in topics addressing: 1) the physical mechanisms behind the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on global and regional climate, 2) the hydrological effects of the Tibetan Plateau, such as its potential impacts on snow cover and the Asian monsoon, 3) the remote and local impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on the climate and hydrological cycle induced by land-atmosphere-ocean interactions, 4) advances in modeling on how to properly represent land-atmosphere-ocean interactions, 5) the roles of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in extreme weather events, and 6) interdisciplinary research for better understanding changes in the Tibetan Plateau and its socio-economic impacts.

We expect this session will provide a platform to foster communications and build collaborations to discuss the progress of current research on the climate/weather impacts of the Tibetan Plateau, highlight the importance of synergetic impacts of land-air-sea interactions on climate and weather, and explore the possibility to use the Tibetan Plateau as an additional potential predictor for weather events in a changing climate.