Trends of Tropical Cyclone-induced Extreme Precipitation in East Asia and Their Causes

We investigate observed trends in tropical cyclone-induced extreme precipitation intensity (TCEP) and their causes in East Asia, using a high-resolution observational rainfall dataset and typhoon best track data. Results show that there is a significant, basin-wide increase in the intensity of rainfall associated with typhoons that cause extreme rainfall, of 33% basin-wide since 1951. This exceeds the rate of Clausius-Clapeyron scaling from expected warming. In contrast, there is a large variability in TCEP frequency with only a weak significant increase. These results are observed over two periods: 1951-2015 (pre-satellite era) and 1979-2015 (satellite era). The subtropical region in East Asia receives the strongest and most significant increase in both TCEP intensity and frequency. The changes in TCEP intensity and frequency are robust across two different rainfall datasets and different thresholds for extreme precipitation. These changes cannot be explained by modes of climate variability and are consistent with the effect of global warming and an observed significant decrease in cyclone translation speed in the region.