Session 4C NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) IV: Forecast & Challenges

Monday, 6 May 2024: 4:45 PM-6:00 PM
Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)
Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs:
Xiaomin Chen, The University of Alabama at Huntsville, Huntsville, AL and Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY

Papers:
4:45 PM
4C.1
Hurricane Otis: A Case for a Rapid Migration Toward Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. Lin

5:00 PM
4C.2
The Progress of Operational Regional Hurricane Model Track Forecast Performance Compared with Global Forecast Models
Lin Zhu, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, W. Wang, J. H. Shin, M. F. Aristizabal Vargas, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

Handout (3.8 MB)

5:15 PM
4C.3
Exploration of Satellite Predictors in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

5:30 PM
4C.4
Exploring Hafs Forecast Challenges with Extreme Intensification and Weakening during 2023 Hurricanes Lee and Otis
Andrew T. Hazelton, Univ. of Miami CIMAS, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, G. J. Alaka Jr., L. J. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, and M. C. Ko

What Factors Caused the Rapid Intensification Forecast Failure of the Hurricane Otis (2023) in Real-Time Operational Models?

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
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