The Progress of Operational Regional Hurricane Model Track Forecast Performance Compared with Global Forecast Models

The operational implementation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System version 1 (HAFSv1) in 2023 marked an important milestone of NCEP’s regional hurricane model development and operational transition. HAFS is the Unified Forecast System (UFS) based hurricane application to succeed the legacy NCEP regional hurricane forecast systems (e.g., HWRF). This study examines the progress and performance evaluation of NCEP’s regional operational hurricane models’ track forecasts, especially comparing them against global forecast models. The evaluation focuses on assessing the accuracy, reliability, error distribution and overall performance metrics, including track error statistics and verification against official best tracks. The analysis shows enhanced skill in track prediction of regional hurricane models over the recent years. Notably, advancements in dynamic modeling techniques, physics and other aspects have contributed substantially on refining track forecasts. Furthermore, comparative assessment against global forecast models elucidate the strengths and limitations of regional hurricane models. This evaluation contributes to a deeper understanding of the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-science in hurricane track forecasting.