Exploration of Satellite Predictors in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Infrared imagery from geostationary satellites have served as a critical component of tropical cyclone statistical-dynamical intensity guidance for decades. Predictors developed from statistical metrics over the inner core of tropical cyclones have been used to represent storm-scale convection, adding a storm-based component to the primarily large-scale environmental predictors incorporated into the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Several new predictors have been developed over the intervening time, but not all the advances in geostationary satellite technology have been tested and integrated. This presentation will focus on the exploration of the current state of the satellite predictors in SHIPS and improvements based on data available in the GOES-R era, including improved temporal and spatial resolution and derived products. Time tendencies of satellite predictors and new convective structure predictors based on artificial intelligence analysis will also be examined.