Sarah Chapman, Oscar Guzman, and Haiyan Jiang,
Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL
Abstract
A recent study by Klotzbach et al. (2022) found significant decreasing trends of several global tropical cyclone (TC) activity metrics, including hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) during the past 30 years. ACE is a metric that captures the amount of energy released throughout a TC’s lifetime (accounts for the frequency, intensity, and duration). Klotzbach et al. (2022) attributed these decreasing trends to a La Niña-like base state from 1990 to 2021. An interesting research question arises from this is, how do the TC activity trends vary between different TC-prone basins, and how are they related to the trends of TC’s environmental parameters?
In this study, we plan to answer these questions by examining a 40-year (1980-2022) TC best track data for TC activities and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS, DeMaria and Kaplan 1994, 1999; DeMaria et al. 2005) developmental data for the trends of TC’s environmental parameters. The global TC Best Track data is from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBrTRACS version 4, Knapp et al. 2018). The TC activity metrics to be studied include TC intensity, TC numbers, and ACE. Environmental parameters to be investigated including the sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and total precipitable water, etc. We will separate TCs into six TC-prone basins including north Atlantic (ATL), northeastern & northcentral Pacific (EPA), northwestern Pacific (NWP), northern Indian Ocean (NIO), southern Indian Ocean (SIO), and South Pacific (SPA), and three intensity categories including tropical storms, category 1-2 hurricanes, and category 3-5 hurricanes.
Submission Session/Topic name: Climate Variability and Change in the Tropics
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