Unified Forecast System (UFS)-based Operational Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP)

Regional Hurricane modeling systems developed and implemented into operations at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) are used for tropical cyclone forecast guidance in all ocean basins of the world. A new UFS (Unified Forecast System) -based Hurricane and Analysis Forecast System version 1 (HAFS v1) was implemented at NWS/NCEP operations in June 2023. HAFS is the first UFS community based regional model implemented at NWS/NCEP. Development of HAFS addresses Section 104 (Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program or HFIP) of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017. As an application based on the Unified Forecast System (UFS), HAFS exemplifies streamlining of the model development and transition processes through collaboration between research and operational communities. HAFS applies the latest science innovations and new computational methods developed for hurricane modeling supported by HFIP, hurricane supplementals, and UFS R2O projects.

In this presentation, operational configuration details of HAFS v1 are highlighted along with its performance for the 2023 season in comparison to other dynamical models at NWS/NCEP. Future upgrades and plans for the 2024 season (and beyond) will be discussed.