The Florida Keys Cyclone of November 15-16, 2023: What Kind of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Did It Have?

On 15-16 November, a strong low-pressure area affected the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula with widespread high winds and heavy rains – impacts similar to those observed in tropical cyclones. This storm had at least one characteristic of a tropical cyclone – a meso- to small synoptic scale inner wind and pressure core apparently driven by nearby strong convection. However, on the larger scale the cyclone was associated with a significant frontal system and embedded in a strongly sheared baroclinic environment. This talk examines the evolution and structure of the cyclone based on surface observations, radar, data and satellite imagery at the time. It also discusses the forecast and warning issues associated with such a hybrid system, including issues of inconsistency in the numerical weather prediction models.