Climate Variability and Sea Surface Temperatures in the Intra-Americas Sea

The Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, regions relatively understudied in comparison to the larger Atlantic, considering their importance in moisture transport across the United States, Central and South America. The influence of the IAS on hydroclimate in these regions is substantial and has been connected to various processes including tropical storms, the springtime sea surface temperature anomaly dipole and the Atlantic warm pool. A typical springtime dipole is noted by cooler sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and warmer in the Caribbean. In boreal summer, the Atlantic warm pool is a phenomenon marked by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, critical for hurricane development. This study uses HadISST dataset to examine the variability of the springtime dipole in the IAS and how it impacts the Atlantic warm pool. Results indicate a potential increase in springtime dipole occurrences over the last 150 years. During dipole years, warmer sea surface temperature anomalies dominate the IAS in the summer months through the end of the Atlantic hurricane season. Non-dipole years display the opposite pattern with cooler sea surface temperature anomalies dominating the IAS in the summer and hurricane season. Additionally, the dipole is examined in models and the CoralHydro2k coral proxy datasets. Climate projections indicate an increase in intensity of weather events such as extreme precipitation, drought as well as enhanced Atlantic hurricane seasons, all of which are particularly impactful to coastal communities lacking adaptive and resilient infrastructure in the Intra-Americas Region. Through the use of observations, models and proxy data, a better understanding of the variability of sea surface temperatures in the IAS will help these regions prepare for a changing climate.