Improved “First-Guess” Forecast Guidance for National Hurricane Center Forecasters

Hurricane Specialists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) combine numerical weather prediction output with extensive experience and human analysis to produce deterministic track, intensity, and size (wind radii) forecasts for tropical cyclones. The resulting forecasts have been shown to be as good as or better than the best numerical weather prediction models, in terms of both accuracy and consistency from run to run. While model developers often focus exclusively on forecast accuracy, NHC official forecasts must also maintain continuity from forecast to forecast to maintain public confidence in the forecasts. Recent work at NHC has resulted in objective metrics for consistency that when combined with other objective inputs, can be used to process numerical weather prediction output, similar to the human forecast process. The forecast process at NHC is constrained by time and requires extensive manual effort, which limits the forecasters’ ability to focus on scientific interpretation of guidance as well as to perform hazard communication. These constraints will also make it difficult to expand NHC’s forecast products to additional forecast lead times. We seek to produce a useful “first guess” forecast that will provide NHC forecasters with objective information about the magnitude of forecast changes and accelerate portions of the forecast preparation, allowing them to spend more time during the forecast cycle on hazard communication and collaboration with key partners. This presentation will discuss the development of an improved first-guess forecast and demonstrate initial results.