Exploring the Gaps in Operational Aircraft Reconnaissance Coverage

Aircraft reconnaissance is regularly used to ensure forecasters and numerical models have the most accurate real-time data within and near tropical cyclones (TC). These data provide the basis for the TC structural analyses and short-term predictions, which can shape the public hazard communication, especially during landfalling storms. In addition, in-situ aircraft observations improve dynamical model forecasts which form the basis of NHC track and intensity predictions. However, significant observational gaps remain geographically, temporally, and within the storm itself. Recent examples from Hurricanes Ian (2022) and Otis (2023) demonstrated that a lack of or even a break in reconnaissance missions can lead forecasters and models to miss or considerably underestimate TC intensity, organization and structure, and the extent of associated hazards. This talk will explore where and when we lack data and how it relates to the lifecycle of TCs occurring during the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. Results will contrast the capabilities and availability of satellite observations, further highlighting the need for an enhancement in the aircraft reconnaissance mission scope.