Integration of Model Large-Scale Environmental Diagnostics for Tropical Cyclones into the Enhanced Model Environmental Tools (METplus) Verification System

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasters have long relied on the analysis of the TC large-scale environment as a significant part of their forecast process. The large-scale environment surrounding a TC provides critical information for predicting future track and intensity. The TC environment, and its relationship with TC evolution has been quantified as part of statistical-dynamical guidance for decades, including in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). The large-scale environmental diagnostics are useful in analysis, forecasting, and model evaluation, making it beneficial to convert the diagnostics from the current stand-alone software package to a unified framework. This presentation will discuss the integration of large-scale environmental diagnostics into the enhanced Model Environmental Tools (METplus: https://dtcenter.org/community-code/metplus) verification system. The overall framework, customization options, and output and viewing tools will be presented, as well as results from the 2023 hurricane season.

Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.