Session 10C Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Moderate Shear II

Wednesday, 8 May 2024: 10:45 AM-12:15 PM
Beacon B (Hyatt Regency Long Beach)
Host: 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
CoChair:

Tropical cyclones (TCs) in environments with moderate vertical wind shear exhibit various pathways to intensification and become highly sensitive to the thermodynamic characteristics of the environment. Consequently, there is considerable uncertainty in whether a moderately sheared TC weakens or intensifies through a realignment and/or restructuring process, and forecasting the intensity of such TCs remains a challenge. This session solicits papers pertaining to TC intensity change in moderate vertical wind shear environments. Papers on the following topics are especially encouraged:

- Physical pathways and theoretical frameworks for intensity change in moderate shear;

- Rapid intensification or rapid weakening of moderately sheared TCs;

- Observations and climatological analysis of TCs in moderate shear environments;

- Predictability aspects of intensity change under moderate shear;

- Compound effects of other environmental parameters in moderate shear environments.

Papers:
10:45 AM
10C.1
Observed Characteristics of Weak Tropical Cyclones Evolving Toward Alignment
George R. Alvey III, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, M. S. Fischer, R. F. Rogers, P. D. Reasor, D. S. Nolan, and J. P. Dunion

11:00 AM
10C.2
Aircraft Observations of the Formation of an Aligned Circulation in Weak Tropical Cyclones
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. S. Fischer, G. R. Alvey III, and P. D. Reasor

11:15 AM
10C.3
11:30 AM
10C.4
Balanced Evolution of the Vortex Tilt of Simulated Tropical Cyclones in a Sheard Environment
Xingyang Zhou, Institute of Atmospheric science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Fudan University, Shanghai, Shanghai, China; and L. Wu

11:45 AM
10C.5
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner