Factors Driving Upward Trends in Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rates (Invited Presentation)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes are influenced by both environmental factors and internal storm dynamics. We have developed a machine learning model to predict TC intensity change using the predictors from the National Hurricane Center’s Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) and achieve good performance in simulating the interannual variations of TC intensification rates. Using this model, we decompose the contributions of environmental factors and internal storm structures to the upward trends in TC intensification rates in recent decades. The relative roles of each factor in three ocean basins (North Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific and Western North Pacific) are examined in detail.