Examining Events during Which Simulated Tropical Cyclones Exceed Their Theoretical Maximum Potential Intensification Rate

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are some of the most dangerous weather systems we face on Earth. Given their potentially devastating impacts, improving our understanding of TC behavior is necessary to minimize future casualties and losses. However, the rate at which TCs intensify is not fully understood and difficult to predict. Building on past work, Wang et al. (2021) proposed a new theory for the intensification rate (IR) of a TC that includes a simple formula for a TC’s maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR). While this theory was shown to have considerable merit, simulated TCs can temporarily experience IRs that exceed the predicted MPIR; we refer to these events as super intensification rate events (SIREs). This study uses a 3D cloud resolving model to simulate TCs under various combinations of sea surface temperature (SST) and environmental vertical wind shear. A preliminary survey of major SIREs occurring in the simulations is presented. The structural modification of a TC during an especially interesting SIRE is illustrated. Statistical distributions are shown for some quantities related to a major SIRE, such as its duration and the corresponding intensity change of the TC. The variations of each distribution with SST, environmental vertical wind shear, and TC intensity are also examined. Notably, the mean duration and mean intensity change associated with a major SIRE appear to be more sensitive to changes in SST and TC intensity than to whether the vertical wind shear is relatively low or high.