Understanding the Relationship Between Intensification Timing and Vortex Realignment.

Rapid intensification in tropical cyclones is difficult to forecast. This difficulty has led to research into what drives rapid intensification, such as the reduction of vortex tilt and vortex re-alignment, which may precede or follow the onset of rapid intensification (e.g., Reasor et al. 2004; Alvey and Hazelton 2022; Fischer et al. 2022; DesRosiers et al. 2023).

The current study aims to investigate two recent cases in which intensification occurs prior to and after vortex re-alignment, respectively. Candidate cases, such as Earl (2022), Fiona (2022), Franklin (2023), and Nicholas (2021), will be examined using the HAFS-B model output to examine environmental and tropical cyclone structure parameters, such as shear, moisture, vortex tilt, and vortex size, which could potentially lead to better understanding of different rapid intensification pathways.